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Biotech ETF Double Top Drop To Technical SupportThe SPDR S&P Biotech ETF began its departure from the bearish double top around the beginning of May. Typically the stock drops toward its last strong support level, and most times drops below that as well. Currently, the stock has been trending down, but is yet to make it to this shared support at 66.30. With the gains for the ETF on June 1, it could be an excellent time to setup a short position. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 51.3469. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is neutral. The ETF could move either direction but may not be prone to volatile swings. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.4073. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down and the 50 day moving average for the TSI has been on top and parallel for at least two weeks. This is an indicator the ETF could continue its overall downtrend. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9448 and the negative is at 0.9331. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a tight channel and are both below 1. The first indicator to cross above 1 could be the prevailing direction in which the ETF will move. The stochastic oscillator K value is 28.7305 and D value is 35.2426. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently trending down, but has at least five days until it could reach oversold territory. This will be the key indicator to watch on when the potential bottom of the downward movement is reached. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner.
AMEX:XBIShort
by StockSignaler
Will The Bears Viciously Attack Lowe's Again?Lowe's is setting up to repeat previous large declines after its most recent earnings call. The stock has been in a bullish trend since 2015. The stock has cycled in tight channels up and down throughout this bullish run. Currently Lowe's just repeated movement that has resulted in a two quick 13% drops. Near-term downward movement is outlined below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 30.2113. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is near oversold levels. This indicator does contradict my projected movement, however, both previous similar pattern instances kept the RSI hovering around oversold levels during the course of their drops. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 1.8606. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down. More importantly the 50 day moving average on the TSI has begun to trend down. This exact same thing happened the last two times the stock gave up 13%. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7017 and the negative is at 1.1622. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the stock is dropping per the trend and position of these indicators. The stochastic oscillator K value is 23.1291 and D value is 22.7512. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current signal has the stock flirting with oversold. Similar to the RSI on the last two drops of 13%, the stochastic hovered around oversold territory for a while. This scenario could be repeated this time as well. During the bull trend, the stock has cycled up and down. When the stock breaks down from its upcycle trend, the stock has dropped 13%. This occurred in early 2016 and again in August of 2016. Both drops occurred within 25 trading days. On May 24, the stock broke down from its recent uptrend. A 13% drop would take the stock down to 69.85. A fairly likely drop could bring the stock down to at least 75.50 in the near-term. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 34 trading days if not sooner.
NYSE:LOWShort
by StockSignaler
Time For Humana To Naturally Cycle DownHumana Inc has been in a clearly defined bullish trend since July 2016. As of the close on May 15, this stock is at the top of the cycle which is near a strongly established resistance line. The projected future movements are highlighted below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 73.8915. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is just beginning to exit overbought territory and should encourage the stock to move bearishly down. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 34.8840. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2844 and the negative is at 0.7283. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the positive indicator had been moving up, but the upward action is slowing. The stock should begin to move down and the positive and negative indicators will begin to move closer together. The stochastic oscillator K value is 85.7857 and D value is 88.5560. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently in overbought territory and the D is above the K value meaning the stock should begin to fall. A similar pattern with volume occurred in December 2016. The stock moved up on greater than average volume for 4 days in a row before the stock began to sell off on greater than average volume. The same thing occurred on May 15. During this sell off in December, the stock sold off around 10% over the next 20 trading days. Even though something like this is possible right now, I conservatively believe the stock will hold to its white-dotted trendline which is a drop of at least 4%. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside, although definitive downward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 33 trading days if not sooner. More at LimitLessLifeSkills!
NYSE:HUMShort
by StockSignaler
Everything Energy Is Down, XOPThe SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Fund has been in a defined bearish trend for all of 2017. Due to this bearish movement, the 100 day moving average (DMA) is about to cross below the 150 DMA. This actual event has occurred 6 times in the history of the fund and has resulted in a minimal drop of 1.541%. It has a median drop of 6.918% and maximum drop of 25.563% over the following 22 trading days. Although I typically write on events that have occurred, this event is likely and greater benefit could be gained by making moves earlier. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 43.0611. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been moving lower. The RSI has been trending lower since May 2016. Even though the RSI typically cycles between overbought and oversold levels, that has not necessarily been the case with this fund. Overall the RSI is failing to make newer highs which is another significant signal of downward movement. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the RSI stays below this trendline. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -16.2542. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is trending down. Similar to the RSI, it is been trending down and failing to make new highs since May 2016. However, one new high was achieved near the end of 2017, before falling back into the downtrend. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the TSI stays below this trendline. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8265 and the negative is at 1.0848. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund slightly moving up recently, but should begin its downtrend again. The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.6852 and D value is 16.1343. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the fund has been flirting with oversold territory for at least two weeks. Most likely one of two things will occur. The fund will continue to slowly move down with up days causing the stochastic to stabilize and rise even though the fund continues its downward bias. The second possibility would have the fund rise up and out of the downtrend either temporarily or permanently. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4.7% over the next 32 trading days.
AMEX:XOPShort
by StockSignaler
NVIDIA Could Be In For Major DropOn April 28, 2017, NVIDIA stock crossed below its 100 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 106 times and the stock drops a minimum of 0.327%. The median drop is 6.170% and maximum drop is 44.146% over the next 12 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 54.3666. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down since reaching its high around February 7, 2017. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -7.3622. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading also declares the stock has been moving down since reaching its high around February 7, 2017. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0986 and the negative is at 0.8457. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been up over the recent two weeks, but has begun moving down. The stochastic oscillator K value is 90.1054 and D value is 91.7037. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is overbought and will move down. This stock has flirted with the 100 DMA for the past four days. It crossed above on day Tuesday, below on Wednesday, above and Thursday, with the final close below on Friday. Although this pattern has never occurred exactly, similar instances occurred in November 2000, February 2001, August 2001, February 2002, February 2007, December 2007, May 2011, October 2012. The final cross down lead to a 44.146%, 19.294%, 37.098%, 19.964%, 14.52%, 32.122%, 5.986%, 10.038% respective drop over the following 12 trading days. These drops all seem drastic but could be a signal of chaos for the NVDA stock. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 4.05% if not more over the next 12 trading days. Based on the similar historical flirtations with the 100 DMA, Stochastic, RSI, and TSI, the drop could be much more than the projected 4.05%. FUNDAMENTAL TAKE: Earnings for NVIDIA will occur in this timeframe. The estimated EPS is much lower than it has been which could also signal downward movement in the longer term. This stock is incredibly overpriced in comparison to similar stocks in this sector.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by StockSignaler
Bearish Doubling Down For Delta AirlinesOn April 26, 2017, Delta Airlines ( DAL ) crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 41 times and the stock drops a minimum of 0.194%. It has a median loss of 6.485 % and maximum loss of 40.441% over the next 15 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 52.8562. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock recently moved up into a more neutral movement state. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -17.9842. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0188 and the negative is at 0.8566. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving up, but the positive is dropping and negative is rising after today's session. The stochastic oscillator K value is 71.7501 and D value is 61.2473. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is approaching overbought territory and should cycle down soon. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 3.82% over the next 15 trading days. Just two days prior to our current downward DMA cross, Delta crossed over its 150 DMA. When the downward cross occurs a few trading days after an upward cross, the stock always drops. Since the end of the financial crisis in 2009 this has occurred in January 2011, October 2011, December 2011 (3 times), October 2012 (4 times), November 2012, July 2015, and April 2016. The stock dropped 6.369%, 12.993%, 5.483%, 3.879%, 2.317%, 3.535%, 4.814%, 5.100%, 5.572%, 3.560%, 1.261%, and 13.494% respectively. The median drop of these 12 occasions is 4.957%.
NYSE:DALShort
by StockSignaler
Bank Of America Heading Down To Test SupportOn April 6, 2017, the Bank of America Corporation ( NYSE:BAC ) 20 day moving average (MA) crossed below its 50 day MA. Historically this has occurred 83 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 2.296% and a maximum loss of 15.389% over the next 7 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 40.4748. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slowly trending down, but not clear if a volatile price swing is on the horizon. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -8.0671. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current direction declares the stock is moving down. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1688. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is steadily moving down. The stochastic oscillator K value is 61.4618 and D value is 58.2159. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up, but the divergence between the K and D is quickly shrinking and could also head down in line with all of the other technical indicators. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 4% over the next 7 trading days. There are many trendlines in play, but it is inconclusive which one will take hold next. Previous resistance around 22.20 has recently become new support and could be a viable level to be revisited.
NYSE:BACShort
by StockSignaler
Sell NVIDIA Now!On April 4, 2017, NVIDIA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) crossed below the 50 and 100 day moving average (MA). Both events have occurred on the same day 27 times with a minimal loss of 0.33% and median loss of 5.99%. Historically the stock has crossed below the 50 day MA 144 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 3.802%. Historically the stock has crossed below the 100 day MA 105 times resulting in a minimal loss of 0.327% and a median loss of 5.460%. The maximum loss for all three instances is 44.146% and all information regards the next 10 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 39.7048. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending down. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 2.7816. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving up but could reverse based on all other indicators. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0468. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock was moving up, but has begun to retreat and the negative is moving upward. The stochastic oscillator K value is 63.3372 and D value is 74.8670. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is moving down. This indicator has been floating above the oversold level for a while. Continued downward price action is warranted. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 4% over the next 10 trading days. The stock is also in a downward wedge and near the apex. The stock is due to breakout of the wedge and this trip to the resistance level around 96.60 could lead to a significantly lower drop. Considering the stock has always dropped when it crosses below the 100 day MA and when the 50 and 100 MA occur on the same date, a drop should occur quickly.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by StockSignaler
Still room for Ford to run...downOn March 24, 2017 the Ford Motor Company (F), 50 day moving average (MA) crossed above its 200 day. Historically this has occurred 37 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.197% and maximum drop of 23.281% over the next 23 trading days. Currently the 50 MA and 200 MA have crossed each other 4 times in the last 27 trading days. This tells us there are either big swings or stagnation. Both times the 50 MA crossed over the 200 MA, the highest gain was only 1.269%. The last two times cross ups and cross downs occurred close to each other was before and during the "financial crisis" in 2007 and 2008. On both of these occasions the maximum gain on the cross up was 0.897% over the next 25 trading days, while the stock dropped 20.213% and 8.705% when 50 MA crossed below 200 MA (which is our current situation). Since November 2007, the minimal drop of the stock when the 50 MA crosses below the 200 MA has been 2.778% (October 2014). The other three minimal results were losses of 4.000% (January 2014), 5.197% (July 2015), and 7.0393% (June 2012). When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 26.6610. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is approaching oversold, but still has room to drop. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -8.4195. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3790. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. Even though it is at a high level, it can continue to go higher in a negative manner for the stock. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current downtrend, the stock could drop at least another 4.70% over the next four weeks.
NYSE:FShort
by StockSignaler
NEXT 6 TRADING DAYS FOR US STEELOn March 24, 2017 the United States Steel (X), crossed below its 100 day moving average. Historically this has occurred 152 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.249% and maximum drop of 31.518% over the next 10 trading days. This last occurred twice in October 2016 and the stock dropped 12% over the following 6 trading. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 37.0645. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is looking for direction and has been heading downward since February 21. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.6478. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1048. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward, with the most recent highly negative reading being 1.3075 on August 25, 2016. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could drop another 4% before turning upward again. A recently held support area exists at 31.33
NYSE:XShort
by StockSignaler