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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 48)Over the past few days we have been on red alert, awaiting final confirmation that this bear market is over. Step 1: Break through bear trend (red line) Step 2: Turn that trend line into support Step 3: Golden Cross on 50/200 day SMA In yesterday’s post I pointed out the dragonfly doji that was forming on top of the trend line and was watching for the price to bounce. This morning I was very happy to see that everything is still moving according to plan. If we can maintain support above $8,150 and develop a higher low over the next 24- 48 hours then I would consider Step #2 complete. The 50 day MA has begin to posture up and is rapidly approaching the 200 day MA. Once those cross then all three steps will be checked off and I will be ready to open a leveraged long. In the meantime I am waiting patiently on the sidelines and would advise the same for everyone else. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 47)Yesterday I made a neutral post and advised everyone to wait on the sidelines for further confirmation. Before entering a long I need to see the price find support above the bear trend (red line). As I am typing this a dragonfly doji is forming on top of the trend line. If that closes then it could provide an opportunity to enter a long. The stop loss would be set at $7,719 and that would be a favorable risk:reward ratio. However, I want to make sure that support holds over the weekend before looking to enter myself. Historically the price can have trouble finding support on weekends when the volume is lower. This is such a crucial spot for Bitcoin that it makes sense to wait on the sideline for a few more days. My trading style is not about getting the best possible price, or trying to pick the exact bottom. Instead I focus on finding trades with the lowest amount of risk. Entering a position right now is too risky for my appetite. However, if we can maintain support above the bear trend over the weekend then I will be ready to feast! Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 46)Over the past couple days we have been on red alert for breaking the cursed bear trend (red line). The first step was to support above $7,500 after the massive rally from yesterday. The second step was to bust through the trend line on large volume. The third step is to find support above the trend line. We did see good volume on the breakout, however the price pulled back soon afterwards. That is generally a sign of strong resistance and could be an indication of an upcoming retracement. This is also the fourth test of the bear trend and that is usually when it is the most dangerous for the bulls. So far we have found support above the 200 day SMA, but it remains to be seen how long that will last. If it falls through then we absolutely have to hold above $7,500. If that doesn’t happen then I would have to quickly change my bullish tune. On the other hand if the bulls are able to hold then it will be time to start looking to enter a leveraged long. Be patient. I repeat...be patient! If we do break the bear trend and enter another bull market then there will be dozens of entries teed up on a silver platter. On the other hand if you are anxious about getting entered ASAP then you will get rekt before the gravy train starts rolling. I realize that my analysis is more wishy-washy than normal, and that is because we are at such a critical spot. Longing this close to the upper end of the longer term bear trend is not worth the risk. On the other hand, we have seen enough bullish sentiment in the last couple days to make a short sale out of the question in my book. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 45)Yesterday I mentioned that the amount of short sellers had gone parabolic and said if we could get the price above $7,155 then a massive short squeeze would be triggered. This morning I was very excited to see that the bulls were able to get the job done! Resistance came in like clockwork on the longer term bear trend (red line). The wick on top of the 4 hour and daily candle is not ideal and we should start to see a pullback over the next 12-24 hours. We need this pullback to support above $7,500. If it can do that then I am confident that we will break out of the bear trend on the following rally. From there the next bull run will be absolutely massive! The volume has been picking up significantly on the OTC desks and some big name funds have publicly moved into the space. I am very excited about all of the indications of a reversal, but I am not jumping in on BTC:USD just yet. Final confirmations will be support above $7,500 and breaking through the bear trend. Yesterday I mentioned that ETH:USD was breaking out of a cup & handle. Anyone who took that position is doing very well this morning! Happy Trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
Short term 4hr thoughts for BTCJust some TA on the 4hr chart on BTC. I think we will possibly see another bounce from the bottom of this symmetrical triangle with one more push to the top before we break down to 6k and lower. I doubt it will go much lower than 5k for fundamental reasons and I will start buying in the $5200 area and lower. The main reason I'm overall short to 5k is because of lower closing lows and they are within margin of error to call a double bottom. Double bottoms don't usually hold in bitcoin. The other reasons include lower closing lows on the daily chart, my TD indicator count is still bearish on a weekly scale and the death cross on the daily 50/200 moving average do not give me confidence in a bounce above 6k. This just does not look like how bitcoin usually bottoms and I have to call for one more huge daily reversal candle lower than 6k with a huge wick. Finally, bottoms don't usually give people all the time in the world to buy Bitcoin within 10% of the swing low. back in the 5k to 3k dip last year before the huge bull run, it went from 2950 back to 3500 and beyond very quick and did not look back until way above 10% of the swing low.. This is what i want to see again in Bitcoin and this is how I think it will make a new bottom.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by AussieCrypto1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 44)I have been keeping my eye on the short sellers being at an all time high these last few days. A new ATH was created on April 8th and they have only increased from there. When zooming out you can see that the short selling volume has gone parabolic. That is the type of fuel that we need to turn this market around. If the bulls can get the price above $7,155 then a massive amount of stop losses will start to get triggered. That should be enough momentum to get us back above $7,500. If we can do that then we would break through the longer term trend (red line) and I would consider this bear market over. We are currently trying to break the 50 day SMA resistance. If we can do that then I expect the next stop to be $7,155 where things will really get interesting. I am waiting for a close above $7,500 as my final confirmation to open a long. In the meantime ETH:USD is breakout out of a nice cup & handle after being oversold and I will be focusing on that. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 43)Yesterday I had hope that we would get another bounce, mainly due to shorts reaching a new all time high. I was also crossing my fingers for the triangle to give us support and I mentioned that it would get ugly fast if it didn’t. I’m happy to see that we held support and shorts are at a new all time high! Right now we are heading for a retest of the 50 day SMA at $6,950. If we can break through that then it should trigger a lot of stop losses. At that point the squeeze would be on and it would be massive! There are over 35K coins short and that is the type of rocket fuel needed to turn around a market as bearish as this one. Going long here with a stop loss set at $6,649 seems pretty attractive. However, where do you take profit? I think there is too much resistance at $7,000 - $7,200 to realistically set the profit target at $7,500. For me it is still too risky to open a long right now. I am waiting for a close above $7,500 or a dip to $5,000 and then I will feel comfortable going long. Until then I will wait patiently on the sideline and remind myself of a Peter Brandt adage: “Trading is done in between the 20 yard lines.” I hope you have a great day and always remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 43)Just as things looked to be turning around for the bulls we see a sharp pull back bring us below the 50 day SMA. The Adam & Eve bottom failed to push us above $7,500 and we are back at $6,650 support. It is also retesting the triangle that we broke out of two days ago. If we don’t hold here then things could get ugly quick. Short sellers reached a new ATH today that gives me hope for another reversal above $6,600. Not necessarily in the form of a squeeze, but instead from shorts taking profit. I remain neutral and on the sidelines until getting further confirmation one way or the other. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 42)Over these past couple days the big story has been the short sellers being at an all time high on Bitfinex. Historically we have seen a huge squeeze when the books are the unbalanced and I do not expect this time to be any different. With the overall market being so bearish I am still being extremely cautious and will be waiting on the sidelines for further confirmation. I need to see a daily close above $7,750 before looking for a bullish entry. That would break the longer term bear trend and confirm the falling wedge that started on 3/5 We are currently testing the 50 day moving average for support. If that holds it would be a very good sign for the bulls. We also have what looks like an Adam & Eve bottom. Hopefully all of these factors can give the bulls the momentum needed to turn this thing around! Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
9 candle closes above the 4hr t line ;3 closes above 50MAShort and simple update. After breaking up out of the most recent descending wedge on the 4 hr chart, and reaching the projected upward breakout target of that breakout we now have 9 closes above the t line and 3 closes above the 50MA Buy/Sell Line with 10 minutes left in a candle that also looks like it will close above both of those lines as well. Once it does that will mark 10 closes above the t line and 4 above the buy sell line....one more close above the buy sell line and we will be back in a buyers Market....so in anticipation of this I am going long...but as always will be prepared for the exact opposite outcome should it reverse course...Looking at the stoch rsi it seems like it wants to continue upward for a little while before retracing so I think it's a safe move. You choose your own path however as this is not financial advice. Good luck and thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 41)I updated yesterday’s post to warn everyone of a upcoming short squeeze. My reasoning was simple: short sellers on Bitfinex were at an all time high. I should have closed out my short upon making that update, when the price was at $6,600. But I stubbornly held onto it and kept a tight stop. That was triggered last night while I was out at the bar and I had to eat a small loss. Today I am very interested to see how long this rally will last. We have broken out of the triangle on the upside and over 33,000 BTC are still short. That tells me the short squeeze hasn’t even started yet. I expect many stop losses are set in the $7,100 - $7,200 range and that is where the whales will be targeting. Get the price to that range, and then let the liquidations take over from there. I am watching for a close above $7,500 before turning bullish. Right now I am firmly neutral and will be sitting on the sidelines. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 40)Yesterday I remained fully bearish and was watching for a new local at to be created below $6,500. Today I have drawn a massive triangle which illustrates the support level that we have been flirting with over the past couple days. If that breaks down below $6,500 I expect the volume to really pick up from the sellers. I have mentioned that I need to see capitulation before expecting this market to reverse and I am hoping to get it from $6,500 down to $5,000. If not in a position I would wait for support to break as final confirmation for entry. Sell between $6,300 - $6,450 and set the stop loss $6,775. The profit target remains at $5,000 where I expect a lot of support to be waiting.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez