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$USD vs. $JPY - High-Prob. Wolfe Wave Eyes 1-4 Line TargetFriends, Yesterday, we looked at the Geo methodology, defining a high-probability target by the use of its "Off-Set Rule" - see set up and target-hit here: ). Today, we are considering the conventional Wolfe Wave pattern, eyeing a possible target along its 1-4 Line, as shown in the following chart: Of geometric note here, it is interesting to see how the former Geo's 1-3 Line and and current Wolfe Wave's 1-3 Line are converging at Point-5 to potentiate the probability of reversal at the level defined (arrow). OVERALL: The Model remains bearish, while current geometry is supporting a bearish intermediate play. A break below 123.871 would support further downside and open up to bearish targets defined in the larger timeframe (see weekly chart released a few days ago, here: . Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
9
$USD vs. $JPY: High-Prob. Set-Up; Bearish M15 Frame | #forexFriends, An unusually short-term consideration here, as we are witnessing the nascence of a Wolfe Wave/Geo. Point-5' completed, suggesting a very high probability hit at the FIRST highlighted zone. Subsequent levels represent vanishing probabilities. The prior chart remains bearish in its M/T outlook - See it here: Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ------ .
Short
by 4xForecaster
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$USD vs. $JPY Eyes 122.014; Model Defines 117.134 Target #forexFriends, As per Geo's "Off-Set Rule", attainment of a 5-second (5") will likely build a significant support at the price level corresponding to the geometry's Point-3. This range is defined as - 122.012 to 121.576. As per prior analysis, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish, having set a qualitative target that has remained unchanged since the first trimester of 2015, defines as: TG-Lo = 117.134 - 06 MAR 2015 - Qual-Target: Moderate Probability OVERALL, price will likely find significant support within the 122.014/121.576 range. A break below this level is likely to cause a time-consumptive re-testing ("support-turned-resistance" event), before price would show any bearish commitment. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
7
$AUD vs. $NZD Completes Geo At 5; Bullish #forex #RBA #RBNZHello friends, As a continuation to a glacier-paced trade from 22 JAN 2015, we are following the development of $AUDNZD's price action. Of late, a Wolfe Wave completed. Taking an alternate angle on the geometry by using the "Geo-Anchor" as a reference point to define the 1-4 Line, we are now looking at a potential target as defined in the following chart, below: Overall, the background geometry is offering a probable rallying, against the predefined targets that were defined from a prior analysis (See: "EAGLE Trade Potential" here: ) While the primary numerical target ("TG-1") has already been hit, the following targets remain pending: 1 - TG-2 - 0.77643 - 22 JAN 2015 - Quant-Target: High Probability 2 - TG-Hi = 0.79946 - 22 JAN 2015 - Qual-Target: Moderate Probability and 3 - TG-Hix = 0.81815 - 22 JAN 2015 - Qual-Target: Lower Probability 4 - 0.83395 - 25 FEB 2015 represents a limit conversion level: If attained, analysis would require consideration of a higher timeframe in the order of 4 times its basis (If M15 level, then H1; If H1, then H4; If H4, then Daily; If daily, then weekly; and if weekly, then monthly). Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
22
$USD vs. $ZAR: Abysmal Predictive/Forecasting Model | #forexFriends, You you followed the "Adv. Market Geometry Lessons" offered over the past months, you are now aware of this pair having hit its bullish targets in the way up, and most recently, its first bearish quantitative target ("TG-1") as we defined a top-reversal and are now considering a probable decline. The Predictive/Forecasting Model targets are as follows: 1 - TARGET HIT - TG-1 = 11.81170 - 10 MAR 2015 2 - TG-2 = 12.42361 - 10 MAR 2015 3 - TG-3 = 10.46000 - 10 MAR 2015 and 4 - TG-Lo = 9.48240 - 10 MAR 2015 At a finer granular level, I have just posted the following geometry, whose direction falls in line with the Model's bearish direction ---------- $USDZAR offers a completed geometry with probable decline to 11.8427: $USD $ZAR #forex ---------- OVERALL: Both geometries are unfolding at the WEEKLY and HOURLY levels. However, I will provide the more interesting analyses off of the hourly or 4-hour charts as we move along. Invalidation of the HOURLY analysis should occur upon price adversely excursing beyond the 5-second level (only the 5-prime is shown in the chart). However, even if and once price completes the geometric cycle at the 11.84269 target level, a significant rallying could still occur up to about 12.0600 - More on this as the Predictive/Forecasting Model churns out the necessary data to complete this secondary analysis. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor
Short
by 4xForecaster
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$GBP vs. $NZD Mulls 50% Decine To 2.03526 | #BOE #forex $USDFriends, Predictive/Forecasting Model had already suggested imminent decline (see prior analysis in my threads). In this particular pair, a primary, quantitative target emerges at significant historical structural levels - See line-up of highlights in following chart: In the background, a nascent geometry is taking shape, carving out a speculative Point-4, so expect a denouement in the following week. Invalidation levels should be considered at transgression of geometry's Point-2. Again, Point-4 remains speculative as to its final residence. OVERALL: Per Predictive/Forecasting Model, the outlook turns BEARISH. As the Predictive/Forecasting Model mulls the data, added qualitative/quantitative targets will be posted as we move along. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- . PS: See recent completed forecast on this pair: - 4xForecaster
Short
by 4xForecaster
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$GBP vs $JPY Mulls Tumble Toward 181.338 | #forex $USD #BOJ #BOEFriends, This pair has been quite clement with us, as it has consistently adhered to the Predictive/Forecasting Model forecast in recent and distant analyses. At this time, there is a high-probability of reversibility, based on the Model's Qualitative Target having been reached at 187.590 from prior depth. The current Predictive/Forecasting Model outlook does not consider a return to the abysmal level, but instead to a 181.338/180.939 range. This is consistent with a background Geo overlay in which price might be under the "Off-Set Rule" constraint,mulling a probable decline and respite at the level corresponding to Point-4. OVERALL: Invalidation of the forecast would occur with price carving a structural high, whereas a conservative engagement in a trade would wait for a commitment below the 185.95 level - Not a trade recommendation: All educational, as we continue to elaborate on the Wolfe Wave and refine market-geo rules around this advanced geometry. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
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#Aussie Defines Sturdy Base; Remains Bullish | $AUD #RBA #forexFriends, #RBA rate cuts to historic low did nothing to interdict price's sustained rally towards targets defined this past January 2015 (see original analysis here: www.tradingview.com ) Hence, the following targets remain in force: 1 - TG-1 = 0.84131- 05 MAY 2015 2 - TG-Hi = 0.86144 - 10 JAN 2015 and 3 - TG-Hix = 0.95025 - 10 JAN 2015 Also defined within the field is a "Bullish Entrenchment" zone, defined by the range 0.76483-to-0.7540. If tests, this range would impose the strongest bull ripost - These are illustrated in the following chart: Following is a social media release update, one of many as price offers technically relevant event: From Twitter/LinkedIn: ---------- $AUDUSD January forecast remains in force; New proximal quant-target defined per core geo; Bullish: $AUD $USD #RBA ---------- Stay tuned, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: www.tradingview.com -----
Long
by 4xForecaster
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#Peso Eyes Alternate 1-4 Line Per Geo Anchor | $USD $MXN #forexA geo is playing out here, propelled by a weaker USD. The traditional 1-4 Line is foregone, and instead it has been supplanted by a more conservative Alt. 1-4 Line, created from the "Geo Anchoring" concept discussed in prior analysis, defined therein by the GREEN asterix. A Predictive/Forecasting Model has not been submitted for target definition at this point. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ---------- .
by 4xForecaster
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Bears Batter Bulls At 1.94617; Bearish Outlook $GBP $AUD #forexThis past April 21th, the Predictive/Forecasting Model churned out the following two qualitative targets: 1 - TG-Lo = 1.87545 - 21 APR 2015 and 2 - TG-Lox = 1.85918 - 21 APR 2015 A geometric overlay provides a visual reference to support above forecast, whereis a Point-4 pf a larger system may have completed a Double-Top with a preceding Point-2 of a lesser size geo. As the lesser geo unfolded, structural analysis suggested a probable bearish entrenchment corresponding to the lesser geo's Point-4. As this level was revisited, the integrality of the lesser geo remained intact, and the recent reversal prompted this chart, as well as the following complimentary social media share: From Twitter/Linked-In: ---------- $GBPAUD: Bears continue to interdict bulls at 1.94617 as forecast; Targets intact: $GBP $AUD $USD #BOE #RBA #forex ---------- David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
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Adv. Market Geo Interplay Eyes 95.209 | $AUD $JPY #RBA #BOJ $USDLast April 15th, I posted a highly speculative interplay of geometries, wherein a dominant geometry (II) would support the rallying of price from its Point-3 (grey), invalidating III and supporting I - Posted as of the origin of the orange, dashed arrow. Price held its tack so far, invalidating III and continuing adding credence to I - The overall expectation here is a reversal via an ectopic Point-5 pertaining to the smaller geo (I), and corroborating with II's Point-4, whose current residence remains highly speculative. However, based on structural analysis, one can generally aim for a reasonable range, which is defined here from 95209 to 95.641. Just released to Twitter/LinkedIn: ---------- $AUDJPY: Speculative geo. interplay remains intact as price continues to rise to Pt-4: $AUD $JPY $RBA $BOJ #forex ---------- David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ---------- .
by 4xForecaster
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Is $EUR vs. $USD Rallying Back To 1.38865? #euro #forex $bundAt 1.04613, the nadir of last month also marked the exact level at which the LEFT completion of the geometry sent price to its 1-4 Line validation. Upon a new month, price rose from that geometric validation, and appears to remains in suspension as of this writing (23 APR 2015). Just as important, a new geometry has reached completion at its 5th plot, and since then has fallen further, just as to complete its prior geometric sibling, as just described above. At this point, there are TWO possible options, which have to be reviewed in correlation with this new geometric completion: 1 - Ether price consolidates with a NET BEARISH move, such that price attains the 1.618-Fibonacci extension as shown in the chart, and in this adverse excursive process would validate an ectopic Point-5 as its 5-prime (5'), OR 2 - Price rallies from the current level, and based on the "Off-Set Rule" attains a re-balancing of the past years gyration by validating the 1.38865-to-1.39927 range. OVERALL: As you ma recall, I have released hints of this pattern completion by posting the large geometry as a background to the recent lessons on "Advanced Market Geometries" (see it here: ). Considering the current "Fork in the road" situation, I thought it was worth releasing the chart with the extent of details as shown in the illustration and start a health and edifying discussion on what the direction might be. As you may already suspect, I will side with the BULLISH outlook, but an interim decline to complete a 5-prime definition should be entertained at this point - Let's keep this large time-frame under the elbow for now, as we are currently dealing with the recent bullish geometry just reelased (see it here: ). Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
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$NZD vs $CAD: Proximal, Then Abysmal Targets | #RBNZ #BOC #forexBackground geometry completed at Point-5 but posted an ectopic Point-5 as Point-5-prime (5'). As this adverse geometric excursion resolved, price continued to decline first via a complex series of corrective coiling, and of late into a sustained impulse. The geometry is illustrating two distinct geomtric targets via its 1-4 Line. A rudimentary one is defined at the conventional Wolfe Wave manner, by simply passing through points 1 and 4. However, a discreet one is defined by the "Geo Anchor" methodology, and lies more distal to the conventional Wolfe Wave method. In the examples provided in the past, I have tended to define the "Geo Anchor" based target line as a more proximal element relative to Point-5, but in this less probable display, the reasoning is simply conditioned by the definition of two other targets (see below). Hence, based on this bias along, I have decided to ascribe two distinct potential dynamic targets: A conventional one as would probably be defined by the Wolfe Wave method, and a second one, based on the aforementioned "Geo Anchor" method, whose point is highlighted in the chart as the green asterix. As per the "Off-Set Rule", one should expect a significant support at the price level corresponding to the geometric Point-4, with an associated range (probable bullish entrenchment) defined by the two following values: 1 - 0.91734 and 2 - 0.91469. However, the independent Predictive/Forecasting Model is eyeing more abysmal targets.Predictive/Forecasting Model produced the following two qualitative targets: 1 - TG-Lo = 0.90260 - 23 APR 2015 and 2 - TG-Lox = 0.87857 - 23 APR 2015 Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
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$EUR vs. $USD Continues To Move Towards 1.09373 As ForecastYesterday, we did an initial study of the background nascent geometry (see it here: ). As the geometry was still unfolding, we strived to define Point-4 in the interest of entering a LONG position. This exercise was aided by the method I develop, which simply consists of defining a "Geo Anchor", or a supportive inflection points that typically emerges out of Point-2 to Point-3 leg. This is in lieu of the rudimentary connection between points 1 and 2 - The benefit of the "Geo Anchoring" is that it optimizes the chance that price will return to it, as it will tend to find a more proximal residence. In contrast, the mere plotting of a standard 1-4 Line at these respective points is at times associated with near misses. Again, this exercise is for a background pattern analysis, whereas the foreground is represented by the product of a Predictive/Forecasting Model, which yielded the following qualitative targets: 1 - TG-Hi = 1.09373 - 22 APR 2015 and 2 - TG-Hix = 1.04020 - 22 APR 2015 As the geometry continues to move towards the definition of its Point-5 along its 1-3 Line, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains the main feature of the price study. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
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$AUD vs $NZD Completes Geo; Eyes 1.07583 $USD #RBA #RBNZ #forexReady for this NEW one? We are adding another long-term chart to the collection of "Adv. Market Geo" lessons, looking in the eyes of a DAILY chart. The particular importance of this one is that the DAILY bar has not completed its daily consumption, and that although it has penetrated the 1-3 Line, ONLY a new bar can trigger any consideration for a LONG position. I would even add to be clear, that ONLY a long position should be entertained IF and ONLY IF the current bar closes above the 1-3 Line. Now, as you may recall, we are adhering quite strictly to the "Off-Set Rule", which states that: 1 - Reversal from Point-5 should trigger a target along the geo's 1-4 Line 2 - Reversal from Point-5-prime (5') should trigger a target at level of Point-4 and 3 - Reversal frm Point-5-second (5'') should trigger a target at level of Point-3. First, remember that the Points 5, 5' and 5'' and their corresponding targets refer to all points pertaining to the SAME geo. Here, we are dealing with the interplay of TWO geos, one potentiating the other - To be clear, I will refer to large or small geo. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
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$GBP vs $JPY: Interim Retrace; Loftier Target | #BOE #BOJ #forexPrice reached a significant Wolfe Wave landmark, namely its "Take-Profit" area, along its 1-4 Line - See chart below: The Predictive/Forecasting model posted a quant-target today, and maintains two older qual-targets from last February, namely: 1 - TG-1 = 181.191 - 22 APR 2015: High-Prob. Hit, Low-Prob Reversal 2 - TG-Hi = 185.707 - 19 FEB 2015: Low-Prob. Hit; High-Prob. Reversal and 3 - TG-Hix = 187.590 - 19 FEB 2015: Very Low-Prob. Hit; Very High-Prob. Reversal Based on the quantitative nature of the first target, a less-than-reversal event should occur if and once the 181.191 level gets hit. This "less-than-reversal" implies that a mere retracement might take place, in the Fibonacci order of 0.382 to 0.618, but very rarely deeper than this - Relative to the background geometry, this might correlate with a validation at the upper-side of its 2-4 Line. If you look at the current RSI residence, this level was last visited in the early part of December 2014, hence I would add this factor as an added qualitative data in support of at least a retracement. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ------ Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
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$NZD vs. $USD Nears Geo's Point-5; Target at 0.77934 #forexBackground geometry calls for a Point-5 definition along its 1-3 Line. By definition, this is often associated with a retracement back along the geo's 1-4 Line. Predictive/Forecasting Model indicates a generally BULLISH outlook, taking aim at its most proximal quantitative target at 0.77934. An interim retracement in the order of 0.382 to 0.618-Fibonacci might occur, but loftier qualitative targets are also lurking and expected to be visited - The targets are defined as follows: 1 - TG-1 = 0.77934 - 22 APR 2015: Quantitative Target = High-Probability hit; Low prob. reversal 2 - TG-Hi = 0.79490 - 22 APR 2015: Qualitative Target = Low-Prob. Hit; High prob. reversal and 3 - TG-Hix = 0.80497 - 22 APR 2015; Qualitative Target = Very Low-Prob. Hit; Very High prob. reversal
by 4xForecaster
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#BitStamp Tending To 260 Forecast; Geo Offers Support #fibonacciIn a prior predictive analysis/forecasting, the technical reasons where outlined to support a reactive rally to the 260.00 see prior analysis here: .) At this point, the expected rally towards 260.00 remains in force, as price surged and carved a higher high, and is now likely to have found that once-resistance/now support in the geometry's 1-3 Line. The Fibonacci scale highlights correlations with the foreground geometry, wherein its 1.414 represents its reversal level at the geo's 5-prime, its 1.000 highlights the geo's conservative trigger level, namely Point-3, 0.618 defines the approximate level of Point-4, which defines a high-probability of attainment, whereas the most distal, at 0.786 represents a possible Cypher completion level. These levels are likely to be visited at the probability rate defined here, but the overall picture remains submissive to bearish whims, per Predictive/Forecasting Model. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by 4xForecaster
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#BitChina Stomped At Its 2-4 Line; Bears In Force $BTC #bitcoinAs discussed in the larger time-frame, an interim rally is expected to occur before decline resumes. Background geometry here is offering a framework for this nascent dynamic, as price is expected to reach the price level level of Point-4 as a high-probability event, versus a 1-4 Line attainment. Independently, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains open to its most bearish target at 1089.93, defined on April 10th - See larger analysis here: , as well as smaller frame analysis here: . David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
B
by 4xForecaster
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$BP vs. $USD Maintains Model's Bearish Tack | #BOE $EUR #forexPredictive/Forecasting Model refined the original target from 1.44396 (defined on April 10th) to now the following qualitative targets: 1 - TG-Lo = 1.45041 - 21 APR 2015 and 2 - TG-Lox = 1.44341 - 21 APR 2015 For the record, following is the former target: (Source: ) From a market geo viewpoint, a nascent geometry is likely to cap the current rally to a level that will probably remained below the recent structural high (YELLOW star). Note that Point-4 is only speculative at this point (RED star), as price continues to negotiate its way up along a possible "tunneling", through which 1-4 Line would tend to traverse. This tunneling is aided by the internal Geo Anchor" which typically occurs at the inflection along the 2-3 leg. OVERALL: Bearish. Invalidation would occur upon breaching the parallel of the 1-3 Line off of Point-2 (not shown in the chart, but it should remain apparent that this geo demands that 1-3 and 2-4 Lines be ipsi-directional and convergent. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Short
by 4xForecaster
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$NZD vs. $JPY Nears Completion Of Geo | $USD #RBNZ #BOJ #forex Geometry had to be modified from its original plotting (see it here: ). Modification pertained to a more complex 2-3 and 3-4 leg developments into deeper zig-zags. As indicated before, the 2-3 leg is typically the longest, most complex - This re-adjustment only reflects this point. There is no attempted Predictive/Forecasting Model for at the moment, so as to emphasize the pure geometric basis of price development. Expectation here is a persistent rallying to complete geometry at Point-5, and a reversal back towards the 1-4 Line. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
by 4xForecaster
4