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30yearbond

$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard. I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October. Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLT
by benjihyam
49
T-Bonds (US 30 yr); Wait for it!If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it! In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in itself, ought to serve as a warning. (Yeah, they are known to be dead wrong, especially when it really matters.) Add in (or don't!) the A.I.+ automation related speculative bonanza about long term deflationary pressures and the case would get even stronger for rates to peak at these levels. Wait for signs of a reversal, though. p.s. The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation! (I.e., T-Bonds alone will not save anyone.)
CBOT:ZB1!
by Nemo_Confidat
Inflation is plateauing and likely to end flat in 2023Inflation is plateauing and likely to end flat in 2023, so what will that impact the markets? Though inflation peaked at 9% last year and has been declining to 6.4%, CPI seems to be plateauing and may close flat in 2023, but this is not good news at all. Why? Because the Fed wanted to see the CPI or inflation coming down to 2% in a sustained manner. Studying across the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-years yield, we are seeing all the 4 yields almost breaking above its October 2022 all time high again. As long as the inflation remain flat at this current level, the Fed will continue its moderate rate hikes. Therefore, we are expecting more volatility ahead with a flat inflation number. This is definitely bad news for the stock investors, but not for the traders. Since 3rd week of 2022, I have exited from my long-term hold for the U.S. stock markets to trading the U.S. indices with much anticipated inflation and volatility. Also, trading into the Micro Yield Futures. Since it is on an uptrend, I prefer to focus mainly on buy on dip strategy. CME Micro Years Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
30Y US Bonds signal a correction for SPXAs you can see for the past 9 years 30 year US government bonds was in positive correlation with S&P. The correlation is not 1:1 but about 80% of the times they move together. Two incidents where they were separated was March 2020 Covid event and the subsequent bull run. Even during most of the massive bull run they moved together but a drop in 30 year yields translated as smaller corrections for SPX. 30 year yields have always been moving in a range and currently we have reached the top of that range. Based on the previous cycles we can expect 30Y yields to start traveling down towards the bottom of the range while dragging SPX down with it. As we are in a different situation now than 2021 where there was an abundance of liquidity I expect this next cycle of bottoming impacting SPX more than those bullish times. I don't mean that this will be a cataclysmic event that will crash and burn the markets but it will the beginning of a volatile sideways move in markets. And per my previous idea I expect SPX to come down around 3650 or lower during this phase. The economical factors that will be deciding the size of these corrections will be FED's determination in QT and individual company performances.
SP:SPXShort
by Kryptolinks
Weekend Update: Bond yields to move higherI received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2 The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure alternates with our previous wave 2 structure. We should have been expecting wave 4 to be deep and quick, were as our wave appears shallow and long. That is precisely what occurred. From here I would expect within the next month to begin to clearly subdivide in our wave 3 of 5 and target yields in the 4.294% to 4.529%. This would be for our wave 3. Upon that happening we'll need a 4 and then the ultimate destination for this structure is in the target box for wave 5. I've enjoyed the ongoing conversations in Trader-World about who is right?...The bond market or the Fed? I don't follow bonds closely, nor have I ever traded them, therefore I don't what constitutes victory for bonds or The Fed. But I will pose this question to those reading this...what does 4.895% yield on the 30y mean? Who wins, Bonds, The Fed, or both? Best to all, Chris
TVC:US30Y
by maikisch
4