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BTC: possible short opportunity comingGood morning and Happy Fourth of July all! Bitcoin has been making some great moves lately. It appears there is actually some buy interest now instead of bears playing games. However, even in a bull run we need healthy retracement to reload the coil springs. I'm not bearish at all by any means, but will be looking for a short. On the 4 hour we have almost completed a rising wedge pattern. We are also approaching a heavy rejection zone right at the top of the wedge. Even though regular RSI is oversold, I think we have one more leg to run with the L-RSI (see green box below,) to maybe 6800ish. The expected retracement of this wedge would put us around 6050-6100, but I typically expect wedges to follow through to about 80%. This would put us at 6300 which I believe is a pretty psychological and charted support zone, so I will close my short around here to be safe.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by infbp22
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 127)Yesterday we looked at the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart and I expected that to provide the support needed to break through the downtrend line that started on 5/5. We did end up breaking the trend line and now I expect a sustained rally for the next 1-2 weeks. We have a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s for the following time periods: 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, and 6h. The EMA’s are posturing for a crossover on the 12 hour chart and we are currently testing the 26 EMA on the daily chart for resistance. If we range in between the 12 & 26 EMA’s on the daily chart before getting a crossover then a strong rally would be expected to follow. The 50 period MA is starting to posture upwards on the 4 hour chart and indicates that a crossover with the 200 period MA is likely in the near future. We just got a tweezer top on the 4 hour chart combined with a bearish spinning top . That won’t be nearly as powerful as the tweezer on the weekly chart but it could be an indication that this current rally has come to an end. If we are unable to rally past $6,800 resistance over the next couple days and we create a lower low below $6,275 then I will likely be opening a short immediately. In the post from yesterday I was expecting a bounce to $7,275 and I still feel good about that projection. Nevertheless I am sitting on my hands and waiting for further development. I remain firmly bearish for the rest of 2018 and would need a perfected setup in order to take on a bullish entry in this market (such as buying LTC at $50). The Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart shows the next levels of resistance at $7,879 ( Kijun-Sen ) and $8,094 (Cloud retest). If we do rally back to those prices then I would be viewing it as a high probability short and opening a large position. Inexperienced traders will be running around like a chicken with it’s head cut off in this market. Do not let that happen to you. Have a plan, then patiently execute it with confidence. Have a backup plan and always be looking at the market from both sides. If you are feeling emotional then take a break and use smaller position sizing next time. If you want to open a long right now, then why didn’t you do it at $5,800 - $6,000? It's because you don't have enough confidence in your position and are following instead of preparing. If you want to open a short right now I would recommend waiting patiently because this bounce still has plenty of room to go. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 126)Yesterday we went back to the drawing board after the trailing stop losses were triggered on my ETH:USD and BTC:USD shorts. I am 99% certain that we are yet to find a bottom, therefore I am preparing for the next bearish entry. If you missed yesterday’s post I would recommend giving it a read. I outlined major areas of resistance and it should give you a good idea about how to start the process of finding a trade. Today is Sunday and it is the first of the month, so this post will be about analyzing the longer term time frames. The current rally found resistance at $6,500 and is retesting $6,250 support. The long wick which pushed the price from $6,500 down to $6,400 is a bad sign for the bulls. It tells me that the FOMO buyers were easily thwarted by the bears at that level. The weekly candle is going to close in a few hours. If the price holds above $5,823 then we would get a nice tweezer bottom. I would expect that to provide the support needed for the bulls to breakthrough the trendline (red). From there a bounce to $7,275 would be likely. The well defined support and resistance areas combined with the downtrend line is why I would be expecting a bounce to $7,275. If that does happen then I would be viewing it as a high probably short sell. The Stochastic on weekly chart also had it’s first crossover below 11 since 1-12-15. That effectively marked the bottom of the last bear market prior to the year of consolidation. This indicator made me reconsider my confidence level in regards to the market finding a bottom. If the Stochastic is marking the bottom like it did in 2015 then we still have a long time to consolidate. If we range between $5,823 and $7,275 over the next 3+ months then I will start calling for the bottom. Until we see some serious capitulation and/or months of ranging in a tight zone then I will remain confidently bearish. Based on the likelihood of a tweezer bottom and the recent cross on the Stochastic I am expecting a strong bounce from here. However, I am not nearly confident enough in that projection to bet against the trend. Therefore I will be waiting to sell the bounce on BTC and alts. If you are not currently in a position I would recommend doing the same. Thank you for your time! Have something to add? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 125)Yesterday we identified a bear flag (red triangle) and adjusted the stop losses based on Bill Williams Fractals from the daily chart. The flag failed to confirm with a breakdown below $5,776. Instead we got a double bottom that led to my stops being triggered on BTC:USD and ETH:USD. Yesterday was a great example of why I have been saying that shorting alts vs BTC is the safest bet. When BTC pumps in a bear market alts often FOMO back into it and/or have trouble keeping pace. I set a tight stop loss on my ETH:BTC short at 0.0731 which will ensure that position is profitable. That stop has not been triggered even with all of the volatility from yesterday. Trading is very stressful and I like to detach from the markets after getting stopped out. Today I played in a golf tournament and went out for Mexican food and margaritas afterwards. Keep that in mind when reading the analysis below! For me this weekend is about resetting and going back to the drawing board. I am 99% confident that $5,775 was not the bottom and will be preparing for the next bearish entry. Therefore I will be trying to figure out how much further this dead cat can bounce. Below is a rough draft of my next entry. I like to start by looking at all of the indicators that have proven to be useful in the past. Always beginning with higher time frames before zooming in. The visible range volume profile illustrates buying and selling volume for specific price points. This is a very useful tool for determining major areas of resistance and support. On the daily chart we are seeing large volume at $6,762. That is where there was significant support and we should expect that price to turn into significant resistance. When zooming into the 4 hour chart we get a more detailed view. It is showing three significant areas of volume at: $6,506, $6,731 and $7,544 The moving averages on the daily chart should also help to determine major areas of resistance. Below are the 50 (green) and 200 (orange) period MA’s. Notice that the 200 period MA is starting to posture downwards. That is a bearish indicator and is why I drew the area of resistance (red box) at $8,800. It should continue moving downwards as the price moves up. Below is the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart with 20, 60, 130, 30 settings. It will illustrate potential areas of resistance with the Tenkan-Sen , the Kinjun-Sen and the Cloud. As you can see the Tenken-Sen has been an area of strong resistance over the past two weeks. The next levels to watch out for are $7,750 where the Kijun-Sen is waiting and $8,000 where the bottom of the cloud hovers. Nothing outlined above is a trade recommendation, it is nothing more than going back to the drawing board. Over the next couple days I will be refining my outlook and expect to have more specific trade recommendations. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 124)Over the past couple days we have been examining the short selling volume as it relates to the price of Bitcoin. I noted that the shorts had fallen off drastically while the price had remained flat/fallen slightly. That told me that the only buyers above $5,900 were short sellers taking profit or getting liquidated. On day 122 I wrote: “I am expecting the shorts to continue to decrease down to 22,765, which is where I have drawn the white horizontal line to illustrate support. From there I am expecting a sharp reversal in short sellers and another drawdown in Bitcoin” The rebound in short sellers led to the lowest daily close since 11/12/2017. That is when I expected to see selling volume increase significantly. Instead we are consolidating into a bear flag (red) at support (white). The measured move for the flag is $5,590 and it would confirm with a breakdown below $5,882. If we bounce from here then I am expecting prior support to turn into resistance at or below $6,072. The stop losses on my short positions have been adjusted based on the Bill Williams Fractals from the daily chart. Those have been move to: BTC: $6,378 ETH: $451 If you are not in a position then you have a couple options: (1) You could wait for confirmation of the bear flag from above and enter upon a breakdown of support. The stop loss for that trade would be the top of the flag at $5,943. (2) Or you can remain on the sidelines in order to start preparing for the next bounce. BTC ETH LTC I currently have orders to buy LTC at $61.75 | $55.51 | $49.76 | $33.60 I think LTC is the best option for a couple reasons: it has been oversold more than the other two and it offers a better potential ROI at approximately 100%. BTC and ETH would have a target closer to the 50% range. $50 is also a very strong area of support for LTC. Bitcoin would need to fall to $4,000 - $4,200 and Eth $290 - $305 to reach the same levels of support. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 123)Yesterday we took a look at the short sellers on Bitfinex in relation to the price of Bitcoin. I noted that the shorts had fallen drastically while the price of BTC remained flat. That told me that the only buyers at this level are short sellers who are covering or getting liquidated. I predicted the shorts to continue to fall to 22,765 before a sharp reversal. That is where I expected the shorts to pick back up and the price of Bitcoin to fall back down. The momentum appears to be reversing at 22,800. With how sharply the short sellers have fallen off in the past 48 hours I really would have expected to see the price of Bitcoin rise. Instead it has fallen itself. I am taking that as a very bearish indication. Once the short sellers are on the rise again it will almost certainly push the price down. I am expecting a breakdown of $5,900 support by 7/1. That is based on the cluster of resistance from the trendline (red), prior support turned into resistance (white) and the 12 period EMA on the daily chart (teal). The short term EMA's (12 & 26) have a bearish crossover on the following timeframes: 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, 12h, 1d, 3d, 1w. It is often best to wait for all of the time frames to paint the same picture before making an entry. That is currently the case with the moving average crossovers and I have found that to be one of my most reliable indicators. The price has been stuck in a range over the past week from $6,100 - $6,300. Once we get a move outside of that zone I am expecting a big move. If you are not currently in a position then opening a small short at the current price and added to it upon a breakdown of $6,100 should work out nicely. If you have the ability to short alts vs USD or BTC that should be the best bet. I am currently short BTC:USD, ETH:USD, and ETH:BTC. The stop loss and profits targets are as follows: BTC Stop: $6,876 Target: $4,950 ETH Stop: $556 Target: $360 Stop losses are based on the most recent Bill Williams Fractal from the daily chart. Profit targets are based on trendlines, prior support and FIB retracement levels. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 122)Yesterday I added to my short position after the hanging man candle on the 4 hour combined with the bearish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the hourly. I have been expecting the breakdown of $5,900 support since last Saturday and am viewing this current bounce as the final short squeeze before the sell off. The amount of shorts has fallen significantly over the past 5 days. I would expect to see a rise in price to reflect the short sellers covering their positions and/or getting liquidated, however that has not been the case. Bitcoin has remained stagnant while the shorts have been getting rekt. I am viewing this as a bearish divergence. I am expecting the shorts to continue to decrease down to 22,765 which is where I have drawn the white horizontal line to illustrate support. That could happen in the next few hours or days. From there I am expecting a sharp reversal in short sellers and another drawdown in Bitcoin. The previous 4 hour candle closed in the shape of a hammer or a hanging man. It is very hard for me to decipher this one. Hanging men come after a rally in the price and a hammer must follow a sell off. This candle followed a very small rally and that is why some would view it as a hanging man. Prior to the small bounce was a significant sell off and it could be argued that this is a hammer. Which one do you think it is? The 15 minute chart is painting a pretty clear picture of support turning into resistance. The bulls are fighting hard to keep the price above $5,900 however they seem to be losing the fight slowly but surely. The number of traders that are still bullish on Twitter and Reddit is the primary reason why I am certain that we are yet to find a bottom. The profit target for my short remains at $4,950. That is due to trendlines and previous support/resistance. One last thing to note is how well that lines up with the 0.382 FIB Retracement level which is showing up at $4,976. The stop loss remains $6,876 and that is due to the most recent Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart. If you are not in a position then you can start to build a short at the current levels and plan to max out your position upon a breakdown of $5,900. If you have the ability to short alts vs BTC or USD then that should be the safest bet. I am currently short BTC:USD | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC and I sold my spot positions in EOS and LTC. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 121)Yesterday I added to my short after the hanging man candle closed on the 4 hour and said that I expect the top wick to mark the peak of this rally at $6,345. Six consecutive red candles followed and now we are back below $6,250 resistance. We just had a bearish cross on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s on the hourly chart. As you can see below that is what immediately preceded the previous sell off. Additionally we are still fighting a cluster of resistance on the daily chart from the downtrend that started on 5-6 (red line), prior support turning into resistance (white line) and the 12 period EMA (teal). Over the past 48 hours the price has supported above $6,095 and I am watching for an hourly close below that as a confirmation for the next step down. I expect the momentum to pick up quickly once we get a close below $5,750. If you are not in a position then opening a short at the current levels of resistance offers a favorable risk:reward. The stop loss is set at $6,876 and that is based on Bill Williams Fractals. The profit target remains $4,975 and that leaves you with a 1.73:1 risk reward ratio. If you have the ability then shorting alts vs USD and/or BTC is a much better option. ETH:BTC recently broke down the 0.5 FIB level and LTC:USD looks highly likely to pullback to the $50 - $60 level of support. Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
AUDNZD Big Short SwingEarlier this week, AUDNZD provided a quick short opportunity after a minor pullback. After hitting a price target perfectly, it has pulled back to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This was also confluent with the 89 EMA, which has proven to be a prominent resistance/support with this pair in the past. The third confluent factor is the fractal resistance occurring at the same level as the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the 89 EMA. The last downward wave has also provided a confirmed trendline that can be used as a price target - which happens to coincide with a major previous support. The first price target is based on an immediate support level for some safe profits. SL: 1.0777 TP1: 1.066 TP2: 1.058
Short
by UnknownUnicorn769459
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 120)Yesterday we looked at the weekly candle as it was getting ready to close and noted that there was still plenty of room left on the downside. One of the most common problems I see with inexperienced traders is the unwillingness to bet on the trend. A common perception that I am seeing is that the price has already fallen too far to justify the risk:reward of a short. This logic is sound but it is going to be incorrect more often than not. Markets will rise and fall much more than you can imagine and this mind state could cause you to miss out on some great opportunities. I am going to continue aggressively shorting the market until we see some serious capitulation. Peter Brandt says that he likes to trade in between the 20 yard lines of a trend, and is never concerned with catching the top or the bottom. In my opinion we just entered field goal range on the 40 yard line and there is still plenty of time to profit from this bear trend. You can go for a field goal by scalping $200 - $500 moves or you could go for the touchdown with a $4,975 target. I am opting for the latter. A hanging man just closed on the 4 hour chart. It was following a rally in the price and I expect the top of the wick ($6,345) to mark a major point of short term resistance. We are fast approaching a major resistance cluster which will be coming from the 50 period MA on the 4 hour chart, the 12 period EMA on the daily chart, the downtrend that started on 5/6 (red line) and prior support which is expected to be turned into resistance (white line). I added to my short at $6,284 and am closely watching for further confirmations where I can add more. As I said yesterday I am viewing this as the last squeeze before eventually breaking down $5,900 support. Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 119)Yesterday we were waiting on the breakdown of support which has held us up since the beginning of February. I had an order set to open a short on BTC as soon as a new low was created below $5,820. My order triggered a few hours ago at $5,819 and the price quickly reversed from there. We are currently re testing $6,200 for resistance and I am viewing it as a great opportunity to add to my short. This feels like the last short squeeze before the downward trajectory resumes. If it breaks through $6,300 then I will be looking to add more to my position at $6,424. That is where a cluster of resistance will be waiting from the trendline (red dotted), 12 period EMA on the daily chart and that is where prior horizontal support is expected to turn into resistance. Today is Sunday and that means the weekly candle only has a few hours left before closing. It is currently taking the shape of a bearish spinning top. The TD sequential shows a 6, which leaves three weeks left of downside before a 1-4 week correction. The Ichimoku Cloud recently had a kumo twist which followed the TK Cross. The next confirmation would be for the price to trade below the cloud. The only thing that worries me about my short positions is the dragonfly doji which is currently forming on the daily chart above established support. If the current candle closes above $6,000 then that would be a strong indication of a short term reversal and something to keep a close eye on. I am still using $6,851 as my stop loss and that is based on the most recent Bill Williams Fractal. Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 118)Yesterday we moved the stop loss down on the short positions for the first time. My short on ETH:USD and ETH:BTC has been open since 6-5 and it is a relief to be able to move the stop loss into the money. I use Bill Williams Fractals on the daily chart to manage my stops. Today we are waiting to see if the major area of support will breakdown below $5,945 and I have been calling for that to happen this weekend. Be ready for a big amount of selling volume to follow if a new swing low occurs. I have an order set to open a short on BTC:USD as soon as a new low is created. I am going to be playing in a golf tournament today and that order will make sure that I do not miss out on the opportunity. For those of you who are unaware you can do this by setting a stop order if there isn’t currently an open position. For example: I set a stop loss order to sell BTC at $5,819. Since I do not have an open position that order will trigger to sell BTC on margin, thus creating a short position. That allows me to get the entry I am waiting on without needing to be at my computer. This is a big help when it comes to living a balanced life! We are currently consolidating at the major area of support and I am expecting the formation of a bear flag to lead to the eventual breakdown. On the 1 hour chart we can see prior support turning into resistance as well as a shooting star and two hanging men. The 12 and 26 period EMA’s have made a bearish cross on the 1 hour, 2 hour, 3 hour, 4 hour, 6 hour, 12 hour 1 day, 3 day and 1 week. It is often a good idea to wait until multiple time frames are in alignment before opening a position. It is safe to say that this is currently the case in regards to the moving averages. If you are still not in a position then there are a couple of entries on the table. 1. Open 100% of your desired position as a short once we breech $5,900 support. 2. Start with 33% of the position when the shorter term moving averages get a bearish cross over - 10 minute, 15 minute etc. Stop loss is currently $6,851 and the target of $4,950 remains in tact. Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 117)Yesterday I pointed out the resistance from the 12 period EMA on the daily chart, the double top on the 4 hour chart, the resistance cluster coming from the trendline and horizontally, and I also noted the shooting star and hanging man candles on the daily chart. Needless to say a strong sell recommendation followed and as usual I lined out exactly how I would set up the entry. Start with 33%-50% and then add upon a new low of $6,300 or a continued rally to $7,000. That trade is now well into the money for anyone who took advantage of the opportunity. Now it is time to review the stop losses and adjust accordingly. I mainly use Bill Williams Fractals on the daily/weekly chart to set my stop losses. Those have been adjusted as follows: BTC:USD - $6,825 ETH:USD - $551 ETH:BTC - 0.0815 (unchanged) The stop loss for ETH:BTC is unchanged mainly because it has yet to pull back like the USD pairs have. I also feel comfortable giving it some room due to how likely it is to pullback. The volume behind today’s selloff has been convincing and is not indicative of a bear trap . We are fast approaching the yearly low of $5,975. A breach of that level will lead to significantly more selling volume. I fully expect that area of support to breakdown over the weekend. It provided a very nice bounce the first time around, a much smaller one on the second and now I feel confident that it has been exhausted as an area of support. I have an order set at $5,974 to add to my short as soon as support breaks down. If not currently in a position that is the safest bet IMO. Now that we are gaining momentum and the price picks up velocity it can be helpful to watch the shorter time frames. I am a firm believer that moving averages will paint the clearest picture about short term price movements. Choosing the right time frame is often the most important variable. I am watching on the 12 period EMA on the 10 minute chart. I do not use this to make entries/exits, it is simply a tool to help me understand where to expect short term resistance. If you are not currently in a position then I have listed some possible entries below: Entries and profit targets Sell BTC:USD below $5,975 | $4,975 target Sell BTC:USD if bounces to ~$6,300 | $4,975 target Sell ETH:USD once it breaks down below $450 | $360 target Sell ETH:BTC once it breaks down below 0.0749 | 0.055 target Thank you for your time! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 116)Over the past 10 days I have been calling for a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart. Any time that we get too far away from that moving average a reversion to the mean is very likely. I mentioned that it could come in the form of a sharp bounce, or it could come through days of consolidation. The latter option appears to be the preferred route. The EMA has been acting as strong resistance over the past 4 days. I think that the bulls need to break through $6,750 before the weekend, otherwise another downturn is highly likely. We just had a double top on the 4 hour chart which indicates that the next drawdown could be coming sooner rather than later. We have been trading at a major resistance cluster over the past few days which will be coming to a head in the next 48 hours. The resistance is coming from the downtrend that started on 5/6 (red), established horizontal (white) as well as the EMA mentioned above. Furthermore we are coming off a shooting star and a hanging man on the daily chart, both of which are good indications that this bounce is exhausted. Over the past few days I have been suggesting building a short position and/or selling spot at the current levels of resistance. My strategy would be to start with 33% - 50% of your overall position right now and then add at $6,950 - $7,150. If we do not get to $6,950 then I would add the rest of your position upon a new swing low below $6,300. I am short ETH:USD and ETH:BTC. I believe that shorting alts vs USD has the greatest potential ROI and shorting alts vs BTC comes with the smallest amount of risk. My targets of $4,975 for BTC and $300 for ETH remain in tact and I plan on holding onto my short positions until then. Thank you for your time! Have a question? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez