3-WAVE
BTC Possible bounce at fib level then C wave to 23kBTC can now touch the fib levels below and then bounce to the upside, if the fib levels don't hold, then price may again retest our support down at 19k-18k region, which would be a sign of weakness and the trend may continue to the downside, entering the 17k-16k area. Main targets are 15k-14k, but not excluding even further possible downside to around 10k region which has a slightly lower likelyhood.
Revised count for LUNC/USDTI knew the break was coming but needed it to make its move before I made mine, because i needed something to work with , this count feels much better than the previous count i did on busd, The fact that there was no alteration on the 2 and 4 waves on my previous count has been nagging me for weeks, so I now believe this is the correct count
WTC/USDT Wave CountIt's a bit spikey but looks ok, any downward movement at all invalidates the count as the 4 is sitting right on top of the 1
TLT nearing bottom Still in line with my previous analysis. I approach this from an Elliot Wave perspective with Fibonacci relationship.
To me this looks like a macro ABC with final leg down reaching extremes. We are likely in a bullish divergence territory on a Weekly Chart.
The chart above is Daily for easier wave count to pin point where C might end. The support box is in gray; this is an area where a price could react with a strong bounce or reversal. As you can see we are already there so support could be found very soon.
Another fib support coming up in the 90-96 range where I feel there is a strong possibility for a bottom (not guaranteed, hunting bottoms is a dangerous game).
If we take a trend line in wave C from ii to iv and measure the trajectory of where v should end, it also points at a region of 90-96. If the market presents this opportunity it has a number of supports coming together all in that particular area. This bottom could mark the top in US10Y and other treasury bonds since they move inverse to TLT. Also the dollar index is hinting at a top and pushing extremes so I expect a reversal or a top in Sep-Oct timeframe. The month of September / October (2022) might come with fire works!
Not a financial advice.
Cheers,