USDCAD Short Opportunity - 4hr & End to Daily Correction? USDCAD is looking to approach another sell area in its daily corrective move we have all been following so intently. There have been many setups on offer during this period and this short setup is by no means any different. Nevertheless I will touch on why, further down in this piece, this correction may be coming to an end!
If price doesn't move into no mans land but respects it, then it should breakout of this horizontal triangle - patience is important here. To trade this setup, obviously confirmation through your strategy should be your main priority before entering.
In my opinion the green line below no mans land (the top trend line of the daily corrective move) will provide us with the best entry locations for shorting this pair.
On the daily chart depending on how you look at the last 5 or so months, one may come to the conclusion that we are currently trading the C wave of a corrective structure that has followed an earlier impulsive move down through waves 1,2,3,4 and 5 (we can possibly say we are even riding the E wave as the structure is in a sort of horizontal triangle to which would also support this argument). If this is in fact the case we will likely see a continuation of the downtrend seen prior to the corrective structure, which means a price movement much larger than we have seen over the last few months - therefore meaning a potentially fantastic opportunity to get short and hold out for as long as you have the nerve.
Of course markets move where they want when they want so we could simply see a continuation of the current uptrend. However if we see a break of the trend line of the entire corrective structure at the bottom of the chart, you can better your bottom dollar I will be shorting some more as it will be an indication market bulls are leaving.
4hours
USDJPY (4H right shoulder of head and shoulder pattern completedUSDJPY (4H): After double bottoming (on Sept 27) at the 100.00 support zone, price moved sharply higher and is now back at previous resistance. Price has broken the rising wedge and has retested the bottom of the wedge as well as the 50 SMA. This is also the right shoulder of the head and shoulder pattern. My downside targets would be the 103.25 (Previous weekly open/swing low) then 102.8x (38.2% retrace/ 127.2 ext/ swing low). I would not buy at this level. I would wait until price break (above 104.64) through and retest the overhead resistance. Or look for buying opportunities if price reaches the previous weekly low at 102.8x.
USOIL (4H) trading at the top of a bull channelUSOIL (4H): After spiking higher oil is trading in a bull channel. It is currently approaching the highs of this bull channel. It has broken the high at $51.57. Will it hold above or will price rotate to the lows of the channel. Note that price is also at the 127.2% extension of a previous swing high. The trend is clearly bullish and I would only be looking for buying opportunities at the low of the channel or on a strong break and pullback of the $51.7x resistance zone. My upside targets are $52.4x (measured move) then $54.00 (127.2% extension). I would only consider selling if price breaks the bull channel as well as trade below $50. I would be looking for a retest of the SMAs. My downside targets are 48.0x (SR zone and 38.2% retrace) then $46.0x (SR zone and 61.8% retracement)
SPX500 (4H) trying to break resistance at 214xSPX500 (4H): Price bounced off support near 2100 and is currently trying to break through the resistance zone at 214x. This resistance is defined by previous support now resistance as well as the 50 SMA. Buyers who entered in the 212x zone could consider taking partial profits. Those looking to buy should wait for a strong break and retest of this resistance zone. This break should bring prices above the 50 SMA. Sellers should wait for bearish price action and note that there is resistance at 2100 zone. My upside targets are 216x (previous highs) then 218x (previous highs). My downside targets are 212x (previous lows) then 2110 (previous low) then 2100 (round number and 127.2% extension)
DXY (4H) trading at lows of spike and channelDXY (4H): Price is trading in a up channel after a sharp upward move. We are currently at the lower trend line of this bull channel. Price is clearly in a up trend. My upside targets are 98.1x (previous high) then 98.5x (upper measure move/previous high). I would not consider shorting until there is a strong breakdown of the up channel that brings price below the 50 SMA. My downside targets are 97.2x (resistance now support) then 96.3x (61.8% retracement, previous SR zone)
USDCAD (4H) price testing bull channel lower trend lineUSDCAD (4H): After spiking higher off the 1.28000 zone, price is trading in a slight bull channel. Note however than in the short term we are still trading below the 20 SMA as well as the 50 SMA. We are currently at the lows of this channel. If the lower bull channel line holds my upward targets are 1.316x (previous high) then 1.328x (previous high), then finally the channel highs. If price breaks the channel lows my downside targets would be 1.30000 (round number) then 1.284x (previous low). Note: Even though we are in a up channel the price action is currently bearish. Wait for bullish price action before going long.
GBPUSD (4H) price trading at 50 SMAGBPUSD (4H): Price broke to the upside of the triangle pattern and is currently at the 50 SMA as well as near the previous high created Oct 11. The trend is clearly down and I expect selling of bearish price action at this level as well as the other overhead resistance zones (up to the 61.8% retracement). I would only consider buying (counter trend trade on a shorter timeframe) if I see a very strong break of overhead resistance with the pullback being held above the 50 SMA.
USDJPY (4H): Rising wedge expecting break to the downside.USDJPY (4H): After double bottoming (on Sept 27) at the 100.00 support zone, price moved sharply higher and is now back at previous resistance. THe 50 SMA has catch up with current prices (due to slowing momentum) and there is a rising wedge which I am expecting to break to the downside. My downside targets would be the 103.0x zone (38.2% retracement) then the 102.0x zone (61.8% retracement). A strong break above the 104.3x zone could see prices testing the next resistance zone at 105.5x (127.2% extension)
The downward momentum has slowed. Expect some correction.EURUSD (4H): The downward momentum has slowed as price runs into the 1.10000 level. I expect some correction. This zone is also the 161.8% extension of a previous down swing. Price is trading slightly below the down channel lows and is overextended with significant separation from the 50 SMA. The USD as been strong and I expect selling pressure at previous swing highs as far as up to the 61.8% retracement.
EURCHF - Short term 4h , 2 targetsFrom my point of view, entry opportunity short for EURCHF, with two possible targets, view the safety box is a possible area retraction price (there is a high probability that ignore), good to enter or to use as margin security, depending on the tactics.
1 goal, is itself a line break, if the price closes below the target 2 is a high probability.
Good trade, and recalls in the market That can happen anything.
SPX500 (4H) is coiling into a wedge patternSPX500 (4H) is coiling into a wedge pattern the centre of the consolidation is around the 216x zone. Both the 20 and the 50 SMA have flattened. The price action seems rather balanced. It should however be noted that the last dominant move was a swing low. There is immediate resistance at the 217x zone and immediate support at the 214x zone.
USOIL (4H) trading above $50. Will it hold?USOIL (4H) Oil is trading slightly above $50. Will more buyers step in and push prices higher or is it time for the bulls to take profits? There is significant separation between the current price and the 50 SMA. Are the bulls willing to keep buying at these prices or will they prefer a retracement to the moving average before taking prices higher? "The trend is your friend until it bends" It is always tempting to short prices as it test resistance zones. However if I am a bear, I would prefer to wait for confirmation and have prices holding pullbacks (at last) below the 20 SMA before considering short opportunities.
GBPUSD (4H) price bounces off the 161.8% extensionOn the GBPUSD (4H) chart, price is trading close to the low of the bear channel after bouncing off the 161.8% (at 1.2690x) extension of a prior swing low. Since we are currently trading below the range lows, I would expect this area to act as resistance. The market is over extended and there is significant separation between price and the 50 SMA as well as the 20 SMA. Expect some ratracement back to those moving averages was well as the top of the bear channel.
GBPUSD Price structure analysis (4H)GBPUSD (4H) The downward momentum is slowing down. Price has traded sideways for a couple of days below the 1.3000 level which as acted as resistance. It also at the 78.6% retracement.I am still bearish because we have a down channel and trading below the 50 SMA. Price is now at the 20 SMA which is flattening out due to the sideways price action.