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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 89)Over the past couple of days we have been dancing on the longer term bull trend line (green dotted). We got a bounce from $7,250 that was short lived. Resistance at $7,650 sent us back down for a retest of the bull trend line. I do not believe that we are in danger of breaking down through that area of support just yet. We are still in oversold conditions from the pullback on May 22nd and are highly likely to bounce for a retest of the downtrend that started on May 6th (red dotted). The daily chart has not been so far below the 12 & 26 EMA's since April 1st and that points toward a reversion to the mean over the next couple days. Nevertheless I am remaining on the sidelines until the triangle breaks that started forming Feb 6th. Longing here does provide a very favorable risk:reward, however I have gotten burned too much by being a bull as of late and am content to wait for further confirmation. Happy trading and go bulls! A like, comment and follow a day keeps the bears completely away!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 88)Yesterday I expected a bounce off of $7,950 support, but I stayed away from opening a long after getting burned these last few weeks. Today we are looking at the last line of support before it will be time to put on my bear suit and join the enemy. If you can beat em, join em! We are currently bouncing off of the trend line (green dotted) that I drew on May 15 in the Bitcoin 2018 Bull Trend Post . I will be watching very closely to see how much steam this bounce has behind it. At a minimum I expect it to take us back to $7,950. That is where the bears would be waiting to turn prior support into resistance. That would also be the third point of contact on the down trend that started on 5/6 (red dotted). The third touch is expected to be the most potent and that is where we will see confident selling out of the bears. If we can make it through the strong resistance at $8,000 - $8,200 then bulls will be able to breath a momentary sight of relief. Conversely that area would provide an attractive risk reward ratio for a short entry if you're into that kind of thing. I will also be closely watching for the completion of the triangle that started forming on 2/6 (pink). It will be 66% completed within the next 3-5 days and that it when a breakout is expected to occur. Breaking the green bull trend would also have us breaking down through the triangle. Talk about a crucial price point! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 87)Yesterday I was fully expecting a bounce off of the hammer doji and horizontal support at $8,200. My stop loss was set at $8,097 and that was triggered a few hours after my post. I have gotten rekt going long over the last couple weeks, and that has forced me to zoom out on the charts and re-evaluate. I have used a fresh chart to illustrate what I am looking at. Over the last two months we have been forming a triangle pattern. A breakout is expected to occur when the triangle is 66% completed. That has been highlighted in yellow and is set to occur on or around 5-28. According to Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948) Edwards and Magee suggests that roughly 75% of triangles marked a continuation pattern. A breakout to the upside would indicate a $15,183 price target and according to Thomas Bulkowski , 66% of bullish breakouts hit the price target. However, we are currently forming a downtrend that comes to a head on 5-27 at $7,117. That lines up within a day of the expected triangle breakout. Referring back to Thomas Bulkowski the average bearish breakout is expected to decline 17%. That would indicate a $5,907 price target. In the next 24 hours I will be watching for horizontal and trend resistance at $8,000. If we can breakthrough that that we could get right back on track for breaking out of the triangle to the upside. As long as we remain inside the triangle I am considering Bitcoin in a no trade zone. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 86)Yesterday I started to build a long position at $8,375. I entered ¼ of my position and waited for further confirmations. I was fully expecting a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 day EMA’s (6 hour chart) and unfortunately that has failed to materialize. We continued to pull back through both of the longer term bull trend lines (green dotted and orange solid) and now we are retesting the crucial area of $8,200. We just closed a textbook hammer doji and I expect to see a bounce from here. I will be watching closely to see how much steem this bounce has behind it. If we resist $8,400 - $8,500 then it will be time to get out of this position. We need to create a new local high above $8,600 otherwise I expect us to come crashing down through $8,000. If we can establish a new local high then we should form a diamond bottom that would provide a nice base of support. Until next time happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 85)Yesterday I warned against buying resistance at $8,500 - $8,600 and I also set up a potential entry at $8,736 where we would find horizontal and trend support. Furthermore, I advised to watch out for a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 days EMA’s (6 hour chart) as confirmation. We haven’t quite gotten the EMA cross, but it appears imminent at this point. I made my first entry at $8,376 for ¼ of my trading roll and plan to add on after further confirmations. I will be closely watching for moving average crossovers as well as a breakout from the daily Ichimoku Cloud. In order to enter another full on bull market we need to see a crossover on all timeframes and then high we need to see the longer term moving averages cross (50 & 200 specifically). We also need to be trading above a green cloud. We are not out of the woods until all of those boxes are checked. My plan is to add onto my position by 2/4 of my trading roll if and when the 12 & 26 day MA’s cross on the daily chart and then add the final ¼ when/if we break out of the cloud on the daily chart. Stop loss will be actively managed and is tentatively set slightly under $8,150. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 84)This morning I am happy to say that both of my questions from yesterday have been answered, and I am even happier to say that we got the bullish answers everyone was hoping for! $8,200 was attempting to turn into resistance and that has failed. We pumped up to $8,400 and then supported $8,200 before created another local high. In the past 48 hours we have established three higher lows as well as three higher highs. Furthermore we got a much needed bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 day MA’s. That happened at $8,250 and would have provided a very nice entry. However, we were still trading inside the 14 day downtrend at that point and I was keen on waiting for further confirmation. If you did go long from $8,200 - $8,300 then good for you! However, if you missed that entry then it is too late now and I would advise warming the bench with me. There will be resistance from $8,500 - $8,600 and buying into established resistance is never a good idea. The final confirmations that I will be watching for are: MA bullish crossovers on higher time frames (6 hours, 12 hours and 1 day) and the daily chart making it outside of the ichimoku cloud. A good strategy can be to divide up your trading roll and make partial entries after each confirmation. For example: if your trading roll is X then go long with X/4 after the 6 hour MA crossover then add onto the position by X/4 after each additional confirmation. Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 83)Yesterday I was on the sidelines waiting for two big questions to be answered. Now it looks like we won’t get the desired clarity until after another slow weekend. Those questions were and are: 1. Will $8,200 turn into resistance? 2. Can we break the 14 day down trend? We rallied right past $8,350 and for a moment it looked like we would be leaving both of those questions in the past. However, we quickly pulled back after taking a peak outside of the 14 day down trend and are currently testing $8,200 for support. If we cannot hold above that price over the next 48 hours then I expect $8,200 to ultimately turn into strong resistance. On the other hand, if we can hold then we will break through the down trend and be off for a $9,000 $9,200 retest. I will remain on the sidelines until gaining more clarity. Until next time, happy trading and go bulls! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 82) Yesterday I was watching from the sidelines as the price brokedown through $8,200 support and appeared to be confirming a second bear flag. From there I expected us to fall down to the green dotted bull trend line at $7,150 - $7,250. As it turned out we found some support at $8,000 - which has given us a bounce for an $8,200 retest. From here there are two big unanswered questions: 1. Will $8,200 turn into resistance? (white line) 2. Can we break through the 14 day downtrend (red dotted line) I need to see the price back above $8,200 and outside of the downtrend before I will feel comfortable opening a long. If we fail at either of those points then it will be back to my original plan of waiting for $7,150 - $7,250. Until then I will be sharpening my tools on the sidelines. Comment if you have something to say, smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 81)Yesterday I was licking my wounds as an injured bull and today I didn't looked at the charts until after 9:00 pm. Before taking a break I determined two support clusters that were most likely to provide a bounce. 1. $8,200 (horizontal and trend) 2. $7,150 - $7,250 (horizontal and green dotted trend) I am not too surprised to see the first option fall through. Now I am going to be holding my breath for the second option to come through in a big way. If we can hold support above the green dotted bull trend line then we should retest all time highs in 2018. On the other hand, if that breaks down then I will be back to a full bearish outlook for the short-medium term. Until then I will be waiting on the sidelines with my pom poms and skirt. Let's go bulls, let's go!!! *clap* *clap* *clap, clap, clap* Will work for likes and followers
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 80)Yesterday I entered a small position at $8,500 and it didn’t take long for my stop loss at $8,249 to get triggered. That is my sixth losing trade in a row and now it is time for a break. It can be very difficult to think clearly when on the wrong side of the market for that long. A few days away from the charts to clear my head is exactly what I need. The market is down ~11% over the last week and I have been buying most of the dips. Most bounces have not gone as far as expected and when they have I got squeezed out before reaching my target. Stretches like this are a stark reminder of how hard trading actually is! From here I am seeing two options that are most likely: 1. Find support at $8,200 | trend line (orange) and horizontal support 2. Continue pulling back to $7,150 - $7,250 | trend line (green dotted) and horizontal support As long as we remain within the green dotted trend lines I will stay bullish. If we breakdown through $7,150 then I will expect us to selloff to the $5,000 range. For now I am going to take at least two days off of trading and will likely take the weekend off after that. Until next time happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin 2018 Bull Trend - $34,000 price target?!?!My favorite chart pattern to trade are trend lines and/or pitchforks. I am always on the lookout for the next trend. Once one is established I use it as the primary indicator of overbought and oversold conditions. Knife catching the bottom of a trend provides the best risk:reward entries that I know how to find. Furthermore, I can confidently profit take once the price approaches the top end. Unfortunately there has not been a discernible long term trend since 4/12 when we broke out of the bear market. Today I charted a trend that I expect to hold up over the next 3+ months. Furthermore I have used fractals to project the price action and have provided two options for what August could look like. We are currently looking at a bear flag, which I expect to be rejected by support at either $8,500 or $7,800. That would confirm the $10,500 retest before the end of May. That is when everyone will be calling for the moon and it will be time to sell. If we pull back down to $8,300 from there then it could cause some panic to set back in for the skittish bulls. Tone Vays will be calling for $1,000 and the uncertainty will be abundant. That is when I will be putting on my working gloves and looking for a knife to catch. We would have a cluster of support (trend/horizontal) and it would provide the best risk:reward ratio that I have seen in months. From there I expect a strong rally to take us back up to the top of the trend by the end of July. That is when it would be time to take profit and watch from the sidelines. Obviously I am going to be rooting for the green line and would love to reenter on the breakout. That would have us retesting $20,000 by August 1st and would likely form a very nice cup & handle with a target of $34,000! The other option has us retesting $9,000 during the first week of August and that wouldn’t be nearly as much fun. Nevertheless, I will be prepared for both options and hopefully this will help you to be as well! Comment if you have something to say, smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 79)Yesterday I warned against buying into resistance at $8,800. As expected we pulled back off of the horizontal and trend lines. We are currently finding support at $8,475 and if that holds it would mark the third higher low, to match with three higher highs. I really like that the pullback has yet to fall through the developing trend support (green dotted). Furthermore there is still an unfilled gap from $8,800 - $9,000 and there is a high probability that we retest that range. I have opened a small position at $8,500. The stop loss is set at $8,249 and the target is $9,000 - $9,200. Keep an eye out for another post coming this afternoon which will take a look at the bigger picture. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 78)Yesterday I was concerned about upcoming resistance at $8,600 - $8,800 and I was keeping a very tight stop loss on my long. I got out at $8,569 right as the price was falling through support. There was decent volume behind the selloff and when I went to bed I was expecting to wake up to sub $8,000 Bitcoin. To my surprise we found support for a second time at $8,200 and reversed even more sharply that we fell. That was one hell of a long squeeze and unfortunately I got caught in it. However, the risk was managed properly and I barely lost anything on the deal. I am happy to lose small so that I can win big. As it stands right now I am viewing $8,800 - $9,200 as a no trade zone. If not in a position I would advise against going long right now. $8,800 is strong resistance and there will be a much better entry in the coming days. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 77)Yesterday I was holding onto my long from ~$8,615 and was very confident that we would either get a bounce off $8,200 or find a range. I felt good about that due to how far away we had fallen from the 12 & 26 day moving averages. That was confirmed with a few candles closing outside of the Bollinger Bands. Now that we have cooled off a little bit I am keeping a very close eye on how we develop from here. I expect there to be significant resistance waiting at $8,600 - because there was a decent amount of volume at the price before we broke down further. That price will also see us testing the 12 day MA as well as the simple moving average in the middle of the Bollinger Band. It will be time for me to exit this trade if we face too much resistance. Stop loss is currently set under $8,300 but it will be actively managed. On the other hand if we breakthrough then it could be a quick rally up to $8,850. This is where the profit target has been adjusted to. That is due to prior horizontal resistance (white line) as well as the third point of a down trend (red dotted line). Not the best risk:reward on this trade, but sometimes things change and you have to play the hand that is dealt. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 76)Yesterday I built a long from $8,607 - $8,628 expecting to see a bounce over the weekend. Unfortunately we continued to break down to $8,200. When the price did bounce it was short lived. I am still holding onto my position, mainly due to how far out of equilibrium we still are. I have put on Bollinger Bands to help illustrate this fact. We have seen multiple candles close outside of the band and that is unsustainable. In my opinion that leaves us with two options that are highly likely. 1. Bounce to $8,900 to test for resistance 2. Range for days/weeks until finding equilibrium If I wasn’t fully entered then I would be building a long from $8,200 - $8,400. While it is possible that we continue falling from here without any bounce the risk reward is on a long is favorable. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 75)This morning we broke out of my no trade zone. Unfortunately it was to the downside! Breaking through $9,000 support has changed me from bullish to neutral. Nevertheless I strongly expect a bounce in the next 12- 24 hours. We fell $400 (4.44%) in four hours and $700 (7.5%) in the last sixteen hours. Furthermore we have not see the price this far below the 12 & 26 day EMA’s since the $5900 bottom on 2-6. Being that far out of equilibrium could provide a good opportunity to take a scalp. I am long from $8,600 with a target of $8,950. If I was bullish then I would be looking for a higher target. Since my overall position is neutral I will be exiting at the first level of resistance. Happy trading and let’s go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 74)Yesterday I set a no trade zone from $8,800 - $9,500 and today I am happy to see us grinding towards the upper end of that range. I have been keeping a close eye on the moving averages to try and get an idea of where we are heading next. We have been getting resistance from the 50 day SMA (red) over the past twenty four hours. If we can break above that then $9,500 is very likely to follow. I expect a cross on the 12 (blue) and 26 day (orange) SMA’s within the next 24 hours. That is a strong buy signal for day traders and I am hoping it will give us the momentum needed to break through the areas of resistance mentioned above. Until then I will be focusing on alts. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 73)Yesterday there was not much good news to report as we continued to break down through multiple areas of support. I noted that the last line of defense for the bulls was $9,000 - $9,200 and it looks like that area help up...at least for now. The next step will be rallying back above $9,500 and then turning that area into support. If we get rejected below $9,500 then we would form another lower high and lower low. That would be bad news for the bulls. Unfortunately I made an egregious error last night that has cost me significantly. Before going to bed I went to re enter my stop loss at $8,749 and instead entered it as a sell order. That closed out my long right at the bottom. Now I am licking my wounds and trying not to beat myself up too bad. Mistakes happen. If not in a position then I would be staying on the sidelines and awaiting further development. I am viewing the $8,800 - $9,500 as a no trade zone. If in a long then I would hang tight and see what happens at $9,500. It would be time to look for an exit if we cannot convincingly breakthrough that area and then turn it into support. Conversely I am remaining bullish as long as we stay above $9,000. The climb up to $9,900 happened very fast and we were due for a healthy pullback. As long as support holds strong we should expect $10,000 very soon! Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez