Get started

4xforecaster

Geo-In-Geo Cycle Completion | $AUD $JPY #RBA #BOJ #aussie #yenSYNOPSIS: GEO: We return to this pair chart anew, looking at a geometric cycle completion of 2 Geo's: In essence, a rally to the 1-4 Line of the Geo is called for, based on the concomitant completion of a Geo (Black) within a Geo (Blue). CONDITIONS: 1 - AGGRESSIVE: Look for a slight retracement to the 78.619/78.139 range -- INVALIDATION: BACA < 77.582 2 - CONSERVATIVE: A break out to the topside of the 77.582/82.428 range -- CONFIRMATION: BACA > 82.428 3 - TARGETING the 1-4 Line for partial profit ... Consideration of the 1-3 Line validation off of Point-2 (top dashed line in faint blue) IF price remains above the BLUE 1-4 Line and below the BLACK 1-4 Line. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Targets defined by Predictive/Forecasting Model are as follows: 1 - TG-Hi = 91.083 - 28 FEB 2016 AND 2 - TG-Hix = 92.808 - 28 FEB 2016 Note that both are Qual-Targets, so they offer a lesser probability of attainment compared to Quant-Targets, but would impart a great reversible power upon price - See more explanation on this methodology here: - www.linkedin.com OVERALL : Bullish outlook with invalidation level at 77.852, aggressive ("EAGLE") trigger at the 78.619/78.139 range, and conservative trigger at 82.428. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado, U.S.A. ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
12
$AAPL Seeks Technical Support | #forex #aapl #fibonacci #nasdaqFriends, I light of the recent market decline, I thought to put $AAPL under varying strengths of technical lenses, looking for potential support levels. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: First of all, standing on its own, the "Model" defined the following bearish targets: 1 - TG-1 = 100.28 - 22 AUG 2015 2 - TG-Lo = 91.86 - 22 AUG 2015 3 - TG-Lox = 86.40 - 22 AUG 2015 and 4 - Watch Line = 79.11 - 22 AUG 2015 QUANT VS. QUAL TARGETS, FIBONACCI ORDERS & BEARISH TRENCHES: Above targets carry a vanishing probability of hit, starting with TG-1, which represents a quantitative target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... etc.) compared to qualitative targets, such as the next three. Whereas a quantitative target is associated with past or future pivot definition, it is also associated with mere retracements in the Fibonacci order not to exceed 0.618. In contrast, qualitative targets will tend to define reversals, that is Fibonacci reversals exceeding 0.618, and often reversing to Fibonacci extensions in the order of 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618. For this reason, I have also defined a probable Bearish Entrenchment if and once price were to rally and challenge the current market gravity once any of the QUAL-Targets (TG-Lo, TG-Lox, WL) were used as a reversal springboard. This overhead bearish entrenchment is defined by a very narrow range: 131.26/132.79. STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS: Aside the Predictive/Forecasting Model, and supportive of most of above targets, one can appreciate the near-alignment of TG-1 = 100.28 with a prior historical structural high at 100.72 right in 17 SEP 2012. Similarly, TG-Lo = 91.86 comes in a near alignment with a prior, discreet structural high at 92.00 reach in 09 APR 2012. These alignments between the Predictive/Forecasting Model and historical structures is likely to impose significant resistance to bears. OCCULT GEOMETRY: NODE & NODULAR CORE: As discussed several times before (Google "node nodal core nodule nodular core 4xforecaster"), the presence of seemingly innocuous, discreet retracements within swing, often imposes support, resistance and define additional temporizing pivots in subsequent price advances. Here, a large retracement defined between 100.72 and 55.01 offers a 50% point that comes in near alignment with the Predictive model's outer most tolerance level, a level which typically suggests that, if reached, further analysis would need to occur at 4-times the current timeframe (e.g.: M15 to H1, H1 to H4, ... etc.). The alignment between the Nodal Core and the Watch Line is not predictive, but indicative of a need to augment timeframe (i.e.: lessen the sensitivity of the Predictive/Forecasting Model). OVERALL: There is much more discussion to be had in technical analysis. Above is simply a few technical markers worth heeding, as they tend to correlate structurally. A simpler reciprocal ab = cd symmetry could also be applied as shown in the chart, and one may have to consider the possibility of the classic Head & Shoulder development. In any case, I tend to hold any personal directional sentiment and instead rely on the stand-alone "Model", whose targets have been defined above. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by 4xForecaster
16
$SPX - Model Remains Intent On Bullish Targets, Interim DeclineQuick Analysis: STRUCTURAL HURDLES: Two levels to watch for, each likely to determine the onset of a bullish or bearish price action, respectively ... Namely: 1 - One proximal yet technically at 2134.71, based on probable bearish entrenchment and 2 - A second at 1821.61, based on price behavior along this line. ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS:: WAVE COUNT: Wave count remains in doubt, although there is a good probability that we are entering a corrective phase. At this time, I am discerning a multi-year primary motive wave, extending from late to present. Note that the morphology of this impulse suggests a Wave-3 Extension. EQUALITY: Considering the nature of Wave-3 extension, this typically calls for equality of amplitude and time shared by Wave-1 and Wave-5. One can only approximate what timing might mean at this time, but it might be worth noting that the amplitude is maintained as shown, were price to find renewed elan from the lesser-degree Wave-4, which is a standard expectation in corrective wave form and function. ALTERNATIONS: Primary wave-2 and wave-4 appear to comply to alternations, whereby the former completed a Flat (3-3-5 internals), compared to the initiation of a probable zig-zag ("ZZ" with 5-3-5 internals, currently terminating a probable internal wave-b). If current correction is indeed a ZZ, expect a sharp counter-trend to the downside. This is as timid a wave analysis AS I am willing to RISK, as I am remain unsure about the current status of the correction. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The "Model" remains intent on two bullish targets, namely: 1 - TG-Hi = 2207.48 - 13 SEP 2015 AND 2 - TG-Hix = 2404.35 = 13 SEP 2015 I have produced several analyses on this index over the past year and some, and most of the data generated by the Predictive/Forecasting Model has stubbornly approximated these values. So, for the sake of simplicity, I will make this recent analysis the defining moment of these recurrent bullish targets. OCCULT GEOMETRIES: There is no outstanding geometry at this time. A simple channel remain in force as illustrate below. Any emerging geometry would be published if it appears at the 4-hour frame and above. OVERALL: Recent analyses in $USD have support a probable interim decline in the #USDollar index. Considering the positive correlation that exists between this benchmark and the $USDJPY (imminent decline per recent analysis), one should remains open to the possibility of a significant decline. A break below 1821.61 would also open the floor to bearish targets. I often "force" the Predictive/Forecasting Model to "look at the other side" in terms of possible counter-trend scenarios. The following chart illustrate what target might emerge if such lesser-probable downturn were to occur: Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
SP:SPX
by 4xForecaster
22
Anatomy Of A (limited) Retracement | $WTI #crude #oil $USOilSYNOPSIS: PRICE ANALYSIS: 1 - Dominant trend remains bearish in DAILY chart - See larger scale analysis here: bit.ly 2 - This 4-HOUR chart highlights circumstantial technical evidence of an interim rally: -- First bullish failure sets price into a descending series of 0.386-Fibonacci retracements -- Last retracement represents a higher-order of Fibonacci level, implying nascent bulls overcoming bears 3 - A larger retracement is expected to occur up to 42.57, or approximating 0.618-Fib of the overall decline: RSI ANALYSIS: 1 - A series of negative divergences (not bearish divergence) heralded a high-probability decline -- A negative divergence occurs where RSI carves a higher-high against a lower lower or double-top in price - Expect a significant decline once this high-probability event occurs (higher prob than bearish divergences) -- Each negative divergences occurred with a single penetration of the 70-Line - Bears are pressing against bulls -- The most recent RSI illustrates a double 70-Line validation - Bulls are pressing against bears. USOil - DAILY Chart: USOil - 4-HOUR Chart: Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ---- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster ----- .
FX:USOIL
by 4xForecaster
90
Resistance At Geo's Rule #2; Bears Eye 170.70 | #bitcoin $BTCSYNOPSIS: A long silence here on $BTC #BitStamp, as the Geo completes an imperfect 5-prime (see parallel lines validation at 5') - Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, this 5-prime definition called for a rally with a HIGH probability target corresponding to the price level of Point-4. Turns out, this is exactly what price did, as it rallied from 5' but failed to continue its ascent above the price level of Point-4 - See light PINK range in the following chart: GEO CONSTRUCTION: For the adept in Geo, look for a near perfect construction, where 1-2 Leg represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, the 2-3 Leg represents a complex Elliott Wave (EW) ZZ, the 3-4 Leg represents a simple EW ZZ, and price departs from the validation of the Geo's 1-3 Line. GEO's OFF-SET RULE: As a reminder, the Geo's Off-Set Rule represent a geometric compensation where distortion of price along the 1-3 and 2-4 Line will tend to displace the high probability target, such that: Off-Set Rule #1 - If price rallies from Point-5, the HIGH probability target lies along the 1-4 Line (same as Wolfe Wave target); Off-Set Rule #2 - If price rallies from Point-5', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-4 (as was the case in this example); AND Off-Set Rule #3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-3. NOTE that the relative incidence of these rules are such that: Off-Set Rule #2 > Off-Set Rule #1 >>> Off-Set Rule #3 PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Aside from this background geometry, the Predictive/Forecasting Model offers the two following high-probability target: 1 - TG-1 = 266.41 - 09 FEB 2016 AND 2 - TG-Lox = 170.70 - 09 FEB 2016 INVALIDATION: The higher target that were defined last November remain unattainable at this point, based on the interdicting nature of the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, whereby price remains subordinate to the Geo's 1-4 Line. However, invalidation of this rule should occur IF price BACA > 1-4 Line (RED arrows), in which case, bearish target would also become invalid. OVERALL: Bearish outlook based on background Geo's rule and supported by Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish target - Invalidation depends upon price breaching above the 1-4 Line. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: ----- .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by 4xForecaster
43
$Nikkei / $JPN225 At Critical Level; Favors Decline | $JPY #BOJ TECHNICAL SYNOPSIS: 1 - Predictive/Forecasting Model defines 20780 as critical high/High-prob. reversal level 2 - Technical analysis would define 20961 as probable resistance level based on June 1997 and April 2000 structural level and last month's failure to break above same level. 3 - Current bar carves out a lower-low relative to last month's bar Net Bias = BEARISH BEARISH SCENARIO - 50% FIB: Decline would likely seek Fibonacci handles at 38.6%, 50.0% or 61.8% significant retracement level. However, first retracement offers little to no past structural levels for reaction when compared to significant pivot range at the corresponding 50.0% Fib retracement level. INVALIDATION: Invalidation would occur if price broke above and closed above 20961. For now, market remains taut to the upside. OVERALL: Bears are gaining ground, defending a historical 20961 level. Market is taut to the upside, while technical profile is tilting towards bearish favors. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
FX:JPN225Short
by 4xForecaster
5
Model Eyes High-Probability Rally to 307.50 | #linkedin #lnkdSYNOPSIS : PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: - Bullish - Top-most target = 307.50 MARKET GEOMETRY: - Internal reciprocal ab = cd symmetry - Geometry aligns with Model's 307.50 GEO: - Probable price attainment = 1-3 Line - Invalidation occurs < 165.57 OVERALL: - Bullish outlook - Invalidation if and once price BACA < 165.57 Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: 4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster ----- .
LLong
by 4xForecaster
6
$EUR v $USD - Nascent Geo Eyes Low, Then High Targets | #euroQUICK ANALYSIS: As per recent analyses in $USD major and minor crosses, the unanimous technical voice speaks of a decline in the US Dollar. It would take invalidation events in all of these charts (see today's analyses in $NZDUSD, $USDCAD, $USDCHF $USDMXN, $USDNOK, $USDZAR, as well as $XAUUSD and #USDollar charts where a variety of technical points are tending towards a degradation of the USD, fully understanding that this statement occurs at the week-end of a #Fex statement of a probable rate hike in December). On a pure technical basis, which is what all of these analyses derive their data (quantitative supplies data to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, whereas proprietary geometries supply the background of high-probability interim moves), the bias supports a rally in the #euro. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The "Model" defined two sequential targets, first a probable moderate decline, followed by a probable rallying, such that: 1 - TG-Hi = 1.13205 - 07 NOV 2015 AND 2 - TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015 -- Note that a prior TG-Hi target (faded yellow i the upper chart) has been invalidated. GEO: The Geo is a refinement of the Wolfe Wave, taking into account geometric compensation - See a example provided today in the $GBPAUD here: - The entire analysis can also be found here: bit.ly ) In this particular chart, it remains a bit premature to define the borders of the Geo. However, combined with the Predictive/Forecasting Model, the technical resolution improves significantly, such that the the following outlines appear: INVALIDATION: While this speculative analysis hinges on two of my most reliable instruments (Predictive/Forecasting Model at the foreground and proprietary geometries at the background), it remains an exercise of probability, which at this time favors a rallying from, then into the aforementioned values. For a more concrete invalidation level, I suggest that 1.04613 be regarded as an adverse excursive value to use for such invalidation to occur. OVERALL: All $USD analyses completed to this day each pronounce a decline in the US Dollar, by one technical format or another. In addition, antipodean references, such as #gold, $XAUUSD, $JNUG all call for their own strengthening. A prudent approach would seek invalidation of these analyses in just a few of the posted charts to keep the trader's foot off of an uncertain terrain - Do the due, and consider all this content purely educational. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
20
Model Eyes 0.6804; Wolfe Wave Completes | $AUD #gold #Forex #RBASYNOPSIS: PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on the following bearish targets, as defined this past October, 2015: 1 - TG-Lo = 0.68691 - 27 OCT 2015 AND 2 - TG-Lox = 0.68037 - 27 OCT 2015 MARKET GEOMETRY: On a geometric basis, a Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com) completes, with its 1-4 Line pending within the Predictive/Forecasting Model's range. ELLIOTT WAVE GEOMETRY: Elliott Wave Triangle appears to form. A typically counter-rally occurs at/near its terminal Point-E. OVERALL: - BEARISH - Greatest support at 0.68037 Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
7
$USDJPY Nears Completion of Geo's Point-4 | $JPY #yen #forexSYNOPSIS: GEO ANALYSIS: Geo demands a set of internal geometric rules that have been met so far: 1 - The 1-2 Line forms a simple reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, or a simple Elliott Wave zig-zag (ZZ): Here, the 04-1995 to 08-1998 span offers a) An internal ab = cd correction and b) a near-perfect symmetry of this geometric reciprocity. 2 - The 2-3 Line is the most complex of all internals, typically a complex ZZ: Here, the 08-1998 to 10-2011 illustrates a more perfect ab = cd geometry, compared to that formed by the 1-2 Line. 3 - The 3-4 Line is most often the simplest of all internal geometries, as ilustrated in this case. 4 - Pending here is the 4-5 Line, which is most often as simple a geometric development as that of the 3-4 Line. Therefore expect a large ZZ as the most common geometric event. Looking at the overall geometric growth, the internals are a probable series of four internal legs, expressed rhythmically as 3-3-3-3. STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS: Relative to the Geo, price remains bound to three distinct borders - One dynamic and two static: 1 - DYNAMIC BORDER: The 2-4 Line: The 2-4 Line defines the upper border of the Geo. From a trading standpoint and using Fibonacci ranges, consider the possibility of price rallying up to 0.786-Fibonacci relative to the 116.082/125.856 range, as this would bring price to the vicinity of the 2-4 Line. 2 - STATIC BORDER: As just discussed, the 116.082/125.856 range are significant low/high points, respectively, which have tethered price action over the past 8 monthly bars. Whereas a Break Across/Close Across ("BACA") the 116.082 Line would open the floor to bears, similarly, a BACA > 125.856 would likely remain capped by the "tunneling" effect of the 1-4 Line. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The model suggest an imminent completion of the rally that occurred over the 11-2010 to 06-2015 range, which defined the 3-4 Line. Using the structural analysis above, the most prudent stance would be to wait for a confirmation of the BACA < 116.082 level to give further credence to a reversal bearish confirmation. While the line defined as "WL = 70.946 - 17 JAN 2016" represents an ultimate low, intermediate bearish targets (both quantitative and qualitative) will be published once price marches more definitively outside of that 116.082/125.856 range. Again, this is the most prudent stance to adopt at this point, as the market comes to the complete realization of a probable downturn. OVERALL: Bearish outlook. Consider the combination of market geometries, structural analysis and the bearish bias of the Predictive/Forecasting Model as probable cause for an imminent reversal. A conversion of the 116.082 line from support to resistance would offer the most conservative strategy, as one continues to ponder the strength and resiliency of the 116.082 floor. I will now use this thread to post all future $JPY and JPY-related crosses. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ---------- Twitter: @4xfForecast Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster StockTwit: 4xForecaster ---------- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
13
$USD vs. $MXN - Wolfe Wave Offers High-Prob Target | #forexFriends, A Wolfe Wave completed its fifth and last plot at Point-5. This offers a high-probability reversal with this geometry's 1-4 Line a probable level of attainment (along grey dotted line). Alternatively, a high-probability target is offered through the Geo's use of its internal "Geo-Anchoring" (green star points to the best-fit anchor point along the rule-based 2-3 Leg. OVERALL, Wolfe Wave is the dominant geometry in the field, casting its 1-4 Line as a high-probability target. A more proximal target of higher-probability stands via the Geo. Partial off-load might be considered at that level. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
25
$NFLX - Geo/Wolfe Wave Lurking; Eyes Bullish 137.69 TargetSYNOPSIS: Probable interim limited decline (i.e.: higher-low) at or along 2-4 Line (Point-4 remains unconfirmed). Longer term sees completion of geometry at Point-5. Consider Wolfe Wave if price reverses from Point-5 to 1-4 Line - If adverse excursion occurs along the 3-5-prime (5') Line, apply Geo's Off-Set Rule #3. Chart updates and technical notes ("tech-note") to follow whenever pertinent. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster .
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by 4xForecaster
12
$CAD v $CHF - Geo Eyes 0.74965 | #BOC #SNB #Loonie #franc #ForexQUICK ANALYSIS: ( ... This is all educational, not a trade recommendation ... ) First, thank you to @fmg for this timely request in the $CAD/Predictive Room. Second, here is a potential Geo completion at its 5'' position ... Predictive/Forecasting Model recommends waiting pending 0.76940: Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, a high-probability target is defined at the 0.74965/0.74888 range. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster ... Join, follow, learn: tradingview.go2cloud.org ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
9
$NGAS: Model Eyes Further Decline To 1.62 #naturalgas #fibonacciFriends, As the prior DAILY chart reached its lowly targets, price fell to Predictive/Forecasting Model's "Watch Line", an indicator that daily frame action had ceded control to higher timeframe. Based on same Model's formula, we are thus turning to the 4th degree higher frame: Weekly. QUICK ANALYSIS: - Predictive/Forecasting Model: In essence, the Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for further decline, defining a target as: - TG = 1.621 - 26 OCT 2015 MARKET SYMMETRY: Relevance of this target rests also on the proximity of a wide reciprocal ab = cd symmetry that appears to play itself out from the high of 6.484 in the week of 17 FEB 2014 with an intermediate "axis" around which the second leg is forming a probable symmetrical projection. This projected reciprocity is valued at 1.593. FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS: In addition to above tight alignment between the Predictive/Forecasting Model and expected geometric projection, a close alignment adds credence to this vicinity by the projection of the following two Fibonacci values: 1 - 1.414-FE = 1.7373 AND 2 - 1.618-FE = 1.716. MARKET GEOMETRY: Note that a remnant "Geo" from prior analysis subsists in the price field, having defined a Point-5-second (5''). This would be expected of a market that remains exceedingly extended, forcing a geometric distortion of the original Wolfe Wave. The Geo addresses market distortion and adjusts probability targets when price reaches the 5' or 5'' level of definition. In this particular case, we are dealing with a 5'' definition. Hence, the geometric compensation that is expected to occur is based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, which offers a retracement to the price level corresponding to Point-3 as the highest probability level of attainment. This relaxation to the upside is an expected interim development, allowing price to seek the underbelly of the Geo. An alternate way to explain this would be by way of structural analysis, considering that the 1-3 Line of the Geo would offer a once-support-now-resistance validation event, before further downside might resume. OVERALL: A confluence of values appear to concentrate in the 1.737 to 1.593 range, increasing the probability of support in this narrow vicinity. The Predictive/Forecasting Model offers this value as a probable reversal level. If this were to occur, next bullish target would seek validation of a nodular core in the 4.011 to 4.091 range, which defined the aforementioned "axis" for the projected reciprocal symmetry that comes in nearest alignment with same Model. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- Feel free to share and follow analyses, pre-publishing of charts and development of technical analyses by following me on TradingView.com, alias: 4xForecaster - TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster Thank you for your readership, David .
FX:NGASShort
by 4xForecaster
10
$AUD v $NZD - Edu-Trade: Short @1.09405 | #aussie #kiwi #ForexQUICK ANALYSIS - This is an educational trade ("Edu-Trade"), so do the due and cover your assets responsibly. Entry at 1.09405 = "House-Cleaning" (Prop Pattern) Stop-Loss at prior structural top = 1.13471 Targets based on Predictive/Forecasting Model: 1 - TG-1 = 1.05072 - 17 AUG 2015 2 - TG-Lo = 1.02807 - 17 AUG 2015 AND 3 - TG-Lox = 1.01341 - 17 AUG 2015. Note that TG-1 has already been hit based on analysis released this summer (See link below: "$AUDNZD - LESSON: Geo Roots ... ") for a detail of the analysis. Note also that a prior analysis was released with a lower TG-Lo, which belonged to a different timeframe ... We will get that that one with some revision if and once price gets to the Watch Line ("WL") line. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Follow me on ... Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
26
$BTCUSD #bitstamp Stomped, Mulls Decline | #bitcoin $BTC #forexFriends, Just as #bitstamp rallies, it remains unable to break above a significant 275.00/295.89 threashold, best appreciated on a WEEKLY chart, as follows: A large geometry has outlined a Wolfe Wave completion at its Point-5 back on 12 JAN 2015, cratering a nadir at 152.40. However, a rallying from that candle has remained limp and lingering, allowing price to remain aloft that fateful candle's close, just above 211.85. SO, WHAT NOW? At this point, price action has delineated two physical structures, one above within a relatively narrow range of 275.00/295.89 and another below at 211.85, opening the possibility of two directional scenarios: One bullish (less probable) and one bearish (more probale). THE BULLISH SCENARIO: A bullish scenario would have to absorb the bearish nay-sayers that have built a solid entrenchment across this aforementioned 275.00/295.89 range. Looking back, Point-3 of the large geometry offered a subsequent pivot where prior bulls converted to bears, and remained bears at the periods of 02 MAR, 09 MAR and 16 MAR 2015, which correspond to the bars where bulls have failed to climb a blood murk of an uphill. Now, comes 20 JUN 2015 and this current week, where we remain at the low end of the bars, pulled not by gravitational disillusionment, but simply pushed by the same bearish resistance, well entrenched in that range. It is this very range that, if overcome, would convert bears to bull and turn it from a resistance to support, and open the sky up to the price level of Point-4 above, namely the 442.00/453.92 range. THE BEARISH SCENARIO: In the more plausible realm, a decline should the prime object of contemplation here. Not because bears have their moment up above, but simply because this remains the path of least resistance, especially in a technical context. For instance, a Fibonacci cluster between the 1-2 Leg extension at 1.414 and the recent failure from Point-5 to the pivot level, itself extending a 1.618 alignment - This discreet cluster offers room for price to carve out further decline, effectively knocking stop-losses on the way to building a much needed bullish momentum. The most proximate support line remains the multi-year trendline which has imposed consistent support. This is the line which most junior traders will use as their reference, under which they will line up their stop-losses. This is thus the level to keep in sight, which if breached, is likely to cause a stop-loss glutonic spike down to as far as the Fib cluster, which is estimated to wait at about 58.96. This last value is NOT a target, but a reasonable level of support, if indeed this bearish scenario were to play out. OVERALL, price is getting squeeze by significant technical levels. A bullish scenario would have to come by in the tangible form of a major fundamental news release, as the technicals alone lack the weight to pierce through fat bears. In contrast, a bearish scenario would have to contemplate historical support which has widely indoctrinated a generation of Pavlovian cryto'ers, likely herding a field of stop-losses below this susceptible trendline. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by 4xForecaster
189
$USD v. $SEK - Geo Eyes 8.9109 | #elliottwave #fibonacci #forexFriends, This pair was been quite responsive to the Predictive/Forecasting Model on both large and smaller scale - Although, this there has been only two prior predictive analysis and forecasting - Following are two of these forecasts: $USDSEK - Short-Term Target ... Hit. bit.ly $USDSEK - Mid-Term Target ... Hit. bit.ly FORECASTING THE HOURLY FRAME: This time, we return to a "in-between" timeframe, having defined a target as TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT 2015 in the hourly timeframe - This target is defined using the Predictive/Forecasting Model as an autonomous feature that I use as my foreground leader. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODE BREAKS DOWN ELLIOTT WAVE AND GEO: What I have added to the price field are geometries, one borrowed from the Elliott Wave patterns in the form of a triangle, with internals of (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) defined at the Intermediate Degree (i.e.: wave counts defined over weeks to month) with defining convergence between lines A-C and B-D. The other is the Geo, with its own internal requirements, such as a reciprocal ab = cd within the 1-2 Leg, complex zig-zag (typically TZ) within its 2-3 Leg, a simpler ZZ between 3-4 Leg, and convergence of 1-3 and 2-4 lines, both of same directional slope (up in this particular case). Note that the Geo was simply born as a refinement of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com) using the Predictive/Forecasting Model as the dissecting tool. In the same manner and procedure as I have dome with the WW leading to refinements of internals and improving the precision of forecasts of reversal levels that would define the entire geometry, I am now turning to Elliott Wave's Contracting Triangle for a similar biopsy, although the waves are already well and authoritatively defined (www.ElliottWave.com) - There is nothing to add here, except being able to predict where whether the triangle will predictably post an overshoot, undershoot or pure alignment with the geometry's A-C line projection. It might not matter in smaller frames, but daily, weekly and monthly might cause unbearable adverse excursions. Note that in this analysis, the Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes an OVER-shoot at TG-Hi, short of the expected 1.131-Fibonacci level which often defines that overshoot, such that: E = 1.131 x A. OVERALL: Bullish outlook with possible interim decline to depths defined in dashed arrows. Target as discussed above. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ------ Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
19
$XPT v $USD - Predictive Model Eyes Lower Targets | #platinumQUICK ANALYSIS: Prior analysis released this past May 2015 is replaced by this update. Following defines and explains the Predictive/Forecasting Model's targets, as well as the "Geo": PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The following targets are defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model as: 1 - TG-2 = 849.0 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a quantitative target ("Quant-Target") ... All Quant-Targets are usually associated with retracements (not reversal), as well as the definition of future R/S levels if entering a new price territory, or validation of prior R/S levels if revisiting prior price territories. The relevance of a Quant-Target is that it is usually associated with a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618; 2 - TG-Lo = 629.8 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a qualitative target ("Qual-Target") ... All Qual-Targets are usually associated with reversals (not just retracement), defining a probable tip-top or bottom-tip reversal if entering a new price territory. The relevance of a Qual-Target is that it is usually associated with a reversal in the Fibonacci order of 0.618 to extensions levels of 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618; AND 3 - TG-Lox = 487.9 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a Qual-Target and abides to same condition as above. GEO: The Geo is a refinement of the Mr. William "Bill" Wolfe's namesake Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com), taking into consideration internal construction conditions, as well as compensating for geometric distortions that occur in the Wolfe Wave. While the Wolfe Wave defines the 1-4 Line projection as a target once price reverses from Point-5, this target is sometimes missed by a margin that relates to how much adverse excursion occurred off of Point-5. Hence, the Geo takes into account these adverse excursions in price, which define an altered, distorted geometry ("Geo"). This distorted geometry now associates Point-5, 5' and 5'' with high-probability targets, into a "Geo Off-Set Rule", numbered as follows: #1 - IF price reverses from Point-5, THEN 1-4 Line is the HIGH-PROBABILITY target (Wolfe Wave rule as well); #2 - IF price reverses from Point-5', THEN price level of Point-4 becomes the HIGH-PROBABILITY target; AND #3 - IF price reverses from Point-5'', THEN price level of Point-3 becomes the HIGH-PROBABILITY target. DISCUSSION: Note that price has already defined Point-5'', whereas it has yet to define TG-2 = 849.0. As stated in the rule Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, Point-5'' definition is associated with a high-probability target at price level of Point-3 - This would ths point to a high-probability of price retracing to 1262.9 - See following chart: While TG-2 remains pending at this time, if and once this target is hit, it would also be associated with price retracing (not reversing) to one of the three Fibonacci values, namely: 0.386, 0.500 or 0.618. Interestingly, as per following chart, satisfaction of both 1) Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 as well as 2) Quant-Target would put these two conditions into near-perfect alignment - See following chart: OVERALL: Predictive/Forecasting Model, as well as the Geo, call for a price relaxation from circa 849.0 to 1262.9, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model alone calls for a moderate probability of price eventually reaching TG-Lo = 629.8, thus defining the following probable price action: Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Follow me on ... Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
XShort
by 4xForecaster
2
$USD v $NOK - Geo Eyes Imminent Bullish, Then Bearish TargetsQUICK ANALYSIS: Here is another educational trade involving a combination of the Predictive/Forecasting Model and the Geo. As you recall, the "Model" is very good at establishing targets, but poor at timing. Combining the "Model" with the Geo offers a high-probability visual pathway towards these targets. In this particular case we have two sequential targets, both being qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Hi and TG-Lo, imposing a deeper reversal impact on price compared to quantitative targets - TG-1, TG-2, ... etc. - which have a tendency to impose a shallower Fibonacci retracements in the order of 0.386 to 0.618). As you may also recall, the WEEKLY chart recently hit a significant Qual-Target: So, the interest at this time is to decipher the mechanism of descent which is likely to bring price down to about 6.6000, as illustrated in the weekly chart above. For this, we can focus on a daily chart and appreciate the following geometry: Looking a bit further, we can also focus at the 4-hour level and look into the morphology of that geometry - What we are looking for is a Geo, with its high-probability price control, as a rationale for that descent to lower lows: Now that we have defined the contours of the Geo, following is a schematic projection of a probable price pathway, given the Predictive/Forecasting Model's predefined targets, as shown: Following also illustrate a prudent, conservative entry when dealing with this sort of geometry, where the orange square defines that level that would trigger a short, but not until price Breaks Across, Closes Across ("BACA"): Once a BACA < 1-3 Line occurs, then there is nothing else to do, but let the Predictive/Forecasting Model receive validation: OVERALL: Above illustration serves as an educational demonstration of how to deal with the Geo, the Wolfe Wave and any other contracting geometries. However, with the combination of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, there is a higher degree of probability that can be reached, and this is how most of the trade I share with the TradingView community are defined. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
15
$USD v $ZAR - Prop Pattern Eyes 14.50790 Reversal | #rand #forexQUICK ANALYSIS: A proprietary pattern I have discovered and named JANUS suggests a top at 14.50790 today. The Janus is one of several proprietary patterns I have discovered and use as adjuncts to my Predictive/Forecasting Model and geometries (Geo and Wolfe Wave). However, they are often used as third-place elements, as they carry a lesser probability weigh than the Model itself, or the geometries. A recent $ZAR analysis was invalidated as price continued to soar (faded in the chart), whereas a nascent widening geometry is developing (highlighted in black lines) - I would pay particular attention to the third and often last validation of the upper line as a probable sign of imminent reversal. However, these can occur right on the line, above it, or some rarer times, not even making it to the line. However, combining this expanding geometry with the pattern adds a slight gain in probability. More on this DAILY chart as price continues to rally. Note also that this rallying is probably on the back of a strengthening $USD rather than a weakening South African Rand, as most of the $USD pairs are display a similar behavior relative to the dollar. However, and as mentioned this week-end, there is a high-probability of reversal in the USDollar Index, which is likely to correspond to the distance before reversal in other major and minor crosses. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
11
$EUR vs. $GBP - Long From Geo's 5' To 4 | #ECB #BOE #forex #euroFriends, A quick analysis on the $EURGBP, illustrating a high-probability rally from current levels, based on a long-awaited reactive rally following the completion of the Geo's ectopic Point-5 at its most current 5-prime (5') position - See following chart: Predictive/Forecasting Model had defined a floor from which a long position was ordered and filled, at 0.69629. This represents a rather long-haul of a horizon line, but the smaller frames should see a high-probability rallying from the recent nadir. STRATEGIC ENTRY - GEO, MODEL, EAGLE: The Geo filled its geometric requirements at each of its leg (i.e.: reciprocity in Leg 1-2; Elliott Wave ("EW") complex ZZ in Leg 2-3; simpler EW ZZ in Leg 4-5), as well as a validation of the 2-4 Line off of Point-3 to define Point-5 ectopia as 5', which converged with the Predictive/Forecasting Model and a lesser utilized (E)xtremly (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry strategy ("E.A.G.L.E."). An overall price action analysis through Elliott Wave internal count also suggests that points 4 to 5' of the Geo was paced by a bearish 5-point impulsive morphology, as illustrated by points 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the chart. This entire impulse maintain an overall symmetry similar to that which defined the 1-2 Leg of the Geo - a larger ab = cd reciprocity, perhaps. FORWARD STRATEGY - GEO'S OFFSET RULE, FIBONACCI: Looking ahead, $EURGBP offers a high-probability entry with limited downside potential. A prudent trader might consider a tolerance range based on a 1.414-FE cautionary range, using Elliott Wave's 3 and 4 termination levels as references (circa 0.68188) if and only if this range fits in his/her risk tolerance profile. A less aggressive breed of trader might consider a BACA relative to the 1-3 Line before considering any similar long-term outlook. The Geo's Off-Set Rule takes into consideration a geometric compensation in order to define the highest probability level of attainment as price reverses from the 5-plot completion. Here, a temporary adverse excursion relative to the core 5-point caused a 5-prime to be defined. Hence, in contrast to Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave consideration of a 1-4 Line as a Take-Profit target, the Geo proposes that, quite often, this 1-4 Line would be missed, but price will travel to the level of Point-4 instead, a phenomenon that seems to highlight an off-set adjustment in the overall deployment of the geometry. OVERALL: Bullish outlook. Cautionary stop-loss is at trader's discretion, although a standard 1.414-FE offers a solid backbone. Highest probability target is based on Geo's Off-Set Rule from Point-5' to Point-4. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
9