4h
#USDJPY [4H] A Tricky one...SAXO:USDJPY Is a tricky pair at the moment. However, i see a potential fall next week after a retest. This pair has made a move of an entire year so far during 1st quarter. Big bias is to the downside back to 102 or something. I tried to anticipate the moves based on supply and demand and the COT report.
#AHMEDMESBAH
NZDCAD THIRD BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVEThe third bullish elliott wave is starting forming from 61,8 fibo retracement of the second wave. Could reach 127.2 extension CB to finish the bullish movement and close the correction of historic price marked as a green line. RSI and CSI normal. TP 127.2 CB Stop 113.2 BC
BTCUSD 4H HEIKEN ASHI REVERSAL STRATEGYn Japanese, Heiken Ashi means “Average Bar” and it represents the average-pace of prices.
The Heiken Ashi candlestick chart can help you to spot both trading periods and ranging periods that you should avoid.
There are two primary trade signals that we can identify through the Heiken Ashi candlestick:
1- Bullish candlesticks with no wicks or very small wicks indicate a strong uptrend and excellent buying opportunities.
2- Small candlestick characterized by a small body and big upper and lower wicks signal a potential reversal.
Use strategy on all markets and time frames.
Step #1: Identify a strong move to the upside.
One of the simple ways that we can use the Heiken Ashi candlesticks is to trade reversal when the candles changed color.
So, the first thing we’re going to look for a bullish trend or a strong move to the upside.
Note* The Heiken Ashi chart tends to give much more extended and smoother runs of bullish and bearish price candles which is because of how the calculation is used to average out the range of the bar.
Step #2: Wait for the Heiken Ashi bar to change color from bullish (green) to bearish (red)
The first sign that the price is about to turn lower is when we see a red Heiken Ashi candle.
In order for the Heiken Ashi bars to change color, there must to be a strong shift in the order flow and this typically translates into a much more reliable signal than we get when typical price candle change color on a normal price chart.
The way we look to use this feature is simply to implement traditional technical analysis to locate potential reversal zones with the Heiken Ashi chart.
We use the price action reading skills as a filter to identify a potential trade and then we use the Heiken Ashi chart as the confirmation to go ahead and execute the trade.
Step #3: The first bearish Heiken Ashi candle needs to have a bigger than average lower wick
Long lower wicks can provide an incredible trading signal, especially when using the Heiken Ashi price chart.
You can also wait until you see a bearish Heiken Ashi candle with no upper wick. However, this second approach will cost you some profits left on the table.
The Heiken Ashi trading strategy satisfies all the trading conditions, which mean that we can move forward and outline what the trigger condition for our entry strategy.
Step #4: Sell at the market at the opening of the next Heiken Ashi candle
Our entry method is very simple.
This is a bullish reversal setup, so we’re looking for buying opportunities once everything is in the right place.
Now we can anticipate that a reversal is put in place, and we can go ahead and buy EUR/USD at the opening of the next Heiken Ashi candle.
Step #5: Hide your protective Stop Loss above the first bearish candle high.
One of the really fantastic things about Heiken Ashi candles and what makes them so great for trading is how we can use them to place our protective stop loss.
Because of the tendency of the candles to display continuation, we can go ahead and be really tight with our stops. We can simply place our stop loss above the signal candle high.
Step #6: Take profit after we get a close above a previous bearish candle.
A good Heiken Ashi trade setup will tend to run for much longer than a usual price action setup. So, when we’re trading with Heiken Ashi candles, we really want to exploit this and keep our trades open for longer than we usually would.
Because we’re using such a tight stop loss, we’re only going to need a small price movement to make a good profit on this trade.
Note** the above was an example of a SELL trade using our Heiken Ashi trading system PDF . Use the same rules for a BUY trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you want to read the complete strategy.
USDCHF CUP AND HANDLE PATTERNThe cup and handle pattern is a bit sharpy, could not work but is a good opportunity. RSI normal, USD in currency strength index is oversold and CHF is on the middle. Stop 786 fibonacci, it has two targets, the first is 0.99, if the price can continue forward and validate the pattern it could reach the 1.055 level as a second target
EUR/CAD 4H SHORTEUR/CAD May fall 50-100 pips
Price is forming a symmetrical triangle and may consolidate further before a breakout. Support at 1.5510 has been broken previously, overall the daily trend is upwards but a recent down trend could take price to further lows.
Intraday - 4H
Trade: Sell
Entry 1.5491
Sell or Below: 1.5510
Target TP: 1.5439 & 1.5352
Pivot and Support 1.5510
Alternative scenario:
Trade: Sell
Bur or Above: 1.5510
Target TP:1.5581 & 1.5669
EURJPY 4H TRIANGLE BREAKOUT TRADESTriangles are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart ).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility ) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the volume settings on the chart – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
USDJPY 4H SAR/MA PULLBACK STRATEGYPrice previous Bearish SAR MA Setup.
1 - SAR above price showing Bearish move.
2 - Green 20 SMA crosses below Red 40 SMA confirming Bearish move.
Now price shows a Bullish Pullback with SAR below the price.
Showing Bullish pullback.
Waiting for a Bearish continuation move.
MA already crossed over showing Bearish bias
ENTER WHEN: SAR closes above price.
TP when SAR closes below price.
Find your own SL.
Rule #1- Apply Parabolic SAR system and Moving Average indicators to chart.
Rule #2- The Parabolic SAR Indicator must change to be above price candle.
Notice how the dots were below the price. The parabolic stop and reversal (SAR) formula showed us that the price stalled out for a few hours and then we are waiting for the dot to appear above the candle.
This is a sign that a reversal may be forming.
Rule #3- Another element that must occur is the moving averages must cross over.
In a short trade, the 20 period moving average will cross and go below the 40 periods moving average.
So now the 20 period moving average is below the 40 period moving average. However, something occurred that is notable. The dot then appeared below the price candle.
Since the moving averages are telling us that a downtrend is most likely going to occur, we will wait until the dot appears again above price candle to validate this reversal and enter a trade.
Rule #4- Parabolic SAR dot must be above price candle AND moving averages cross to where the 20 period MA is below the 40 period MA.
Note** One of these elements may occur before the other. The reversal dot can appear before the MA lines cross. Or the Moving averages can cross before the reversal candle. As long as there are both elements, the entry criteria are met.
Rule #5- Enter The Next Price Candle…
Enter (SELL) the very next price candle after the dot appears above the candle. Waiting for one candle after makes sense because this proves to us that this reversal is strong. The moving averages are supporting the downtrend + the dot is signifying a downtrend.
Rule #6- Stop loss / Take Profit
The stop loss you will place 30-50 pips away from your entry. Always look for prior resistance or support to determine a stop loss. In our example, a stop loss was placed 40 pips from entry.
Your exit criteria are when the 20 and 40-period lines cross over again. OR when the dot reverses appears at the bottom of the candle.
This trade would have been a +203 pip profit using the MA cross exit approach. Not too bad.
Some will get out of the trade when the dot appears below the price candle. If that was the case, in this example, you would have got +32 pips instead. Still not bad, but +203 pips sounds a lot better.
So basically you can use either exit strategy. This trade the downtrend was very strong so we stayed in until the MA lines cross. Determine where you are in a trade. If you are up +100 pips and the dot changes to reversal consider getting out then and taking your profit.
Note** Scalpers should not be using a 30 to 50 pip stop with this strategy. Consider your rules and adjust accordingly. A 5-10 pip stop may be more appropriate on that low of a time frame.
Rules for Long Entry.
Rule #1- Apply indicators to chart
Rule #2- Dot must change to be below price candle. This is a sign that a reversal may be happening.
Rule #3– Another element that must occur is the moving averages must cross over.
In a long trade, the 40 period moving average will cross and go below the 20 period moving average.
Rule #4- Dot must be below price candle AND moving averages cross to where 20 period MA is above 40 period MA.
Note** One of these elements may occur before the other. The reversal dot can appear before the MA lines cross. Or the Moving averages can cross before the reversal candle. As long as we have both elements the entry criteria is met.
Rule #5- Enter Next Price Candle. Enter the very next price candle after the dot appears below candle + MA lines cross and 20 period MA is above 40 period.
Rule #6- Stop loss / Take Profit
The stop loss you will place 30-50 pips away from your entry. Always look for prior resistance or support to determine a stop loss.
GBP/AUD 4H LONGGBP/AUD May rise 100+pips
Insight: Price moving in an ascending channel just below resistance at 2.0355 Price is likely to continue upwards and hit resistance before reversing to support at 2.0163
Intraday - 4H
Trade: Buy
Entry
Buy or Above 2.0259
Target TP: 2.0355 & 2.0646
Pivot and Support 2.0163
Alternative scenario:
Trade: Sell
Buy or Above: 2.0163
Target TP: 2.0044 & 1.9948