04/12/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $40446.2
Last weeks low: $38576.9
Midpoint: $36707.5
Going into the final month of the year BTC continues its march into the 40k region after flipping 38.5k (Midpoint) as new support. After the 5th attempt at flipping the key area bitcoin finally managed to breakthrough and with that a surge towards and beyond 40k soon followed.
42K is a huge HTF level for BTC, major reactions in price movement often start at 42k and so it's prone to volatility. During the 2020-2021 Bullrun price bounced off 42k as resistance on the way up, then it was support on the way down multiple times throughout that cycle. Currently there is a large bearish Orderblock located there and so I would predict that only a huge news event/ ETF approval or the halving itself would push us safely beyond this and claim it as new support.
For now I am very hesitant to open any new longs, either we consolidate at the current level under major resistance in which case this is a great time to take profits and look to make plans to rebuy lower down as price drops off.
For this week I'm looking at where I can get entries going into the new year, the ETF approval is on the horizon along with the halving. Binance has in a way been cleansed and so there really isn't anything holding back a full scale Bullrun.
Half the supply & many times more the demand, thanks to BlackRock and other investment groups. We may only get one or two more opportunities for a great entry on a 2 year hold.
42k
BTC corrected, now where?As I said yesterday in a post, BTC has corrected following a similar pattern from last year as indicated, I think we can expect a little more consolidation before we can see BTC move to $47k. As I said yesterday $42k will create opportunities for entries and thats what I've done. Remember to DCA in the event of a further crash, apply risk management. Short term I'm neutral but I'm long for the next couple days.
Trade safely
BTC descending channel, support @ $42,400 & $37,000
At $58k BTC kicked off its descent and has now proven path in a descending channel with a few prominent support lines on the way down. The width of channel is enough that it supports the idea we will push our way down to major support which for BTC is a trendline that was establish 5 months ago in October 2020 when BTC started its ascent. This is a strong trendline and has a strong likelihood of stopping the descent and helping BTC break out of this descending channel.
BTC Trend since October 2020>
Something else worth mentioning is BTC Price Relative Indicator or "Market Dominance". BTC dominance had been on decline for months and was nearing its 2 year ascending trendline to test its support but stopped shy of it and broke out of the descent where it continued its descent via top of channel but this is an indicator that BTC could see its dominance run soon. What this means is either a hard run that leaves the rest of the market behind or what we typically see is a hard crash for BTC follow by a much much harder crash for the alt market, resulting in BTC gaining market dominance. This chart leaves the feeling we have a pretty big event coming up. Keep an eye on this as well.
BTC Dominance:
Once BTC breaks this descending channel, look for a return to our viral market with sprinkled thrunderstorms of crypto gains across the board.
-----
I havent been posting content here lately as I have been doing so more actively in our discord channel and really I have been focused on building our advanced signalling platform with brute force back testing capablities with some pretty exciting resaults so far. We have been using the data off of our CoinMarketFlow site and expanding that data set to really empower this endeavor, more content to come.
Bitcoin potential rising wedgeIf you look at my previous related idea, Bitcoin broke the first triangle upside and it doesn't seem to be a fakeout at the moment.
Bitcoin could form a potential rising wedge giving an opportunity to play both short and long for swing traders and scalpers or DCA for holders.
It could recover 42K this month and breaking a new ATH around 45K if February performs the same performance as January.
Bitcoin ascending channel on its road to 42KI see an ascending channel from ~14 December, when the price evolves in the bottom of the ascending channel, it pumps slowly but surely and always bounce back from the bottom of the channel.
When the price evolves in the top of the ascending channel, it pumps faster and higher before going back to the middle or the bottom of the channel.
Stimulus check increasing from $600 to $2000
Censorship and massive purge on social networks
Washington and Columbia (South Carolina) under emergency until 24th January
25th amendment rejected
2nd Trump impeachment tentative
Presidential transition the 20th January
Tensions rise as rumours of civil war are intensifying