4h
BYBIT BTCUSD 4H Automated StrategyHi guys, here's a new strategy for BYBIT:BTCUSD in 4h (240) timeframe. Long and Shorts.
To create this setup I backtested the configuration on one year data (2019 to today).
The goal was to make a solid Swing Trading Strategy which catches major moves in the market, with a relatively low risk.
To achieve this the idea is to use a Trailing Stop Loss AND Take Profit. I know Bybit doesn't allow such features but my indicator has it in its body.
The Long Take Profit starts at 30% which is 3 times higher than the Short one, because that's how Bitcoin is: its bull rallies tend to be stronger than the bears.
For the entries, I used oversold and overbougth reversing RSI in order to capture tops and bottoms.
RSI length of 7 with a lookback of 125 bars to get the highest/lowest point.
I filtered the bad entries using Tilson T3 trend line with a length of 36 days.
I hope you find the strategy interesting!
For those willing to automate or backtest using my private indicator, use the links below to get it.
Here is the configuration:
To create the alerts, use the regular 'LONG ENTRY' and 'SHORT ENTRY' for the entries and 'ALL EXIT' for exiting both kind of positions.
ETHUSD 4H EMA STRATEGYStep #1: Plot on your chart the 20 and 50 EMA
The first step is to properly set up our charts with the right moving averages. We can identify the EMA crossover at the later stage. The exponential moving average strategy uses the 20 and 50 periods EMA.
Most standard trading platforms come with default moving average indicators. It should not be a problem to locate the EMA either on your MT4 platform or Tradingview.
Step #2: Wait for the EMA crossover and for the price to trade below the 20 and 50 EMA.
The second rule of this moving average strategy is the need for the price to trade below both 20 and 50 EMA. Secondly, we need to wait for the EMA crossover, which will add weight to the bearish case.
We refer to the EMA crossover for a sell trade when the 20-EMA crosses below the 50-EMA.
By looking at the EMA crossover, we create an automatic buy and sell signals.
Since the market is prone to false breakouts, we need more evidence than a simple EMA crossover. At this stage, we don’t know if the bearish sentiment is strong enough to push the price further after we sell to make a profit.
To avoid the false breakout, we added a new confluence to support our view. This brings us to the next step of the strategy.
Step #3: Because the market goes down much faster, we sell on the 1st retest of the zone between 20 and 50. After the EMA crossover happened.
On a BUY trade wait for the zone between 20 and 50 EMA to be tested at least twice, then look for selling opportunities.
The conviction behind this moving average strategy relies on multiple factors. After the EMA crossover happened, we need to exercise more patience. We will wait for two successive and successful retests of the zone between the 20 and 50 EMA.
The two successful retests of the zone between 20 and 50 EMA give the market enough time to develop a trend.
Never forget that no price is too high to buy in trading. And no price is too low to sell.
Note* When we refer to the “zone between 20 and 50EMA,” we actually don’t mean that the price needs to trade in the space between the two moving averages.
We just wanted to cover the whole price spectrum between the two EMAs. This is because the price will only briefly touch the shorter moving average (20-EMA). But this is still a successful retest.
Now, we still need to define where exactly we are going to sell. This brings us to the next step of the strategy.
Step #4: Sell at the market when we retest the zone between 20 and 50 EMA for the third time.
If the price successfully retests the zone between 20 and 50 EMA for the third time, we go ahead and sell at the market price. We now have enough evidence that the bearish momentum is strong to continue pushing this market lower.
Step #5: Find your own SL & TP or
Place the protective Stop Loss 20 pips above the 50 EMA
After the EMA crossover happened, and after we had two successive retests, we know the trend is down. As long as we trade below both exponential moving averages the trend remains intact.
In this regard, we place our protective stop loss 20 pips above the 50 EMA. We added a buffer of 20 pips because we understand we’re not living in a perfect world. The market is prone to do false breakouts.
Step #6: Take Profit once we break and close above the 50-EMA
In this particular case, we don't use the same exit technique as our entry technique, which was based on the EMA crossover.
If we waited for the EMA crossover to happen on the other side, we would have given back some of the potential profits. We need to consider the fact that the exponential moving averages are a lagging indicator.
The exponential moving average formula used to plot our EMAs allow us to still take profits right at the time the market is about to reverse.
Note** The above was an example of a SELL trade. Use the same rules – but in reverse – for a BUY trade. However, because the market goes down much faster, we sell on the 1st retest of the zone between 20 and 50. After the EMA crossover happened.
Summary
The exponential moving average strategy is a classic example of how to construct a simple EMA crossover system. With this exponential moving average system, we’re not trying to predict the market. We're trying to react to the current market condition, which is a much better way to trade.
The advantage of our trading strategy stands in the exponential moving average formula. It plots a much smoother EMA that gives better entries and exits.
XAU/USD FORECAST NEXT WEEKXAU's supply increased since higher support formed.
XAU in a fibonacci support (BUY ZONE).
Valid breakout at fibo lvl 0.5 will lead xau to lvl 0.618
Correction at lvl 0.618 and breakout will lead xau to lvl 0.786 or higher (lvl 1.0)
Close position when market closing at December 27, 2019
Hold position and SL+ if fibo lvl 0.618 has a valid breakout
#bitcoin - 240 trendline to break?Good morning and hope everyone had very wonderful and merry Christmas!
I am back to business now and hope we all can start the year 2020 with some great trades in a couple of days.
Let´s have a quick look at the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin, where we can see a rather clear bounce off the Weekly Pivot and key-level support.
To reach the $7.6k again, we need to break this currently disturbing trendline on 4h. (White, dotted)
As usual I have marked all levels for you, that can turn the picture and initiate short-termed trades / scalps.
Remember: Don´t predict, make plans. Don´t assume, react.
Happy trading and have a nice weekend!
(Sorry been painting this chart yesterday, so my long-scalp is already closed since an hour)
______________
Neru
ATR MONEY MANAGEMENT FOR GBPAUD & EURUSD 4H & 1DUsing a set amount for SL and TP for different pairs and time frames is not effective money management.
Using the ATR for a specific pair and time frame lets you custom yur SL & TP for what that pair actually moves.
ATR 1D takes the last 14 candles and adds up then up together and then divides that figure by 14.
Now you have an average of how much that pair moves in a day.
GBPAUD 1D ATR moves 133 pips
GBPAUD 4H ATR moves 47 pips
EURUSD 1D ATR moves 42 pips
EURUSD 4H ATR moves 15,6 pips
This helps me determine a more accurate setting for my SL and TP for the pair I am trading and the time frame I am using.
Interesting Bitcoin Pattern on the 4hWelcome back traders! Bitcoin just closed its fourth green candle in a row on the 4h, which makes one wonder how often that happens. Although four candles in a row is rather common with Bitcoin, it turns out that five has been considerably rarer over the last 6 months. It appears that we have been seeing a series of 1-4 sets of 5+ sequential green candles within an approximate 7 day time frame every 1.5-2 months. We have seen these profits extend as long as 10 candles in a row. Here is where we are at currently, along with the statistics from these previous profits. It is noteworthy that I measured on the open/closes, and that these figures are in USD. For instances where we saw a sequence of green candles greater than five in a row, the end of said sequence has been measured out for you as well, separated by a semicolon.
TOW: +$228.92 +3.11% over about 17h
10/25: +$1,212.85+16.23% over 20h; +$2,188.13+29.47% over 28h
09/07: +$194.39 +1.89% over 20h
09/06: +$350.60 +3.33% over 20h
09/02: +$194.89 +2.03% over 20h; +841.59 +8.79% over 40h
07/02: +$1,478.23 +15.03% over 20h
06/26: +$1,284.12 +11.32% over 20h; +2,522.91 +22.25% over 28h
After seeing figures like these, one cannot help but wonder if this pattern will continue. Will we see another sequential set of 5 green candles? Will the current set extend further? Will Bitcoin break the pattern all together? We will see.
Disclaimer: This is NOT trading advice! These are merely my opinions that I have posted for educational purposes ONLY. Trading comes with great risk, which should be managed carefully. You should never trade anything more than you are willing to lose. I hope you all kill it, but I am not responsible for any financial loss or damages. Thanks for reading!
BTC/USD
Left Weekly Chart, Right 4H.
Since the penultimate week of September we have had the confirmation of the downward trend (in weekly chart but previously we saw that in August it lost strength with that lower maximum) which reached the first floor of the 6800, but before it bounced remarkably (with fury) to the downtrend line (remember that day that rose> 30%?). Now, he finally relied on the exponential moving average of 100 periods (weekly) so that it gives him a floor for short-term rebound. We must wait for a confirmation of the breakdown of the long-term bearish line to think about a change in trend, for now only rebounds (juicy, but high risk to be against trend)
LONG - DGD - Trading OpportunityRetest of the bottom of a flat cloud along with the MA200 on the 4h chart, volume has slowed down, so a bounce is probably coming.
Entry: 0.001562
Target 1: 0.001644
Target 2: 0.001723
Target 3: 0.001912
SL: 0.001515
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AUDUSD 4H AROON PULLBACKS & TREND TRADING STRATEGY#3 Aroon Pullback & Trend Trading Strategy
The Aroon-Up continuous reading close to the 100 level is an indication of a very strong trend. However, at some point in time one or two trade scenarios can happen:
To expect a trend reversal
Or, to expect a pullback
The Aroon interpretation of this type of reading suggests that we’ve been forming these higher highs for a very long period of time. For Aroon-Down we would be forming lower lows.
Often times these excessive readings on the Aroon oscillator signals the presence of a strong trend. However, if you’re looking to just scalp the market, you can exit your trade as soon as the Aroon-Up crosses below the centerline.
But, we’re looking to trade with the trend.
And, we have developed a proven way to differentiate between a pullback and a full reversal.
We call it the law of effort vs. result.
The effort is the activity measured by the Aroon lines (in our case Aroon-Up). And, the result is the activity measured by the price action. The theory is that if the Aroon-UP resets itself by moving away from the 100 readings and going to 0 readings, the price should follow the lead of the Aroon-Up reading.
We would expect the effort put to translate into lower prices. If it does not, and we see only a slight change in the price, we know the uptrend is very strong.
This is how you can catch pullbacks with Aroon and trend trading.
We combined the Aroon trend strength strategy and Aroon pullback trading strategy into one big market edge.
EURUSD 4H AROON TREND STRENGTH STRATEGY#2 Aroon Trend Strength Strategy
The underlying strength of the trend can be revealed through the Aroon lines.
After we reach the 100 level sometimes we’re starting to get periods of little changes.
The Aroon UP will simply hang, kind of like reaching a plateau.
This is the same kind of activity that can be found when a traditional oscillator reaches overbought readings. And, it stays in overbought reading for a good amount of time.
The Aroon-Up continuous reading close to the 100 level is an indication of a very strong trend. However, at some point in time one or two trade scenarios can happen:
To expect a trend reversal
Or, to expect a pullback
EURJPY 4H AROON BREAKOUT TRADING STRATEGY#1 Aroon Breakout Trading Strategy
How to spot consolidation and trade breakouts with Aroon?
When Aroon Up and Aroon Down lines are parallel to each other it’s a signal that
the price is consolidating. The Aroon interpretation is that no new highs or lows are made during the default period.
You have two options to trade consolidations.
Wait for the breakout to happen and take the trade in the direction of the breakout.
Or, wait for the Aroon crossover followed by a centerline cross to add more confluence for the direction of the trade.
More often these Aroon signals will happen before the actual breakout.
So, you basically anticipate the breakout.
This is like front running all market participants.
You get to enter a trade before anyone else.