BITCOIN TOP INDICATORS...It's a great moment to assess whether any Bitcoin cycle top indicators are nearing extreme levels. Let's begin with the Pi Cycle indicator, which is currently looking quite robust.
4yearcycle
The CryptoSniper's Bitcoin prediction --- $140kIf we can envision a Inverse Head and shoulders forming.
With a horizontal neckline coming in at around $47.5-48k
It gives us a LOG projection north of $140k
Draw it out yourself and see :)
A linear target would be much more subdued and give us a $80k target
And trap people below that magical figure for close to a decade , if u tack on a bear market that would follow.
That could really hurt #Bitcoin's traction in gaining new buyers going forward (especially on the retail level)
But lets's be optimistic and aim high
but recognise the value of having BOTH targets in mind.
@TheCryptoSniper Thank you for your ongoing education and dedication to your craft.
BTC POST HALVING History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes...
We're now in the post-halving part of the Bullrun, and we can look back into Bitcoins history to help predict what might happen next.
Typically A bull cycle lasts 1065 days from the low to the high with the halving event in the middle. If we use that same timeframe and apply it to this Bullrun we can expect the peak for BTC to come in early October of 2025.
Now we know that once BTC has had it's top, altcoins regain some of the market dominance in an "Alt season" which is often a manic period of profits from BTC being poured into increasingly risky projects until the whole thing comes crumbling down, which then leads too...
The bear market which historically lasts for a full year from top to bottom. The bear market comes when most people least expect it as they are so used to price going up, complacency and greed can cost you all of the gains made in the last 3+ years. It's also important to note that BTC routinely goes through 25-30% corrections on the way up, and this is where many fall down. Knowing the difference between a correction and a top is the difference between making it and roundtripping everything. Have an exit strategy, take profit at key areas, don't let greed win.
The Fibonacci levels can be very useful when a project goes into price discovery as well as big even levels, your 100, 150, 200's etc. When Fib levels line up with these big evens you can expect resistance and therefor look to protect your capital.
Bitcoin is very close to a breakout from the '21 ATH level, we've been above SWB:69K before but swing failed to hit $56K, I am still a little worried about the GETTEX:52K +VE Orderblock as shown in green, it would make sense to revisit that area at some point however it does depend on this current SWB:69K S/R level.
DOLLAR down BITCOIN upThe DOLLAR is the worlds #1 trade and reserve currency
#GOLD is the KING of Anti Fiat
#Bitcoin is attempting to replace GOLD in the mindshare of people
(to a certain extent it has, considering from where it started from just a brief 15 years ago)
So observing the major trends of the #DXY is crucial to determine how to place your bets
and how much risk you should be taking on.
*** The caveat being that the DXY is just measuring the dollar mainly against the Euro and various other major Fiats that become more worthless over the years ... so these decades long gyrations don't actual show you how poorly these #fiat currencies store your value.****
I believe #Crypto is on the cusp of some spectacular returns
The #BTC.d will soon reverse
You will see #Ethereum and the # altcoins gain some real strength once grayscale has sold down much of it's ETH holdings.
The 4 year cycle is back on track ... after running too soon in the cycle.
Historically Q4 of a Bitcoin halving year is the start of some explosive up moves.
We have been waiting 4 years for this...
Do you want to wait another 4 years for 2028 to experience the next Crypto meltup?
A disappointing #Altcoin season? Maybe! OTHERS.d/BTC.dMaking gains in #Crypto has gotten harder and harder with each passing cycle for the vast majority of participants.
That is an unquestionable truth that I see and hear from people.
#Bitcoin itself is in it's 4th Hype cycle... which is bearish
2013 Mt Gox ponzi cycle top/collapse
2017 Eth/ICO craze, CME futures. CNBC XRP shill top.
2021 Uniswap/DEFI innovation , Elon doge /Coinbase IPO top.
2024/5 Memecoins craze --- topping signals are already appearing Andrew Tate / Iggy Azalea at NYSE. A Trump Election Win could be the final nail in the coffin whilst ppl celebrate the news and January 2025 Inauguration may seal crypto's fate.
The left translated 4 year cycle is a definite possibility as made popular by #BobLoukas
We know that retail investors are rejecting High valued VC backed projects and rather take high risk gambles on #Memecoins for a chance to be early... this is not bullish behaviour obviously!
As only a tiny percentage of people can win at that game and often it is not YOU!
Once that speculative capital & energy is rinsed many people will be left holding a worthless bag of tokens.
#Leverage trading destroys many people's lives
And a digital store of value whilst has obviously it's merits is unlikely to flip #Gold in marketcap imho
It cannot compete with a 5000 year history of storing wealth for generation to generation.
I can bury Gold coins in my garden and dig them up in 50 years knowing full well that they will have value.
Would you do that with a trezor? Lol.
So what do we do ... try to take advantage of the next 6 months and rotate S coin profits into
#Stablecoins and maybe a small allocation to #PAXG #XAUT (buyer beware on those gold backed #RWA coins obviously)
This should buy you enough time, to let you assess the fallout of any top that may occur this Christmas/new year.
Remember many people and especially the Bitcoin community will be partying and celebrating the 15 year journey of a $100k plus BTC.
You must avoid being sucked into that hype and cash in a good chunk of your crypto portfolio IMO
This is just a scenario I give to you ... and not a prediction ofc.
We are trying to predict the future irrational behaviour of humans, an almost impossible task. But as the wall St cheat sheet demonstrates speculative bubbles, generally do repeat often enough for us to try and capture profits from them.
So we watch and wait, place our bets and see where the chips may fall, one foot in and one foot out is my general kind of viewpoint of how most people should be thinking at this stage of the cycle.
Right where we are supposed to be in the #Bitcoin cycle. Watch the calendar not
the price.
Hard to implement.
But it's the only way to keep your sanity investing in #Crypto :)
We have had double bubble's
Parabolic tops
marginally higher high, double tops
what next a rising wedge top, triple top , a clean head and shoulders?
all that we know , we must fear the euphoria and fade the crowd.
WEN ATH for #Bitcoin ... July 2024Based on past cycles
The breakout should occur around 33 months post the 2021 high
With the top occurring Q4 2025
This could be front run of course. As the thesis laid out by Bob Loukas.
And I do lean into the idea this is going to be a major top for #BTC
Resulting in the halvening failing to provide the expected pump in 2028
The quickening of #BTC RSI & price extremes!I don't make the rules.
:)
We are just surfing the waves of emotions,
of the crowds.
Here we have Monthly line chart with the RSI
It clearly shows a quickening of the trend and how the 4 year cycle is likely to fail this time around.
It is too well know as a theory and will be front ran.
(in my opinion)
We should get a RSI peak at this rate, around May (could be June ofc)
and second lower peak around November (or DEC )
As always good luck in your speculations
#Crypto's are highly speculative instruments as we all know
During these tops you will be told many stories
you must have the wherewith-all to ignore the noise.
This Cycle Take Profits! "Ladies and gentlemen, I'm excited to share with you that Bitcoin adoption is gaining momentum in institutional settings! Heavy hitters like Fidelity Investments, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs are actively exploring cryptocurrency offerings. And it's not just them - real-world banks like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are taking notice, filing patents for blockchain-related technologies. But that's not all - institutions like the Intercontinental Exchange and Nasdaq are building cryptocurrency trading platforms! Now, I know mainstream adoption is still in its early days, but these developments show a growing recognition of Bitcoin's potential in traditional finance. The future is looking bright, and I'm excited to see where this momentum takes us!"
POO Coins are up 1.5X vs #BTC since June. HOW HIGH CAN THEY GO?This chart is of the market cap of #Altcoins divided by the marketcap of #Bitcoin.
If this ratio is going UP
Sh@tcoins (to give them their colloqiual name)
are out performing the #1 #Crypto asset.
("there is NO 2nd best.. " M. Saylor)
Risk ON.
Aka Silly season.
If this ratio is going down.
Then S coins are underperforming BTC
Bear market... S coins getting wiped out.
.... Got it?
Good.
Throwing on a Fib extension
(please draw your own chart... I am not a Fibonnaci expert by any means)
We can speculate how high,
and how much they will outperform.
and the magnitude of gains left on the table
Take Your pick of the extension level.
Or retracement Level if you are a Bitcoin Maxi, and don't believe a new ATH will be made in this ratio...
Good Luck in your speculations.
Bitcoin on the Cusp of a new Bull MarketThis new BTC cycle continues to rhyme with the previous 3 cycles almost perfectly.
everyone said this cycle would be different but I am just seeing more of the same...
In trading we should expect the same until proven otherwise, its like the trader continuing to attempt a break out trade while the market is moving sideways in a range, it might reject 7-8 times before it finally breaks out a changes its behaviour.
So far in the reaccumulation year price has moved up to the 0.618 which is the pre-halving target, exactly the same thing happend in the last 2 cycles, and its happening again this cycle.
Now the ETF approval could change that this cycle and we could push above the 0.618 pre halving which 47k on BTC for this cycle, so we have an outlier factor in play.
We could see trading above but a throw back before the weekly and monthly closes OR a change of charater that is more bullish and potentially we see a new all time high before the halving for the first time ever... I think thats unlikely and we see a 30% throw back between the ETFs launch and the halving.
Then post halving we start to feel the increased demand from the new institutional channels, and incentives wall st brokers will be getting, plus the marketing budgets to sugget and advertise people to buy BTC ETFS... combined with the cut in supply from the halving, leads us into a new bull run.
IF we hit similar Fib targets as the last cycle that could move us up to levels around 180k at the 3.272 for a lower target, 3.618 equalling last cycles high would be 200k, and potentially an over shoot to around 230k at the 4.236 fib level.
lets see what the market brews up for us and as always we need to keep an eye on cycle timing, FED liquidity levels, whats happening with interest rates and QE/QT around the end of 2025.
Thanks for following see you in the next update.
Macro, multi year view of BTC. Update 1Notes on the chart:
• Month counting starts from where a new bull run begins and on the chart it marks how many months it took for the full cycle to complete (roughly 49mo).
• Blue horizontal lines are BTC halvings.
• Green zones are accumulation zones
Overall update of the 4-year journey
Back from our previous post we were looking at when the lows would be printed. After the rally in H1 of 2023, we are now looking at the expectations in the year looking forward and up to 2025.
In trend with previous years when a new cycle starts an initial top is usually printed within 6 months and this time was no different. Based on history, from month 6 (July 23) onwards, up until the halving which is expected in March 2024, BTC has seen significant drops.
However, I would strongly argue this is the true accumulation zone:
1) Confirmation of the 4-year cycle low has been set. Of course, this can be invalidated, but I would say that a significant catastrophic event would be needed to reach such levels.
2) Before every bull run, a shake-out is needed as it achieves the transfer of bitcoin from retail back to investors AND
3) Large institutions are finally eyeing to tap into the market and be exposed to this.
I think it would be impossible for anyone in this space to miss the idea of a BTC spot ETF being delayed over and over but the narratives just seem to be perfectly aligning for the upcoming years 24,25. Those would be: US elections, returning to QE as recession fears grow (consumer spending is dwindling), possibly the Ukraine war will be over, and BTC halving.
Takeaway
The period up until the halving will be volatile. However, based on history DCA up until the halving should allow you to have a fairly comfortable position for the following years.
#BITCOIN's 3 Year Moving Average = FIRM CEILINGWE SHOULD HAVE BROKEN above this 3 year average by now
and been using it as support to provide a launchpad into next year's having.
INSTEAD it has firmly been capping prices during these last few months when historicallym it would have been penetrated by now.
Quite concerning for those who are still heavily in #Altcoins
If Bitcoin Repeated 2019In today's idea, we're going to entertain a "what if" scenario for CRYPTOCAP:BTC : what if the price of Bitcoin does an exact repeat of what happened back in 2019 up until the high in early 2021?
This hypothesis is based off the candle pattern that starts from the 2019 mid-cycle high (1). So, assuming April 2023 was our mid-cycle high of $31,035, it's interesting to note the possibility of further downside continuation for BTC.
From here on out it would be a slow grind down to $16,506 (2), then a sharp move to FWB:25K (3) (which would be an excellent fake out), then a final dump to $10,731 (4). While we aren't expecting (or hoping for) a repeat of the COVID crash that happened in March 2020, it's interesting to note that such a panic could push Bitcoin's price down to $10k- a level that would cause extreme fear and panic.
Lastly, the candle projection takes us just over $100k in early 2025 (5)- a realistic ATH target for Bitcoin in our opinion.
Note that this idea is purely based on a "what if" scenario, and should not be taken as financial advice.
Bitcoin next 4 year cycle top October 2025 $BTCBNC:BLX
Both the current bear market top to bottom and previous bear market is within the same timeframe within a 2 week candle. Both the last 2 bull markets lasted the same time within 2 weeks. Nearly eactly 50% through each bull market was the top of an automatic rally (Wyckoff AR) or key pivot RH3. This would put the top of the next automatic rally at May 2024 and the end of the bull market at Mid Oct 2025 4 year cycle
BTC Pi Cycle Bullrun SignalHello friends
Today im going to show you a good reason for next Bullrun in Bitcoin.
Pi cycle includes 2 Moving Average:
One Long MA and One Short MA.
when we devide this 2 MA the result equals PI number (around 3.15)
The best Long MA is 471 DAY and the best Short MA is 150 DAY.
I illustrate them in BLX chart and yo see the last 2 times that Pi cycle Bottom works properly.
the first Bottom was on JAN 2015 and second Bottom was on JAN 2019 and NOW on JAN 2023 (as i show them with Red Circles in my chart)
the indicator signal a Potential Bottom for BTC.
If Short MA (RED) surpass Long MA(GREEN) we call it a PARABOLA and the Bottom confirmed.
If you think more about that you understand this cycle happened every 4 years actually on January.
2015 - 2019 and NOW 2023.
So i explained Technical and Time Cycle Analysis for this Strong Indicator.
Hope it predict Bottoms WELL.
Be Profitable
Thank You for reading my Idea
Share me your Opinion.
Do you think BTC make a bottom NOW?
Macro, multi year view of BTC. Expectations of next cycle.In the chart you can see the following:
a) blue lines are the halvings that BTC went through and the estimated one in 2024
b) the measure of time between each cycle low and halving
c) how long it took to top out after the halving
Hi everyone,
I just want to share my view of the following years in Bitcoin. I am a long-term swing trader and I build my trades around time and human psychology (i.e. cycles). I would like to keep it short and sweet and outline the critical aspects of what this chart seems to portray.
A) First of all, it is very likely that we are seeing absolute cycle lows.
The timing with each cycle seems about right and I think that a leg lower from here, would be free money, right? Well, not so fast. We need to mention the incoming "doom and gloom" that's ahead of us. And well, what moves this world, will also move bitcoin - DEBT. This asset class has not gone through an inflationary crisis (yet). However, looking at the reaction of bonds in the recent year and all the currencies devaluation to the USD dollar, it does seem that we must have reached a "local" top in some sense. HINT: This might be good for bitcoin.
Therefore, while I wouldn't rush saying this is time to sell all your house belongings and buy BTC here, I do think it is worthy of your attention . As I previously said above, if it goes below, I would try to deploy capital very aggressively. So to sum up this point, timing and price decline feel right for a cycle low.
B) Next bull run might run closer to being a left-translated cycle - aka. it might top faster than the previous cycles.
It can be observed that with each cycle, we are getting closer and closer to making a cycle top much earlier in the cycle. With a little bit of cheeky maths, if we are to observe an arithmetic decline in the time required from one top to another, you would see that this time around we would require 10 to 14 weeks after halving to reach a top. This makes sense to me for 2 reasons.
1) Over time it only makes sense that the price reaches its highest point in the anticipation of the halving. Our well-known "sell the event" type of thing. We have seen how this has played out in crypto numerous times, I hope this isn't a debate anymore.
2)Two, once a force kicks in one direction it will also swing in the other direction with at least a similar force. And yes, I'm talking about macro world events. There has been an acute amount of negativity that has been bundled up in the last two years and I think in one to two years from here is plenty enough for this to clear out. This includes lower inflation, we find out that debt and financial markets do not implode and perhaps the whole Russia-Ukraine and broader conflict will be coming to an end. You can check previous inflation charts in the US during the 1900s and they all show a quick peak and then a prolonged period of higher inflation (roughly 4%) - seems survivable to me. When it comes to the Russian conflict, wars at this scale would not last more than 3-4 years as it is too expensive and would just bankrupt the country. Russia would not go that far even if they seem like they would.
So people will be relieved, more happy --> more productive --> back to growth folks.
I hope all of this makes sense and that you have enjoyed reading my thoughts. Prove me wrong.
A Closer Look at BTC Cycle StagesI've already posted a chart on the 4-year cycle for Bitcoin (link below). This is a more detailed look at it. At first glance, the previous cycle looks different from the current cycle except for some very basic framework, but upon closer examination, they are in fact essentially the same even at the specific parts. It's intriguing enough that it's hard to be a bear right now.
-
RVGI analysis on BTC Monthly ChartAll the ideas are on the chart. You need to know that you should ignore if RVGI crosses in series, it only makes sense if it crosses after not crossing for a long time.
I can see that I ignore a couple of things like we didn't spend all 365 days on bear market after last downside cross of RVGI, actually no explanation for that I just think from 64k to 69k in 7 months is not exactly bull market we just spend a couple of months correction and accumulation then tried to put another ride but the time was not right.
BTC Long Term Idea 2022-2025Probably nothing.
FED and the USA inflation rates has changed the dynamics of the Crypto Market since Bitcoin has a correlation with -NASDAQ-
My last idea which has a pitchfork channel from 2017 top was broken after -NASDAQ- correlation, thus I am making a new strategy.
First of all I believe that we need to follow up 11 May 2022 due to the USA inflation rate publishes.
If the inflation rates goes below 8,1% that may give a positive signal to -NASDAQ-, -S&P- and -Dow Jones- and that will be reflected to Bitcoin as well. So I believe that we can follow 55000 - 57000 USD (0.618 fib line) for 2022 Summer and then we will enter a boring market up to new BTC Halving Date which will be approximately 2 May 2024.
I hope that BTC will reach 185000USD in 2025 after 2024 Halving.
A Critical Analysis of the 200D (Aqua) & 600D (Teal) SMAThis post critically analyses how BTC has behaved after a cycle top with respect to the 200D SMA and 600D SMA, comparing similar periods to 2013-15 and 2017-18 (shown using blue boxes) to the current price behaviour (if indeed BTC has made it’s cycle top this bull run already).
PRICE CHART
The 200D SMA (shown in Aqua or light blue) and 600D SMA (shown in Teal or dark green) is plotted on the chart with my custom Pi Cycle Top & Bottom indicators and BTC halving's included to help differentiate BTC Cycles.
Historically Once BTC has made a cycle top and price subsequently dropped below the 200D SMA, BTC tends to use the 200D SMA as resistance until BTC eventually break through it. After dropping below the 200D SMA, BTC has historically found support at the 600D SMA, and price is 'squeezed' or becomes ranged bound between these two moving averages. In both cases when this occurred in 2013-15 and 2017-18 (as shown in the blue boxes on the price chart), BTC broke to the down side, and the cross between these two moving averages have then approximated our next cycle bottom.
Interestingly in 2013, BTC did not drop below the 200D after our first Pi Cycle Top indicator flag (actually using the 200D as support in July 2013 initially) which allowed us to continue on to a second cycle Top and new ATH for BTC.
In Feb 2018, BTC initially tried to use the 200D as support, but broke through to the downside shortly after and the same outcome prevailed. This was one indication to BTC holders that 2017 may not be a double peak cycle like 2013 was.
These similarities to the current price action paints a bearish picture for BTC and crypto markets, calling for the end of the current cycle Bull run and that BTC is heading for its next cycle bottom. Price is currently right now ranged bound between the 200D SMA and the 600D SMA very similar to the blue box regions identified above with our first confirmed rejection of the 200D SMA in March 2022 and many tests of the 600D since Jan 2022. From a TA (technical Analysis) / S/R (Support & Resistance) level prospective; a large dump is very plausible if the 29-30K USD price level is lost.
Before a bearish sentiment is locked in from this analysis, let’s look at what is different from now to the prior times we have seen this price behaviour from BTC? Firstly we did break the 200D during this bull run back in May 2021 but was able to quickly recover in August 2021, and dipped and bounced in September and November until again falling below in December 2021. BTC has never achieved this since putting in a cycle top or in a cycle bear market (NOTE: BTC has never done this either in a bull market as price is usually above the 200D SMA in this case).
BTC has also been in a trading range between ~60K to ~30K for more than a year during a bull run. This has never happened before with BTC. Sideways price action can make short term signals from moving averages less relevant. The support and resistance zones created through this trading range made hold more significant. A sweep of the 29K lows with volume would act as a spring traders looking at this trading range are waiting for and if this demand zone holds could start the next leg to finish off this bull run for the cycle.
MA OSSILATOR
The MA Oscillator is another custom indicator I have built in trading view to look at the %difference between price and moving averages (amounts other things). As shown, this indicator is set up to show the %change from price of the 200D SMA (Navy) and 600D SMA (Teal or dark green). The way to view this analysis is what happens to the price of BTC when price reaches a %increase above or %decrease below the moving average or is equal to it.
From this analysis, we see each time price has dropped ~100% from both the 200D SMA and the 600D SMA at the same time (i.e. both lines reach the bottom of the green zone), this has Marked BTC’s cycle bottom. Similarly each time we have price extend 57% or greater above both the 600D SMA and 200D SMA (i.e. land in the red zone), this has marked a significant local top and or a cycle top.
Comparing the squeeze zones in price, each time including now the 200D line was below 0% and rising before and the Teal line was able the 0% line and falling before resulting in a large dump that takes us to our next cycle bottom.
RSI
I have included the RSI for Reference as cross analysis of Peak in RSI and other indicators can help identify cycle peaks.
SUMMARY
Holding ~$29-$30K zone will be significant for bulls believing in lengthening cycles and that our cycle top ATH is still to come. If price does test these levels, then strong volumes and buying pressure will be expected to turn price around quickly.
There is a lot of on chain data to support this theory. I would be following central banks and the FED, a delaying in interest rate tightening schedule may be the catalyst for this scenario.
If these levels are lost, then it is likely BTC will continue this trend with the 200D SMA and 600D SMA; confirming our prior cycle top is in, the bull run is over, an eventual dump down to the 200W SMA probable and putting in our next cycle bottom.
The Bitcoin comfort zone - 90K within range? @tradingparrot Based on logarithmic model and 4-year halving cycle model we don't need a blow off top in the current cycle to get to 90K.
We can just literally stay in the bitcoin comfort zone logarithmic channel and chill until we get there.
Not financial advice but I kind of resonate with this idea.
I'll be publish a video on youtube tonight with all the detail of this analysis.
I'm tagging this as bullish in the context of the daily chart and with a time frame of months to a full year to allow the model to play out.
150K Bitcoin Top?Posted this earlier today but it got flagged for adding my twitter handle so im posting again.
A lot of times this cycle is compared to the BTC cycle in 2013. However right now price action is looking very similar to 2017. We have bottomed out on almost the exact day in July and have been following the price movement of the second half of 2017 very closely.
The 55 EMA looks to be important to watch during these times. In July 2017, BTC had broken below the 55EMA before bottoming out, very similar to July 2021. They then proceeded to make higher highs and higher lows before having a second break and close below in September. It recovered relatively quickly from here and went on to continue the uptrend.
In both 2017 and 2021 when we bottomed in July and September, we had a double bottom on the RSI . In November of 2017 we didnt reach the bottom levels of the RSI trend during that correction but we did correct and continued the uptrend on the RSI once we tested and bounced off of the 55 EMA on the daily.
We just tested the 55EMA, and are currently looking for a bounce. If this plays out until the end of the year we could see a cycle top of 150k as soon as December 21st of this year.
After we reestablish the 7 MA next close below could be the signal that the top is in.
Good luck!
