BTC 4H VS 1D 200 EMAIt's quite a rare occurrence when the 200 EMA finds itself in a very similar position but right now BTC has that exact setup.
On the 4H BTC is fighting the moving average for the 12th time since losing the support level at the beginning in February. At this time the bearish trend channel upper limit also coincides with this level now, IMO a big move is being setup, but the direction is unsure.
On the daily we're seeing the moving average also in line with the trend resistance however the curve itself differs to the 4H in the way that it's levelling out from an uptrend, not levelling out from downtrend.
Bullish scenario - Breaking out above the moving average and trend channel with strength I believe would start to bring buyers back. Now I would not expect buyers to come flooding in at once as many have been burned too many times trying to long a breakout only for it to be a fakeout. I could see many looking for a form of confirmation, be that a retest as new support or a new HH & HL structure.
Bearish scenario - Yet another rejection off this level would be continuation of the downtrend with many adding to their shorts. This to me would be tied to the SPX/ Tradfi movements although those markets are much stronger than this time last week.
In conclusion there is no clear sense of direction just yet but I think it's coming very soon. The chop we are seeing at the moment is a symptom of a lack of confidence and uncertainty in market conditions. Naturally this lends itself to a continuation of the downtrend but all it takes is a catalyst and some big believers to push BTC out above the downtrend to continue the bullrun. I think we get our answer soon.
4h
XAUUSD SHORT
On 4H, I see a strong confirmation of a bearish trend. Price closed magnificently below the prominent low. Now I am waiting for the Sweep of so marked high, which may look more clear and prominent on lower timeframes and I also want to see price filling the FVG on 4h. Then, after getting the strong bearish candle confirmation I will sell.
Also, according to Trumps' tariffs, the US economy should see an incline whilst being opposite for XAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
LITECOIN 4H (LTC)Litecoin is one of the best performing majors in recent weeks and finds itself around the mini range highs in an area of key resistance. The way I'm looking at this chart is in two separate sections of the same mini range, a lower range and upper range with an area of indecision between that separates the two.
Despite how choppy the market has been price can be clearly analyzed in this format:
Lower range - Clear level of support where buyers are stepping into the market aggressively to rebound any sell off and pushing price up further towards the 1D 200 EMA. There is one instance of price sweeping below range low and quickly reclaiming back above, that move has been a catalyst for bullish PA ever since with a strong bullish structure.
Upper range - The top of the upper range has yet to be retested as there is major resistance area position just before it, this bearish orderblock has rejected 4 times and is now being tested for a 5th at time of writing. It is important to note that the 1D 200 EMA is currently at its highest point during this rangebound environment, coupled with higher highs and higher lows on the low time frames, Litecoin is looking good currently.
However, bitcoin is still very much the dominant force in the market, and without bitcoin paving the way I can't see LTC making a breakout move just yet. In order for Litecoin to make a run for the highs I would like to see BTC @ $98,000 with a full reclaim of the weekly midpoint (See weekly outlook).
To conclude, Litcoin is in better shape than most other coins but this rangebound environment should be treated as such until proven otherwise, no action needs to be taken in the main bulk of either the upper or lower range, just the tops and bottoms are worth acting on IMO.
SOL 4H RANGESOLANA is down -40% from making a new ATH to the bottom of the crash wick @ $175. Looking at the chart, unless BTC decides to gap down again from a TA standpoint SOL looks good here.
A triple tap of the bottom with a reclaim of the bullish orderblock that coincides with the golden pocket zone from local LTF high to low, followed by a strong reaction from that zone. Q1 is historically good for altcoins and so the all of these points added together the R:R at this level is good IMO.
Profit taking through the range quarters.
The idea is invalid once price accepts below the triple tap bottom under $170.
FARTCOIN 4H After selling off heavily from the high FARTCOIN is starting look stronger at these areas.
Price has broken out of the diagonal downtrend resistance after sweeping the KEY S/R LEVEL demand zone. Now retesting the breakout for support, if it holds then a move towards the LOCAL HIGH BEARISH OB is the next aim for bulls.
After that a progressive HL & HH structure is needed to work up to the TP targets at significant levels later on.
Overall good R:R at this level from a chart TA perspective, my worry is that currently memecoins are out of favor because of the sell off so keeping an eye on sentiment would be important.
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PEPE Eyes $0.00002000: Bullish Momentum Builds Above!PEPE/USDT 4H Chart Analysis
Equilibrium established: PEPE is stabilizing at $0.00001867 after a bounce from the discount zone, showing signs of bullish momentum supported by RSI.
Current price: $0.00001867.
Key levels:
Support:
POL (Point of Loss): $0.00001700.
POH (Point of Hold): $0.00001750 (key level for continued bullish structure).
Resistance: $0.00002100 (premium zone, key breakout target).
Momentum shift: RSI indicates a bullish reversal, aligning with the recent bounce from the discount zone.
Trade setup:
Entry: Current level ($0.00001867) or on a pullback near $0.00001750 (POH).
Target: $0.00002000 (short-term resistance level).
Stop loss: Below $0.00001700 (POL) to minimize risk.
Risk-to-reward: Favorable setup, especially if price holds above POH.
Confidence level: 7/10 for bullish continuation.
Considerations:
Support test: Ensure price holds above POH ($0.00001750) to validate bullish continuation.
Momentum confirmation: Monitor RSI and volume for sustained upward pressure.
Resistance reaction: Be cautious around $0.00002100; strong resistance could trigger a pullback.
This setup suggests a potential upside to $0.00002000, provided support levels hold. Tight risk management is essential near volatile zones.