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$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard. I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October. Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLT
by benjihyam
49
Btc And 30y Bond auction Highest yield on a 30-year bond the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction; Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications; Frequency Conducted monthly; Next Release May 11, 2023 Previous Release March 9, 2023 3.88|2.4 FF Notes Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X' format - the first number is the highest interest rate of the bonds sold, and the second number is the bid-to-cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted); Why Traders Care Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence; Also Called Treasury Auction; DYOR
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Wakandian
1
30Y US Bonds signal a correction for SPXAs you can see for the past 9 years 30 year US government bonds was in positive correlation with S&P. The correlation is not 1:1 but about 80% of the times they move together. Two incidents where they were separated was March 2020 Covid event and the subsequent bull run. Even during most of the massive bull run they moved together but a drop in 30 year yields translated as smaller corrections for SPX. 30 year yields have always been moving in a range and currently we have reached the top of that range. Based on the previous cycles we can expect 30Y yields to start traveling down towards the bottom of the range while dragging SPX down with it. As we are in a different situation now than 2021 where there was an abundance of liquidity I expect this next cycle of bottoming impacting SPX more than those bullish times. I don't mean that this will be a cataclysmic event that will crash and burn the markets but it will the beginning of a volatile sideways move in markets. And per my previous idea I expect SPX to come down around 3650 or lower during this phase. The economical factors that will be deciding the size of these corrections will be FED's determination in QT and individual company performances.
SP:SPXShort
by Kryptolinks
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically crushed. It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4. One by one these are failing. Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound. _____________________________________________________________________________ Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields. The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments. Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end. Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve. Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon. My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
US 30 YEARS-WEEKLY-UPSIDE BREAKOUT ! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE which broke up and close @ 2.5890 on a weekly basis above the former high @ 2.5160 reached a year ago in March 2021. RSI @ 70.85 is not converging therefore there is a potential BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS ! On the other hand, the LAGGING LINE is far away above the TS, KS and the weekly clouds too which is supportive for further development. Currently above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 2.4130 % of the 3.4650 - 0,71 downside move, Next Fibonacci extension (78.6%) is @ 2.8750 % former congestion seen in 2019, 2018, 2018 and earlier. DAILY (D1) Ongoing (yield) uptrend price action still alive with its first significant support level @ 2.50 (cluster of Tenkan-Sen and ongoing support trend line); below there is 2 levels to look at very carefully : S2 : @ 2.3910 (MBB) S3 : @ 2.3570 (KS) A BREAKOUT OF THE LATTER LEVEL WOULD PUT THE FOCUS TO THE DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (2.25-2.07) On the upside, there is a potential double & triple top in progress, coupled with a potential RSI bearish divergence too. Therefore, ongoing price action and more important, next daily closing level will may be validate or invalidate the potential reversal previously mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) DOUBLE & TRIPLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! Indeed, recent rallies above the 2.64 % level triggered a potential double & triple top which is coupled also with a RSI bearish divergence... The H4 uptrend support line is still alive and in this H4 time frame the TENKAN-SEN @ 2.5720 ahead of the cluster of KIJUN-SEN and MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 2.55 should be seen as the first support area to look at very carefully in this H4 time frame. A failure to hold above 2.55 would put the focus on the H4 clouds support area (2.48-2.41) , 2.4240 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last upside move starting @ 2.0690 towards the high so far @ 2.6440. Below the 50% Fib ret is @ 2.3560 which is also the Kijun-Sen on the 4 hours time frame. 1 HOUR (H1) Wonderful school study case shown on the hourly chart with a DOUBLE TOP in progress (second top higher than the first !) coupled with a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE. TRIGGER LEVEL @ 2.5650. - Target if broken 2.48 which corroborate the previous view expressed on H4 Have a nice trading day. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US30Y
by Ironman8848
Mortgage Rates Back In An Uptrend Trend On 30 Year-Fixed Historically in America the interest rate for a 30 year fixed has been in a multi-decade down trend. As of January 2021 the rate for a 30 year fixed dropped to a historical low of around 2.65% and has since reversed in trend. This year we can potentially see rates continue to rise up to 3.75% as we're in secondary uptrend on the line chart. Currently we're at around 3.45% up 30% from 2.65% we seen last year.
FRED:MORTGAGE30US
by peacefuljustin
US30YEARS-W1/D1-PULLBACK HOLD TOO !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered three important information : 1) a pullback followed by a nice recovery 2) a weekly closing for the first time just above the clouds but... 3) an hanging man pattern (usually "bearish"" ) and which should be validated or invalidated by the next weekly candle ! The 50 % Fibonacci retracement ƒ 2.0890 % has been filled. For the upcoming week, watch the clouds area which was the former resistance and which became now the new support zone; have also a look at the former downtrend line resistance, currently @ 2.00% ahead of the ongoing uptrend line support around 1.88 % which is also by the way the weekly clouds bottom level ! On the upside, a successful capacity to hold above the weekly clouds would open the door for higher levels towards the 61.8% Fib ret @ 2.4140% which was the former congestion top (2.41%-2.51%) reached in March 2021 DAILY (D1) Nice pullback which hold and a long white candle (bullish engulfing pattern) triggered on last Friday with a closing level roughly at the top of the day; nevertheless, as for the 10 years, there is also a small bearish divergence on the RSI and the price action over the coming session (s) should be monitored very closely to check the validation of invalidation of this important information. As for the weekly picture, a daily closing below the 2.00 % area should also be seen as a warning signal for a potential trend reversal. On the upside, a breakout, on a daily closing basis, of the 2.1770 %, (former high of october 8th 2021) would also confirm further upside in the cards towards the 61.8% Fib ret @ 2.41% mentioned in the weekly view. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US30YLong
by Ironman8848
What is your opinion of the current and upcoming trend for BTC?Here you can see I am a slow and patient bear who ate his oatmeal and slept away Q4 & Q1 For all the stores were bear as well, So I bought moar oatmeal. DXY looks like oatmeal Not that I know anything ser's........ I like oatmeal Me can only buy me oatmeal with DXY Not really feeling like explaining this........I'm sure me shall be shamed for loving me oatmeal moar than me bloatmeal. BTC Earth Or Moon? Leave a Comment Below
BNC:BLXShort
by ILL_Midas
1
PLAY IT SHORT ENTRY PROBABILITY |T-BOND FUTURE - ZB1! - 30MNThank you for your shares and likes! Much appreciated! __________________________________________________________________ We have identified the channels which have helped to see trade other markets correlated to the ZB1! US 30 Years Future (Like GOLD for example). See how the market is bouncing around those lines. THE BLACK LINE We have identified probable line illustrating the "what the price should be", The Bottom Black Line. If the Bottom Black Line break, the probability to get profits in the short direction will be amazing. For the recent past history, this Bottom Black Line has seen pullback up. Staying in a constant uptrend overall. THE RED LINE We have identified a Top Red Line which is probably the best place to enter short from. But will the market find enough power to reach the $175 mark? Probability exists since we have seen a super squeeze of seller recently. Now small candle sticks a re running in the upward direction, one after the other like if nothing happened before. Nice 40 to 45 degree angle. No coincidence, the market has closed at the top on the channel. A critical point from which anything can happen. The market could probably break up and test highs or go down staying in the blue channels traced. WHAT TO DO? It is more likely that you make good decision only when the market approaches those Red or Black line. In between, anything can happen for the moment. So 171.1, 172.23 and 175 will possibly be the most important prices. So, probably, only wait and observe for the moment. This is also trading.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
The correlation: Bond yields indicate SPX CORRECTIONUS treasury yields and the S&P 500 have a positive correlation. The two usually move lockstep to a certain degree and when they diverge, they don't stay divergent for too long. This time, however, at the beginning of 2019, the divergence occurred and has continued for nearly 12 months now. The idea behind the correlation is that bond prices are typically inverse to the equity prices, due to the yield of bonds being related to the SPX. From darkest blue to lightest: 30-year yield, 10-year, 5-year. The area at which the divergence began, the S&P 500 gained over 25% while bonds fell about 35%. This leaves us with three alternatives. 1. The S&P 500 corrects 50% to catch down with the bond yields (least likely) 2. Bond Yields for the 30, 10 & 5Year all rally 50% (not likely) 3. The two meet somewhere in the middle. Meaning bond yields rally 15-25% or so, while the S&P 500 drops 10-15%. (a most likely scenario)
SP:SPXEducation
by TRADEPROAcademy
3
Long BONDS? Bond futures strength could spell S&P 500 weaknessThe recent upside in the bond market has been in tandem with the upside in the S&P 500. The move higher in bonds is largely due to the lower rates in monetary policy. Which should not directly affect long-term bonds by much but they have had some effect. Over the past three months, Bonds have gone down while the S&P 500 has made a lot of gains. The 30-year bonds should rebound at the previous broken high which should hold as support. Max, the move may go down to the 50% retrace level based on the Fib retracement before rebounding. Till the retrace opens up we could see more upside in the equity market. The long extended wicks near support suggest the bond buyers coming in a pop above the recent high into all-time highs could crush the S&P 500. There is a chance that the bond market continues to drop through the support levels, the opening upside for the equity market. This is the tail end of bond investments that have grown exponentially over the last year. Correlations in markets are pivotal to identifying the current economic cycle on a longer-term perspective.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by TRADEPROAcademy
Bonds Likely to Close the GapThe whole world was glued to twitter waiting for an update on the trade war from President Trump. However what they received was rather anticlimactic: a tweet about saying we don't need to rush a trade deal, which was later deleted. It is likely the markets will interpret this as a risk-off event, since they were really expecting more clarification. Currently, the Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest momentum has stagnated. Bonds are currently ranging, and are likely to drift upward, testing the upper bound of the range.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by quantguy
Yield Curve Continues to FallAs investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as raising rates (or more hawkish rhetoric) could hurl the yield curve closer to negative territory. We can see the spread has been hugging the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator for some time, which is an extremely bearish sign. Also, the slope of the spread has become increasingly more negative. If you want access to the Kovach Reversals indicator and more, check out quantguy.net.
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy
30 Year, 2 Year Spread Making New LowsThe spread between the 30 year US treasury bond and the 2 year bill has made new lows as the yield curve in the US continues to flatten. Anticipate a pullback at some point, but the curve will likely continue to flatten as investors price in a rate hike despite dovish comments from Bullard at the Fed. This pullback will be confirmed by a green triangle on the Kovach Reversal Indicator. If you're interested in using this indicator, check out quantguy.net.
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy