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BTC 4 Hr - Heikin Ashi, MA, BB, RSI +Overall Summary: Overall the last 7 days (9th - 16th of January, 2018) were bearish and I am bearish for the next 7 days. Bitcoin is trading in the $4000 to $3500 range during the last week, 81.7% down from the ATHs, with a market cap of $63 billion. The chart indicates a continuation of the current down trend. The price is closest to the 20 MA with a trend towards the 200 MA. The volume has decreased over the last week, which is supporting the current price action. The RSI decreased in convergence with the recent price action, a bearish signal. Finally the MACD decreased in convergence/divergence with the recent price action, a bearish signal. Detailed Summary: This chart uses 4 hour Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with a custom trend bar indicator, Bollinger Bands, 4 MAs (20, 50, 100 & 200), RSI & MACD. Heikin Ashi candlesticks are great for trend and swing trading. Heikin Ashi means ‘average’ in Japanese because these candlesticks ‘average out’ price action vs traditional candlesticks that are based on OHLC (Open High Low Close). By averaging out price action this candlestick style reduces ‘noise’ and generates a much smoother chart pattern. This is helpful for trend traders as it is easier to identify the key trend in the market and to ignore smaller price volatility. During the last week the price has ranged by $500, opening at $4000 and closing at $3600. The price has decreased over the period which is a continuation of the long term price trend. From the 11th to the 14th we experience consecutive spinning tops and spinning dojis, indicating low volume and major indecision in the market. Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Moving Averages on the 4 hour time frame. The 200 MA is red, the 100 MA is orange, the 50 MA is yellow and the 20 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish. For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish. It is also important to note that the longer the Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance. During the last week the price is closest to the 20 Moving Average and during this period it has trended towards the 200 Moving Average. The 200 Moving Average is currently acting as resistance while the 20 Moving Average is acting as support. The key Support area is $3300 and key Resistance areas is $3600. I forecast in the next week that price will test the next support area. Bollinger Bands are the two blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the security’s price. The top and bottom are two standard deviations away from the Moving Average. If the market becomes more volatile, the bands widen and vice versa. Historically 90% of the price action occurs with the Bollinger Bands, as the price oscillates around an equilibrium. There it helps us identify where the price is in the oscillating cycle so that we can identify entry/exit points and major price changes (on the 10% chance when price breaks through the Bolling Bands). During the last week the Bollinger Bands have contracted/expanded from $X to $X. The increase/decrease in the Bollinger Bands width was due to increased/decreased price volatility during the last week. The wicks broke through the upper band on 2 4 hour candles, lower band on 10 4 hours candles and stayed within the bands on 32 4 hr candles. I forecast in the next week that the Bollinger Bands will increase and overall trend is bearish. Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend. During this period volume has slightly decreased in convergence with the recent price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is in convergence with the long term trends. I forecast in the next week that the volume will decrease and this will support a decrease of price. The RSI is a popular momentum based oscillator that helps us identify what stage in the security’s oscillation cycle it is most likely at. So after identifying the key market trend we can then apply the RSI to forecast future moves in price action (in terms of velocity and magnitude). This indicator is useful determining entry and exit points, for trend traders like myself, it is used on longer time frames as it is much more reliable. Most of the significant price action occurs around the 30 and 70 areas and ideally what we are looking for is divergence between the price action and the RSI. During the period the RSI decreased to 38 and it is in convergence with the recent price action. It is demonstrated a bearish failure swing is when the RSI rises above 70 (considered overbought), RSI drops back below 70 then RSI rises slightly but remains below 70 (remains below overbought) and finally RSI drops lower than its previous low. No it is demonstrating a bullish failure swing is when: RSI drops below 30 (considered oversold), then RSI bounces back above 30, then RSI pulls back but remains above 30 (remains above oversold). I am watching to see if it bounces and breaks above the previous high, it am doubtful. I forecast in the next week that the RSI will decrease over the next week and this indicates a decrease of price. The MACD is a popular trend following momentum indicator that can help identify a security’s momentum, trend direction and duration. is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 MA are equal. The MACD , that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes. During this period the MACD has decreased in convergence with the recent price action. The MACD line crossed below the Signal line on the 9th which was a bearish trend in divergence with the price action at the time, but 24 hrs later price followed suit. The MACD line crossed below the Zero line on the 10th, which was a bearish trend in convergence with the price action. The histogram crossed above the Zero line on the 13th which was a bullish trend in divergence with the price action. I forecast in the next week that the MACD will decrease and this indicates a decrease of price. References: Heikin Ashi summary - www.investopedia.com Moving Average summary - www.investopedia.com Support and Resistance summary - www.investopedia.com Bollinger Bands summary - www.investopedia.com Fake exchange volume summary - www.blockchaintransparency.org RSI summary - www.investopedia.com MACD concise summary - www.investopedia.com
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by CarbiArbittrage
4hr deathcross nears…can 2 bull patterns be enough to reverse itWe currently have 2 4hr chart bull patterns forming a little falling wedge bull pennant pattern(in yellow) and a potential small 4hr inverted head and shoulders pattern....a breakup at the right point from the falling wedge pennant could give the bulls enough breakup momentum to get above the neckline of the 4hr inverted head and shoulders and even potentially trigger it...if this were to occur we could see a brief trip back up to the 3950 range. However even if this were to occur I don't think the momentum will be big enough to prevent the 4hr death cross or even flip it quickly back to a golden cross...so while both these patterns may very possibly break bullishly I think the end result is still going to be a sustained 4hr death cross and a bearish drop in price action to go with it. If they don't break bullish and it just continues to break down from here then I think we may see a double bottom bounce at the 1 week chart's 200ma around 3260 or so...if we do break upwards and hit the inv h&s target of 3950 or so there may be enough fomo generated at that point to get above the neckline of the much bigger inverted head and shoulders pattern around 4k at this point...I could potentially see this setting a huge bull trap at this point and if we did inch above the neckline I think there would be such a spike in longs that it would set the perfect bull trap for a big capitulation candle inv h&s fakeout crash from there...one that could drop to 2.8-2.9k or possibly even lower. Of course I always gotta also factor in the slim possibility however that it could actually legitimately trigger that bigger inverted head and shoulders pattern as well and take us to over 5k but that seems very improbable at this point especially with the 4hr deathcross on track to happen in the enxt 8 hours or so. Of course with crypto nothing is impossible so I can't discount the possibility entirety. Thanks for reading and understanding this is not financial advice!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
possible fractal tht could prevent breakdown from hitting targetOne thing crypto loves to do more than anything is fakeout the herd so although we have multiple deathcrosses across most major time frames and a breakdown from the recent bearflag, it could potentially repeat the pattern seen immediately after the price action highlighted here inside the 1st yellow circle where it only went about halfway on the rbeakdown and then liquidated a bunch of shorts by inverted barting its way back up. Be prepared for that but I wouldnt go long unless you see a bullish bart pattern start to occur the 4hr cross on xrp just happened which could be some of the market drop but the 4hr deathcross on btc has still yet to occur. this dip should have it occur much quicker than its earlier time frame trajectory of january 18th and when it does I anticipate further downside...always always always the possibility of a fakeout in crypto though.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
BTCUSD 4H Wave Analysis 1/51/2 Has hit the .618 retracement of it's wave at ~3549.35 (could go to 3444) The 1.618 extension on 1/2 hits 5378.37 Near key level 5333.33 This takes us past 5280.48 which is the .618 retracement of the move down to the low of 3128.89 I expect 3 to end near these levels. 4 could hit anywhere between 4233 and 5K Some key levels are 4444, 4623, 4870. 5 could only extend to the .618 extension of wave 3 (not pictured) or perhaps go 1:1/just past wave 3. @ 6478-6610
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Mikelikescrypto
EURUSD - My personal analysis28.12.2018 @ 4:22PM Marked out where price may in the future move too.. I dont see price breaking the 1.14858 mark and making a new high. This train of thought is influenced by the fact that the economic outlook is rather bearish on the EURO but also the fact that we are touching a downward trend-line influenced on the weekly charts. There is clear resistance around the 1.12570 price point and allot of FIB level noise so one would lean more towards it will be very choppy until breaking the 1.12135 level. If this level is broken then we should probably wait for a retest before making any huge decisions. We all love a false break.. get in on the confirmation as this area is a key area on past price levels.. patience is the key.. and the price clusters.. reduce your risk by using them to your advantage!! On the flip side the move higher is held down by the major trend 61.8% after breaking the level.. it point lines up with many extensions and will be a very hard level to crack.. I am not ruling out a bounce off this level as anything could and will happen.. but with the weekly trend, poor economics, poor outlook, neck-line on head and shoulders, stoch overbought and momentum and volume falling.. the likely hood of an uptrend vs downtrend at this particular time dosent seem to hold too much weight in the market.
Short
by hardkandy
Sideways action for BTCSo we've tested $4100 and retested once again but this time higher at $4200 on Christmas eve. With a bearish RSI divergence and dropping volume we were expecting a move down. The move happened as expected to the downside on Christmas day. So where to from here. Well it is difficult to tell at this stage. We sit tightly on the 4HR 200MA and measuring a FIB from the lows of $3111 and the high of $4241 we can see that we are between the .382 and the .5 fibs. There's two scenarios we can go from here. Scenario 1: A retest to the upper side. So with this scenario we should see a small rebound due to the big drop that we saw today 25/12. The retest will be $4000-$4100 and then shortly drop further to $3351 (VPVR) Support and Resistance and .786 key fib. Scenario 2: Pause and continue bear At these levels we're taking a breather from the bearish move from today and staying here for a few candles (probably a day's worth of candles) before moving further south. As with Scenario 1: we're looking at testing $3351 S/R level. If this breaks then we may see new lows below $3111. So what am I doing? BITFINEX:BTCUSD I'm hanging tight. I don't see direction and in some cases a no trade is better than a trade, especially if you don't see a move. I unfortunately missed the mark on the way down from 4100 as I set my entry too high and never got triggered but there's also another day another dollar.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by carton
4hr golden cross incoming; just broke above inv h&s neckline.we just experienced a sizeable 4hr candle to start the new daily candle but so far not much volume to go with it yet on the daily... this could be a major bull trap we have technically broken above the neckline of the inverted head and shoulder pattern on the 4hour chart but the right shoulder is very disproportional and may actually just be part of the head still...small right shoulder have been known to trigger breakouts though but currently it may also just as easily be a fakeout...there is also a golden cross on the 4 hour chart that seems just a candle to away from occurring so altogether it is a recipe for either a massive move upward or a massive fakeout but either way a huge move is coming very soon...smart to wait for confirmation before going either way.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by DrDovetail