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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 76)Yesterday I built a long from $8,607 - $8,628 expecting to see a bounce over the weekend. Unfortunately we continued to break down to $8,200. When the price did bounce it was short lived. I am still holding onto my position, mainly due to how far out of equilibrium we still are. I have put on Bollinger Bands to help illustrate this fact. We have seen multiple candles close outside of the band and that is unsustainable. In my opinion that leaves us with two options that are highly likely. 1. Bounce to $8,900 to test for resistance 2. Range for days/weeks until finding equilibrium If I wasn’t fully entered then I would be building a long from $8,200 - $8,400. While it is possible that we continue falling from here without any bounce the risk reward is on a long is favorable. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 75)This morning we broke out of my no trade zone. Unfortunately it was to the downside! Breaking through $9,000 support has changed me from bullish to neutral. Nevertheless I strongly expect a bounce in the next 12- 24 hours. We fell $400 (4.44%) in four hours and $700 (7.5%) in the last sixteen hours. Furthermore we have not see the price this far below the 12 & 26 day EMA’s since the $5900 bottom on 2-6. Being that far out of equilibrium could provide a good opportunity to take a scalp. I am long from $8,600 with a target of $8,950. If I was bullish then I would be looking for a higher target. Since my overall position is neutral I will be exiting at the first level of resistance. Happy trading and let’s go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 73)Yesterday there was not much good news to report as we continued to break down through multiple areas of support. I noted that the last line of defense for the bulls was $9,000 - $9,200 and it looks like that area help up...at least for now. The next step will be rallying back above $9,500 and then turning that area into support. If we get rejected below $9,500 then we would form another lower high and lower low. That would be bad news for the bulls. Unfortunately I made an egregious error last night that has cost me significantly. Before going to bed I went to re enter my stop loss at $8,749 and instead entered it as a sell order. That closed out my long right at the bottom. Now I am licking my wounds and trying not to beat myself up too bad. Mistakes happen. If not in a position then I would be staying on the sidelines and awaiting further development. I am viewing the $8,800 - $9,500 as a no trade zone. If in a long then I would hang tight and see what happens at $9,500. It would be time to look for an exit if we cannot convincingly breakthrough that area and then turn it into support. Conversely I am remaining bullish as long as we stay above $9,000. The climb up to $9,900 happened very fast and we were due for a healthy pullback. As long as support holds strong we should expect $10,000 very soon! Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 69)Yesterday I was fully bullish and laid out a couple potential entries. I am very happy to see the most bullish scenario shaping up. We were able to breakthrough the 0.618 fib and $9,800 resistance much quicker than I expected. That also broke the neckline of the inverse h&s and provided an opportunity to buy the breakout. I started with entering 20% of my position at $9,853 and then waited for further confirmation. The volume is the one of the last reasons for hesitation imo. I was expected much more volume on the breakout and so far it has been fairly unimpressive. The OBV makes me feel better as it continues to make local highs and follow the price without any major divergences. I left an open order at $9,550 before going to sleep and to my surprise I got the fill! Now I have entered 50% of my overall position and have two open orders on the books. One order is to buy the breakout of $10,000. It is set to trigger once the price gets above $10,176. I set it a little higher than $10,000 to try and avoid any bull trap. The other order is set at $9,751 in case there is another quick pull back. The stop loss is still a shade under $9,000. The profit target for the h&s is $12,750 which is also where we will see resistance from the 0.786 fib. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 67)I am very happy to see that Bitcoin broke out of the triangle I drew yesterday! The market is getting more and more bullish by the day and I am loving every second off it! Yesterday I said that I expected a $10,000 restest if we could hold $9,000 for another 12-24 hours. I also mentioned that I would be staying away from BTC until it broke out of the triangle one way or another and hinted at the ETH setup. We got a golden opportunity when ETH and LTC broke out of their triangles in a big way and BTC lagged behind for hours, as if it were set up on a tee. Last night I closed ½ of my leveraged ETH:USD long (+22.15% in less than 12 hours) and put it into a leveraged BTC:USD long at $9,315. We met some resistance at $9,400 and I think that it will provide another good entry sometime in the next 6-12 hours. Often the price will throwback to test the triangle for support before taking off. I would be looking at building a long anywhere from $9,200 - $9,300. A stop loss set under $9,000 leaves a very nice r:r ratio. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 62)Yesterday I was waiting further confirmation before looking for an entry. My ideal scenario was a $9,650 retest and then a higher low around $9,300 - $9,500. The price didn’t quite get to the $9,650 area but it did create a higher high. Now it appears to be forming a higher low. The last two candles have a bullish shadow and I like the hammer that just closed. I have started to build my position and am using $8,838 as my stop loss. It wouldn’t surprise me if we continued to pull back to $9,000 where horizontal and trend support will be waiting along with the 50 day SMA. I have only entered 50% of my position and would add the other half from $9,000 - $9,150. Happy trading and keep in mind that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 61)On April 26th I drew the dotted line down to $9,000 and explained that I need that area to prove itself as support before I would consider entering another long. Yesterday we saw the price dip down to $8,900 before quickly reversing. At that point I saw two options: Range for 3-5 days from $8,900 - $9,300 Create a higher high, and go for a $9,650 retest We are currently breaking through resistance and are on track for option B. That is great news and has put me on red alert for the next entry. Right now my gameplan is to wait and see how this rally plays out.I would like to see us break through $9,300 in a convincing manner and then create another higher low. I expect the current rally to take us back up to $9,650 - $9,750 where resistance will be waiting and then I expect a pullback. If that pullback finds support above prior resistance and creates a higher low then it will be time to build a long. If all goes according to plan then I will be entering from $9,300 to $9,500. With the price currently trading at $9,300 you may be wondering why not enter right now… My trading style is not concerned with getting the best price, all that matters to me is taking on the least amount of risk. More confirmations and patience almost always add up to less risk. Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if this was helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 54)Yesterday I was very happy to see us break the the 0.382 FIB resistance as well as the log trend line! In daily update I also mentioned that $8,900 - $9,000 would be the next area of resistance and that's where we pulled back today. From here I expect it to be smooth sailing for the next week. This is when it is very easy to get complacent and/or greedy. Stay focused and stick to the plan. Manage stop losses and always stay on your toes! Talking to myself as much as anyone else. Keep an eye on the trend line we supported from the 17th - 20th. I expect us to retest that over the weekend. That could be a good area to build a position. These are 4 hour candles and there should be plenty of time to enter. I have drawn three dotted lines to show how I think the next 7 days will go. They are based on support & resistance levels as well the daily trend of the previous few days. This is how I was able to draw the trend line on the 17th after seeing the golden cross, well before the it had been established as support! I have a very hard time predicting the intra day moves and I rarely day trade. That is why those lines are dotted, I would only use them as a way to plan for entering a long and/or taking profit, not as individual trades themselves. We also supported big selling volume two candles ago without closing below $8,700. I view that as a good sign that this pull back will be short lived. We might blow right through my trend line and go for a FIB retest, but I wouldn't necessarily plan on it. If not in a position $8,400 - $8,700 should be a good place to build a long. There will be resistance waiting at $9,400 - $9,500 but I don’t think we will have a problem get to $10,000 and that is where my first profit target is set. Stop loss is at $8,119 and will be moved up each time we breakthrough resistance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 48)Over the past few days we have been on red alert, awaiting final confirmation that this bear market is over. Step 1: Break through bear trend (red line) Step 2: Turn that trend line into support Step 3: Golden Cross on 50/200 day SMA In yesterday’s post I pointed out the dragonfly doji that was forming on top of the trend line and was watching for the price to bounce. This morning I was very happy to see that everything is still moving according to plan. If we can maintain support above $8,150 and develop a higher low over the next 24- 48 hours then I would consider Step #2 complete. The 50 day MA has begin to posture up and is rapidly approaching the 200 day MA. Once those cross then all three steps will be checked off and I will be ready to open a leveraged long. In the meantime I am waiting patiently on the sidelines and would advise the same for everyone else. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez