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$USD v. $SEK Lesson #4: Geo Construction & Contingencies #forexFriends, A with lessons and demonstrations offered over the past 24 hours (See $USDTRY, $NZDJPY, ... etc), here is another pair worth looking into, not so much from the perspective of a pending geometric completion, but as an example of developing a contingency plan. Here, we are contemplating a short (green scare representing a conservative, prudent entry point, where price BACA < 1-3 Line as its signal) As the Wolfe Wave/Geo would have it, targeting the 1-4 Line comes to sight, and this would be the right thing to consider at this point. However, there is a slight possibility that Point-5 of the completed geometry might in fact be a dud, and that instead, the higher-high structure that build atop this point may perhaps represent the residence of Point-3, of a larger geometric system. As a cautionary measure, I would here recommend the trader to look for added confirmation, such as breaking below prior higher lows (for instance, the one at 8.45, and the one slightly above 8.40), with perhaps partial positioning if that fitted your risk tolerance or strategy style) - See following illustration: Another typical price behavior worth waiting for is the conversion of the 2-4 Line from a support-to-resistance, which means that price would retrace from a decline and hit the underbelly of the formed geometry, offering a validation signal to go short - See suggested dashed pathway in following illustration: OVERALL: In any case, figuring out reasonable and sound price behavior ahead of the game is likely to remove some of the uncertainties that come with this and any other markets - For instance, there still remains the uncertainty whether this pair will ignore the completed geometry, and instead internalize it into a large system. Yet, for this scenario, there is already a contingency plan awaiting in the background, using the Geo's internal construction rules (see prior lessons). See you on this or other revealing threads. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Education
by 4xForecaster
31
$GBP v $JPY: Third Lesson, Same Ideas | #BOE #BOJ #sterling #yenFriends, As we are hitting concepts of Wolfe Wave and Geo hard tonight, here is another opportunity to witness a probable geometric cycle completion of the WW/Geo: We already covered significant ideas and topics through $USDTRY and $NZDJPY charts, so here there are for your review, with a step-by-step review of how I construct the Geo ... These charts are live and still going on as I write this (click on chart for lessons/review of concepts): 1 - $USDTRY: and 2 - $NZDJPY: I hope you will start finding the Wolfe Wave and the Geo easier breeds of market geometries to trade. I will continue to offer information and relevant details as this and other referenced charts develop. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
56
$USD v. $TRY - Another Step-By-Step | #turkish #lira #forexFriends, As the $NZDJPY trade is well on its way (although, we are not assuming that it will reach targets, but only that we are moving along with the probability that it would do so - See its analysis and step-by-step developments here: ), we are now turning to another potential short. Whereas the $NZDJPY was heavier on basic technical conditions (Fibonacci levels), as well as a few occult geometric concepts (nodes, nodules ... Feel free to Google these terms, as well as E.A.G.L.E. if you like to discover these concepts), the case of the $USD vs. $TRY is a bit more involved and complicated, since we are looking at the Geo. What I would like to do here is to raise a few challenging questions, and after a few minutes, provide a simple and logical answer within the thread, hopefully keeping things as simple, linear and interesting as possible. I am not interested in being right. I simply follow the rules that I have defined for the Geo, and I stick to the rules that are imposed by the developing Geo. It's that simple. There is no opinion, just objective data which you too can assimilate, ingest and regurgitate. Yum. Let's start with a BLANK chart of $USDTRY ... See you below. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ------ Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
32
$NZD v. $JPY - This WW Might Rest At #fibonacci Before RallyingFriends, Perhaps an interesting opp in this lesser frame (M15) where ground could possibly defined at a standard Fib contraction level, such that: 1 - 0.500-Fib = 75.589 and 2 - 0.681-Fib = 74.834 SL < 0.618-Fib TG = 79.763 or 1-3 Line extension of WW, which ever come first. Not worth entering unless it declines first. It's one of those all or nothing. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- PS: Looking back, here was an interesting one: - DAA .
by 4xForecaster
73
$NZD v. $USD Eyes Geo's Off-Set Rule Rally | #kiwi #RBNZ $NZDUSDFriends, A bird's eye-view from the monthly chart offers a probable geometry-based play, as illustrated in the following monthly chart: In essence, there are two levels to consider: A probable resistance and a lower support, based on simple structural analysis, and complemented by the Geo's own geometry rules. STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS: Very simply put, there are two kinds of resistance/support levels to consider in any structural analysis, one that is based on a horizontal (static) level where prior price action projects forward a probable S/R level, and one that is based on a sloping projection (dynamic), typically off of a geometric pattern, where the line is likely to impact price as a similar R/S level would, but along its forward projection. In this particular chart, the upper price action will have to face both of these types of resistance, first at the projection of the smaller Geo's 1-3 Line (dynamic resistance line), as well as at a horizontal (static resistance line) zone corresponding to the same smaller Geo's price level of Point-4, consistent with the Geo's Off-Set Rule - This is at about 0.77000. Following is the Weekly chart's view, illustrating this upper level: The lower level offers a probable supportive floor, which consists of a speculative 1-4 Line (dynamic line of support, using the largest plot in black), as well as a historical static line near the 0.61590 level, as illustrated below: OVERALL: Interim rally is expected, as price may uncoil from a bearish pressure, now that RBNZ's decision passed. However, this is expected to be limited, as per above analysis. Further analysis in smaller timeframes (typically H4 level) will serve to follow price action in finer resolution. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
8
$GBP v $JPY: Geo Pt-5' May Cap At #fibonacci Ext. | #BOE #BOJFriends, PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Predictive/Forecasting Model is calling for a significant reversal signal at/near the range offered by the Fibonacci extensions. GEO vs. WOLFE WAVE SCENARIOS: Geo's own ectopic Point-5 may be defined by further bullish excursion, albeit limited by its 3-5' Line. Based on this temporary, capped rally, the Geo's OffSet Rule would offer a HIGH probability target defined at price level corresponding to Point-4 from a short entry at 5'. A lesser probability scenario would see price decline from Point-5 (i.e.: along the 1-3 Line) according to a Wolfe Wave completion and signal, thus finding target along the 1-4 Line. OVERALL: Predictive/Forecasting Model sees significant headwind against further bullish advance at the levels defined in the chart. Look for significant resistance at 1.414-FE versus 1.618-FE, whereby a stop at 1.414-FE carries a higher probability and bearish follow-through than one occurring at 1.618-FE. If indeed either of the Geo or WW scenarios occurred, and price fell below price level of Point-4 or below 1-4 Line, respectively, a floor would open to 186.243 (Wave Reduction target). Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
4
$PPLT Nears Cycle Completion At Geo's 5' | #platinum $XPT $XAUFriends, A quick synopsis on this metal, coming to a cycle completion of the Geo: 1 - Price hit Predictive/Forecasting Model's qualitative target, defined at 98.27 on June 22nd; 2 - A "Warning Level" at this institutional weekly level may offer solid support and ground for reversal, here defined at 91.98; 3 - A large geometry defined by the "Geo" meets the following conditions: a -- 1-2 Leg integrates a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry b -- 2-3 Leg completes a complex Elliott Wave zig-zag (here, a IMP-COR-IMP is drawn in) c -- 3-4 Leg completes a simpler Elliott Wave zig-zag ("ZZ") than 2-3 Leg d - 4-5 Leg completes a simplest ZZ e -- A permissive Tunneling lets a 1-4 Line through the geometry f -- Transposition of 2-4 Line offers a point of repose for Point-5-prime (5') If and once a reversal occurs in the 91.98 ("Watch Level") vicinity, look for a possible reversal to a price level corresponding to Point-4, as per Geo's Off-Set Rule. OVERALL: Confluence of Predictive/Forecasting Model's target at 91.98 and Geo's 5' is likely to impact price. Whether of not this should suffice to reverse price will have to be appreciated over an unusually longer period. However, Forex traders might want to keep this metal in mind, as we are also looking at $XAU and gold-sensitive sovereign currencies, such as $AUD, $CAD and $CHF, and to some lesser extent $NZD. In other words, a rallying in $XPTUSD may be occurring at these defined levels, heralding a possible reversal in the class of precious metals - See recent target hit on $XPTUSD: Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: 4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
AMEX:PPLTLong
by 4xForecaster
6
#USDollar Draws Wolfe Wave; Eyes 1-4 Line; Bearish | $DXY $USD Friends, Here is an updated chart for this new month, as we continue to witness bearish indications on the US Dollar. As per Geo's own Off-Set Rule (i.e.: a precision refinement I developed off of the Wolfe Wave), price has rallied from the ectopic Point-5 position, namely: Point-5-prime, or 5' and rose. The Off-Set Rule states that: 1 - If price rallies from Point-5, it will seek the highest probability attainment along the 1-4 Line (this is the Wolfe Wave expectation). 2 - if price rallies from Point-5' (read as point-5-prime), it will seek the highest probability attainment at the price level corresponding to Point-4 Which is a recurrent feature of this geometric adjustment I discovered, offering a much higher probability target rather than that which Mr. Bill Wolfe, author of the famed Wolfe Wave, would seek. 3 - If price rallies from Point-5'' (read as point-5-second), it will seek the highest probability attainment at the price level corresponding to Point-3. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ------ .
FX:USDOLLARShort
by 4xForecaster
14
$BTC / #bitstamp Under More Bearish Strain | $USD #forex $BTCUSDFriends, Here is a continuation of the on-going analysis on this $BTCUSD / #bitstamp cryptocurrency - See prior analysis right here: "BitStamp Tending To 260 Forecast: - As you may know now, that forecast held on the ground of the "OffSet Rule" of the Geo, where the idea was to determine whether price would rise any further than the current Point-4 of the larger geometry. As per the Geo's Off-Set Rule, Point-4 was regarded as the high-probability level of attainment, since the rule #2 suggests that: - If price reverses from Point-5-prime (5'), then price will seek to reverse to the price level corresponding to Point-4 (the smaller geometry in the current chart, as its highest probability attainment. For a frame-by-frame review of this concept, simply follow this link, which should guide you directly to the discussion and review of that forecast: - www.tradingview.com Following is the current chart, at time of this writing: Following is the social media share and last note on prior thread - This thread has been move to this current page, so as to keep the conversation and analysis clear into a new month: 02 JUL 2015 - UPDATE: From Twitter/LinkedIn: ---------- $BTCUSD / #bitstamp DAILY chart offers a bird's eye view of the bearish probability: $BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex ---------- David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by 4xForecaster
12
$NZDUSD - Lesson: How To Build, Enter, Trade 4xForecaster's Geo Friends, As we are considering the much larger timeframe of this $NZDUSD pair, TradingView @iefan posted a potential Wolfe Wave on that thread. Following is the Wolfe Wave chart, which he correctly constructed: A slight modification is made using the internal geometric requirements of the "Geo", which yield a very similar geometry, but the rules of engagement ("ROE") call for higher probability targets that what is originally defined in the Wolfe Wave, namely the "Off-Set Rule" - See following chart illustrating the basic internal constrictions: In its most basic internal construction rule, the Geo prefers the following conditions: 1 - In essence, the "Geo" PREFERS that the 1-2 Leg defines Point-1 retrospectively using the cd segment which terminates at Point-2 to define Point-1 via the use of the reciprocal ab = cd symmetry; 2 - It also prefers that the 2-3 Leg be an Elliott Wave Triple-ZigZag ("TZZ"); 3 - It also looks for a simple zig-zag of the 3-4 Leg In terms of defining Point-5, there are three possibilities: 1 - Point-5 exists along the 1-3 Line; 2 - Point-5-prime (5') exists along transposition of the 2-4 Line originating at Point-3; and 3 - Point-5-second(5'') exists along transposition of the 2-4 Line originating at Point-1. Above construction is important, as it leads the the HIGH-PROBABILITY target definition of the rule defines as "Off-Set Rule", which suggests that: 1 - If price rallies from Point-5, it will have a high probability of attaining the 1-4 Line (this is the basic Wolfe Wave rule) 2 - If price rallies from Point-5', it will have the high probability of attaining the price level corresponding to Point-4 and 3 - if price rallies from Point5'', it will have the high probability of attaining the price level corresponding to Point-3. In terms of entry, the following rules address a grading level of aggressiveness, namely: 1 - An aggressive entry would allow the trader to enter at the moment price validates Point-5'; 2 - A standard entry would allow the trader to enter at the NEXT candle-open, following the crossing AND closing across the 1-3 Line; and 3 - A conservative entry would allow the trader to enter at the NEXT candle-open, following the crossing AND closing across the price level of Point-3 OVERALL, the pair remains bullish. This smaller interval is worth consulting, as it looks at a finer granular level. IF and once price arrives at the target, we would shift our attention to that larger scaled set up. Thank you @iefan for suggesting this great find at this smaller timeframe. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
43
$INVN - Bears Weave Wolfe Wave | #NYSE #fibonacci $AAPLFriends, Re: $INVN: ---------- InvenSense Inc. is the provider of the MotionTracking™ sensor system on chip for consumer electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets, wearables, gaming devices, optical image stabilization, and remote controls for Smart TVs. (Source: www.google.com ) ---------- Just released on social media: ---------- From Twitter/LinkedIn: $INVN remains under bearish pressure; Predictive Model still on track, eyeing 13.23, bulls await at 12.78: $AAPL ---------- 2-day Chart as of this closing (19 JUN 2015) : MARKET GEOMETRY: - WOLFE WAVE: Price is weaving a nascent 5-point Wolfe Wave geometry ("WW"), with recent lower-high structure likely representing Point-4 of the WW. If this geometry holds, then look for further decline of price to a level along the 1-3 Line. - THE GEO: An alternative geometry arises from the "Geo", with "Tunneling" and "Geo Anchor" requirements being met. A decline to the foreground Model-defined targets would allow the Geo to attain a 5-prime or 5-second adverse excursion relative to the WW's 1-3 Line, in which case, the OffSet Rule would apply and this target a reversal to the price level of Point-4, and not the 1-4 Line as the WW would have it (the former representing the highest probability attainment from a 5-prime position, or to the price level corresponding to Point-3 if reversing from a 5-second locus - i.e.: OffSet Rule of the Geo). PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Predictive/Forecasting Model defined the following two qualitative targets: 1 - TG-Lo = 13.23 - 21 MAY 2015 and 2 - TG-Lox = 12.78 - 21 MAY 2015 These targets stand at the foreground of the analysis, whereas the aforementioned geometries are supportive visual data that have a high-correlative history with this proprietary model. OVERALL: Expect further downside to the level defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model, further incorporate by the geometries. An additional technical data is offered by the 0.786-Fibonacci contraction, a level that closely aligns with the Model's lowest bearish target ("TG-Lox"). Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
IShort
by 4xForecaster
13
$USD v $SEK: Wolfe Wave Completes; Eyes 8.68332 | #forex $USDSEKFriends, A few days ago (well, 20 to be precise), I posted a preliminary chart of this $USDSEK pair on the "Predictive/Forecasting" Forum (link to forum: www.tradingview.com) - At that point, the chart looked as follows: (Link: ) As of today, price has moved in the expected direction and completed a Wolfe Wave at Point-5, yielding this current chart result: At this point, I would expect price to continue its ascent to the pre-existing Predictive/Forecasting Model target, defined as: - TG-Hi = 8.68332 - 02 JUN 2015 OVERALL: An interim decline from current price level (8.22184 at time of this writing) may occur, but the net expectation remains bullish. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ------ Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
16
$USD vs. $JPY - Probable Range-Bound Action Ahead | #BOJ #forexFriends, As the $USD tends to his gored wounds, expect a probable range-bound action in the days ahead. PROBABLE QUANTITATIVE/GEOMETRIC INTERPLAY: A nascent geometry is taking the shape of a Wolfe Wave, but given the structural bounds and Predictive Model data, I would expect this geometry to evolve into a possible Geo, in which case, its rules would differ. For instance, Predictive Model is suggesting a probable floor in the 120.474/120.265 range, which would define a possible 5-prime position, and thus limit subsequent upward moves to the price level corresponding to Point-4 (range defined as 124.210 to 124.431). This combined Predictive/Geometric analysis is very speculative, but remains within the boundaries of high probabilities in terms of how the Predictive/Forecasting Model and the Wolfe Wave/Geo have behaved individually. WOLFE WAVE VS. GEO: The Geo is simply an elaboration of the Wolve Wave pattern, taking into account internal geometric requirements, such as a reciprocal symmetry of the 1-2 Leg, a double or triple zig-zag of the 2-3 Leg in terms of Elliott Wave internal construction, as well as price compensations in terms of reversal whenever price would reverse from an ectopic Point-5 position, defined as a Point-5-prime (5'), whereby the geometric compensation would expect a lowered probability of price returning to the 1-4 Line (as if the rule in Wolfe Wave), but instead offer a high-probability of price reversing to the level corresponding to Point-4 (in the case of a point-5-second reversal, then the compensation would lower the 1-4 Line as the least probable target, compared to attainment of level of Point-4 as a moderate probability target, and the level corresponding to point-3 as the highest probability target - This is in essence the definition of the "Off-Set Rule of Probability Target", or simply the "Offset Rule". OVERALL: In this 4-hour chart, a channel can be drawn given the (pink) ranges illustrated in the chart, using known, reliable technical elements, such as geometry, Fibonacci (lower range happens to fall at 1.618 extension of points 2 and 3) and structural analyses - All this remains purely speculative, but the tools are individually consistent and probable in forecasting power. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
46
EUR vs. $USD - Potential Wolfe Wave in S/T | #euro #forexFriends, Here is yet another completion of a Wolfe Wave geometry as price carves an incremental higher-high. It appears that the Wolfe Wave is weaved by most of the $USD pairs, suggesting that the $USD is dominating the recent price action. As with the recent $USD pairs posted, in this case we are also expecting a probable bullish reaction in the US Dollar. Whether this occurs at the current price locum or at a 5-prime position, the vicinity of Point-4 is likely to reveal bullish forces keeping price above 1-4 Line, and likely above Point-2 of the geometry. A breach below these levels would require a revision of this and other USD-related analyses. Look at the recent $EURUSD analyses I have shared for a long-term bullish outlook in the $EUR, as remains the case in this Forex leader. OVERALL, the nascent geometry offers high-probability ranges within which price is likely to react with some degree of consistency. In this case, a Wolfe Wave has matured to the point of readying a counter-trend, back towards the 1-4 Line. Any adverse excursion above current levels will be dealt with using rules of the Geo, but expect the level of Point-4 to be re-visited in the most immediate term. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
44
$USD vs. $CAD - Wolfe Wave Completes Pt-5; Eyes 1-4 Line | #BOEFriends, Here too, a temporary rally in the bear-beaten Dollar might occur to the geometric extent defined in the chart, as a Wolfe Wave just completed its 5th cardinal position: A structural level, as well as the Wolfe Wave's 1-4 Line are likely to dampen any further advance, as one should expect that Fed's no-hike decision is likely to limit an further bullish ambition for the time being. OVERALL, the $USD is likely to rally reactively to yesterday's sell-off. However, expect significant overhead hurdles to dampen the rally. The most immediate high-probability price action is offered through Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave pattern, unless price fell to lower levels and completed a Geo - In either case, Price level of Point-4 is likely to impose its strongest bearish ripost. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
10
#USDollar May Recover ALong Wolfe Wave | $USD #euro #forexFriends, A punishing day that was for the US Dollar today, upon central bank words that a rate hike would likely be delayed. The move in the USDollar index weaved a familiar Wolfe Wave geometry, completing at its Point-5, as shown in the following chart: Based on this 4-hour chart, one should consider the probability of a reactive rally. Look for a commitment (BACA) across the 1-3 Line, with a high-probability attainment of the 1-4 Line, the exact price level being likely at a corresponding 0.618 or 0.786 Fibonacci value. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
FX:USDOLLAR
by 4xForecaster
14
$XPT vs. $USD Eyes Support @ 999.80 | $AUD $CAD $CHF #XPT $XAUFriends, PREDICTIVE MODEL: Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes the following probable bearish target: - TG-Lo = 999.8 - 11 JUN 2015 MARKET GEO: In terms of market geometry, overlay of 2 Geos is pointing to the nearing of a probable support in this long-term MONTHLY chart. The 1-3 Line of the smaller Geo is likely to play a significant impact on future price action, and might be considered as a trigger line when watching for further price advance. However, the underside extension of the larger Geo remains the true Line-In-The-Sand against any advance, but price is likely to remain at a distance from these levels for a while. OVERALL: This represents a long-term play. In terms of Forex relevance, platinum is one of the rarest metal, and has the tendency to move or often lead the way among other precious metals. As this analysis suggests that a nadir is near or may have been reached, one should perhaps look at gold-sensitive Forex pairs, such as $AUD, $CAD, $CHF for a near-correlation in price action. Do not expect a one-to-one correlation, but a monthly or weekly chart could point to comparable tendencies - HINT: Look for a widening in platinum vs. gold as one possible leading indicator. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Twitter: David Alcindor ----- .
XShort
by 4xForecaster
4
LESSON: $GBPNZD #fibonacci Strat. #forex $GBP $NZD #RBNZ #BOELESSON: $GBPNZD #fibonacci Strat. #forex $GBP $NZD #RBNZ #BOE Friends, Following is a quick review of a Fibonacci-based methodology I used to employ in trading. Please, consider following the actual trade with its original predictive/forecasting analysis at this link: 1 - FIRST and foremost, I make it a rule that my zero and 100 Fibonacci levels are confirmed by the existence of a point of repose, which has to be a minimum of 38.2%, as illustrated in the chart: If a temporary retracement occurs at the 0.114 or the 0.214 levels (i.e.: mathematical complements of the 0.886 and 0.786 minor Fibonacci numbers), then the 100-Fib anchor cannot be defined at the level where these internal retracement, or contraction levels, occur. 2 - Next, I look for significant extensions. Keep in mind that there are several of these levels (i.e.: 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 and 1.618). HOWEVER, in the most common price actions, the 1.618 is the level at which a stop-loss can be sensibly defined. PEARL: Now, remember that a lot of black-box or even institutional traders might already know this, so watch for an AGGRESSIVE market reversing at the 1.414 instead. Here, we are dealing with a standard level of retracement, namely at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, as illustrated in the following chart: 3 - Next, we are to define a probable level of contraction, or Fibonacci retracement from the current price swing. So, define the standard 0.382, 0.618 and 0.786 as the levels corresponding to vanishing probability levels of retracement, as illustrated in the chart: Note how price in the LARGER Fibonacci matrix allows its 0.382 contraction level to align with the SMALLER (former) 0.618 level ... one being the mathematical complement of the other (i.e.: 0.382 + 0.618 = 1.000). Is this making sense to you? Is this perhaps changing the way you might define your trading, stop-losses, or targets? If so, good. If not, feel free to share your thoughts in the thread. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xforecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
10
$USD vs. $JPY - High-Prob. Wolfe Wave Eyes 1-4 Line TargetFriends, Yesterday, we looked at the Geo methodology, defining a high-probability target by the use of its "Off-Set Rule" - see set up and target-hit here: ). Today, we are considering the conventional Wolfe Wave pattern, eyeing a possible target along its 1-4 Line, as shown in the following chart: Of geometric note here, it is interesting to see how the former Geo's 1-3 Line and and current Wolfe Wave's 1-3 Line are converging at Point-5 to potentiate the probability of reversal at the level defined (arrow). OVERALL: The Model remains bearish, while current geometry is supporting a bearish intermediate play. A break below 123.871 would support further downside and open up to bearish targets defined in the larger timeframe (see weekly chart released a few days ago, here: . Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
9
$USD vs. $JPY: High-Prob. Set-Up; Bearish M15 Frame | #forexFriends, An unusually short-term consideration here, as we are witnessing the nascence of a Wolfe Wave/Geo. Point-5' completed, suggesting a very high probability hit at the FIRST highlighted zone. Subsequent levels represent vanishing probabilities. The prior chart remains bearish in its M/T outlook - See it here: Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ------ .
Short
by 4xForecaster
7
$USD vs. $JPY Eyes 122.014; Model Defines 117.134 Target #forexFriends, As per Geo's "Off-Set Rule", attainment of a 5-second (5") will likely build a significant support at the price level corresponding to the geometry's Point-3. This range is defined as - 122.012 to 121.576. As per prior analysis, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish, having set a qualitative target that has remained unchanged since the first trimester of 2015, defines as: TG-Lo = 117.134 - 06 MAR 2015 - Qual-Target: Moderate Probability OVERALL, price will likely find significant support within the 122.014/121.576 range. A break below this level is likely to cause a time-consumptive re-testing ("support-turned-resistance" event), before price would show any bearish commitment. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
7
$AUD vs. $NZD Completes Geo At 5; Bullish #forex #RBA #RBNZHello friends, As a continuation to a glacier-paced trade from 22 JAN 2015, we are following the development of $AUDNZD's price action. Of late, a Wolfe Wave completed. Taking an alternate angle on the geometry by using the "Geo-Anchor" as a reference point to define the 1-4 Line, we are now looking at a potential target as defined in the following chart, below: Overall, the background geometry is offering a probable rallying, against the predefined targets that were defined from a prior analysis (See: "EAGLE Trade Potential" here: ) While the primary numerical target ("TG-1") has already been hit, the following targets remain pending: 1 - TG-2 - 0.77643 - 22 JAN 2015 - Quant-Target: High Probability 2 - TG-Hi = 0.79946 - 22 JAN 2015 - Qual-Target: Moderate Probability and 3 - TG-Hix = 0.81815 - 22 JAN 2015 - Qual-Target: Lower Probability 4 - 0.83395 - 25 FEB 2015 represents a limit conversion level: If attained, analysis would require consideration of a higher timeframe in the order of 4 times its basis (If M15 level, then H1; If H1, then H4; If H4, then Daily; If daily, then weekly; and if weekly, then monthly). Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
22