Get started

4xforecaster

$NZD v. $JPY - Model Eyes 83.815 | #RBNZ #BOJ #yen #kiwi #forexQUICK ANALYSIS: Perhaps one more contender is found in this $NZDJPY joining the ATHENA method group (see more currently developing in this linked room: www.tradingview.com ). PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Model defines the following bullish targets: 1 - TG-Hi = 83.815 - 27 OCT 2015 AND 2 - TG-Hix = 85.014 - 27 OCT 2015 ATHENA: Feel free to read what this method entails using the link above. Here, we are looking at a potential ATHENA development well on its way. Interim retracement (not reversal) is likely to occur as of the level of this writing (circa 81.445), so not a bad break from the market for those missing the first ferry. INVALIDATION: All bullish targets and expectation would become invalidated if price BACA < 80.226. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ---- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- - Feel free to follow more in the rooms in which pre-publishing traders are demonstrated, discussed and explained - These are development of potential analysis about to be publish, if and once they pass that inspection - These analysis cover Forex, indices, stocks, ETFs and commodities - Requests are welcome, but won't necessarily be answered first. - All comments are for educational purpose only. If you need advice, ask a professional, licensed person. They should know. Cheers, David
Long
by 4xForecaster
4
$JNUG: High-Prob. Rally Into 23.0 | $NUGT $GLD #gold #euro $AUDFriends, I prefer not to dwelling in lower timeframe charts (e.g.: M15, H1) simply because they are often subjected to aleatories of higher timeframes where institutional traders tend to live. However, I have been in this one right before the splits, entering at 2.061 this past mid-December 2015, and been following this pawn either directly, or via other gold correlates. In this particular case, I simply want to mention that, following a successful series of "Target-Hits" using the Wolfe Wave and Geo principles, there appears to be yet another opportunity at this point to consider a LONG opp, based on the attainment of an ectopic Point-5 position via its (not-so-random wandering) Point-5-prime excursion, or 5' - See chart below: Using the Off-Set Rule of the Geo, which states that: 1 - If price rallies from Point-5, it will seek to attain 1-4 Line as its highest probability event (This is the Wolfe Wave expectation), Whereas, 2 - If price rallies from Point-5', it will seek to attain the price level corresponding to Point-4 as its highest probability event; and 3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', it will seek to attain the price level corresponding to Point-3 as its highest probability event. In this particular condition, we are looking at the Geo's OffSet Rule from the perspective of a 5-prime position. Hence, the highest probability event that could ever occur here is the rallying of price to the level correspinding to Point-4, namely the 23.00/23.38 range. Note that an earlier predictive analysis and forecasting was effected on this ETF, in which 29.16 would represent the timeframe shifting value (i.e.: the level beyond which an analysis would require a 4-fold level timeframe of consideration, as a condition of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which defined that 29.16 target this past May 02nd 2015). This simply mean that a 4-fold consideration would bring the analysis from a H1 to a H1 x 4 = H4, or 4-hour timeframe. OVERALL: The background geometries are calling for a rallying into the high-probability level defined by the OffSet Rule of the Geo, whereas a foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model maintains a bullish outlook on a much larger time scale. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
AMEX:JNUGLong
by 4xForecaster
25
$USD v $ZAR - Potential Reversal At 13.91 - #rand #forex $USDZARQUICK ANALYSIS: 1 - Internal reciprocal ab = cd symmetry points to 12.9022: 2 - Nascent Geo: 3 - Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle: 4 - Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Model defines the following bearish targets: -- TG-1 = 12.94603 - 16 SEP 2015 -- TG-Lo = 12.68373 - 16 SEP 2015 --TG-Lox = 12.51395 - 16 SEP 2015 Invalidation would occur if and once price broke above the price level of Point-2, corresponding to the tip-top reversal I had provided this 28st September, 28th, 2015 (see prior predictive analysis & forecasting here: bit.ly ). 5 - This is one of the many pattern for which on-going pre-publishing analyses are occurring in the discussion rooms I have created. Feel free to follow pre-publishing analyses on Forex, stocks, indices and commodities. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
12
Odd Geo Forming In $EUR v. $NZD | #ECB #RBNZ #kiwi #euro #forexFriends, Nothing is what is seems, and this could not be any more true regarding the Geo. As we stack up our lessons for this past 24-hour period (that'd be the 5th lesson on occult geometry, Wolfe Wave, Geo - All the while offering a target on LIVE trades and charting), here is a rare case of an unusual Geo, in which only a select few features have been used to establish a probable target. First, the target is defined as a probable range, namely: 1.80212/1.80004. Second, the Geo lacks its conditional Leg 1-2 symmetrical ab = cd recirocity. However, what it lacks in its initial set of conditions, it is making it up by keeping the remainder of the conditions whole and true, such that the complexity of the 2-3 Leg in terms of Elliott Wave's TZZ formation, a 3-4 ZZ connection, as well as the Geo Anchoring (green star), which has been used to define the 1-4 Target Line. Third, let's lok back in the history of this chart and appreciate the current price level, falling in line with significant price behaviors, such as bar-switche and, R/S levels - Considering that current price level rests at this line, it would be worth questioning the motivation of bulls at this time. If indeed, there were to be a reversal, then a simple ab = cd projection might help define a possible point of repose ... Turns out that this level comes in near alignment with the Geo's own 1-3 Line. and 1-5' Line. OVERALL: Consider letting price float to the geometric convergence defined above. A 50% retracement shoud then be considered, nt only as it would meet the dynamic 1-4 Target Line, but also because this 50% Fib level rests in line with a prior significant structural high, as Point-2 of the Geo. A RSI correlation in terms of probable retracement at current price level comes materially as an overhead resistance against this indicator's own trendline - Worth heeding. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
71
$GBP v $CHF Mulls Limited Decline Pending Geo | #BOE #SNB #forexFriends, $GBP vs. $CHG offers a high-probability of a geometric completion following the price pathway speculated in the chart (dashed orange pathway): PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Predictive/Forecasting Model defined the following two qualitative targets: 1 - TG-Hi = 1.54017 - 09 AUG 2015 and 2 - TG-Hix = 1.57575 - 09 AUG 2015 ELLIOTT WAVE: Current price action may be completing a 5th wave of a larger bullish impulse, with 5th wave pending a higher structural level in the vicinity of the targets defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model. Note how well the EW's Rule of Alternations worked here between a curt 2nd wave and a protracted 4th wave. MARKET GEOMETRIES: Two possible market geometric development rest on the Wolfe Wave pattern and the Geo, albeit Point-4 remains speculative and ill-defined at this early stage. As indicated above, a price decline is expected, with support corresponding to an internal structural (i.e.: internal to the highlighted geometry). A Wolfe Wave would seek completion at or near the first Model's forecast targetat 1.54017, whereas a Geo would allow for a temporary excursion to the topside of the WW, ideally along the 3-5' Line, convergent to the Model's highest defined target at 1.57575. OVERALL: In the background, an interim decline to carve out a higher low is expected, defining Point-4 on the way to a geometric completion of WW or Geo. At the foreground, the Predictive/Forecasting Model defined loftier targets than Wolfe Wave, but in line with a Geo completion. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
7
$USD v $SGD: S/T Bearish; L/T Bullish; 50% Support At #fibonacciFriends, In the most immediate terms, $USDSGD is expected to meet significant headwinds at 1.46884, although the Predictive/Forecasting Model, perceives a possibility of a more proximate bearish entrenchment at the 1.43398 mark. In the longer-term (L/T) prospect, the Predictive/Forecasting Model defined the following qualitative targets: 1 - (L/T) TG-Hi = 1.53511 - 04 SEP 2015 and 2 - (L/T) TG-Hix = 1.57801 - 04 SEP 2015 PROSPECT: In the most immediate term, I would pay particular attention to the aforementioned 1.43398 and 1.46884 marks - These targets are defined as Qualt-Target and Quant-Target, respectively, such that: 1 - (S/T) TG-Hi = 1.43398 - 04 SEP 2015 and 2 - TG-1 = 1.46884 - 04 SEP 2015 SEEKING SUPPORT: WAVES, FIBONACCI & STRUCTURES: If price BACA > 1.43398, then give it a chance to express an internal Elliott Wave 5th wave extension up to 1.46884, a level at which bears are expected to significantly push price back. If price reaches that level, a Fibonacci retracement to its 50% level should be considered, based on concurrent structural levels in the 1.31653 vicinity, which would represent 1st wave completion (not shown) in terms of Elliott Wave development. GEO DEVELOPMENT: In terms of occult geometry, there is room here to consider the possibility of a Geo expression, with its 5-point plots defined as follows: 1 - 1-2 Leg remains a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry. For those familiar with the Geo, Point-2 described in this particular Geo is adjusted as a departure point. True Point-2 remains a the base of the Geo. A similar adjustment is made for Point-4 wherein the departure from termination of Elliott Wave's point-2 serves as an adjustment to this Geo's Point-4, whereas the true Point-4 would rest where the current Elliott Wave's 4th wave correction is defined - More on these adjustment in subsequent lessons. 2 - 2-3 Leg remains a complex Elliott Wave DZZ or TZZ. In reference to the adjustments just mentioned, you will see that the true Point-2 ("T2") and Point-3 would be connected by a zz-imp-zz internal construction, or simply a DZZ. 3 -3-4 Leg is typically a simple Elliott Wave ZZ, as in this particular case.This is also the point of repose of TWO discreet, but important technical events: a -- The Geo's Point-1 falls in line with Geo's Point-4 b -- Point-1 of the Geo represents a higher-degree EW Wave-1 termination level in line with a lesser EW wave-4 termination level. Expect this level to be re-visited as we move forward, which is what the "Model" defines as a strong structural level of support. Note that as price crosses above the 1-3 Line, Point-5 receives validation, but an ectopic point-5 as 5' is more probable. An alternate pathway would otherwise offer the following possibility: In this particular case, the Geo would take into consideration a reaction to the most proximal TG-Hi = 1.43398 target, the expected support at 50.0% Fibonacci = 1.31653, and a reactive rally to complete Point-5 of the Geo at the longer-term TG-1 = 1.46884. OVERALL: Limited upside potential in the most proximate timeframes. A foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model is net bullish in the longer frames, but warns of a significant pullback at finer granular frames. Heed the Geo's plots as a probable mechanism of transition between these S/t and L/T frames. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
15
$GBP v. $AUD - Geo Eyes 2.19 | #BOE #RBA #aussie #forex $AUDUSDFriends, As per last week, $GBPAUD reached its geometric target along the Geo's 1-3 Line - See the frame-by-frame completion of that target in the thread below, immediately following this analysis. For now, we are concentrating on the Geo's 5-point completion at its ectopic 5-prime (5') - As explained before, this placement is important as we seek a high-probability target if and once price reverses from either Point-5, Point-5' or Point-5''. What the Geo offers is a ranking of probability in terms of attainment if and once price reverses from these Poin-5 alternatives, such that a geometric compensation occurs as price adversely excurse beyond the 1-3 Line. This forms the basis of the Geo's Off-Set Rule, which states that: 1 - Reversal from Point-5 offers the highest probability attainment along the 1-4 Line (Wolfe Wave target) - Rule #1; 2 - Reversal from Point-5' offers the highest probability attainment at the price level corresponding to Point-4 - Rule #2; and 3 - Reversal from Point-5'' offers the highest probability attainment at the price level corresponding to Point-3 - Rule #3. In the chart, a reversal from 5' would thus offer the highest probability reversal at the price level corresponding to Point-4, whose range is 2.103 to 2.200. As of this writing, a new candle formed, but the 5' validation remains pending (i.e.: price validates the 2-4 Line originating off of Point-3. OVERALL: Bearish outlook based on the geometric compensation that constitutes Rule #2 of the Geo's Off-Set Rule. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
18
$USD vs. $ZAR Signal Potential Decline To 11.389 | #rand #forexFriends, Look for a breach of the 2-4 Line (even beyond defined geometry) for a potential short signaling. Bears are starting to weigh on the $USDZAR pair, while #USDollar is also shoeing signs of fatigue across other pairs (in addition, look for internal weakening in $SPX and $USDJPY correlate). Background geometry is the Wolfe Wave with its 1-4 Target Line lurking beneath, whereas a structure at a narrow 11.389/11.360 is likely to offer a solid floor if and once above bearish scenarios plays out. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
25
$USD vs. $CHF - Bearing Down Of #Franc | $USDCHF #SNB #forexFriends, A GREAT RESPONSIVE PAIR FOR THE MODEL: This $USDCHF pair has been quite consistent in its response to the Predictive/Forecastng Model. First, last December 2014, the Model was able to predict the dramatic crash of this pair (See 02 DEC 2014 analysis/chart here: ), hitting first the forecast bullish targets up to 0.99144, and then calling for a reversal, wherein price hit all abysmal targets on its way down to 090275. Following that tumble, the Predictive/Forecasting Model signaled a significant rallying into loftier targets, which also got hit one after the other from 0.90357 back up to 0.99346 (See 21 JAN 2015 analysis/chart here: ). NEW PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL SIGNAL: Today, same Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish on the pair with the following two targets which were already announced this past 29 APR 2015, namely: 1 - TG-Lo = 0.90073 - 29 APR 2015 and 2 - TG-Lox = 0.87312 - 29 APR 2015 There is a significant interim support that I would add here at 0.89065, which may guard price from reaching the lower-probability qualitative "TG-Lox". That level should represent a bullish entrenchment, defined at: - Bullish Entrenchment = 0.89065. The significance of this level is simply on the basis that it may likely interdict price from reaching its lowest forecast at TG-Lox, and that bulls may use that level as a springboard for a reversal. MARKET GEOMETRY: The nascent background geometry is a Wolfe Wave with its 5 points still in gestation. For instance, Point-4 remains improbable at this point, since the Tunneling feature borrowed from the "Geo" remains unclear. The Geo can also lend its "Geo Anchor" idea at the GREEN asterix to suggest a possible point of repose for the Wolfe Wave's 1-4 Line, which remains speculative at this point. For the time being, 0.95421 acts as a significant resistance for the geometry, suggesting that if Point-4 was to find a final residence, it would do so below 0.95421, and likely along the 1-4 Line speculatively drawn in the chart. OVERALL: The Predictive/Forecasting Model stands alone and independent of the geometries ascribed in the chart. Only the Wolfe Wave and the "Geo" have demonstrated significant adherence to the Model's forecasts, so they are drawn here for visual guidance, standing in the background, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model are the principle targets at the foreground of the analysis. At this time, the Model remains bearish, and targets defined this past April, 29th, 2015 remain ever closer and still in force. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
44
#USDollar May Cede To Bears | $DXY $USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUDFriends, USDollar completed two superimposed bearish geometries, indicating high-probability decline in the most immediate times, as far as the 4-hour timeframe is concerned - See following H4 chart: In the longer timeframe (Daily), a bearish follow-through from the H4 chart would open the floor up to the following targets - A conditional structure would add further credence to this bearish outlook, resting at 11634: 1 - TG-Lo = 10981 - 10 AUG 2015 2 - TG-Lox = 10691 - 10 AUG 2015 and 3 - Watch Line = 10503 - 10 AUG 2015 Following is the DAILY chart illustrating above Predictive/Forecasting model's targets: OVERALL: Look for congruent price behavior, predictive analysis and forecasting among the majors to support this integrative probability. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
FX:USDOLLARShort
by 4xForecaster
49
$AUDNZD - LESSON: Geo Roots For Bears | $AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZFriends, This Geo has lined up a significant number of condition, both intrinsic to its internal structure and rules (e.g.: reciprocal ab = cd symmetry of its 1-2 Leg, "Tunneling" using "Geo-Anchor"), as well as extrinsic factors, such as the background development of an Elliott Wave bearish impulse, which is in the process of completing its 5th and final wave - At the foreground of all these technical is the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which has developed a bearish bias and defined a significant qualitative target, namely: TG-Lo = 0.96760. As a disclaimer, I have to site a strong bias towards this analysis, as I have entered a short position today (30 JUN 2015) at 1.13658. Invalidation of the trade is rather a matter of each trader's risk tolerance as defined by his/her risk management rule. However, for those needing a structural reference, I would consider transgression of 1.16590 an event that should bring the analysis to reconsideration. Most importantly, I would like to share certain features of Fibonacci which are crucial to defining probable targets. FIBONACCI & TARGETS: As illustrated in the chart, there is a close alignment between the aforementioned TG-Lo = 0.96760 (My target of this on-going trade), and the 1.272-Fibonacci extension value, wherein 1.272 is simply the square root of 1.618. This 1.272 extension level is rather significant in the shallowest, most aggressive counter-trend events, which is what is typically expected in the behavior of the background geometry within the price field, where a quick reversal can be seen in the ectopic locus of Point-5, expressed as Point-5-prime (5'). Another extension that would be typical of a quick turn-around in such a counter-trend measure is 1.414, whereas the standard 1.618 represents a beaten path along which most junior players might pitch their tent and never get hitched. Along the RSI line, I have added a possible correlation in which only TWO prior events have seen values significantly elevated, followed by a price contraction of 0.786-Fib or extension of 1.272-Fib. It is from this comparative evaluation that I derive whether such excesses in RSI are accompanied by a rigid or elastic price response - In this case, the contraction and shallow extension make this a rather rigid response. This same response is expected out of a comparable RSI-to-price elastic correlation. There are other features that we will review as price develops and the geometry unfolds. If it goes our way, all the better, and if not, let us make it a lesson, all the same. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
24
$USD v $SEK - #elliottwave Points To Predictive Model's 8.9109Friends, $SEK is expected to weaken in this pair, where an Elliott Wave carved out an outline of its Contracting Triangle through a series of 3-3-3 internal formations with more (leading triangle) or less (simple zig-zag) complexities. This analysis replaces a recent one, as the Geo lost its geometric validation - However, the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains in force with a resilient bullish target defined as: - TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT 2015 ALTERNATE PATTERN - BARRIER TRIANGLE ... BUT NO MORE: Although price is currently perched at the top of a motive wave - which may or may not necessarily mark the debut of the expected ascent - an adverse excursion should be tolerable all the way down to the 8.03040 line - Crossing of the orange square would offer a fair advance warning. Indeed, attainment of this 8.03040 nadir would convert the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle to a related Barrier Triangle, wherein its Intermediate points (B) and (D) would come to alignment. INVALIDATION OF ELLIOTT WAVE TRIANGLES: If and once price breaks below the aforementioned 8.03040 interdiction level, current analysis become null and void. However, the market geometrist would have to consider the possible nascence of a Wolfe Wave or Geo. OVERALL: An Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle has carved its geometric outline out of Intermediate waves (A), (B), (C) and (D), giving shape to its requisite convergence of A-C and B-D lines with zig-zag internals up to this point. A forecast outline of the expected Intermediate wave (E) is drawn, using slopes of preceding dominant waves, and levels that have been defined as relevant to the Predictive/Forecasting Model. Although Intermediate wave (E) is expected to pass beyond the A-C line, it is defined at the level corresponding to the Predictive/Forecasting Model which had valued the top at 8.91090 on 01 OCT 2015. However, this would not distort the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, but simply offer a common "overshoot", which is a distinct signature in this particular geometry. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
10
$NZD v. $USD - Model Eyes 0.55462 | #RBNZ #kiwi #elliottwaveFriends, Following is the current #kiwi chart, highlighting a few of the recent market geometries that have developed, such as an Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, which offered the mechanism of descent to the current levels, whereas a nascent Geo is now offering its own pacing, affording price a soft landing towards the Predictive/Forecasting Model target, which was defined this past August 17th, 2015 as: TG-Lox = 0.55462 - 17 AUG 2015 A more developed analysis follows in the discussion thread, looking into greater technical details and offering the argument supporting further downside. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
29
$GBP v $CAD - Wolfe Wave Completes; Model Eyes 2.08057 #BOE #BOCFriends, Feel free to peek at some of the pre-analytical work I engage in a daily basis, involving currencies, commodities, stocks and indices. The current $GBPCAD comes from the "$GBP | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" room (reference below), suggesting a continuation to the upside, with a Wolfe Wave pattern calling price along its dynamic 1-4 Line, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model defined a static target at 2.08057 on 07 OCT 2015: The following is a cut/past commentary offered in preparation to this publishing. Those familiar with the Wolfe Wave/Geo may have taken an early position (green square). However, this and an other analysis I post, share or offer comments are for educational purposes only: ========================== 07 OCT 2015 - $GBPCAD - Daily chart: Here is another $GBP cross, highlighting a potential decline to the support shown in the chart. Note that the levels used for that support also approximate a significant 1.414-Fibonacci extension, with a range of 1.96332 to 1.95551 depth. To the upside, I am expecting a reaction capped at a narrow 2.05219 to 2.05599 range. The background geometry is the Geo with the application of the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2 as a rationale for the upper range target. David Alcindor 19 OCT 2015 - Re: $GBPCAD: Price peeled off of the 1-3 Line and consolidation pattern near Point-5; Now nears 2-4 Line following forecast: David Alcindor 19 OCT 2015 - $GBPCAD break across 2-4 Line; 2.0857 forecast remains intact: David Alcindor ========================== PS: Following is where to find the room for $GBP pairs: www.tradingview.com Follow me on TradingView.com (alias: 4xForecaster) for early insights on currencies, commodities, stocks and indices. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor Tradingview: www.TradingView.com ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
19
$USDJPY - #elliottwave Might Point The Way | $JPY #BOE #yenFriends, Here is an interesting challenge presenting from recent price action in $USDJPY, where price appears "to have been going nowhere". However, a methodical approach through Elliott Wave counts might simplify the field in terms of geometric options and probable direction. DECIPHERING THE ELLIOTT WAVES: The recent price action in $USDJPY may have left some traders wondering what direction might the market take especially as we face the following blank price field and contemplate recent price gyrations: First, let's untangle the recent price action by simply recognizing simple a-b-c features of zig-zags with 5-3-5 internal wave construction: Next, let's acknowledge that the recent swift down move has all of the respectful characteristics of a motive wave, defined by intermediate waves (1), (2), (3), (4) and(5). Let's also situate ourselves in relation to the current price action and wave count, by assuming that Intermediate wave-(4) has completed with 5-3-5 internals of a zig-zag, and that we are currently in the development of an Intermediate wave-(5): It is also well worth noting that Elliott Wave's Rule of Alternation appears to apply here, as this Intermediate wave-(4) took on a simpler a-b-c internal structure of minute degree expressed across a larger amplitude compared to Intermediate wave-(2), which displays a more complex internal structure across a much flatter amplitude. Now, turning to Intermediate Wave-(5), perhaps it has become apparent that the dominant geometry expressed by points 1-2-3-4-5 in the field appears as an Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal, which characteristically appears in 5th wave of impulses (as well as wave-c of flats and zig-zag corrections), thus ending the entire bearish impulse at minor degree wave-5. As an aside, please also note that the recent upswing in price may have been caused by this internal Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle ("CT"), expressed in blue capital letters A-B-C-D-E, whereby price rallied following this geometry's signature "under-throw": OVERALL: Price is expected to rally and validate the 2-4 Line of the dominant Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal, assuming that this is the most probable developing geometry that would offer the mechanism of next price action. However, the interim move will require some patience, as I would expect points 3 and 4 of said geometry to develop in a zig-zag pattern, validating internal geometric lines as shown in following chart - Note how a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level aligns with the internal CT's lower border projection and highlighted R/S level (large arrows across band): Ultimately, I would expect the entire Intermediate bearish impulse to end in a truncation, as shown below: INVALIDATION: Above program would become invalidated if price where to rally in the following fashion. For this contrarian inquiry, I have forced the Predictive/Forecasting Model to define a probable bullish target, as shown in the chart, and added a possible Fibonacci extension to support this alternate plan: Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xforecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
by 4xForecaster
11
$GBP v. $AUD Completes "Geo" Cycle At 5' | #BOE #RBA #forex $USDFriends, The Geo has completed its geometric cycle at a ectopic Point-5 level which is its most common occurrence, namely at 5-prime (5'). Based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule, price is expected to decline and find its highest probability target at the price level corresponding to Point-4. A prior analysis based on the Predictive/Forecasting Model had defined two qualitative targets, namely: 1 - TG-Lo = 1.87545 - 21 APR 2015 and 2 - TG-Lox = 1.85918 - 21 APR 2015 OVERALL: Net bearish outlook based on the Geo's expectation, as well as Predictive/Forecasting Model's unanswered targets. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
36
$GBP v $NZD - Structural Analysis: Limited Upside | #BOE #forexFriends, Following a back to back Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle (with internals a-b-c-d-e), wherein point-e offered a significant point of departure, we are now looking at a potential range-bound play, as defined by the underbelly from the first a-c Line extension on the upside, and a double-bottom support extended forward from similar 10 AUG and 23 AUG rejection levels. Note that the a 0.618-Fibonacci level corroborates the upside resistance narrative near 2.4278. Also, worth heeding is RSI relative to its own resistance trendline, which may or may not guide us in following the ensuing price action. We will continue to follow this play with the expectation that price might be range-bound in the most immediate time horizon, with a net-bearish outlook for this pair. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: www.tradingview.com ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
25
$NZD v $CAD On Bullish Forecast Path; Geo Defined | #RBNZ #BOC Friends, TRADE PREPARATION: As some of you might know, I post some of the preliminary studies in my little "atelier" where I analyze Forex pairs, indices, stocks, ETFs - Here is the link for your review (I do not really take request, and I don't do much of a job answering questions, since I consider that space a "basement-level of activity" - Still, there is some jargon and some might find the process of analysis interesting, who knows: www.tradingview.com ) Just released on Twitter/LinkedIn is this post: ---------- $NZDCAD still forecast path; Ends oscillation; Eyes 0.85118 per Geo's Off-Set Rule: $NZD $CAD #RBNZ #BOC #forex ---------- Following are the sequential charts, as I prepared this trade: Here is where we are now: FOREGROUND PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The "Model" expressed the following Quant/Qual-Targets: 1 - TG-1 = 0.85450 - 01 SEP 2015 2 - TG-Hi = 0.86032 - 01 SEP 2015 and 3 - TG-Hix = 0.86408 - 01 SEP 2015 BACKGROUND GEO STRATEGY: In the background, the Geo expressed its rarest Point-5 ectopia as price adversely excursed off of the 1-3 Line and validated a 2-4 Line projection originating from Point-1 (geometric rule defining 5-second, or 5'' as the rarest event. In contrast, 5' is the most common occurrence and results from the 2-4 Line projection originating from Point-3. The Geo's 1-2 Line requirement is met as a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, the 2-3 Line is usually an Elliott Wave complex zig-zag, such as a double-ZZ or triple-ZZ, or in this case, the internal construct of a bearish impulse, justifying the force the adverse excursion and definition of the 5''. The 2-4 Leg is usually a simple ZZ or simpler construct than the 2-3 Leg, whereas the 4-5 is often a mere ZZ. GEO's OFFSET RULE: In contrast to the Wolfe Wave pattern which declines any geometric reliance, the Geo has above set of requirements, as it serves to determine highest-probability targets. These targets are the result of geometric compensations when price moves off of the Geo's core 1-3 Line and 2-4 Line constructs, such that: 1 - Price reversing from Point-5 aims for the 1-4 Line as its highest probability target (Wolfe Wave rule); 2 - Price reversing from Point-5' aims for price level corresponding to Point-4 as its highest probability target; and 3 - Price reversing from Point-5'' aims for price level corresponding to Point-3 as its highest probability target. The frequency of these event occurring is as follows: Point-5' > Point-5 > Point-5''. OVERALL: In the case of this chart, we are dealing with the rarest of the occurrence, and the Geo's Off-Set Rule aims for the price level corresponding to Point-3 as its highest probability target. However, above target is based on the background geometry. In contrast, the foreground is held by the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which stands as an independent factor, and remains valid as far as the quantitative and qualitative targets defined above. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
17
$NOK's Geo Completes 5'; Eyes 8.074; Model Mulls Lower TargetsFriends, THE GEO RULES: The Geo completed its 5-point regimen at its ectopic 5' level, triggering its compensatory geometric rule, namely: The Geo's Off-Set Rule, whereby: 1 - A price reversal from Point-5 offers the HIGHEST probability of attainment along its 1-4 Line (Wolfe Wave rule as well) 2 - A price reversal from Point-5' offers the HIGHEST probability of attainment at a price level corresponding to Point-4 AND 3 - A price reversal from Point-5'' offers the HIGHEST probability of attainment at a price level corresponding to Point-3 Note that the points 5' and 5'' are merely expressed as a geometric intersection of the 2-4 Line off of Point-3 and Point-1, respectively, as a result of a slight adverse excursion away from the 1-3 Line. Note also that the frequency of these ectopic points is such that: Point-5' > Point-5 > Point-5'' PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: As a stand-alone feature in the foreground, the Predictive/Forecasting Model offers the following probable targets: 1 - TG-Lo = 7.93131 - 31 AUG 2015 AND 2 - TG-Lo = 7.87136 - 31 AUG 2015 OVERALL: Geo completion at 5-prime calls for a high-probability target, as defined above, although the Predictive/Forecasting Model expresses a greater bearish appetite. Conservative validation rests at 8.23209, whereas general invalidation rests at 8.40050, as shown in the chart. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
4
$NZD v. $USD - Full Geo Cycle Completion Eyed At 0.64974 | #kiwiFriends, Just as we hit all bearish #fibonacci-based targets in this chart (see "Linked To Related Ideas" below), we are now contemplating a rallying up to 0.64974, based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule, as price is expected to reverse course from an ectopic Point-5 completion as 5' to Point-4, the highest probability level of attainment. Note that price is currently stompled at the convergence of the current Geo's 1-3 Line and the prior (ghosted in grey) Geo's 1-4 Line. This line represents a conservative signal level, although BACA > 3-5' was the first, most aggressive level of engagement for this long opp. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- NOTE: See how the recent geometry-based strategy, combined with simple Fibonacci targets allowed us to complete a successful trade, here: Follow me on Tradingview.com (alias 4xForecaster) for recent and current analyses) David Alcindor
Long
by 4xForecaster
6
$XAU vs. $WTI Complete Geo; Limited Downside For #GoldSynopsis: 1 - Price traces two interlocked Geos 2 - Smaller (BLACK) Geo completes its 5-point regimen; Aims for 1-4 Line (Wolfe Wave rule) 3 - Larger Geo is pending Point-4 & 5 in the 19.10/1844 range 4 - TWO bullish targets exceed 1-3 Line of larger Geo: a -- TG-Hi = 36.20 - 30 AUG 2015 AND b -- TG-Hix = 39.72 - 30 AUG 2015 5 - Bullish Target may align with Point-5 ectopia at 5' OVERALL: Interim decline is limited by the geometric parameters (estimating floor in the 19.10/18.44 range) with subsequent upside potential to levels above the larger 1-3 Line's Geo. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by 4xForecaster
3
$USD v. $JPY Completes A Bearish Wolfe Wave | #yen #BOC #forexFriends, Watch for this potential decline as price completes the 5-point regimen of a Wolfe Wave, naturally seeking full cycle completion at the 1-4 "Take Profit" Line - See M15 chart: FIBONACCI & STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS: At first glance, casting a Fibonacci matrix over the structural high-low with 0.386/0.500/0.618/0.786-Fibs as significant anchor levels might grant a few clues as to what depth of retracement (if there were to be one, as per signaled by this Wolfe Wave) could be attained. Yet, combining with the analysis of internal highs and lows that have been inscribed during the recent upswing might reveal a few probabilities. First, the 0.386-Fib level rests at the first significant resistance to the enduring upswing, as price reached a high of 119.453 (equaled at 119.336 at the 38.6 handle). This 38.6 handle is significant in its forward projection, as it also lent a R/S level for the ensuing channel/consolidation oscillating about its 119.348/119.453 spine. Second, there is the 0.618-Fib level, which has served as the lowest tolerance level in that upswing, as price closed only once below it at the first test support on 24 AUG 2015 @ 13:45. After than, it was all whipped cream over custard, as price remained buoyant relative to that Fib handle. Last is the 0.786 level, which served a similar mechanical function as that of 0.618. Looking forward, these three levels are to be heeded. OVERALL: A decline to the 1-4 Line is probable, if one had to rely on the Wolfe Wave principle. However, there are two prudent measures worth applying here: 1 - Consider a break across with closing across (BACA) below WW's 2-4 Line or 2 - Consider a validation of the support-now-and-resistance-then (SNART) event along that same 2-4 Line, as suggest by the dashed arrow. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
45