On June 11 in the 106th daily update I said that the price of Bitcoin was oversold and said that it is very important not to chase after a move of 10% in less than 24 hours. That was primarily based on how far we had fallen below the 12 period EMA (teal) on the 4 hour and 1 day chart. I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of ...
Over the last week I have been wanting to see the price return to equilibrium after being oversold on the 6/9. For me that would require a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart. The price could continue ranging between $6,300 - $6,600 until running into the moving average or it could spike up to $7,000 which is where it currently waits. That is...
Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin was being squeezed in between the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the 4 hour chart. It is common to see the price consolidate on top of the shorter term EMA and below the longer term EMA. That is essentially what Bollinger Bands are illustrating when they tighten. Usually a bullish crossover will follow...
Two days ago I made a nice call that had me feeling very prepared for the price pump we got yesterday : “I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a...
Today I would like to start with a quick overview from the last couple weeks. I am not one to toot my own horn, but it seems like that is the only way to gain credibility in this space. 5/28 was the last day that I was bullish. I recommended a short term buy at $7,250. That was based on how far the price was from the 12 & 26 period EMA ’s on the 4 hour and...
Over the last couple days I have been calling for a reversion to the mean. I expected to see days of consolidation or a quick bounce back to the 12 & 26 day EMA’s on the daily chart. In yesterday’s post I outlined 4 potential entries. Two have yet to come to fruition (short BTC after bounce or consolidation) and the other two are already well into the money...
We have been consolidating into a bear flag pattern over the last 36 hours. However I believe that we are too far oversold for it to complete any time soon (next 1-2 days). I am basing that on how far away we are from the moving averages on the 4 hour chart as well as the daily. I am still feeling good about my prediction from yesterday , that we will...
Yesterday I made a post right as the price was testing the triangle that started forming on 2/6. I expected a small bounce to $7,450 before eventually breaking down that support and creating a new local low. I made a post when the price was at $7,200 and labeled it as a short. The red arrow that gets printed on my chart didn’t show up until 8 hour later when...
On day 93 I made an important update after changing my short term outlook to bearish. At that time were we severely oversold and I called for a “2-14 day rally before heading back downward.” I expected that to provide a nice window of opportunity to get fully positioned before the next big move downwards. My strategy was to sell spot ETH & BTC, scale out of...
Yesterday I was keeping my eye on the $7,600 level from my seat in the WSOP. Today I was happy to see that my trade didn’t get stopped out like my poker tournament did. The bears held strong at $7,700 and got us to the weekend. Now I am feeling much better about my position (short ETH). We have been creating lower highs and higher lows over the past week and...
Yesterday I set a tight stop loss on my short position before hopping in the car to drive to Las Vegas for the WSOP. I found myself wondering where all of the bearish momentum had gone, and I was more than half expecting to get stopped out before arriving at my destination. Resistance held strong and now we are waiting to see what will happen at the $7,600...
Yesterday I said that I did not expect this trading range to hold for another 24 hours. Less than 30 minutes after posting that chart the price started pulling back. However it quickly found support at $7,480 and created another higher low. That had me reconsidering my short position on Ethereum. I moved my stop loss to slightly above the last high ($617.76)....
Yesterday I was watching what happened as we were trading at “strong resistance”. I fully expected to see a lower high lead to an eventual breakdown of the trend (green dotted) and triangle (pink solid) support. After my daily post we got multiple reversal dojis at resistance and that made me feel even more confident in my position. I was surprised to wake up...
Today is the 100th post of the daily update and I want to give a big thanks to everyone who is following! I also want to give an even bigger thanks to the individuals that take the time to like and comment, each one is greatly appreciated! Thankfully I get to make a favorable post on this memorable day. Yesterday I was “expecting a small bounce from $7,385”...
Over the last couple days I have been warning about an ideal setup for a bull trap and today it looks like that was the case. Thin order books and lower liquidity make it much easier for a whale(s) to manipulate the price. That person(s)could cause the price to breakout of the 26 day downtrend (red dotted) and push the price above $7,600 without needing as much...
Yesterday I went to a wedding shortly after making my daily post and have been away from the charts for almost 24 hours. This morning I woke up bleary eyed and am trying to get back into the swing of things after eating way too many carbs for breakfast. The price of Bitcoin continues to grind upward after breaking through the 26 day downtrend (red dotted). The...
Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin approached the 26 day downtrend (red dotted). I was preparing for resistance from that trend line to cause a breakdown of the 5 month triangle (purple) and sell off to $5,000. I have been selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past 48 hours with the intention to buy back. My first order set at $7,550...
Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin approached resistance at $7,600. That is the first key level of resistance that was outlined in Day 93 . There was established horizontal resistance (white solid) as well as the 3 week downtrend line (red dotted). I have been expecting a retest of that trendline since 5/25, when I drew the maroon arrow....