Gaussian channel predicting the cycle bottom?In the previous cycles the exact bottom was one candle before the 200 ma (orange line) crossed up on the median line in the gaussian channel on the 3 day chart. The yellow vertical lines are placed at one candle before the crossing. If we don't reach a new low this cycle, the gaussian channel has predicted the exact cycle bottom a third time.
3day
3D death corss (Bitcoin)3D death cross has occurred exactly as told you guys in the mid of may we can see some volatility now so wait for the 28k support to break, So far it is holding pretty good but tapping so much on to the support makes it weak higher chance of breaking down from the support, if this happens we see some more downside as we have showed the potential target for the bear flag pattern is 19k also we do have 200MA support on the weekly, Which is sitting around 21k.
Time will tell what will happen although IMO it is goin down...
200MA on the 3day held perfectly. Testing 45k again 🐱🏍The 3day chart shows a strong sign of recovery and can be taken as a future outlook of the weekly.
Bullish stuff:
The 200MA of the 3day was held perfectly. No close below it!
We now are within the bull market support band and did not get rejected so far.
The RSI shows a strong healthy rise.
Trading volume is higher compared to the start of 2022.
We are still above the macro support level of 30k.
Bearish stuff:
We did not create higher highs yet and are in a consolidation phase during a down trend.
Technically we are still not above the bull market support band consisting of the 20 week SMA and 21 week EMA.
We believe that the people that hold through these hard times will get rewarded.
What is needed is patience and endurance .
Bitcoin got additional attention during the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
People could use Bitcoin but have trouble withdrawing their fiat currency.
Donations are also made using cryptos which leads to additional attention.
Ukraine legalized cryptos because of that.
The FED started with rate hikes and takes a closer look to cryptos.
This is a novum and it seems that Bitcoin became to big to ban or ignore.
We expect bullish times ahead can't wait for it.
Feel free to comment or ask anything you like.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
Ctumblery
A look into the SPY: Are we sold on a full reversal yet?3Day Chart-
With 1 day left, the shadow of the candle kissed the 50 EMA. Even with a close ABOVE its previous candles close but BELOW its current candle shadow low this should be seen as bearish. This would print a Shooting Star. 444.39 would be the level to watch for this scenario.
3Day Chart
Bulls will want to see a close above the previous candles swing high at 446.46 at a minimum. Best case would be a close above the mid Feb swing high at 448 or better a close above the 50 EMA.
1Day Chart
March 14 22' there was a 50/200 EMA cross under. Since then there has been a bit of a rally. 4 days ago, the Daily candle printed above the 50 EMA and 2 days ago above the 200 EMA. In between a Doji printed, kissing both the 200 and 40 EMA signifying major uncertainty.
1 Day Chart
If the Daily candle prints at or below 445.50(ish) then we could view this as 1 Black Crow. My best gut feel says its this happens, then selling pressure may be more likely than not to continue through Friday.
A note to bulls: this scenario would be OK as long as the .786 Fib is ultimately respected. A healthy .382 is a more likely retracement, but keep in mind the worst case break point at 423.24. Any retracement is fine as long as a HIGHER low is set. Those sweet spots IMO are the above 2 I mentioned.
1 Day Chart
Ultimately, bulls want a close over the 200 EMA and bears under the 200 EMA.
Here is a link to the 1 Week and 1 Month chart, comments below.
Weekly Chart
The SPY weekly candle should close above previous swing high candle body resistance around 449.
Weekly Chart
453 is marked as resistance, as seen created locally in November. Nov-Jan it acted as support, but now broken it is viewed as resistance. This break of support to resistance happened in a breakout(down) of a major ascending level of supported created April 2020 as the market was recovering from the "covid" crash.
Weekly Chart
Best case for bulls: EOW rally to close the current weekly candle above 453.
Best case for bears would be a weekly close with no lower shadow around 440 or a close below the 50 EMA
A close of around 445-446 would print a Doji, meaning indecision in which patience is advised.
Monthly Chart
Best case for bulls is a close above its previous monthly candle high at 451. This would print a Bullish Engulfing candle.
Best case for bears is a close below 423. 423 is a level back in May 21 that acted as resistance and helped create a Doji (indecision). This setup would look similar to a 3 Black Crowes reversal pattern
The market has most certainly shown bullish signs, but IMHO this is a critical juncture that will shows us further signs of market recovery or turmoil.
BTCUSD: Decision Time 2022The markets, while particularly jostled and unstable, are also as equally unsure. We've seen MASSIVE gains for both crypto and the stock market through 2020 and 2021.
But what will happen in 2022? MANY predict a continued downtrend. Some predict a massive crash. Others, fueled by hope, think much higher highs are to be made.
Is inflation bad for markets after all? Will war boost or stunt the market? Can crypto outpace Oil anytime this year? Is it time to buy gold instead? Keep your eyes peeled, friends.
BTCUSD/DXY^2 Repeating a Bearish PatternFor the moment, this is only an early indicator of a potential bearish price movement of BTCUSD. DXY is showing strength, while BTCUSD is also showing some support at levels 38k to 41k USD. However, DXY is outpacing BTCUSD, and because BTCUSD/DXY^2 is showing some signs of weakness, and re-testing historically bearishly on the 3-Day 200 SMA for BTCUSD/DXY^2, it stands to reason that, unfortunately for Bitcoin holders, there is still a chance for a final capitulation before we are able to move higher with strength and conviction.
I hope I'm wrong. I remain neutral, as does this analysis. But it can quickly turn very bearish very quickly (and hopefully we can just sail back on up afterwards). Stay safe, watch the warning signs, and see you guys in 10 years when Bitcoin's at 500k+! <3
No matter what, remember the fundies. Trade your best trades. Hold when you can't perform those perfect trades. And stay safe.
Pump to the big boy shorts?So, sounds a bit fomoish bcs it just pumped a bit, yes it hit a important level, but its not important bcs it did not lose trend, but the upper levels are important, will most likely hit atleast the lower one, Im not sure how tho, will it blast up and hit the upper level then affter retrace that it hits the lower level, or just lower, Im only confident on low timeframe trends, because there are many examples I can see to learn them, high timeframe... this could crash bellow 3k after it hits this, but Im not that sure because as I said, HTF is not the best thing I know, maybe because I love pixel perfect targets, idk
I bring a big warning of potential doomNow I know as much as the next guy. And I do not like to be the bearer of bad news. However, I use a couple of fairly reliable indicators. Vpt volume price trend against fib Bollinger's. and the god mode. And this chart is the 3day chart. I have only witnessed the godmode give a short call on the 3day 4 times since 20k. and the VPT always tells the truth of distribution or accumulation in the end. So trade with caution. The levels in purple are the CPR central pivot range for the monthly levels. notice it is like a mirror. several months up... and now we struggle to hold our level at the end of the month. also notice the newest channel is very thin which suggests breaking... either way. Lets find out if its time or not. However, I have a feeling summer maybe be a bit grizzly. what are your thoughts?
Zoomed out Hey,
This is my Bitcoin view in the longer term. (EW)
I zoomed out to get a better perspective where we could be in the larger picture.
I was able to get a clear count in the bitcoin log scale chart, which makes me believe we still are in a larger big wave 4 correction.
A very complex wave 4 correction but possible as the large wave 2 was pretty simple.
What you see here is the wave 4 still incomplete, my lowest target would be the 0.5 fib level ($1800).
Invalidation level at the top of the big Wave 1.
I know we got the halvening coming up soon, maybe we all expecting to go the moon in 2021 and thats why it wont happen.
Lets see how this ages.
Goodluck yall'
#xauusd #gold - Fighting for another leg up, 3DDue to the high amount of requests for Gold, here are my two cents:
The odds Gold can grow up until $1550 strongly depend on the outcome of this 3D, looking at where this is struggling right now to hold up, the SMA50 (needs a good bounce from here, little sideways possible), nagging on the R2-Yearly Pivot and the Quarterly Pivot. A decline would be rather bearish nature and likely press down to as low as $1350 levels if breaking $1450. Even if this is solving bullish now, there is going to be the risk of the double top formation.
I have marked the important mid - & long term levels for you to watch closely. At the moment, if someone decides to buy, it would be rather allright to secure, if this is not planned as a long term investment. (Around 3%)
Warm regards,
Neru
#bitcoin - 3D E-to-E (end-to-end) #ichimokuGood morning guys,
today we are having a very simple look at what´s been happening without drawing a single line or zone.
Fact 1: We have talked about the bearish descending triangle with the Quarterly Pivot as Support and been saying this has better odds to break down than up and it´s anything else than a bullish formation.
Fact 2: For those who know me well enough: the 3D-interval (my absolute fav) is essential looking at the Ichimoku cloud, Bitcoin has tested the P-Q once more whilst diving into the cloud and failed to bounce, this was the final hint.
Fact 3: The Yearly Pivot plus the support through the cloud has been clear target of this major move.
What happens next?
Assuming we ignore BAKKT, the Yearly Pivot is key, right now we could accumulate here and once more find support exactly at this price level (couple of hundreds of $ swings within). Asking myself how the odds are that we break down further doesn´t make sense right now, also a fact is, it would not be nice if we would as we might see levels as low as 5.4k-4k.
Without reversal signs, this is a an area that does not give away a direction and is, therefore, a classy no-trade-zone.
___________________________________________
Warm regards,
Neru
3daychart H&S pattern fakeout confirmed; must overcome 1day 50maVery positive sign here as we not only were able to crawl back inside the green symmetrical triangle pattern and prove the breakdown of that pattern to be a fakeout we also have managed to do the same with the big red ascending head and shoulders pattern before today's 1 day candle close; essentially confirming it's breakdown to have been a fakeout as well...patterns as massive as these 2 were can fake a lot of people out by closing multiple 1day candles below the trendlines...usually if you see this with no bearish momentum surge to go with it (and in this case bullish divergence was showing),then a fakeout is likely. In this case, it took about 6 1day candles from the time price action broke under the ascending red neckline of the h&s pattern to the time it climbed back above and confirmed the fakeout. The reason it was able to stay below the neckline so long without triggering the breakout is because the H&S pattern is actually most valid as a 3 day chart pattern instead of a 1 day chart pattern. The same appears to be true about the green symmetrical triangle pattern as well. Anyways currently we have just closed another 1 day candle just under the 1 day 50ma but more importantly above the ascending red neckline of the 3day head and shoulders pattern...We retested that neckline a few times before the close as well and was good to see it respond as solid support. As long as the red ascending trendline can maintain that support we should see price action flip the 1 day 50ma back to support as well. We also currently have a potential inverted h&s pattern that could be playing out here as well..if so we may see a slight pullback once we test the thin horizontal yellow line in order to complete a right shoulder...that is currently speculative but something to keep in mind.
3day goldencross & 1day fallingwedge appear to be triggeringfalling wedges target is 11.5k we may reach 11.7k with fomo....bears may try to dump it back down after that and send price action back to retest the top trendline of the purple wedge while simultaneously filling the 8.5k gap...or it could also fall a little further tto test the 3day chart 50ma or 200ma (in orange and blue) for a big support bounce and to trick people into thinking it will be a 3 day goldencross fakeout. If it doesnt dip and can sustain support above 11.1k long enough it could also trigger a 4hr chart double bottom pattern with a breakout target of 13.1k
Bitcoin // Week #31 // CorREKTion continuesHello,
I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend.
Last week, I mentioned a possible bounce at $9700. We wicked down to $9500 and quickly found support at $9700 for only a couple of days. As expected, this level didn't find strong support. My next level of support was between $8985 and $9100. When Bitcoin broke below the $9700 support, we wicked down and bounced from $9111. Really close to my $9100 call, but not exactly $9100. Still, it is worth noting that there is interest at these levels. But not strong enough to personally satisfy a bottom.
Also, in that same post, I mentioned a possible double bottom. I do not believe this is the case anymore - it was a short term call in case we dipped that day or in the next 2 days.
Now, let's jump into this weeks chart.
As we can see below, I have drawn 2 short-term support lines at $9111 - $8400. For obvious reasons, $9111 is a recent support. However, buying interest here seems to be dull. Which is why I believe we will break down below it and find strong support within $9000 and $8400. Zooming out, I have drawn 2 long-term support lines, $9600 (broke below. New resistance) and $7800 (possible support near wave 4 - see below). These support lines are previous support/resistance levels from 2018 (also 2019 mid may-mid june). I am paying very close attention to these support/resistance levels. We are still within the bullish corrective channel and it is possible we stay in it until mid-August. However, because of the recent moves, and the parabola we are currently in, I do not believe that is the case. Bitcoin loves John Wick and it can get violent at any moment.
3 Day Charts:
Continuing my interest in Elliot Wave theory, I now believe that it is possible we violently wick down to $8000 - $7500. $7800-ish is a number I like in this scenario.
in 2017, the corrective ABC pattern played well within the law of the wave 4 support area. Because of this, I am not ruling out the possibility of a deeper corREKTion.
Why am I Long and not Short if we are still correcting? Simple, don't short a bull market. Accumulate.
Please comment and like, thank you. May the force be with you.
- B