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4h200ema

THE OPEN NETWORK (TON 4H) The Open Network (TON) is designed as a distributed supercomputer, or “superserver,” intended to provide a variety of products and services to contribute to the development of the decentralized vision for the new internet. A decentralized and open internet, created by the community using a technology designed by Telegram. With an increasing TVL and a growing ecosystem the future looks good for TON. The TON chart is a very interesting one. Over the last few month it has performed very well despite the overall market conditions. A near 300% increase since FEB compared to 45% for BTC, and has maintained most of its gains when compared to other altcoins. The TONBTC chart is one of the strongest out there, massively outperforming BTC in the recent months to maintain a bullish trend. Both BTC & USDT pairs are above the 4H 200 EMA. CERTIK top 10 on every category ( Fundamental 80, Operational 92.19, Governance 94.73, Market 95.94, Community 95.38, Code 97.31). My trade idea based on these points is simple: - Flipping the 4H 200 EMA as support. - Flipping the range MIDPOINT as support. - Respecting the diagonal support trendline. - After breaking out of the bearish trendline, now retesting it as support. -The STOP LOSS comes into play once all of the above areas of support and confluence are broken, the trade is obviously invalid at this level once losing market structure, range midpoint & Key S/R level. The overall trade R:R I feel is good at this point purely because of the clear support areas at this level. I think a lot of this trade will require BTC to behave and continue its recovery, it may be bearish for the BTC pair but not the Stable pair.
by ProR35
06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58 Last weeks low: $56,573.01 Midpoint: $60,657.29 As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now. From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally. We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows. For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.
by ProR35
15/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $72799.81 Last weeks low: $66731.50 Midpoint: $60663.19 BTC HALVING WEEK! A lot happened last week in the world of crypto, We saw our first prolonged sell off that led to BTC losing the 4H 200EMA support line, and reaching a weekly low of $60,600 . What caused this drop? In my opinion and it's easy to say in hindsight, it's been a long time coming with no clear pullback since the beginning of February. BTC's price has nearly doubled since then and with the rally exhausted a correction is healthy. It's important to back up how a trader feels anecdotally with TA and data: - In terms of TA and indicators, The 1D RSI has been on overbought for weeks and also provided a bearish divergence in mid march when we made a new ATH. - The fear and greed index is a great tool to use as confluence with other technical indicators, used in conjunction with RSI for example we can tell if BTC has anymore room to grow during this rally or we need a pullback to refuel. In this case, the fear and greed index has been above 70 since the beginning of February, peaking at 90 which historically shows a local top. FA and Geo-Political influences: - The Halving takes place this week, in the past we do usually get a sell off pre-halving, 20-30% drop's are also common during bullruns so this isn't too much of a surprise. - Geo-political escalations can cause uncertainty in the market, The COVID crash comes to mind where we have a capitulation event, I don't see this pullback as anything near the COVID crash severity, however, with conflict growing in the Middle-East it is possible risk-on assets such as BTC can suffer as investors become cautious and defensive. For this week I will be keeping a close eye on BTC reclaiming 4H 200EMA, if that is possible I believe the alt market can begin to recover, until then I do think the market will still be cautious. Flip the MIDPOINT and make it support then we're risk on, rejects and we're still playing it safe.
by ProR35
08/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71365.43 Last weeks low: $67932.12 Midpoint: $64498.81 Trading can be a very complex and difficult profession to be profitable, however it can often be made more simple. The 4H 200EMA can be used to indicate the direction of the market, for 2 months now BTC has reliably been bouncing off the 4H 200EMA making it great support and an ideal position to enter a LONG position. Last week we saw BTC fall as the monthly candle closed which ended the first quarter of the year. Then after reacting positively off the key moving average priced rallied back towards the '21 ATH level of 69K which is HTF support and got back above it. In addition to reclaiming a key level, funding has cooled off and looks much healthier, the halving is less than two weeks away , Greyscale continue to sell but they are slowing down. All signs are bullish for this week and the first few hours of trading have shown it as we blast towards 73K. For this week I am going to continue to build on positions made last week during the dip while keeping and eye on BTC targeting ATH, I believe the conditions are now right to make a run for new highs. BRC20 tokens could be worth keeping an eye on as BTC looks strong as well as RWA's.
by ProR35
26/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $52994.8 Last weeks low: $51757.7 Midpoint: $50520.6 Another big week in the world of crypto! As predicted BTC has been ranging consistently between the local high of 53k and the support of 50k . Since Bitcoin has been moving sideways we have seen profits rotating into ETH sending it above 3K and the broader altcoin market. We see this regularly in market cycles as capital trickles down the market cap leader board. Now it seems the ETH/BTC pair is looking more bullish we could potentially see further chop for BTC as it builds a base for the next leg and allow alts to play catch up for a short time. This week I believe there may be some buying opportunities as some of the indicators reset and the key moving averages help to support price, the 4H 200EMA being the key one for altcoins. Bitcoin remains bullish over the 48K level, under that and I think we see a flush/ deleveraging event going into the halving which is less than 2 months away now. We have seen a few times recently just how quickly the market panics when BTC moves even a few % in the negative direction. Exercising caution and protecting funds are so important as the Bullrun is just beginning.
by ProR35
APTOS TOKEN UNLOCKAPT has a token unlock fast approaching, 0.45% of the total supply (4.5m APT) is to be unlocked at 0.5:30 UTC on 12th June 2023. Here are my thoughts going into this event, how I feel the market will react as well as key areas to look out for. Firstly looking back to the latest APT token unlock back in January. We saw initial sell side pressure as new tokens flood the market, a gradual decline in price throughout the day ending in a -9% drawdown. However the days that followed were very bullish, with APT climbing approximately 40% the following week post unlock. This is not unnatural price movement during an unlock event, so although not guaranteed, we can assume similar will happen this time too. As the chart shows price is currently following a triangle pattern capped by a local high of $9.00 that is being tested as I write this post. Just above is a bearish orderblock created by a price action imbalance and happens to create a good midpoint for the short term range we find ourselves in. This area will be a large obstacle for APT and in my opinion will cap off the short term rally we have had going into the unlock. Then as we approach June 12th, price sells off temporarily due to high sell side pressure of a large influx of new coins. Before buyers react and look to attack that midpoint once more with new buyers that happily bought lower during the unlock event, perhaps using the 4H 200ema as new support that has now upturned and looking bullish. These are just my thoughts on the upcoming event, in reality nobody knows what the future holds however the past can be used to learn from. DYOR NFA
by ProR35
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