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XAUUSD | GOLD | DECRYPTERS HI Welcome to Team Decrypters First of keep this in MIND this analysis is on Daily Now for this week :- This Week we have FED meetings + Press conference This Meeting + Press conference will be the Most important Meeting for this whole year in my opinion so There are 2 scenarios 1- Either FED Skip JUNE and Increase Rate in next Month - 2- They incre4ase This month and Keep Higher Rate till first quarter of 2024- Either way they have to Increase Rates as 6 out of 7 of the Fed’s inflation measures are flashing Red Both will push Recession which is Also immanent in my opinion MY PERSONAL OPINION:- we see DXY down till FOMC and than we see RIDE to the Up side In OUR VIP we trade Any thing long / Short what ever Market Gives EITHER WE GO UP AND THAN DOWN LEVELS |OR| WE GO DIRECTLY DOWN FROM THIS RANGE
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DECRYPTERS
QE or QT?Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) went ahead with the 25bps hike that many expected, causing a spike in the U.S. dollar and a temporary halt to the rally that equities and risk-on assets were experiencing. This rate hike has come under scrutiny from market analysts. In the past two weeks since Silicon Valley Bank ( SVB ) and Silvergate Capital collapsed, there has been a multi-billion dollar capital outflow from financial institutions. The primary driver of this depositor flight comes from individuals and asset managers moving capital from low-interest savings accounts to high-interest money markets in the form of treasury bills which pay upwards of 4%. In the week of the collapse of SVB, low-risk investment vehicles that invest money in short-term government and corporate debt saw net inflows of approximately $121 billion. This 25bps hike will increase the yield of newly issued treasury bonds (worsening depositor flight) and cause the value of existing bonds with lower yields to decrease. Ultimately, this initiated the collapse of SVB as the dollar value of the existing treasury bonds that the bank held as collateral fell below legally required levels, resulting in the bank announcing that they needed to raise capital, which culminated in a run on the bank’s reserves. Hence this rate hike further increases systemic risk within the market, displayed by the price of credit default swaps (the cost to insure bondholders against a default) going vertical for many banks within the economy. Consequently, it seems strange to some analysts that the Fed didn’t at least pause rate hikes after the latest FOMC, especially considering Powell stated that he considered pausing in the days leading up to the meeting. After SVB began to unwind, the Fed announced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) in order to try and limit the contagion within the economy. The scheme provides eligible depository institutions with liquidity in return for posting collateral such as under-water treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Some market participants initially interpreted this as the Fed commencing another round of quantitative easing ( QE ); however, the actual mechanism is very important here. QE is the Fed’s way of injecting the most liquidity into the economy. If the Fed were actively engaging in this, the medium-term outlook would become much more bullish. BTFP collateral posted to the Fed, at least for now, must be swapped back to the bank at the end of the term and comes at a cost. So without going deep into the details, the impact on liquidity is quite different from actual QE. In reality, the recent banking crisis and the Fed’s response display that, in the short term, a pivot to accommodative monetary policy is for now ruled out. The BTFP scheme perfectly displays how monetary authorities will utilise all available measures to preserve stability during further tightening, likely meaning that a hard landing is now firmly on the cards. From a technical perspective, the weekly Bitcoin chart looks good. The bullish momentum from MA9 crossing above MA50 has played out as Bitcoin has rallied towards the key psychological resistance of $30K. Bulls will hope for a weekly close above the $29K resistance level, which should ignite the rally to $30K and beyond. Should this bullish momentum break down, the market will likely test the $24 - $25K support range. A fall through this would likely result in a breakdown towards the $21K - $22K supply zone, where there are presumably a lot of unfilled longs that weren’t filled before the current rally. The fact that the relative Strength Index is hovering around overbought levels indicates that the market could be primed for a reversal and supports the bearish scenario. As we advance, the U.S. CPI data release on the 12th of April will have a bearing on short-term market direction. Soft CPI figures will provide risk-on assets such as crypto with bullish momentum while hurting the U.S. Dollar and yields. Again, volatility will be high around this time, so caution should be exercised, most notably in leveraged positions.
by Coinrule
XAUUSD | GOLD | DECRYPTERS | NFP Hi people welcome to Decrypters 1- Expected Butterfly Pattern Last leg to be completed AT RED BOX- 2- Rejection from 0.5 % FIB Expected - 3- LQT EXPECTED AT '1892"- 4- EXPECT PROFIT booking Over all At US-10YR- 5- GOLD Start bouncing From Daily From 200 EMA and on weekly 50 EMA- 6- We Had pitchfork Support + 61 % Fib level there Also to support the bounce - 7- Expect Market balance at 1856 levels ( Buying opportunity if comes here First)- 8- We Also had a Bounce from Ascending channel on DAILY / WEEKLU - 9- Over all 1888-1898 levels are open with extension of 1918 Level- NOTE :- We Expecting CPI to be bullish FOR ASSETS ( ATLEAST NOT BEARISH) Just for the Record 50 BPS IS STILL ON TABLE
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by DECRYPTERS
4
EURAUD: BULLISH EXPANDING 🔺 BIAS: BULLISH 🔺 TECHNICAL PROJECTION: BULLISH 🔺 We have a H4 breakout bullish confirmation, bullish momentum is expected to carry to 1.556 target. AREAS OF INTEREST: H4 time frame, bullish breakout confirmed- will be attempting to join in the "E wave" by break & retest method. FUNDAMENTAL PROJECTION: AUD is weak and will become weaker as it gets weighed down by lower commodity prices. The markets await the upcoming rate decision where there is a possible chance from 25 bps to 50bps on 5th July, which may bring strength to AUD... but until then we will be playing AUD weakness! EUR: As ECB President Lagarde indicated, the ECB would be looking to the CPI data as a guidance to their interest rate decision. A higher than expected CPI data which was revealed on Friday (8.6% Previous: 8.1%) could spur the ECB into a more aggressive policy adjustment which will strengthen EURO.
Long
by maraxrara
2
GBPUSD SHORT: DOVISH BOE M. CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUG CUTIMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" - all of which infer that an August cut is very much on the cards - especially given that the BOE has been relatively neutral as yet, whilst they have increased the offering of interbank funding by a few £100bn, apart from that the BOE is yet to make any moves in conventional policy tools, which member/ market expects the BOE to do e.g. a Bank Rate cut and/or formal QE. I personally am short GBP$ at these levels (see attached posts), and these comments from today have certainly reinforced my position given their dovishness, even more so when combined with yesterdays minutes which said "most MPC members expect to loosen policy in August" and "detailed analysis of all available policy tools is required" - both of which go hand as 1) they want to make sure they analyse the economy properly, which takes time (July too soon) yet all members expect August to be enough time to conclude/ act upon such analysis. Not to mention, given bank forecast a median GBP$ price of somewhere near 1.225, being short in the 1.30+ imo is certainly probabilistically favourable, especially if you are able to execute close to the Post-brexit highs of 1.35 which has held as solid resistance and imo should do for the foreseeable future given we traded to lows of 1.38 before brexit so 1.35 is very expensive post brexit. Further, the median bank forecast was for a 25bps cut in the bank rate in July (with some calling for 40-50bps), so if that was the case in July, given BOE didnt deliver, this only increases the chances of a cut in August which imo will take GBP$ to 1.25xx. USD demand increasing - Federal Funds Rate Implied PDF prices: Also, on the USD side, demand is increasing which compounds the GBP$ short support, as the Fed Funds Rate implied hike probabilities are continuing to steepen. For example, since yesterday, the implied probability of a September/ November hike has increased from 12%/12% to 19.5%/20.8% - with, for the first time, a 50bps hike being priced at 0.4%/0.8% respectively; Decemeber's probability also steepened to its highest level post brexit to 40% from 33.7%, 50bps at 7.5% from 3.4% and 75bps for the first time at 0.3%. This aggressive steepening in the rate/ probability curve is likely a function of the risk-on market we are in (SPX 4 new highs in a row), with 10y rates rallying TNX, averaging +4% every day this week. Further, I think the FOMC speakers comments which have 80% been hawkish this week has also increased confidence. Gov Mark Carney Speech Highlights - Monetary Policy Cannot Do Everything To Counter The Impact Of The Referendum - MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead - BoE July Minutes, ''Broadly Consistent With My Personal View.'' - The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' - Far Too Early To Draw Strong Conclusions On Precise Path Of The UK Economy - UK Economy Is Unlikely To Crash, It Is Likely To Slow - A Sharp Fall In Currency Rate Will Provide A Shot In The Arm To The UK’s Net Exports - More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks - Past Few Weeks Have Generated Considerable Uncertainty Around UK Economy, Policy & Politics - Monetary Policy Should Stand Ready To Move In Either Direction - Brexit Has Increased Materially The Degree Of Uncertainty - Some Of This Uncertainty May Dissipate, But A Good Chunk Is Likely To Linger Over Next 2-Yrs - Uncertainty To Weigh On Domestic Spending By Both Companies & Households For Foreseeable Future - The Amount Of Slack In The UK Economy Is Likely To Steadily Rise
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading