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2yr

2Yr Yield creeping up slowly$TNX is closed atm but if the 2yr is an indication it may open higher We re-entered long yield after FED day in DEC. Sold puts on $TYO & bought common Didn't go heavy because Monthly chart is a tad tough. Weekly 2yr trading decently above avg's again So far so good. We were bullish on STOCKS but that was late Oct/Early Nov, then went bearish for a bit, & are now NEUTRAL. EDIT: Keep in mind that in BULL MARKETS items can remain OVERBOUGHT for long periods of time.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
10yr-2yr Inversion VS Stock market bottomThe last two times of market recessions, Dotcom and the Great Recession both times the stock market did not hit bottom until 3yrs after the inversion happened. Meaning we are only 129 days into this one. I would take advantage of this current rally and not get overly long on positions, but sell out of positions into strength. The FED has made it clear there will be more pain ahead, and they will only strengthen their resolve next meeting. Either way, a .50 basis or a .75 move is on the table stocks will not bottom until the inversion starts to un-invert, as proven in the past.
TVC:US10YShort
by Coulisnosaj
2yr & 10yr Bond with M1Nothing to be concerned about here... if you're an ostrich. Inflation spiraling out of control, while bonds reflect the loosest monetary policy possible with a dovish Federal Reserve hand-wringing about tanking the markets. M1 has gone beyond parabolic, practically vertical. The Fed communicated this week that they will try and control future prices but they're not going to do anything to reign in current "transitory" prices. Fed Chair Powell "hopes" history will say the current regime got this under control when replying to Senator Shelby in congressional talks this week... to which Shelby replied their actions to this point indicate otherwise.
TVC:US10Y
by R0MM3LL
SHY - Lock 2Year Bill YieldSeems no one wants to discuss the Short End of the Bond Curve. After performing a 30 Bip Sequence, the Big Move to Consolidation - the Monthly Chart illustrates how NQ Elevator Up can resolve. The Fed Fund Futures were dragged into 2022 for 2/2 Indicated @ 72%. 007s on the Short End, believe it's all good, these will backfill and we'll rally 30 more Bips to Our Favor. Not going to happen, period. Tech, of course, has shrugged off the impending moves by the Federal Preserve. Moving Vertically to mimic the Denials. Made Money is not just to entertain you, but to make you Mad Money. Amazon, Apple, and Starbucks are a "Buy the Dip" - too Big to fail - according to Guyana Punch Distributor Jimmy Jones Crammer. Few appear to remember how Jimmy ended up on CNBC. After losing $220+ Millon in his Tech Fund, but shining it on... he demonstrated he could indeed sell firecrackers for Valentine's day. A huckster of talent, but a shylock nonetheless. ______________________ Here's the real Issue with BUy Side Carnies, what they won't, don't, and will never tell the Hoi Polloi. Short Squeezes create ILL-LIQUIDITY. The Hole in the ground has to fill before the Price can move higher. "Record Highs, for 5 days we are making new Highs" One Problem - Breadth, namely the Markets, although I'd venture to guess this Particular MEdia Outlet needs to have its mouth washed out with Lye. Stocks can be going up, although Short Covering removes Capital from the Markets. It never increases Liquidity, not ever. It persistently reduces it. Selling stops, the first sign. Buy to Close is most often performed on an uptick as Stops are run by FORCE. New HIgh after New HIgh, unfortunately, Equities below their 50SMAs far exceed those above. As Market Breadth declines - higher weightings are always used. Apple a prime example. _______________________ Stagflation assisted by $120 - $150 Billion per month, eases the burden of 14.77% REAL INTEREST RATES. Ease up on Bond Purchases... the Burden takes hold. Retail is calling a Bluff... $30 Trillion in Fiscal Debt is dead ahead, unfortunately again... Ramping up the Inflation to drive the DX lower... Yeah, naw, that effort is failing.
NASDAQ:SHY
by HK_L61
9
Next Fin. Crisis?It's been more than 6 years since the last major financial crisis occured in 2008. If we assume financial crisis come out almost perodically in every 8 - 10 years then I think it's time to start thinking whether we are close to the next one. 10Y US treasury notes have always been preferred investment tool for non-risk takers regardless to the financial environment. But what about 2Yr treasury bonds? Can it tell us tell of something different? So I looked at how the spread between 10Y and 2Y notes changes. I took the difference of 10Y and 2Y note yields (drawn in blue line) and looked how it changes with time. I marked with green circles where the spread is equal to 0 (10Y yield = 2Y yield) First 1990, second (little one) 1998, third 2000, fourth 2007. I'm sure you're very familiar with these years:) Before every major crisis 2Y note yield became equal to 10Y note yield. Why? Because smart money managers see the uncertainty and the approaching crisis in the market and move their money from short term bonds. Up to this point maybe that was what you heard before. But can we predict the next crisis time? So when I drew 2Y note yield (red line), I noticed the 2Y note yields at the time of crisis are decreasing linear starting with 9,55% in 1990 and ending with 4,92% in 2007. (the green descending trend line) This confirms today's ongoing deflationary markets in all over the world. If we assume the trend will continue as it is, 3 - 3,5% would be most probably the next 2Y treasury note yield at the time of the next financial crisis. If we look at the FED rate history, we see the fund rate is pretty similar to the 2Y note yield. So did you recall the FED fund rate projections for the next years?? Most of the FED members project the fund rate will be around 3,5% at the end of 2017. Bingo! And also in 2017 we will have had 9 years after the last financial crisis. Be careful in 2017 if the spread of 10Y and 2Y notes yields close to each other.. www.federalreserve.gov
T
by REDRUNNER73