4hchart
AUDUSD long IdeaHi traders,
AUDUSD is struggling at a strong support level, this give us a great trade idea to go long and take some pips
on this pair with a small risk.
I wish you good trading week.
GBPUSD short Trade IdeaHello traders,
on GBPUSD we see now a perfect rising wedge on the 4h chart with the top on the resistance
at the sell zone. This give us a great trade idea to go short with a small risk.
On the higher timedrame like daily and weekly we are in a bearish markek!
So if the price will break out to the downside of the rising wedge it will give us a confirmation to go short
down to the bottom of the rising wedge.
Be careful on January the 11th, if the UK parlaiment vote about the Brexit deal.
Remember if a trade have make the way of 30 Pips in our direction then set your stop to the entry point
and let the trade risk free run.
I wish you a good trading week.
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 132)Disclaimer: I just returned from my good friends birthday party and am well above the legal limit.
I have been drinking and my analysis should be taken with a grain of salt. Long story short - resistance at $6,725 has failed to push the price below $6,390 and we are primed for another $750 - $1,000 pump.
Short story long, there is a lot of resistance built up but it isn’t enough at this level. We are too far oversold on the higher time frames to continue dropping further. There is a C-Clamp on the daily and 3 day chart that needs to be rectified and we are too far below the 50 & 200 period MA’s to sustain this drop.
A pump to $7,500 is expecting but it is not something to bet on. We are deep in the trenches of a bear market and preparing for a short sale entry should be the priority. As outlined in the last few posts building at short at or above $7,500 is very attractive.
To make up for the short post see my checklist below:
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,508 R: $6,620
BTCUSDSHORTS: turning s into r. Still inside triangle.
Funding Rates: 0.01%
EMA’s (12 & 26): 1d: posturing for bullish cross 4h: crossed at $6K , flattening out and could posture down soon
MA crossovers: bearish
Candlestick analysis: tweezer bottom on daily, and higher lows. Looks like it is cupping around bearish spinning top.
Chart Patterns: head and shoulders could be forming
Ichimoku Cloud: tenkan resistance on 4h. At cloud resistance on 12h. C clamps on daily and 3d.
TD Sequential: 3d: Green 2 1d: Green 1
Visible Range: Mad resistance and unfilled gap at $5,000
50 & 200 MA’s: below 50 & 200 and both are posturing down
BTC Price Spreadsheet:
Bollinger Bands: 1d: consolidating above MA 3d: bouncing off bottom band 1w: bouncing off bottom band
Trendline: waiting slightly under $5k
Fractals: up: $6,800 down: $5,819
On Balance Volume: bear divs w lower high and lower low vs tweezer. Bouncing on weekly
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI < 50 Stoch overbought
Yesterday’s analysis: TD 8, weekly dragonfly, bitfinex channel, visible range
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 127)Yesterday we looked at the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart and I expected that to provide the support needed to break through the downtrend line that started on 5/5. We did end up breaking the trend line and now I expect a sustained rally for the next 1-2 weeks.
We have a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s for the following time periods: 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, and 6h.
The EMA’s are posturing for a crossover on the 12 hour chart and we are currently testing the 26 EMA on the daily chart for resistance. If we range in between the 12 & 26 EMA’s on the daily chart before getting a crossover then a strong rally would be expected to follow.
The 50 period MA is starting to posture upwards on the 4 hour chart and indicates that a crossover with the 200 period MA is likely in the near future.
We just got a tweezer top on the 4 hour chart combined with a bearish spinning top . That won’t be nearly as powerful as the tweezer on the weekly chart but it could be an indication that this current rally has come to an end.
If we are unable to rally past $6,800 resistance over the next couple days and we create a lower low below $6,275 then I will likely be opening a short immediately.
In the post from yesterday I was expecting a bounce to $7,275 and I still feel good about that projection. Nevertheless I am sitting on my hands and waiting for further development. I remain firmly bearish for the rest of 2018 and would need a perfected setup in order to take on a bullish entry in this market (such as buying LTC at $50).
The Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart shows the next levels of resistance at $7,879 ( Kijun-Sen ) and $8,094 (Cloud retest). If we do rally back to those prices then I would be viewing it as a high probability short and opening a large position.
Inexperienced traders will be running around like a chicken with it’s head cut off in this market. Do not let that happen to you. Have a plan, then patiently execute it with confidence. Have a backup plan and always be looking at the market from both sides. If you are feeling emotional then take a break and use smaller position sizing next time.
If you want to open a long right now, then why didn’t you do it at $5,800 - $6,000? It's because you don't have enough confidence in your position and are following instead of preparing. If you want to open a short right now I would recommend waiting patiently because this bounce still has plenty of room to go.
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 125)Yesterday we identified a bear flag (red triangle) and adjusted the stop losses based on Bill Williams Fractals from the daily chart. The flag failed to confirm with a breakdown below $5,776. Instead we got a double bottom that led to my stops being triggered on BTC:USD and ETH:USD.
Yesterday was a great example of why I have been saying that shorting alts vs BTC is the safest bet. When BTC pumps in a bear market alts often FOMO back into it and/or have trouble keeping pace. I set a tight stop loss on my ETH:BTC short at 0.0731 which will ensure that position is profitable. That stop has not been triggered even with all of the volatility from yesterday. Trading is very stressful and I like to detach from the markets after getting stopped out. Today I played in a golf tournament and went out for Mexican food and margaritas afterwards. Keep that in mind when reading the analysis below!
For me this weekend is about resetting and going back to the drawing board. I am 99% confident that $5,775 was not the bottom and will be preparing for the next bearish entry. Therefore I will be trying to figure out how much further this dead cat can bounce.
Below is a rough draft of my next entry. I like to start by looking at all of the indicators that have proven to be useful in the past. Always beginning with higher time frames before zooming in.
The visible range volume profile illustrates buying and selling volume for specific price points. This is a very useful tool for determining major areas of resistance and support.
On the daily chart we are seeing large volume at $6,762. That is where there was significant support and we should expect that price to turn into significant resistance.
When zooming into the 4 hour chart we get a more detailed view. It is showing three significant areas of volume at: $6,506, $6,731 and $7,544
The moving averages on the daily chart should also help to determine major areas of resistance. Below are the 50 (green) and 200 (orange) period MA’s. Notice that the 200 period MA is starting to posture downwards. That is a bearish indicator and is why I drew the area of resistance (red box) at $8,800. It should continue moving downwards as the price moves up.
Below is the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart with 20, 60, 130, 30 settings. It will illustrate potential areas of resistance with the Tenkan-Sen , the Kinjun-Sen and the Cloud. As you can see the Tenken-Sen has been an area of strong resistance over the past two weeks.
The next levels to watch out for are $7,750 where the Kijun-Sen is waiting and $8,000 where the bottom of the cloud hovers.
Nothing outlined above is a trade recommendation, it is nothing more than going back to the drawing board. Over the next couple days I will be refining my outlook and expect to have more specific trade recommendations.
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 121)Yesterday I added to my short after the hanging man candle closed on the 4 hour and said that I expect the top wick to mark the peak of this rally at $6,345. Six consecutive red candles followed and now we are back below $6,250 resistance.
We just had a bearish cross on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s on the hourly chart. As you can see below that is what immediately preceded the previous sell off.
Additionally we are still fighting a cluster of resistance on the daily chart from the downtrend that started on 5-6 (red line), prior support turning into resistance (white line) and the 12 period EMA (teal).
Over the past 48 hours the price has supported above $6,095 and I am watching for an hourly close below that as a confirmation for the next step down. I expect the momentum to pick up quickly once we get a close below $5,750.
If you are not in a position then opening a short at the current levels of resistance offers a favorable risk:reward. The stop loss is set at $6,876 and that is based on Bill Williams Fractals. The profit target remains $4,975 and that leaves you with a 1.73:1 risk reward ratio.
If you have the ability then shorting alts vs USD and/or BTC is a much better option. ETH:BTC recently broke down the 0.5 FIB level and LTC:USD looks highly likely to pullback to the $50 - $60 level of support.
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 118)Yesterday we moved the stop loss down on the short positions for the first time. My short on ETH:USD and ETH:BTC has been open since 6-5 and it is a relief to be able to move the stop loss into the money. I use Bill Williams Fractals on the daily chart to manage my stops.
Today we are waiting to see if the major area of support will breakdown below $5,945 and I have been calling for that to happen this weekend. Be ready for a big amount of selling volume to follow if a new swing low occurs.
I have an order set to open a short on BTC:USD as soon as a new low is created. I am going to be playing in a golf tournament today and that order will make sure that I do not miss out on the opportunity. For those of you who are unaware you can do this by setting a stop order if there isn’t currently an open position.
For example: I set a stop loss order to sell BTC at $5,819. Since I do not have an open position that order will trigger to sell BTC on margin, thus creating a short position. That allows me to get the entry I am waiting on without needing to be at my computer. This is a big help when it comes to living a balanced life!
We are currently consolidating at the major area of support and I am expecting the formation of a bear flag to lead to the eventual breakdown.
On the 1 hour chart we can see prior support turning into resistance as well as a shooting star and two hanging men.
The 12 and 26 period EMA’s have made a bearish cross on the 1 hour, 2 hour, 3 hour, 4 hour, 6 hour, 12 hour 1 day, 3 day and 1 week. It is often a good idea to wait until multiple time frames are in alignment before opening a position. It is safe to say that this is currently the case in regards to the moving averages.
If you are still not in a position then there are a couple of entries on the table.
1. Open 100% of your desired position as a short once we breech $5,900 support.
2. Start with 33% of the position when the shorter term moving averages get a bearish cross over - 10 minute, 15 minute etc.
Stop loss is currently $6,851 and the target of $4,950 remains in tact.
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 117)Yesterday I pointed out the resistance from the 12 period EMA on the daily chart, the double top on the 4 hour chart, the resistance cluster coming from the trendline and horizontally, and I also noted the shooting star and hanging man candles on the daily chart.
Needless to say a strong sell recommendation followed and as usual I lined out exactly how I would set up the entry. Start with 33%-50% and then add upon a new low of $6,300 or a continued rally to $7,000.
That trade is now well into the money for anyone who took advantage of the opportunity. Now it is time to review the stop losses and adjust accordingly.
I mainly use Bill Williams Fractals on the daily/weekly chart to set my stop losses. Those have been adjusted as follows:
BTC:USD - $6,825
ETH:USD - $551
ETH:BTC - 0.0815 (unchanged)
The stop loss for ETH:BTC is unchanged mainly because it has yet to pull back like the USD pairs have. I also feel comfortable giving it some room due to how likely it is to pullback.
The volume behind today’s selloff has been convincing and is not indicative of a bear trap . We are fast approaching the yearly low of $5,975. A breach of that level will lead to significantly more selling volume.
I fully expect that area of support to breakdown over the weekend. It provided a very nice bounce the first time around, a much smaller one on the second and now I feel confident that it has been exhausted as an area of support.
I have an order set at $5,974 to add to my short as soon as support breaks down. If not currently in a position that is the safest bet IMO.
Now that we are gaining momentum and the price picks up velocity it can be helpful to watch the shorter time frames. I am a firm believer that moving averages will paint the clearest picture about short term price movements. Choosing the right time frame is often the most important variable.
I am watching on the 12 period EMA on the 10 minute chart.
I do not use this to make entries/exits, it is simply a tool to help me understand where to expect short term resistance.
If you are not currently in a position then I have listed some possible entries below:
Entries and profit targets
Sell BTC:USD below $5,975 | $4,975 target
Sell BTC:USD if bounces to ~$6,300 | $4,975 target
Sell ETH:USD once it breaks down below $450 | $360 target
Sell ETH:BTC once it breaks down below 0.0749 | 0.055 target
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 116)Over the past 10 days I have been calling for a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart. Any time that we get too far away from that moving average a reversion to the mean is very likely. I mentioned that it could come in the form of a sharp bounce, or it could come through days of consolidation. The latter option appears to be the preferred route.
The EMA has been acting as strong resistance over the past 4 days. I think that the bulls need to break through $6,750 before the weekend, otherwise another downturn is highly likely.
We just had a double top on the 4 hour chart which indicates that the next drawdown could be coming sooner rather than later.
We have been trading at a major resistance cluster over the past few days which will be coming to a head in the next 48 hours. The resistance is coming from the downtrend that started on 5/6 (red), established horizontal (white) as well as the EMA mentioned above.
Furthermore we are coming off a shooting star and a hanging man on the daily chart, both of which are good indications that this bounce is exhausted.
Over the past few days I have been suggesting building a short position and/or selling spot at the current levels of resistance. My strategy would be to start with 33% - 50% of your overall position right now and then add at $6,950 - $7,150. If we do not get to $6,950 then I would add the rest of your position upon a new swing low below $6,300. I am short ETH:USD and ETH:BTC. I believe that shorting alts vs USD has the greatest potential ROI and shorting alts vs BTC comes with the smallest amount of risk. My targets of $4,975 for BTC and $300 for ETH remain in tact and I plan on holding onto my short positions until then.
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 115)On 6-11 in the 106th daily update I said that the price of Bitcoin was oversold and said that it is very important not to chase after a move of 10% in less than 24 hours. That was primarily based on how far we had fallen below the 12 period exponential moving average on the 4 hour and 1 day chart.
I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of consolidation. Yesterday we were trading at a cluster of resistance, white horizontal combined with the red trend, and a pullback was expected.
Previous resistance turned into support, a higher low was formed and now we are retesting the cluster of resistance. Today the bulls and the bears have some reliable indicators to point to and I expect the resistance to be heavily contested.
Higher low on the 4 hour vs Hanging Man on the daily
Bullish cross on 12/26 day EMA on 6 hour chart vs resistance cluster on Daily chart
C Clamp (indicates price is out of equilibrium/oversold) vs Volume Profile Visible Range (shows strong built up resistance at current price $6750 and at $7,600
Stochastic on 3 day and Weekly (very bullish) vs RSI on Weekly (bear div), Daily (approaching resistance) and 4 hour (at resistance, pictured above)
Deciding Factors
Shooting star on previous 1 hour candle tells me that bears are winning the fight.
When there is a good argument to be made from both sides then it is very important to take into account the overall trend and momentum. We are deep in the trenches of a bear market and the momentum has been overwhelming each reversal attempt.
The Stochastic is the most bullish indicator by far, and could cause for a rally to the $7,600 range. Therefor if you are looking to enter a position I would suggest opening a short with 33% of your desired position at the current level of resistance. Adding 33% at $7,000 and adding the rest at $7,600. If the price doesn't rally to $7,600 then add the rest of your position after a new swing low below $5,875
The short term target of $4,975 is still firmly intact. I am short ETH:USD and ETH:BTC.
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BTCUSD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 114)Over the last seven days I have been calling for a reversion to the mean after overselling on the 9th and 10th. For me that means a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart. That is where I expect to see strong resistance from the bears lead to an eventual breakdown of $6,000 support.
I have been holding onto my short since 6/4 and am still feeling very confident about my target of $4,975.
We are currently trading at a resistance cluster on daily chart: horizontal (white), trend (red), 12 day EMA (teal).
Over the past week I have been listing a number of trade setups. The one I like the most is opening a short for 50% of your desired position at the current level of resistance. If the price does rally through then you can add on the rest of your position at $6,950 - $7,150. If it doesn't then you can add the rest after getting a new swing low (below $6,300)
I do not expect the rally to be able to sustain through that price. My stop loss is still set slightly above that area. That is due to the Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart.
The four hour chart just closed a shooting star at the resistance cluster mentioned above. That is a good indication of this rally coming to an end.
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 113)On June 11 in the 106th daily update I said that the price of Bitcoin was oversold and said that it is very important not to chase after a move of 10% in less than 24 hours. That was primarily based on how far we had fallen below the 12 period EMA (teal) on the 4 hour and 1 day chart.
I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of consolidation. The latter option was the most bearish option that I saw. It tells me that the market does not have enough demand to create a short term rally. Bears are lining up at each point of resistance and they are winning.
Let’s take a look at the 15 minute chart.
As you can tell the bears seem to be in full control. Steadily breaking down areas of support and strongly holding the areas of resistance. Currently the major area of resistance is $6,500 (white line) and the major area of support is $6,375.
Over the past 5 days the price has consolidated into a triangle (orange) and is currently resisting the 12 period MA on the 4 hour chart. I would still like to see a retest of the 12 day MA before feeling comfortable that the price has returned to equilibrium.
As you can see there is still quite a bit of room between the price and the EMA. This could allow for whales to create a bear trap. I expect a lot of traders have their stop loss set above $6,555 (white line) and/or right above the triangle.
A pump to $6,700 would trigger those stops and also retest the 12 day MA, which I expect to act as strong resistance.
If not in a position then there are some good options still on the table. Keep in mind that these prices are taken from Bitstamp and would need to be adjusted for your exchange.
SEE BELOW!
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 112)Over the last week I have been wanting to see the price return to equilibrium after being oversold on the 6/9. For me that would require a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart.
The price could continue ranging between $6,300 - $6,600 until running into the moving average or it could spike up to $7,000 which is where it currently waits. That is where there will be strong resistance which I expect to cause a new low below the $5,979 capitulation on 2/6.
Once a new low is created then I expect a very significant selloff to follow. I am still holding my short and have set up stop loss above the most recent daily fractal ($7,811 for BTC | $613 for ETH). My profit target remains $4,975 and $305 respectively.
If not in a position then now is the time to be proactive while the price continues to work its way towards equilibrium. My strategy has been to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC & ETH and open a leverage short on ETH:USD/ETH:BTC. I am currently fully positioned and feeling great about it.
For those still looking for an entry a few have been outlined below
1) Sell BTC:USD at 12 day EMA. Save some (at least 50%) to sell the 26 day EMA in case price continues to rally. If price doesn't continue to rally then refer to #4 to enter the other 50%.
2) Sell ETH:BTC. Currently at trend and horizontal resistance cluster
3) Sell LTC:BTC. Recently broke major area of support and is consolidating after a bear flag
4) Wait for new swing low below $7,300 and then open short on BTC or ETH.
I am reminded of a Tweet that I read from @PeterLBrandt on twitter that well along the lines of:
“When long, buy the strongest asset in the class. When short, sell the weakest.”
I focus on BTC, ETH and LTC. Right now I would say that LTC is the weakest but I do not have the ability to short it on my exchange. Therefor ETH was my best option. I believe the ETH:USD offers the greatest chance for ROI and shorting ETH:BTC is the safest option.
I will often go weeks without finding a trade that I would take or recommend. Lately there has been an abundance of trades that give me a high confidence interval and offer a great risk:reward.
When I list out 4+ options do not let it overwhelm you. Focus on what you think is the best bet and then carefully consider how much risk you are willing to take. Calculate how much you would lose (if stopped out) and how much you would win (if hitting the target) BEFORE ENTERING. This could help you to decrease your position size or avoid the trade all together. If you feel too anxious or in too much of a hurry to go through a couple simple calculations then you are FOMOing!
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 111)Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin was being squeezed in between the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the 4 hour chart. It is common to see the price consolidate on top of the shorter term EMA and below the longer term EMA. That is essentially what Bollinger Bands are illustrating when they tighten.
Usually a bullish crossover will follow and we will get a nice pump in the price. In a bull market this can be a very reliable entry signal. However, we are deep in the trenches of a bear market and that is when those signals are often nothing more than a trap. With this much bearish momentum a false signal/peakthrough is very likely.
That is when the crossovers occur and buyers get trapped. In that scenario we would see the moving averages quickly cross back over into a bearish posture and strong resistance from the price where the crossover occurred.
We still have not retested the 12 period EMA on the daily chart and that is what I’ve been waiting for as an indication that we have returned to equilibrium after being oversold on the 6/10.
Yesterday I lined out three possible trades. Option number 2 was to open a short after falling below $6,300. If not in a position today then that still looks like the best bet. If you went with option number 3 and sold the LTC:BTC bear flag then you should already be in the money. The other option was to wait for the bounce to take us to $6,950 and that is still an option for the traders who are more patient. If I wasn't in a position I would hesitate open a short after falling so far and would likely be waiting to sell the 12 & 26 period EMA's on the daily chart.
I am going to a wedding this afternoon and will be away from the charts for the next 24 hours. It will be a great day for me to gain perspective and create memories!
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 110)Two days ago I made a nice call that had me feeling very prepared for the price pump we got yesterday :
“I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.”
I was tweeting like a mad man all day saying to sell BTC:USD, ETH:USD, ETH:BTC, and LTC:BTC. In the daily update I outlined those positions ahead of time so that there would be plenty of time for anyone who wanted to position themselves accordingly (refer to to day 107 ).
From here it is still possible to see the pump continue for another 1-5 days. The price is currently being squeezed in between the 12 & 26 period EMA’s and they could make a bullish crossover in the next day or so.
That would create a third higher low and would likely send the price right back to $7,000. If we get a close below the 26 period EMA, or the price falls below $6,350, then I would fully expect this pump to be over.
Entries
If you are not in a position then there are a few options still on the table.
1) Scale into a short or out of spot at upcoming levels of resistance - $6,950 | $7,150
2) Short or sell spot as soon as the price falls below $6,300
3) Short alts vs BTC - LTC is forming a bear flag after breaking down a major level of support
Stop Loss
My philosophy about trading is a simple one. I believe I first learned the sentiment from Peter Brandt on Twitter.
‘Diligently manage stop losses and let the profits take care of themselves.’
I am using Bill Williams Fractals on the daily chart in order to actively manage my stop losses:
BTC:USD - $7,776
ETH:USD - $618
ETH:BTC - 0.0815
LTC:BTC - 0.01601
The stop losses will be moved up once a new up fractal prints on my chart.
It doesn’t appear that the ruling from the SEC will have an impact on the technicals. ETH:USD and ETH:BTC got a nice green candle immediately following the news, but turned around right where the trend suggested.
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 109)Today I would like to start with a quick overview from the last couple weeks. I am not one to toot my own horn, but it seems like that is the only way to gain credibility in this space.
5/28 was the last day that I was bullish. I recommended a short term buy at $7,250. That was based on how far the price was from the 12 & 26 period EMA ’s on the 4 hour and daily chart.
I turned bearish the next day because of the Ichimoku Cloud as well as the 50 week MA. Below is the weekly chart. I had been bullish since 4/6 due to the weekly cloud, support from the MA, overleveraged shorts and breaking the down trendline. Once that changed I was forced to join the bad news bears.
Due to the change in my outlook I immediately recommended to exit all bullish positions on the 29th and start preparing for a bearish entry. That was after a nice little pump and the price was trading above $7,400.
My gameplan was (and still is) to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC & ETH and open a leveraged short. I got out of all alts that were in profit or within 2% of breaking even.
On 6/9 I said to sell when the price of Bitcoin was trading above $7,600. By that time I was fully positioned and patiently waiting for the breakdown of the triangle.
I sold ¼ of my BTC at an average price of $7,204 and sold ETH at an average of $582.41.
I opened a 5X leveraged short on ETH:USD from $583.41 - $607.43 and did the same for ETH:BTC from 0.07479 - 0.07847.
Yesterday I was strongly expecting a bounce off of the 4 hour hammer candle to get us back to the short term EMA’s. Here is a quote from the daily update:
“I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.”
We did get a bounce, but it has not gotten anywhere close to the 12 day EMA and now we are looking at a very significant bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour. If we turn back around today and go on to create a new swing low below $5,964 then we will likely get to my $4,975 target in the next 2-5 days! That would be the most bearish possibility that I can think of.
It may seem counterintuitive but if that happens it would be a great opportunity to cover my short and open a long position. The harder and faster that the price falls into support the more likely we are to get a significant bounce.
There will be a lot of support waiting to buy Bitcoin at $5,000 and Ethereum at $300. So much so that I will feel fully comfortable trading against the trend with a leveraged position. But that is only if we fall hard enough beforehand.
CONTINUED BELOW...
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 108)Over the last couple days I have been calling for a reversion to the mean. I expected to see days of consolidation or a quick bounce back to the 12 & 26 day EMA’s on the daily chart.
In yesterday’s post I outlined 4 potential entries. Two have yet to come to fruition (short BTC after bounce or consolidation) and the other two are already well into the money (short ETH & LTC against BTC).
I also mentioned the bear flag (blue lines) but said that I didn't think it would be able to complete right away due to being oversold at support.
I did not expect us to break down below the 4/1 low of $6,432 before retesting the EMA’s. As it turns out the bearish momentum has carried us right through the trend support (red dotted) and any horizontal support that might have been expected from the prior swing low .
Now I am watching a nice capitulation wick forming on the current candle that could turn into a hammer or a dragonfly . Those candles are my best indicator of an upcoming bounce. However there is still over an hour left before the close. If it closes below $6,200 then I would expect us to continue downward for a retest of the February 6th low at $5,964. That also happens to be the target for the bear flag from yesterday. If it closes above $6,200 then a short term reversal is likely.
If we do not get a bounce off of the capitulation wick that is forming then I expect it to come from an A-B-C-D three drive pattern that bottoms at $5,964. I will not be buying that, nor will I be covering my short. I will simply be planning for a natural flow of price movement and doing my best to be prepared.
I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.
I am still holding onto my ETH:USD short positions from $583 - $607 and still feel good about my profit target of $300 - $350. I am also short ETH:BTC from 0.074 - 0.07847 and will plan on holding onto that for a while with a trailing stop.
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 107)We have been consolidating into a bear flag pattern over the last 36 hours. However I believe that we are too far oversold for it to complete any time soon (next 1-2 days). I am basing that on how far away we are from the moving averages on the 4 hour chart as well as the daily.
I am still feeling good about my prediction from yesterday , that we will either bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or consolidate until finding equilibrium. In my opinion we would need to retest the 12 period EMA on the daily chart before we will create a new local low below $6,636.
If not in a position then there should be a couple very good opportunities over the next couple days. Here are a few ideas:
1) Layer orders to sell spot or open a short from $7,000 - $7,200 as outlined in yesterday’s post
2) If we consolidate below $7,000 then sell spot or open short at the 12 & 26 period EMA’s on the daily chart
3) Short ETH:BTC and/or sell spot today. Facing strong resistance from trend and moving averages. Open with 50% of intended position. Add the rest after it breaks below 0.618 fib support (0.07529)
4) Short LTC:BTC and/or sell spot if breaks down below 0.015. Profit target is 0.01
Don’t let yourself get caught up in the fear and doubt that comes with bear markets/big drawdowns. That is how you miss golden opportunities. Right now is the time to be thinking ahead and preparing your next move. Also don't let yourself get overwhelmed with all of the possibilities. Focus on one trade and execute it to the best of your ability.
Be like a chess player who is always thinking multiple moves in advance. Be confident in your plan and stick to your guns.
Be like a sniper who is always checking the conditions and steadily taking aim, but rarely taking a shot. When the target is finally in the crosshairs do not hesitate pulling the trigger!
Thank you for reading! Comment below if you have something to say, smash the follow if you found this helpful and remember that clicking like is good karma!
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 106)Yesterday I made a post right as the price was testing the triangle that started forming on 2/6. I expected a small bounce to $7,450 before eventually breaking down that support and creating a new local low. I made a post when the price was at $7,200 and labeled it as a short.
The red arrow that gets printed on my chart didn’t show up until 8 hour later when the price had already fallen to $6,840. I wanted to clarify that I would never recommend opening a short after the price pulled back over 10% in 24 hours. That is when it is very important not to chase. Instead it would be time to prepare for the next possible entry.
Due to how fast and far we have fallen in such a short amount of time I am expect a reversion to the mean. That could come in the form of a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or it could come through days of consolidation .
The market is way too bearish to consider longing in this spot. This is the time to plan for the next bearish entry - if you are not already in a position. What I would do is set bids at $6,975 and $7,175 to open a short and/or sell spot. I would make each order for 25% of my trading roll.
If we continue to bounce up to $7,400 then I would add another 25% and set a stop loss anywhere from $7,550 - $7,775 (depending on your risk appetite).
I would also set an order for the rest of my position to trigger if and when the price creates a new local low below $6,624. There would be either 25%, 50%, 75% or 100% of the roll left to enter. If we consolidate instead of bouncing then I would enter 100% after breaking down below $6,624. If the price resisted $7,000 and then pulled back there would be 75% of the roll left to enter. I think you get the idea.
Another good trade that is on the table is shorting the ETH:BTC pair. It hasn’t moved much at all in the last 48 hours but it has been steadily finding resistance at the 50 day MA . Historically shorting alts vs Bitcoin is a very safe bet in a bear market. I am in the process of building a position myself. Using the strategy outlined above I am currently 50% entered and am waiting patiently for further confirmation.
I am also happily holding onto my ETH:USD short which a target of $305.
If the bear market has you feeling down then go outside and get some sun! If that doesn’t help then talk to someone about how you are feeling. As always feel free to shoot me a message if you need someone to talk to!
Until next time trade happily and remember that liking/following is good karma!
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 105)On day 93 I made an important update after changing my short term outlook to bearish. At that time were we severely oversold and I called for a “2-14 day rally before heading back downward.”
I expected that to provide a nice window of opportunity to get fully positioned before the next big move downwards. My strategy was to sell spot ETH & BTC, scale out of alts and back into BTC and also open a leveraged short.
I still have a little spot BTC to sell and some alts left that I would love to get out of (at breakeven) but overall I am very happy with my position. I am going to wait for further confirmation before selling the rest of my spot (max 15% of total roll). To execute that order I want to see a lower high below $7,500 or a breakdown of $7,100.
We are currently retesting the triangle that dates back to 2/6 and are getting a few reversal candles. Starting with what can be considered an inverted hammer , a spinning top and a doji . From here I am expecting a bounce to $7,450 and then a breakdown of $7,100. If not in a position there should still be time over the next 6-24 hours to set up a bearish trade.
Until next time trade happily and compound heavily!
Smash the follow for daily updates of the Bitcoin price action!
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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 104)Yesterday I was keeping my eye on the $7,600 level from my seat in the WSOP. Today I was happy to see that my trade didn’t get stopped out like my poker tournament did. The bears held strong at $7,700 and got us to the weekend.
Now I am feeling much better about my position (short ETH). We have been creating lower highs and higher lows over the past week and will not be able to consolidate much longer (have been saying this for 3 days).
Expect a sharp move to follow once we get a lower low (below $7,535) or higher high (above $7,700). Due to this tight range we are in, the risk:reward seems favorable on a long or a short position.
If short then set a stop loss at $7,751. If long then set the stop at $7,524. I would set the profit target for a long at $8,000 - $8,200. I am still maintaining my bearish target of $5,000 for Bitcoin and that is where I would set the target for a short.
A short position offers a much better ROI and it is also in line with the trend/momentum. Also don’t forget the bearish TK cross coupled with the close below the 50 period MA on the weekly chart.
The 1 hour chart just had a bearish cross on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s. For me that is a good indication that the bearish momentum will start to pick up during my trip back home this afternoon.
Until next time trade happily and remember that liking and following is good karma!
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 103)Yesterday I set a tight stop loss on my short position before hopping in the car to drive to Las Vegas for the WSOP. I found myself wondering where all of the bearish momentum had gone, and I was more than half expecting to get stopped out before arriving at my destination.
Resistance held strong and now we are waiting to see what will happen at the $7,600 area. That is where a white line has been drawn to indicate previous resistance/support and it is also where the 50 period MA awaits.
The bulls keep moving up support and establishing higher lows. Up to this point the rallies haven’t had any steam, but that will change in the blink of an eye if bulls keep successfully moving up support.
Bears have drawn a line in the sand at $7,750 and have been holding strong over the last week. If they can continue holding that area of resistance over the next 24 hours then I expect a significant pullback over the weekend.
If you are not in a position then the risk:reward on a short sale is very favorable. I am short ETH:USD with a stop loss set at $627.
Cards are in the air for event #19 and it is time for me to take my seat!
Wish me luck by smashing the like and following!
