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4xforecaster

Could $DJIA Rise To 21850? | $SPX $NDX $DJIA $VIX $GLD $SLVFriends, Recently, I put out a few lessons on basic and advanced technical analysis, using simply trendlines, patterns, and delving into more complex geometries from Elliott Wave, Bill Wolfe and Scott Carney's widely known patterns. Today, I would like to present a variance of the Wolfe Waves pattern, which some of you know as my main work-horse geometry as a secondary back-up to the predictive/forecasting model I use in my daily analyses. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: First, here are two values which the predictive/forecasting model has put out so for, representing loftier nominal targets (i.e.: low-probability attainment, but high-probability reversal, or top/bottom reversals, in contrast to numerical targets, which represent high-probability attainment, but low probability reversal, or future pivot levels) - These two nominal targets are: 1 - TG-Hi = 18945 - 23 JAN 2015 and 2 - TG-Hix = 21850 - 23 JAN 2015 (The remainder of the analysis will be placed in the text area, below this chart and commentary - Thank you - David Alcindor, Alias: 4xForecaster)
FX:US30
by 4xForecaster
30
Builds Support @1.04391; Remains L/T Bullish | $AUD $NZD #forexFriends, I initially entered this pair @ 1.03882, and closed this long position today in anticipation of the following analysis. As announced earlier today (see dated tweet on this pair), the pair is likely to recover towards its 50% level. However, price stalled at the 38.2% Fib level, suggesting that a transient recovery in $NZD could pull the pair back towards the highlighted zone, representing a high-probability reversal bullish entrenchment, circa 1.04391. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECAST: As a prior TG-1 was hit and price declined further than anticipated, the model produced a new new numerical primary target, defined as a Tg-1-prime, while the other targets remain in force, as follows: 1 - TG-1' - 1.2574 - 22 JAN 2015 2 - TG-2 = 1.15084 - 30 AUG 2014 and 3 - TG-Hi = 1.19207 - 30 AUG 2014 PATTERN ANALYSIS: There are TWO background patterns worth considering at this point: 1 - A dominant Bullish Shark, which prompted the reactive swing to the upside that peaked yesterday and 2 - A Bearish Wolfe Waves pattern, which rests in the shadow of that recent Shark, highlighted in BLUE. A conservative support is expected at the level corresponding to Point-4, which defines a potential support ahead of the predictive/forecast bullish entrenchment, and thus gives this area a likely rebuttal level from bulls. This level of Point-4 is defined in the chart at 1.04646. OVERALL: I have kept the directional indicator under neutral for this timeframe, although a practical trade at H4 should consider this an interim BEARISH retracement. Thank you for your readership and thumbs-up support. It helps me estimate which pair is most followed. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
by 4xForecaster
35
Brittle Brit Bulls Bend To Bears | $BTC $USD #forexFriends, Here is a probable bear per predictive/forecasting model, eyeing the following set of numerical and nominal targets: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING: 1 - TG-1 = 1.50074 - 22 JAN 2015 2 - TG-Lo = 1.49429 - 22 JAN 2015 and 3 - TG-Lox = 1.48907 - 22 JAN 2015 ADVANCED PATTERN ANALYSIS: Note that the current background geometry consists of a potential Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal ("ED") versus Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"). Either of these patterns have a signature "under-throw" potential which is capable to bring a terminal 5th wave (GREY colored, as it remains pending) down to the depths defined by the predictive model. As you may recall, the numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... TG-n) represent high-probable levels defining future R/S or pivot levels, whereas the nominal targets (i.e.: TG-Hi, TG-Lo, and there associated extremes: TG-Lox and TG-Hix) are low-probability attainment level which very high probability reversal (i.e.: retracement greater than 0.618-Fibonacci values). Note that the Wolfe Wave will seek validation of Point-5 along the 1-3 Line, but that its most common morphology will strain price to levels beyond this 1-3 Line, seeking validation of the 2-4 Line which has been copied and transposed off of Point-3 (Dashed BLUE Line). IF and ONCE this dashed line is hit, a reversal towards a minimal pf Point-4 level would then be sought. Higher levels are also targets, which would be best defined by the extension of the 1-4 Line (Take=Profit Line), not drawn just as yet in this chart. Appreciate your readership and support. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
Short
by 4xForecaster
9
EAGLE Trade potentialWatch for a potential rally off of 0.68893. Following are speculative forecast (i.e.: If model was forced to commit to bullish outlook), yielding the following targets: NUMERICAL TARGETS: 1 - TG-1 - 0.75064 - 22 JAN 2015 and 2 - TG-2 - 0.77643 - 22 JAN 2015 NOMINAL TARGETS: 1 - TG-Hi = 0.79946 - 22 JAN 2015 and 2 - TG-Hix = 0.81815 - 22 JAN 2015 OVERALL: The recent bearish swing completed a bearish impulse, finalized at Point-5 as a nadir. The following development has drawn a time-consumptive correction which is likely to remain at or above the forecast 0.68893 forecast, thus defining a fronted entry (i.e.: respective of spreads) above this level. A break below Point-5 would abort this trade. The methodology applied here represents an old strategy I had called EAGLE, which offers a VERY LOW risk versus a HIGH REWARD potential. As defined therein, the RR = 21:1 Please, note that I already enter a LONG position @ 0.69382 Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
Long
by 4xForecaster
69
Do we have a Wolfe Waves Pattern forming on the Daily chart??While I don't know a lot about the Wolfe Waves pattern, I am wondering if it could be possible that we have one developing on the daily time frame. It may be too early to tell and I'm just jumping the gun a little. I don't think it will become apparent unless we get a point 4 to print on the chart. This will then let us determine the 2-4 line and therefore the 3-5' line (currently the dashed blue lines - assumed). The dashed green 1-4 line is also assumed as we need that fourth point to complete the convergent lines and see a declining wedge. Time will tell my friends. If you have any advice, comments or amazing abilities (looking at you 4xForecaster) please chime in.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DanLaffas