USDCAD SHORT ALREADY IN A LONG TERM DOWN TREND AND JUST MISSED THE 38.2 RETRACEMENT ALSO MADE A DOUBLE TOP
38.2
GBPCHF: Retracement Trade on Head and Shoulders!Hey gang! The GBPCHF Head and Shoulders pattern I posted 2-3 weeks ago have broken through!
Wait for a retracement back to the 38.2 level at around 1.42000 before trading.
What I used to determine my action:
-38.2 Fib Level
-Major Resistance Level
-Whole number resistance (1.42000)
-Head and Shoulders Pattern
-Recently reversed uptrend
DXY - US Dollar Index - Long set up Price broke through a pretty strong descending trend line. I'm looking for a possible long position opportunity. Buying around the 94.20/94.30 area at the 38.2 retracement.
Let me know your thoughts on this setup. Thanks!
AB=CD Pattern with massive Feb Confluence 38.2 and ex 1618AB=CD Pattern with massive Feb Confluence 38.2 and ex 1618 at same point with RSI divergence
GERMAN DAX LIKELY TO TEST RECENT LOWS: REVERSED IN KILL ZONEWhile coming in our kill-zone the DAX touched twice the recent 38,2 % Fibonacci Retracment. It is likely to test the lows at around 8850's. (lowest close).
This is just the overall expectation. Now it's our job to find nice risk/reward short entries.
Good luck!
Felix
End of a minor corrective move?Uptrend + possible bullish Bat pattern completing at structure + confluence of 38.2% Fib retracement -> I'm bull again!
usdjpy daily long expecting some buying pressure at 122.00 psychophysical level. break retest continuation patten/Resistance became support. Also in confluence with he 0.382 fib level. Long term target still the same at 130.000
GER30 DAX Fibonaci levels respected on this legJust looking at the last leg down and the pull back on the DAX and I noticed the lovely way the Fibonacci levels have been respected. Current at the 38.2 level. What will we see tomorrow, a continuation up to the 61.8 @11500 or thereabouts? Teh 73 level is something I keep in mind for stop hunters.
GBPAUD 4 HR LONGTEXTBOOK SETUP. PULLBACK TO THE 38.2 FIB WHICH IS IN LINE WITH STRUCTURE LEVEL. AUD IS STILL FUNDAMENTALLY WEAK, THE CURRENCY NEEDS TO GO LOWER TO SPUR GROWTH SO PAIRING IT AGAINST THE POUND IS A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE BECAUSE THE POUND IS THE 2ND STRONGEST CURRENCY AFTER THE DOLLAR. WE'VE HAD A TWEEZER BOTTOM AND SUPPORT FOLLOWED BY A HAMMER REJECTING OFF THIS LEVEL. FIRST TARGET ON THIS PAIR IS AT 1.9800
GBPNZD 4 HOUR SHORTbasic textbook setup. price has retraced into a key resistance level which also has 2 fibs lined up with it aswell (38.2% and 61.8%). double top has now formed and price has bounce off the Resistance forming a pin bar/inverted hammer. Target at the neckline of double top.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR SHORT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH GBP BECAUSE OF THE ELECTION WHICH IS CAUSING THE POUND TO DEPRECIATE. PRICE BROKE OUT OF THE RANGE LAST WEEK AND IT IS NOW LOOKING TO RETEST THE RANGE LEVEL (SUPPORT TURNED RESISTANCE). THIS IS A TEXTBOOK TREND CONTINUATION PATTERN (BREAK,RETEST,CONTINUATION) IF PRICE MANHES TO RETRACE BACK UP TO MY SELL ZONE I ALSO HAVE 2 FIB CONFLUENCES WHICH ARE THE 38.2 AND 50 FIB LEVEL. TARGET BACK DOWN AT SWING LOW WHICH IS ALSO A PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL.(1.46000) ALSO PRICE SEEMS TO BE APPROACHING A DYNAMIC RESISTANCE (20SMA)
An Interesting Proxy On Oil - 6 month UCO Call OptionsHello all,
if you are a bottom picker here is an interesting options play in the energy market on nothing more then a natural 'dead-cat-bounce'. I can make a realistic argument for $20 on UCO. This would be nothing more then a normal 38.2 Fib tag, gap fill and a bfrn tag (markets just love to run to big fat round numbers). I would expect this dead-cat-bounce to occur into a generally friendly time for the energy market (heading into peak summer driving season demand). Additionally, If you believe the oil price was brought down to leverage Russia into peace talks by 'the west' then today's announcement of a cease fire in Ukraine should support the idea of a bottom here too. On top of these arguments, both petro currencies (like the Cdn $) and the oil stock index's are putting in bottoms as well.
So that brings us to the trade. I am certainly not saying bet the farm on this but if you have some extra cash around this isn't a bad idea. For about $55 you can control 100 shares of UCO through to the middle of July, 2015 from $15.00 and higher. Should price move to my target area those options will have an intrinsic value of more than $5.00. Not a bad reward/risk! Indeed, if one were to pick a few up here I believe one could see $1.00 over the course of the next few months. if that should happen I would be inclined to sell half the position and get your original capital back in your hands and create a 'risk free' trade.
So one could take a position here today and instantly put an order to sell half the position at double your purchase price. Should you get filled on the first sale then by all means get your order to sell at $5.00 working on the rest.
glgt all
Brian Beamish
The Rational Investor
www.therationalinvestor.co
GBPUSD 100+PIPS IS FLIRTING This is one of those trades that most persons will love, the type that jump out at you. Price moved last night from the previous high 61.8 retracement and fell exactly to the 1.27 extension. then we are now having a pull back. Measure AB=CD and you will find that price lines up exactly at the 1.618 extension. know this about AB=CD, they always complete, i don't care If persons tell you that's not true, take my word for it and look at my trades for proof, they always complete. 61.8= 1.27 and 38.2 =1.618, so we expect a pull back to the 38.2% of the current low before the AB=CD is completed. As usual, i'd wait for a confirmation, why, because they were AB structures before this one thats pending completion, so i'd wait for confirmation before entering. What i mean by AB structure? Whenever a pattern is pending completion, it usually will find its completion in the 3, 5, or 7th wave. PLEASE NOTE!! WHEN AN AB IS PENDING COMPLETION IT DOES NOT MEAN THE PAIR IS GOING TO RETRACE FURTHER, RATHER IT MEANS THE RETRACEMENT WILL BE SHORTER. SO IN OTHER WORDS, DON'T BE SURPRISE IF YOU SEE A TURN AROUND AT 23.6. THE REASON I HAVE A BIAS TOWARDS THE PRICE GOING TO 38.2, IS SIMPLE THIS, AB=CD, JUST AS BC=a (BC) IN THE FUTURE WHICH WILL ALWAYS PRESENTS ITSELF IN THE FUTURE AT THE 3, 5, OR 7 WAVE. OK I'VE SAID TOO MUCH.
DIVERGENCE IS ON THIS PAIR AND BIASED TOWARDS THE UPSIDE, BUT DIVERGENCE IS NOT THE SHERIFF IN THIS TOWN NOW, SO WE CAN'T BASE OUR DECISION SOLELY ON IT, IT'S OUTGUNNED.
HAVE A GREAT DAY, WISH YOU MUCH SUCCESS. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT I JUST EXPLAINED FEEL FREE TO ASK.
NZDUSD buying dip dipsI'm waiting for a big dip to buy NZDUSD. After falling 140pips from the peak at 0.8830-40, this represents a good opportunity to buy for a bounce.
0.8660-70 is the 38.2% FIB retracement level & weekly S3 pivot support.
Long NZDUSD 0.8660-70
SL 0.8610
TP 0.8840
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www.ForexPositive.com
Twitter @ForexPositive
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BTCe Long Awaited 38.2 Fib Target HitHello All,
after an excruciating past six trading days, BTC shook me out of my short position late last night on what was a classic 'head fake' move. Fearful of a winner turning into a looser, I micro managed myself out of a very respectable position only to watch it shortly thereafter go exactly to the original target (UGH!). While there is nothing wrong with booking a profit (+$8 or about 1.25%) I certainly didn't do myself any favors. Interestingly. this is now 6/6 of late (someone has actually been counting on TradingView....lol) and had I just left the original trade on and stuck to my original r/r model, I would be on cloud 9 this AM. I will take comfort in seeing yet another setup play out to its anticipated targets, I will be cross at myself for not acting in my own best interests. Stick to the plan, take the setups, live with the results...lessons are to be continually learned
