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BTC broke out, now keep your eyes on the size! $9500 /$14000Leading up to now: For this we need to zoom out some, we are looking at just over the last two years of price action with 1d candles. In the first wave, we tested the long term ascending trendline after coming down hard from our $21k high to just over $3k. After the first wave crashed, we stuck around the bottom of the long-term ascending trendline for 4/5 months from December 2018 to April 2019 before we finally took off on the second wave which ran to $14k before starting this most recent 6/7 month descending channel of sadness. The descending channel drove the price into the 5 year ascending trendline twice where the second test of support launched BTC on the run we are currently enjoying. It is possible that we could see a similar delay between waves but right now the charts seem to be indicating no such thing. It’s the Size of the wave that counts: Lets talk about the importance of the size of the waves. First wave, $20k, second wave $14k, that’s a $6k reduction. We have some long-term support/resistance coming up at $9500 currently ($4500 reduction from last high). Maybe we only see this wave go to $9500, maybe the waves continue to diminish until BTC is too weak to maintain longterm support or maybe just a large Elliot wave needs to complete before the next big jump. There should be some relief one might have after we break current $9500 resistance but the real sigh of relief will be when wave 3 surpasses the height of wave2 confirming a strengthening trend rather than diminishing. Ultimately if we see BTC top the 20k high of before it would be extremely bullish for the long term charts and making 6 figure BTC extremely likely in the future. Whats next? (higher probability) -We run to $9500 over the next 24-48 hours then pull back off of $9500 and form a nice ascending wedge (green) that runs until late May making a breakout up or down, likely around Mid-April. There is a good chance breaking up out of this wedge could land us into another wedge (Red) between $14k and the 5 year trendline with a break out somewhere around September 2020. -We pull back and ride the top of the previous descending channel down to around $7600 and slowly rise hanging out around the 5 year trendline for a few months like we did after wave2 -We could break right through $9500 and treat it much like we treated $7800, we could run all the way up to $14k in short order. There could be a lot of pressure to stay under $14k especially after such an exhaustive run. This may cause the price action to form a channel between $9600ish and $14k before forming an ascending wedge(red) with the $14k resistance (Wave2 high) and the 5 year trendline. a break upwards from here will be to test the previous ATH, a break down below the 5year trend still would be a big sell signal. -We blow through everything, $9800, $14k, $21k and go on a run making all new highs, never looking back. Also a good chance that 21k may cause us heartache trying to jump it, will look at that more as we near it. Realistically this is a little soon to say where this might go after this breakout, it just got started so I suspect you guys will see a revision after we see where this run starts to consolidate and/or correct. For myself and my risk pallet, I see every touch of the 5 year ascending trendline as a great opportunity to add to long positions and/or pickup long-leveraged positions. Also If we break down (and hold) the 5 year trendline, I would likely pull most all of my assets out of the market and sit on the sidelines for a while. These are my observations as an investor and trader, it is not investment advice, always DYOR .
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EncryptShawn
1
Head and Shoulders This seems to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. It would be smart to wait on this and then short for some good gains.On my last post I was looking at a long position and I was right on the money! Now we are still waiting for this to hit the TP to then take the short position.Shorting around 92.000 would be a good idea. Quote: “The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary.” – Alexander Elder Trader essential from Amazon 1. amzn.to -Tylenol Extra Strength Rapid Release (LOL) 2. amzn.to -Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3. amzn.to -Apple MacBook Pro 4. amzn.to -OLLY Goodbye Stress Gummy, 5. amzn.to - Lenovo Ideacentre AIO 520S 23-Inch Desktop Computer (Intel Core i5-7200U, 16GB DDR4, 1TB HDD, Intel HD Graphics 620, Windows 10), F0CU0001US 6. amzn.to Apple iMac (21.5" Retina 4K display, 3.0GHz quad-core Intel Core i5, 8GB RAM, 1TB) - Silver 7. amzn.to -Dell i5680-7813BLU-PUS Inspiron Gaming PC Desktop 5680, Intel Core i7-8700, 16GB DDR4 Memory, 128GB SSD+2TB SATA HDD, NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1060, Recon Blue, Windows 10 64-bit
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by Red_Rock5
BTC 1Hr - Trad, EMA, BB, VPSV, RSI +Overall Summary: Overall the last 24 hours (15th of January) were bearish and I am neutral for the next 24 hrs. Detailed Summary: This chart uses 1 hour Traditional Candlestick chart, Volume Profile Visible Ranges, Bollinger Bands, 4 EMAs (9/15/21/55), RSI & MACD. Traditional candlesticks charts is the most popular charting pattern. It is great for shorter time frame trading, such as day trading, and for identifying exit/entry for longer term trades. The candlestick patterns are determined by the OHLC (Open High Low Close) unlike Heikin Ashi candlesticks with are ‘averaged out’. This means that there is a lot more price action in the chart and traders can enter/exit trend changes earlier than other more trend based charting styles. During the last day the price has ranged by $150, opening at $3746 and closing at $3644. The price has decreased/consolidated over the period which is a continuation of the long term price trend. The most important charting pattern during this period was the shooting star that occured at 3:00 and the large bearish engulfing candle that occurred at 22:00. Exponential Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Exponential Moving Averages on the hourly time frame. The 55 MA is red, the 21 MA is orange, the 15 MA is yellow and the 9 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish. For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish. It is also important to note that the longer the Exponential Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance. During the last day the price is closest to the 9 Moving Average and during this period it has trended around the 55 Moving Average. The 55 Moving Average is currently acting as resistance while the 55 Moving Average is acting as support. The key Support area is $3300 and key Resistance areas is $3686. I forecast in the next day that price will not test the next resistance area. Bollinger Bands are the two blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the security’s price. The top and bottom are two standard deviations away from the Moving Average. If the market becomes more volatile, the bands widen and vice versa. Historically 90% of the price action occurs with the Bollinger Bands, as the price oscillates around an equilibrium. There it helps us identify where the price is in the oscillating cycle so that we can identify entry/exit points and major price changes (on the 10% chance when price breaks through the Bolling Bands). During the last day the Bollinger Bands have contracted by $136 from $272 to $136. The decrease in the Bollinger Bands width was due to decreased price volatility during the day. The wicks broke through the upper band on 0 hourly candles, lower band on 9 hourly candles and stayed within the bands on 15 hourly candles. I forecast in the next day that the Bollinger Bands will consolidate and overall trend is bearish. Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend. During this period volume has consolidated in convergence with the recent price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is below the 20 MA volume line. I forecast in the next day that the volume will consolidate and this will support a consolidation of price. Volume Profile Session Volume (VPSV) indicator show volume by price as a horizontal histogram for each 24 hour period. This provides additional insight over traditional volume indicators that are only based on time. By clearly seeing what volume occurred at specific price levels, I can more easily identify key areas of S&R. Two key things to identify are the: POC (Point of Control) which is the price level with the highest volume for a specific period, and the VA (Value Area) which is where 70% of the volume occurred. While VAH (Value Area High) and VAL (Value Area Low) are also worth noting. During the period the VPSV POC was at 3725 and the VA occurred between 3753 and 3704. Overall, the volume profile is bearish and is in convergence with recent price action. The RSI is a popular momentum based oscillator that helps us identify what stage in the security’s oscillation cycle it is most likely at. So after identifying the key market trend we can then apply the RSI to forecast future moves in price action (in terms of velocity and magnitude). This indicator is useful determining entry and exit points, for trend traders like myself, it is used on longer time frames as it is much more reliable. Most of the significant price action occurs around the 30 and 70 areas and ideally what we are looking for is divergence between the price action and the RSI. During the period the RSI decreased by 33, from 67 to 34 and it is in convergence with the recent price action. It has demonstrated a bearish failure swing is when the RSI rises above 70 (considered overbought), RSI drops back below 70 then RSI rises slightly but remains below 70 (remains below overbought) and finally RSI drops lower than its previous low. I forecast in the next day that the RSI will increase and this indicates a increase of price. The MACD is a popular trend following momentum indicator that can help identify a security’s momentum, trend direction and duration. is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 MA are equal. The MACD , that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes. During this period the MACD has decreased in convergence with the recent price action. The MACD line crossed below the Signal line at 6:00 which was a bearish trend in convergence with the price action. The MACD line crossed below the Zero line at 22:00 which was a bearish trend in convergence with the price action. The histogram crossed above the Zero line at 6:00 which was a bearish trend in convergence with the price action. I forecast in the next day that the MACD will increase over the next day and this indicates increase of price. References: Candlestick Chart summary - www.investopedia.com Moving Average summary - www.investopedia.com Support and Resistance summary - www.investopedia.com Volume Profiles summary - www.investopedia.com Bollinger Bands summary - www.investopedia.com Fake exchange volume summary - www.blockchaintransparency.org RSI summary - www.investopedia.com MACD concise summary - www.investopedia.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CarbiArbittrage
gbp/usd retracement methodMarket on the 1 day timeframe looks very promising for a resurgence of the pound to go trending up as well due to bank of England raising the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50% which was done to meet inflation rates. Higher interest rate means higher exchange rate cause people are willing to exchange their currency to GBP to add on interest. This also fits with the retracements shown on analysis and every time the market retraced at those moments, it shot up forming a clean candlestick most of the time. I'm hoping it will shoot up one more time so I can set a Buy Stop just roughly 10 pips above current market and ride it through until first resistance. Use 1d for analysis and lower time frames to double check and to initialise and place an order.
Long
by chiefcapitalfx