I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July,...
Highest yield on a 30-year bond the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction; Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications; Frequency Conducted monthly; Next Release May 11, 2023 Previous Release March 9, 2023 3.88|2.4 FF Notes Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X'...
As you can see for the past 9 years 30 year US government bonds was in positive correlation with S&P. The correlation is not 1:1 but about 80% of the times they move together. Two incidents where they were separated was March 2020 Covid event and the subsequent bull run. Even during most of the massive bull run they moved together but a drop in 30 year yields...
Here is a chart of the 2yr / 5yr /10yr / & 30yr yields The BLUE LINE represents the highest yields from 2018 The WHITE LINE represents the highest yields from 20202
Sh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically crushed. It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4. One by one these are failing. Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound. _____________________________________________________________________________ Short term, we'll...
30-year bond futures is testing Demarks Yearly S1 pivot point. So far this year, DeMarks Yearly pivot(P) to the yearly S1 pivot point.
WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE which broke up and close @ 2.5890 on a weekly basis above the former high @ 2.5160 reached a year ago in March 2021. RSI @ 70.85 is not converging therefore there is a potential BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS ! On the other hand, the LAGGING LINE is far away above the TS, KS and the...
Cup and handle pattern = Bullish signal + Fractal backbone support! Target: Upper Trendline. Upper top consolidation --> Room for Equity melt-up rally. ETA: H1 2023. Recession by Q1 '24 at latest.
Historically in America the interest rate for a 30 year fixed has been in a multi-decade down trend. As of January 2021 the rate for a 30 year fixed dropped to a historical low of around 2.65% and has since reversed in trend. This year we can potentially see rates continue to rise up to 3.75% as we're in secondary uptrend on the line chart. Currently we're at...
WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered three important information : 1) a pullback followed by a nice recovery 2) a weekly closing for the first time just above the clouds but... 3) an hanging man pattern (usually "bearish"" ) and which should be validated or invalidated by the next weekly candle ! The 50 % Fibonacci retracement ƒ 2.0890 % has been...
Here you can see I am a slow and patient bear who ate his oatmeal and slept away Q4 & Q1 For all the stores were bear as well, So I bought moar oatmeal. DXY looks like oatmeal Not that I know anything ser's........ I like oatmeal Me can only buy me oatmeal with DXY Not really feeling like explaining this........I'm sure me shall be shamed for loving me oatmeal...
Admittedly, the above Chart is Richly Busy. The Crux this is the true "Don't Fight The Fed" expression. Long Strong the Final Bond, with this upside breakout. NASDAQ:TLT
These will easily outperform US (and probably global) equities by a very wide margin! (3%-5% annually) - And so will the 10-year Notes, and the T-Bills, and ... Bet on it! (Inflation expectations = waiting for the Tooth Fairy) ... and when the head o JP Morgan Chase says; "I wouldn't touch 30- year treasuries!" ... You know it's time to load up!
Thank you for your shares and likes! Much appreciated! __________________________________________________________________ We have identified the channels which have helped to see trade other markets correlated to the ZB1! US 30 Years Future (Like GOLD for example). See how the market is bouncing around those lines. THE BLACK LINE We have identified probable...
There is a high potential for the 30 year note to fall down on the median line. As you see on the chart , ZB just hit the top and falling down on the median line of the ascending channel.
The whole world was glued to twitter waiting for an update on the trade war from President Trump. However what they received was rather anticlimactic: a tweet about saying we don't need to rush a trade deal, which was later deleted. It is likely the markets will interpret this as a risk-off event, since they were really expecting more clarification. Currently,...
There was a precise and vigorous rejection from the upper parallel of this descending Modified Schiff pitchfork Stop above previous high at 147-00 Enter at 144-25 Take profit at 140-00