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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 109)Today I would like to start with a quick overview from the last couple weeks. I am not one to toot my own horn, but it seems like that is the only way to gain credibility in this space. 5/28 was the last day that I was bullish. I recommended a short term buy at $7,250. That was based on how far the price was from the 12 & 26 period EMA ’s on the 4 hour and daily chart. I turned bearish the next day because of the Ichimoku Cloud as well as the 50 week MA. Below is the weekly chart. I had been bullish since 4/6 due to the weekly cloud, support from the MA, overleveraged shorts and breaking the down trendline. Once that changed I was forced to join the bad news bears. Due to the change in my outlook I immediately recommended to exit all bullish positions on the 29th and start preparing for a bearish entry. That was after a nice little pump and the price was trading above $7,400. My gameplan was (and still is) to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC & ETH and open a leveraged short. I got out of all alts that were in profit or within 2% of breaking even. On 6/9 I said to sell when the price of Bitcoin was trading above $7,600. By that time I was fully positioned and patiently waiting for the breakdown of the triangle. I sold ¼ of my BTC at an average price of $7,204 and sold ETH at an average of $582.41. I opened a 5X leveraged short on ETH:USD from $583.41 - $607.43 and did the same for ETH:BTC from 0.07479 - 0.07847. Yesterday I was strongly expecting a bounce off of the 4 hour hammer candle to get us back to the short term EMA’s. Here is a quote from the daily update: “I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.” We did get a bounce, but it has not gotten anywhere close to the 12 day EMA and now we are looking at a very significant bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour. If we turn back around today and go on to create a new swing low below $5,964 then we will likely get to my $4,975 target in the next 2-5 days! That would be the most bearish possibility that I can think of. It may seem counterintuitive but if that happens it would be a great opportunity to cover my short and open a long position. The harder and faster that the price falls into support the more likely we are to get a significant bounce. There will be a lot of support waiting to buy Bitcoin at $5,000 and Ethereum at $300. So much so that I will feel fully comfortable trading against the trend with a leveraged position. But that is only if we fall hard enough beforehand. CONTINUED BELOW...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 108)Over the last couple days I have been calling for a reversion to the mean. I expected to see days of consolidation or a quick bounce back to the 12 & 26 day EMA’s on the daily chart. In yesterday’s post I outlined 4 potential entries. Two have yet to come to fruition (short BTC after bounce or consolidation) and the other two are already well into the money (short ETH & LTC against BTC). I also mentioned the bear flag (blue lines) but said that I didn't think it would be able to complete right away due to being oversold at support. I did not expect us to break down below the 4/1 low of $6,432 before retesting the EMA’s. As it turns out the bearish momentum has carried us right through the trend support (red dotted) and any horizontal support that might have been expected from the prior swing low . Now I am watching a nice capitulation wick forming on the current candle that could turn into a hammer or a dragonfly . Those candles are my best indicator of an upcoming bounce. However there is still over an hour left before the close. If it closes below $6,200 then I would expect us to continue downward for a retest of the February 6th low at $5,964. That also happens to be the target for the bear flag from yesterday. If it closes above $6,200 then a short term reversal is likely. If we do not get a bounce off of the capitulation wick that is forming then I expect it to come from an A-B-C-D three drive pattern that bottoms at $5,964. I will not be buying that, nor will I be covering my short. I will simply be planning for a natural flow of price movement and doing my best to be prepared. I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation. I am still holding onto my ETH:USD short positions from $583 - $607 and still feel good about my profit target of $300 - $350. I am also short ETH:BTC from 0.074 - 0.07847 and will plan on holding onto that for a while with a trailing stop. Thank you for reading! Comment if you have something to say! Follow if you found this helpful and remember that clicking like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 107)We have been consolidating into a bear flag pattern over the last 36 hours. However I believe that we are too far oversold for it to complete any time soon (next 1-2 days). I am basing that on how far away we are from the moving averages on the 4 hour chart as well as the daily. I am still feeling good about my prediction from yesterday , that we will either bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or consolidate until finding equilibrium. In my opinion we would need to retest the 12 period EMA on the daily chart before we will create a new local low below $6,636. If not in a position then there should be a couple very good opportunities over the next couple days. Here are a few ideas: 1) Layer orders to sell spot or open a short from $7,000 - $7,200 as outlined in yesterday’s post 2) If we consolidate below $7,000 then sell spot or open short at the 12 & 26 period EMA’s on the daily chart 3) Short ETH:BTC and/or sell spot today. Facing strong resistance from trend and moving averages. Open with 50% of intended position. Add the rest after it breaks below 0.618 fib support (0.07529) 4) Short LTC:BTC and/or sell spot if breaks down below 0.015. Profit target is 0.01 Don’t let yourself get caught up in the fear and doubt that comes with bear markets/big drawdowns. That is how you miss golden opportunities. Right now is the time to be thinking ahead and preparing your next move. Also don't let yourself get overwhelmed with all of the possibilities. Focus on one trade and execute it to the best of your ability. Be like a chess player who is always thinking multiple moves in advance. Be confident in your plan and stick to your guns. Be like a sniper who is always checking the conditions and steadily taking aim, but rarely taking a shot. When the target is finally in the crosshairs do not hesitate pulling the trigger! Thank you for reading! Comment below if you have something to say, smash the follow if you found this helpful and remember that clicking like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 106)Yesterday I made a post right as the price was testing the triangle that started forming on 2/6. I expected a small bounce to $7,450 before eventually breaking down that support and creating a new local low. I made a post when the price was at $7,200 and labeled it as a short. The red arrow that gets printed on my chart didn’t show up until 8 hour later when the price had already fallen to $6,840. I wanted to clarify that I would never recommend opening a short after the price pulled back over 10% in 24 hours. That is when it is very important not to chase. Instead it would be time to prepare for the next possible entry. Due to how fast and far we have fallen in such a short amount of time I am expect a reversion to the mean. That could come in the form of a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or it could come through days of consolidation . The market is way too bearish to consider longing in this spot. This is the time to plan for the next bearish entry - if you are not already in a position. What I would do is set bids at $6,975 and $7,175 to open a short and/or sell spot. I would make each order for 25% of my trading roll. If we continue to bounce up to $7,400 then I would add another 25% and set a stop loss anywhere from $7,550 - $7,775 (depending on your risk appetite). I would also set an order for the rest of my position to trigger if and when the price creates a new local low below $6,624. There would be either 25%, 50%, 75% or 100% of the roll left to enter. If we consolidate instead of bouncing then I would enter 100% after breaking down below $6,624. If the price resisted $7,000 and then pulled back there would be 75% of the roll left to enter. I think you get the idea. Another good trade that is on the table is shorting the ETH:BTC pair. It hasn’t moved much at all in the last 48 hours but it has been steadily finding resistance at the 50 day MA . Historically shorting alts vs Bitcoin is a very safe bet in a bear market. I am in the process of building a position myself. Using the strategy outlined above I am currently 50% entered and am waiting patiently for further confirmation. I am also happily holding onto my ETH:USD short which a target of $305. If the bear market has you feeling down then go outside and get some sun! If that doesn’t help then talk to someone about how you are feeling. As always feel free to shoot me a message if you need someone to talk to! Until next time trade happily and remember that liking/following is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 105)On day 93 I made an important update after changing my short term outlook to bearish. At that time were we severely oversold and I called for a “2-14 day rally before heading back downward.” I expected that to provide a nice window of opportunity to get fully positioned before the next big move downwards. My strategy was to sell spot ETH & BTC, scale out of alts and back into BTC and also open a leveraged short. I still have a little spot BTC to sell and some alts left that I would love to get out of (at breakeven) but overall I am very happy with my position. I am going to wait for further confirmation before selling the rest of my spot (max 15% of total roll). To execute that order I want to see a lower high below $7,500 or a breakdown of $7,100. We are currently retesting the triangle that dates back to 2/6 and are getting a few reversal candles. Starting with what can be considered an inverted hammer , a spinning top and a doji . From here I am expecting a bounce to $7,450 and then a breakdown of $7,100. If not in a position there should still be time over the next 6-24 hours to set up a bearish trade. Until next time trade happily and compound heavily! Smash the follow for daily updates of the Bitcoin price action! Don't forget that liking is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 104)Yesterday I was keeping my eye on the $7,600 level from my seat in the WSOP. Today I was happy to see that my trade didn’t get stopped out like my poker tournament did. The bears held strong at $7,700 and got us to the weekend. Now I am feeling much better about my position (short ETH). We have been creating lower highs and higher lows over the past week and will not be able to consolidate much longer (have been saying this for 3 days). Expect a sharp move to follow once we get a lower low (below $7,535) or higher high (above $7,700). Due to this tight range we are in, the risk:reward seems favorable on a long or a short position. If short then set a stop loss at $7,751. If long then set the stop at $7,524. I would set the profit target for a long at $8,000 - $8,200. I am still maintaining my bearish target of $5,000 for Bitcoin and that is where I would set the target for a short. A short position offers a much better ROI and it is also in line with the trend/momentum. Also don’t forget the bearish TK cross coupled with the close below the 50 period MA on the weekly chart. The 1 hour chart just had a bearish cross on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s. For me that is a good indication that the bearish momentum will start to pick up during my trip back home this afternoon. Until next time trade happily and remember that liking and following is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 103)Yesterday I set a tight stop loss on my short position before hopping in the car to drive to Las Vegas for the WSOP. I found myself wondering where all of the bearish momentum had gone, and I was more than half expecting to get stopped out before arriving at my destination. Resistance held strong and now we are waiting to see what will happen at the $7,600 area. That is where a white line has been drawn to indicate previous resistance/support and it is also where the 50 period MA awaits. The bulls keep moving up support and establishing higher lows. Up to this point the rallies haven’t had any steam, but that will change in the blink of an eye if bulls keep successfully moving up support. Bears have drawn a line in the sand at $7,750 and have been holding strong over the last week. If they can continue holding that area of resistance over the next 24 hours then I expect a significant pullback over the weekend. If you are not in a position then the risk:reward on a short sale is very favorable. I am short ETH:USD with a stop loss set at $627. Cards are in the air for event #19 and it is time for me to take my seat! Wish me luck by smashing the like and following!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 102)Yesterday I said that I did not expect this trading range to hold for another 24 hours. Less than 30 minutes after posting that chart the price started pulling back. However it quickly found support at $7,480 and created another higher low. That had me reconsidering my short position on Ethereum. I moved my stop loss to slightly above the last high ($617.76). If Bitcoin creates a new high above $7,750 then I fully expect to be stopped out. At this point it is starting to feel like we are going to retest the top end of the triangle, however I still feel like it is too early to close out the position. I feel much better about a tight stop loss. @PeterLBrandt posted a chart yesterday evening with a price target of $14,855 for Bitcoin. When he shares a chart I pay close attention! I will have to cut this post a little short as I am getting ready to leave for sunny Las Vegas to play in the WSOP! Wish me luck by smashing the like and follow button!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 100)Today is the 100th post of the daily update and I want to give a big thanks to everyone who is following! I also want to give an even bigger thanks to the individuals that take the time to like and comment, each one is greatly appreciated! Thankfully I get to make a favorable post on this memorable day. Yesterday I was “expecting a small bounce from $7,385” and wanted to see “the formation of a bear flag under $7,600 resistance.” I also tweeted about a nice head and shoulders pattern on ETH:USD that was just too good for me to pass up. I cancelled my order to short BTC at $7,024 and opened a position on ETH at $594. I added at $583 when the neckline broke and now I am fully entered (target is $305). Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance from $7,450 - $7,600. That is where the 50 period MA is on the 4 hour chart, the 12 period EMA on the daily, as well as established horizontal resistance. If not in a position this is a good risk:reward play. The target remains $4,950. We are currently retesting the triangle (pink) and bull channel that has been holding us up for the past couple months. I am feeling confident that it will breakdown this time around due to how weak the last bounce was. IMO the bulls are already deflated and will be unable to push the price past the current levels of resistance. The only people still buying are high on hopium. Will be watching for a new low below $7,350 and that is when I expect it to get bloody. Conversely, If bulls can create a new high above $7,800 then it will be time to reconsider my position. Until next time trade happily and remember the age old adage: "If you can't beat them, join em!" Sawcruhteez
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 99)Over the last couple days I have been warning about an ideal setup for a bull trap and today it looks like that was the case. Thin order books and lower liquidity make it much easier for a whale(s) to manipulate the price. That person(s)could cause the price to breakout of the 26 day downtrend (red dotted) and push the price above $7,600 without needing as much capital as he would on weekdays. Doing that confirmed the inverse head and shoulders and likely triggered a buy signal for many short term traders. I was watching closely yesterday afternoon and Tweeted a 15 minute chart after the price broke down the trend support. I advised to watch out for $7,640 to breakdown as an indication that this recent bounce is exhausted. Referring back to the 4 hour chart: I am expecting a small bounce at $7,385 where there will be support from the longer term channel (green dotted), the bottom end of the triangle (purple solid) and the bottom end of the bollinger band. If that bounce fails to get past $7,600 and creates a lower high then it will be time to sell the rest of my spot and be on be on the lookout for a short sale entry. The ideal set up for us short term bears would be the formation of a bear flag to confirm under $7,600 resistance. If that occurs then I will be very likely to open my short at that price instead of waiting for a new local low below $7,024. Until next time trade happily and remember that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 98)Yesterday I went to a wedding shortly after making my daily post and have been away from the charts for almost 24 hours. This morning I woke up bleary eyed and am trying to get back into the swing of things after eating way too many carbs for breakfast. The price of Bitcoin continues to grind upward after breaking through the 26 day downtrend (red dotted). The stochastic has re entered the overbought zone on the 4 hour, but it still has plenty of room to go on the 1d-3d timeframes. I warned of a possible bull trap over the weekend when the liquidity would be low and the order books would be thin. The next 24-48 hours should give us a good indication of what the next 7-10 days will look like. We rallied through the 12 period EMA on the daily chart which was pegged as the first major area of resistance to watch out for. Now we are approaching the 26 day EM, which is currently hovering right on $8,000. If we can get through that area then I would expect a continued rally over the following 7-10 days. That would bring us to the next major area of resistance from $8,750 - $8,850 which was outlined in yesterday's post. I am continuing with my plan of selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum at key levels of resistance, and then opening a leveraged short when/if all of the ducks line up in a row. I do not trade with more than 10% of my total roll, so if we do rally back to $10,000 and beyond then I will still be positioned very nicely. However, I am viewing that as very unlikely and will continue to trade accordingly. Until next time trade happily and remember that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 97)Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin approached the 26 day downtrend (red dotted). I was preparing for resistance from that trend line to cause a breakdown of the 5 month triangle (purple) and sell off to $5,000. I have been selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past 48 hours with the intention to buy back. My first order set at $7,550 resistance and then I executed another order at $7,437 as we appeared to be creating a lower high as well as a descending scallop. I also sold some ETH at $565.99 under the same premise. Now that we have made it through the downtrend I am setting my sights on $8,850. I expect us to rally for a couple weeks and retest that price around 6/13 - 6/15. At that point we will be met with major horizontal and trend resistance. Right now the plan is to hold off on selling any more spot until that area. Once we get there I will be ready to confidently unload the rest of my trading roll (<10% of my overall roll). I also have my order open to short if/when we fall below $7,025 and I will consider opening that position at $8,850 based on the risk:reward. It can be very tempting to open a long in the meantime, but for me that is overtrading. Furthermore, this could still easily be a bull trap. I updated the post from yesterday to say that the conditions are ripe for a trap over the weekend when there will be lower liquidity and thin order books. If it is not a trap then we will rally to $8,000 - $8,200 over the next 5-7 at a minimum and will be very likely to retest resistance $8,850. Until next time trade happily and keep in mind that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 96)Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin approached resistance at $7,600. That is the first key level of resistance that was outlined in Day 93 . There was established horizontal resistance (white solid) as well as the 3 week downtrend line (red dotted). I have been expecting a retest of that trendline since 5/25, when I drew the maroon arrow. From here I am prepared for two options. If we breakthrough this area of resistance then I will expect a rally to the next key area ($7,950) that was outlined in Day 93. I will be selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum at each level of resistance, planning on buying back at $5,000 and $300 respectively. Yesterday I made my first sale at $7,550. If we are unable to breakthrough $7,600 in the next 24-48 hours then I will be looking to sell more at this level. I currently have an order set to sell ETH at $609. I also have an order set to open a margin short as soon as/if we create a new local low below $7,024. The target for that trade is also $5,000. The Ichimoku Cloud and 50 week moving average are the main reasons I am confident in my bearish position. The cloud is fully bearish on all time frames from 2 hour - 1 week. It is the first time we have had a bearish TK cross on the weekly cloud since 2015. It is also the first time we have closed a weekly candle under the 50 period MA since 2015. As mentioned in previous posts I expect a rally for the next 0-12 days before continuing the downtrend. We oversold on 5/22 and are just now getting back to equilibrium from that move. Until next times happy trading and keep in mind that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 95)Yesterday I reaffirmed my short term bearish outlook, but also mentioned that we could get a dead cat bounce over the next two weeks. In the post where I outlined my reasons for turning bearish I also outlined 5 major areas of resistance that I will be watching out for. The price pulled back yesterday before reaching the first area of resistance that I outlined ($7,675) and I was watching closely to see how much steem was behind that move. As it turned out there was not enough to create a new low and trigger my short sale entry. Instead we created a higher low and have also established a slightly higher high. We are fast approaching the downtrend (red dotted) that has held strong since the 5th of May. This will be the third touch of the trend line and I expect bears to be waiting in numbers. I think this will be the single most important level of resistance. If the down trend can be broken then there shouldn’t be much problem getting back to $8,200. On the other hand if bears overwhelm the bulls at $7,600 then I expect a new local low to come in very quickly. I still have an order set at $7,024 to open a short sale as soon as/if a new low is created. Happy and trading and remember that likes/comments/follows are free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 94)Yesterday I outlined my reasons for turning bearish in my short term outlook of Bitcoin. It was the first post with a sell recommendation since 4/6. In addition I outlined 5 major areas of resistance and said that I expected a rally for the next 2-14 days before continuing the downtrend. I advised to exit all long positions and outlined two ways to build a short position. As far as I am concerned selling a breakdown below $7,025 provides the best risk:reward. I have an order set to open a short for my full position as soon as/if the price falls to $7,024. If the price creates a new local low then it would confirm a breakdown of the triangle and I would expect a large amount of selling volume to follow. From there a retest of $6,000 is highly likely. Right now the plan is to hold onto my short until the major support at $5,000. The other option for entering a short was to stagger sell orders at each level of resistance that were outlined yesterday. The reason that I prefer the former option is because this is Bitcoin and anything could happen once the FOMO buyers see a few green candles. If all goes according to plan then I intend to ‘flip my position’ at $4,950 by closing my short and opening a long. There will be major support waiting at that area. I am very confident that we will get a bounce from there, enough so that I am comfortable betting against the trend. This morning I woke up to see the price pulling back slightly before the first area of resistance that I outlined. That is very bearish and indicates that we could be heading down sooner than expected. It also indicates that the move down is likely to be sharp and swift. If we are going to pullback further then that is the way to do it. The harder and faster we fall the more likely we are to get a reversal that puts an end to this bear market. The other option is 1-2+ years of sideways action and who would prefer that?! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 93)Over the past five days I have been calling for a rally to $7,950. At the same time keeping a close eye on the triangle that started forming on 2/6, which I am considering a no trade zone. Today I have changed my position and would recommend looking for an exit if you have an open long. Depending on your entry there should sill be plenty of time to exit at breakeven or even a small profit over the next couple days. Yesterday I mentioned that the Stochastic had not been this oversold since 8/18/2015. Now %K and %D have crossed over and are posturing back upwards. From here I am expecting a 2-14 day rally before heading back downward. Below I have outlined the reasons which have caused me to turn from fully bullish into a short term bear. I have also outlined the key areas of resistance that I will be watching out for. Finally I have provided the final confirmation that I will be looking for before entering a short position with my entire trading roll. Close below 50 Week Moving Average On Sunday we closed a weekly candle below the 50 period moving average for the first time since 2015. Last time we did that we proceeded to fall by 60% over the next year and it took almost two years to climb back it’s prior value. If we follow a similar path from here then it would put us at $3,000 per Bitcoin this time next year. Weekly TK Cross on Ichimoku Cloud There was a TK cross on the weekly for the first time since 5-26-2014. Shortly afterwards the price proceeded to fall by 73% over the next 7.5 months. That would put us at $2,000 per BTC in the middle of December. Bull div in the OBV shows move money going into Bitcoin over the past three months than coming out. Indicates that a rally should ensue. Did not see this divergence in 2014 and it is one of the only bullish indications that I am still seeing. Volume gap in the Visible range points to $4,200 Areas of Resistance 1. Entry: $7,675 on or around 5/31 (Horizontal & Trend) 2. $7,950 on or around 6/4 (Horizontal & Trend) 3. $8,050 on or around 6/4 (Horizontal & Trend) 4. $8,745 on or around 6/11 (Trend & Daily Fractal) 5. $10,055 (Weekly Fractal) Short Sell Entry A) If price falls below $7,025 in the next two weeks then it is highly likely we will fall by 15%+ and it is also likely we will breakdown through $6,000 support. B) Could also stagger orders to sell levels of resistance outlined above. Set 25% of your roll at each area of resistance and set stop loss above daily fractal at $8,800 or weekly fractal at $10,055 Personal I much prefer the risk:reward of option A. Anything can happen when Bitcoin is rallying and I think it is much more risky to go for the latter option. It does offer a greater rate of return, but is that worth the amount of times you get stopped out shorting against FOMO buyers? One last note about my general philosophy in regards to shorting Bitcoin. I am a hodler and will be until the day I die. I fund my margin account with Bitcoin. Therefor a short sale is a form of a hedge and is not nearly as risky as people can make it out to be - especially in a bear market! I will have my stop losses set and consider it to be a win/win situation. If Bitcoin continues to tank then I will be in a good position with a leveraged short. If Bitcoin rallys through my stop loss then I will be in a better position, based on how much of my personal net worth is invested into crypto. Smash the like and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 92)Over the past four days I have been calling for a bounce to $7,950. That is due to being oversold across the board. We haven’t been this far below the 12 & 26 day EMA’s on the daily chart in about 2 months. The alternative to a bounce is finding a range that would lead up back to equilibrium. We have been ranging on top of my longer term bull trend (green dotted) since the 24th. It looks like we could be breaking down through that area of support as we speak. I have re evaluated the charts, using longer time frames and still feel confident that we are in for a bounce. The Stochastic on the daily has not been this oversold since 8/18/2015 when the price was $209. We had recently broken out from the multiyear down trend and pulled back for a retest of that trend (chart below). 5 weeks later the price was up over 100%. On the other hand, the triangle that started forming on 2/6 has been 66% completed and a breakout is expected to occur any day. If the daily closes under $7,215 then I would consider the triangle broken down and it could get bloody sooner rather than later. I am still waiting on the sidelines until the triangle breaks. Until then happy trading and go bulls! Don't forget that following is always free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 91)Over the last couple days I have been calling for a $7,950 retest. That call is based on trendlines and moving averages. If I wasn’t in a no trade zone then I would have maxed out my position by now. Falling below $7,500 while I was asleep did make me second guess my prediction. However, after reevaluating I am still confident that we will bounce before falling below $7,250. I expect this last move down was a long squeeze and/or a bear trap meant to trigger stop losses and shakeout over leveraged longs. If we do not get back above $7,500 in the next 24 hours then it will be time to reevaluate again. Selling off from here would be extremely bearish. At a minimum I expect us to range along the bull trend line (green dotted) until we meet the three week downtrend line (red dotted). The weekly candle will close today and it is threatening to close under the 50 week moving average for the first time since 2013. If that happens then expect the downward momentum to increase rapidly over the next week. If bearish I would still be waiting to open a short until we retest the 12 and 26 day moving averages (daily chart) and/or trend line. If bullish then now is the time to open a position and congratulate yourself for being able to walk with such enormous balls. Until next time happy trading and go bulls! Remember to like, comment, and subscribe if you found this helpful !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 90)Over the last couple of days I have been calling for a retest of $7,950. If bearish that would be a good spot to open a short. If bullish, $7,350 - $7,500 is still providing a very attractive risk:reward on a long. I am remaining on the sidelines until the triangle that started on 2/6 breaks one way or the other. We are fast approaching the 66% benchmark, which is where the break is expected to occur. That should be happening in the next 1-3 days. In order to breakout to the upside we would need to be trading above $9,000 - which requires getting through a lot of resistance in a short amount of time. If longing from the $7,500 area then I would take full profits at $7,950 and wait for further development from there. The bears have a lot of momentum on their side and there will be horizontal and trend resistance waiting just under $8,000. That will also be the 3rd touch of the down trend that started on 5-6 (red dotted). The 3rd touch of a trendline is when traders are most confident. The daily Stochastic is screaming oversold and indicates that we should be in for a 3-5+ day rally. If that is the case then we could be right on schedule to break the triangle to the upside. In the meantime I will be relaxing with a massage this afternoon and enjoying my time away from the charts. Happy trading and go bulls! A like/comment/follow a day keeps the bears completely away!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 89)Over the past couple of days we have been dancing on the longer term bull trend line (green dotted). We got a bounce from $7,250 that was short lived. Resistance at $7,650 sent us back down for a retest of the bull trend line. I do not believe that we are in danger of breaking down through that area of support just yet. We are still in oversold conditions from the pullback on May 22nd and are highly likely to bounce for a retest of the downtrend that started on May 6th (red dotted). The daily chart has not been so far below the 12 & 26 EMA's since April 1st and that points toward a reversion to the mean over the next couple days. Nevertheless I am remaining on the sidelines until the triangle breaks that started forming Feb 6th. Longing here does provide a very favorable risk:reward, however I have gotten burned too much by being a bull as of late and am content to wait for further confirmation. Happy trading and go bulls! A like, comment and follow a day keeps the bears completely away!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 88)Yesterday I expected a bounce off of $7,950 support, but I stayed away from opening a long after getting burned these last few weeks. Today we are looking at the last line of support before it will be time to put on my bear suit and join the enemy. If you can beat em, join em! We are currently bouncing off of the trend line (green dotted) that I drew on May 15 in the Bitcoin 2018 Bull Trend Post . I will be watching very closely to see how much steam this bounce has behind it. At a minimum I expect it to take us back to $7,950. That is where the bears would be waiting to turn prior support into resistance. That would also be the third point of contact on the down trend that started on 5/6 (red dotted). The third touch is expected to be the most potent and that is where we will see confident selling out of the bears. If we can make it through the strong resistance at $8,000 - $8,200 then bulls will be able to breath a momentary sight of relief. Conversely that area would provide an attractive risk reward ratio for a short entry if you're into that kind of thing. I will also be closely watching for the completion of the triangle that started forming on 2/6 (pink). It will be 66% completed within the next 3-5 days and that it when a breakout is expected to occur. Breaking the green bull trend would also have us breaking down through the triangle. Talk about a crucial price point! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 87)Yesterday I was fully expecting a bounce off of the hammer doji and horizontal support at $8,200. My stop loss was set at $8,097 and that was triggered a few hours after my post. I have gotten rekt going long over the last couple weeks, and that has forced me to zoom out on the charts and re-evaluate. I have used a fresh chart to illustrate what I am looking at. Over the last two months we have been forming a triangle pattern. A breakout is expected to occur when the triangle is 66% completed. That has been highlighted in yellow and is set to occur on or around 5-28. According to Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948) Edwards and Magee suggests that roughly 75% of triangles marked a continuation pattern. A breakout to the upside would indicate a $15,183 price target and according to Thomas Bulkowski , 66% of bullish breakouts hit the price target. However, we are currently forming a downtrend that comes to a head on 5-27 at $7,117. That lines up within a day of the expected triangle breakout. Referring back to Thomas Bulkowski the average bearish breakout is expected to decline 17%. That would indicate a $5,907 price target. In the next 24 hours I will be watching for horizontal and trend resistance at $8,000. If we can breakthrough that that we could get right back on track for breaking out of the triangle to the upside. As long as we remain inside the triangle I am considering Bitcoin in a no trade zone. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 86)Yesterday I started to build a long position at $8,375. I entered ¼ of my position and waited for further confirmations. I was fully expecting a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 day EMA’s (6 hour chart) and unfortunately that has failed to materialize. We continued to pull back through both of the longer term bull trend lines (green dotted and orange solid) and now we are retesting the crucial area of $8,200. We just closed a textbook hammer doji and I expect to see a bounce from here. I will be watching closely to see how much steem this bounce has behind it. If we resist $8,400 - $8,500 then it will be time to get out of this position. We need to create a new local high above $8,600 otherwise I expect us to come crashing down through $8,000. If we can establish a new local high then we should form a diamond bottom that would provide a nice base of support. Until next time happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez