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$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard. I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October. Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLT
by benjihyam
49
$TLT bottom. Upside ahead targeting $100+As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming months. I'm not a believer in the rates are going to stay higher for longer narrative. I do think they'll be higher than where we were in 2021, but I do not think they'll stay at 5+%. I think the financial system will end up being in trouble and the only out will be to bring down rates again. I do think that'll play out sometime in the next 6 months.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
1
Using Bond Yield Spread (30y-20y) to Predict FOMCMy approach to learning trading is to consume and apply what I learned in practical experiences. For that I like to study many different indicators and signals. One in particular I was following last week was the Bond Yield Spread, 30Y - 20Y, as an indicator of Fed Tightening and Liquidity Shocks. A Fintwit Market Expert explains it like this: ----- Spreads are explained by interest rates, the slope of yield curve, stock market volatility and the economic environment. Spreads widen when bond traders become less willing to replenish the order book. A significant widening of the already wide spread between the 20Yr and 30Y recently appeared on Nov 24 and, yesterday, proved prescient. This was a reflection of the bond markets' doubt in the Fed’s mantra that inflation would prove transitory. Inversion in and widening of the 20-yr 30-yr spread has been a leading indicator that precedes the Fed’s tightening. ----- This trend of negative spread continued to widen until it hit -0.11 on Dec 2. It's why I posted such a Bearish outlook on Dec 3. Then I noticed before close on Dec 3 the news was far to Bearish and it felt like a trap, so I switched Long EOD Friday before close and started posting Bullish Charts. I added an indicator to this chart at the bottom and you can see the trend continues positive and recently pulled up from the the very critical -0.06 to -0.0.7 as pointed out at the end of Nov. It seems like there is a good support below 4700, so even if we slip below that pivot, there shouldn't be any significant pullbacks this week. Because of this, I will be leaning Long over 4700 and Short Below. Posts are observations only. Not Financial Advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SPYvsGME
2
NQ Short Levels & Short 30Y Bond (ZB1!)A great feature of TradingView is the ability to walk-forward price to see the outcome of our analysis. In this video, I revisit a short idea in the Nasdaq 100 Futures Contract and look at potential support levels now that a minor pullback is underway. I also highlight a new short position in the 30Y Bond (ZB1!). I misspoke when pulling up the interest rate chart and said 10Y rate when I was looking at the 30Y. The trade is in the 30Y Bond. Rates dropped significantly today following the CPI release.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RodCasilli
4
10 Year Treasury Note - ROC's Building againRates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF, Echoed @ the BIS and then it's stepchild the ECB. The Debt can of worms can no longer be kicked down the road. Europe is in the final stages of collapsing under the Existing System. This will spread Cajun style, like a swamp Gator that eats everything that moves in the DEBT SWAMP. Rumors (Credible) of the Federal Reserve accepting Direct Deposits is halting the Primary Dealer network of Banks (First Abusers) who, via Trading Arms and partners such as BlackRock and VanGuard and many other smaller boutiques such as Gelber - have been able to manipulate ALL Markets without consequence... The Federal Government required them to sell their DEBT. This effort is very clearly coming to a decided end. Globally, the entire Financial System and edifice is being dumped on its Head.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
3