Using 45 degree angles for 2Y yield (or inflation barometer) and stock market (faang). Pretty useful. Bolts show where break downs of inflation are and where inflation is rising. 45 degrees show the strongest trend. You dont even need to use RSI. all must equal
Downward curving spiral channel. Equities crash when we hit the top of the resistance line. Likely stock market crash Q1/Q2 2023 given rate of increase. Short-term consolidation period expected Q2/Q3 '21 before final rip. GG
This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining...
Traders, In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions. However, I spotted something sus on the U.S....
TBT, the Long Rate Fund; Or short TLT fund is showing signs of strength on the MACD and RSI; with divergences. The previous month saw high volume indicating interest around the current price levels. It is sitting at the 200 SMA. Currently much of the market is pricing in rate drops. However, we have have FOMC on May 2nd, and have been hearing roomers of another...
5.00% Target on 2yr Yield using simple trend analysis. The Fed follows the two year, so once it hits 5%, the Fed will also stop tightening.
Bull flag + bullish continuation on the momentum osculators + stocks falling + dollar finding bottom
According to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020. It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue! The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org While...
The 2 year old shows a very clear alignment with growth of NASDAQ 100.
Small exchange Buy 10 year & short 2 year and wait for yield curve to go back to a normal curve where 2 year yield is lower than the 10 year.
Whenever this chart crosses 0 it means the yield curve for the 2 and 10 year bond yields has inverted. Historically a significant economic downturn followed. It's not perfect but nonetheless I wanted to put this out there for feedback. Thanks
Upper trendline projected double-top, providing room for equity melt-up rally. Double top = Monthly bearish div --> crash Top 1: 2.15 Top 2: 2 Bear Market Start: H1 2023 Bear Market End: H2 2024
Couple things to note: 1. When the yield curve hits the bottom trend line, stocks have performed poorly in the following years. 2. When the yield curve is low and near the bottom trend line, the moving average crossover has been a good signal of an impending stock market peak within 5-8 months.
The yield curve struggles to come up for air as it hurdles toward zero. The slope of the trend is clearly decreasing, indicating that the flattening is accelerating. We've tested the lower bound of the Bollinger Band without a relief rally which is a very bearish sign. Also the Kovach Chande indicator is bearish and appears to be increasingly more so. If you...
As investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as...
The spread between the 30 year US treasury bond and the 2 year bill has made new lows as the yield curve in the US continues to flatten. Anticipate a pullback at some point, but the curve will likely continue to flatten as investors price in a rate hike despite dovish comments from Bullard at the Fed. This pullback will be confirmed by a green triangle on the...