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500

Recession After Fed Rate Cut?Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024. However, if we look back of history of recession based on GDP indicated by FED data (ticker: JHDUSRGDPBR) which is the pink color. It shows that recession only happen right after FED cut rate as show by lime color (ticker:FEDFUNDS). It hard to believe that recession is caused by the FED cutting rate. Or the FED will only cut rate if we are heading toward recession? At least from the past history of rate cut we can see high chance of recession happening after the FED cut rate. And during the recession we can see that S&P500 are falling. So will there be another crash coming after Sep 2024? Please comments below.
SP:SPX
by danny_peanuts
1
SPX Analysis by Deno Trading: Key Levels to Watch ForMy Take: Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion. Key Levels: Resistance: $5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback. Support: $5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again. Trendline Support: The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone. Expectations: Pullback Potential: Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280. Continuation of the Uptrend: If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside. Final Thoughts: Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs. This is a video coverage of an analysis that I did yesterday. Stay Positive!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
What's S&P500 & Why Needs a Price CorrectionThe S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best indicators of the overall health of the U.S. stock market and the economy. The companies included in the index span a wide range of industries, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods, among others. The index is weighted by market capitalization, meaning larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance. Why SP500 needs a Price Correction? A price correction occurs when the value of a stock or a market index, like the S&P 500, declines by a certain percentage, typically 10% or more, after a sustained period of upward movement. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can happen for several reasons. Here are a few reasons why stocks may need to go down in order to make a correction: 1. Overvaluation: When stocks become overvalued relative to their earnings, assets, or growth potential, a correction helps realign prices with their intrinsic value. Investors may have driven prices too high due to speculation or overly optimistic expectations, and a correction brings valuations back to more reasonable levels. 2. Market Euphoria and Excessive Risk-Taking: When the market experiences excessive optimism, driven by factors like low-interest rates, easy access to capital, or speculative trading, it can lead to inflated stock prices. A correction serves as a reality check, reducing excessive risk-taking and bringing prices back to sustainable levels. 3. Economic Slowdown or Uncertainty: Economic indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, or consumer spending can signal a slowdown. If the economy is weakening, companies may struggle to meet earnings expectations, leading to lower stock prices. A correction allows the market to adjust to a new economic reality. 4. Interest Rate Changes: Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce corporate profits, which can lead to a market correction. Higher rates also make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, prompting investors to reallocate their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on stock prices. 5. Profit-Taking by Investors: After a strong market rally, investors may start taking profits, especially if they believe prices have peaked. This selling pressure can lead to a correction as stock prices adjust to lower levels. Conclusion Corrections are a necessary and healthy part of the market cycle, helping to prevent bubbles from forming and ensuring that stock prices reflect the underlying fundamentals of companies and the economy. Although corrections can be unsettling for investors, they often create buying opportunities and contribute to the long-term stability of the market.
SP:SPXShort
by MiguelFTCurado
3
CAN THE MARKET SURVIVE AN 80% CRASH, WHAT ABOUT ONLY 40%?So, for anyone who likes to watch certain movements. A big one is about to occur. A rejection from this break is the covid drop. about 30% and some. However, the end of the cycle, if you believe in those kind of things, would be a 100% retrace of the impulse with a little extra on the downside, which closes all gaps, I believe. That takes us down below 200. It would have to be quick. Next cycle then starts and pulls us up to $600. I tried to mark it in orange. This chart isn't an idea as in (I REALLY THINK WE'RE DROPPING 80% in less than 1 year). This is more to show that trend break from the past and the trend break showing. 518 to 530. CAREFUL ZONE!!! Market is showing a lot of crazy movements and numbers. I think something has to be "up" such as China and Taiwan considering what we're seeing with semiconductors.
AMEX:SPYShort
by nicktussing77
6
🔥 GPBUSD BEARISH ANALYSIS 🎯🔥✅Hello traders what do you think about Gpbusd)? traders 1h tame frame see a bearish pattern channels breakout. rsl retet 1.26393 Down 👇 support levels ✅ 1.25222 now waiting. Same time Dollar steady as traders weigh labour data; yuan eases Dec 6, 202311:22 GMT+5 The dollar was near a two-week high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as investors assessed U.S. economic data that showed a cooling labour market, while wagering the Federal Reserve will cut rates next year. The spotlight in Asia was on China, where the yuan extended losses as markets grappled with rating agency Moody's cut to the Asian giant's credit outlook. The dollar index DXY , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was 0.029% lower at 103.93, having climbed 0.3% overnight. The index is up 0.5% this month, after sliding 3% in November, its steepest monthly decline in a year. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings fell to more than a 2-1/2-year low in October, the strongest sign yet that higher interest rates were dampening demand for workers. Data also showed there were 1.34 vacancies for every unemployed person in October, the lowest since August 2021. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore, said the data indicated that the cooling of the labour market is on track. "It puts a lot of focus now on the non farm payrolls this Friday." The November jobs data will provide further clues on the labour market ahead of the Fed's policy meeting next week Fed officials are now in a blackout period ahead of the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 12-13 meeting, where a key focus will be the updated projections of where they see rates at in 2024. Dollar steady as traders weigh labour data; yuan eases Dec 6, 202311:22 GMT+5 The dollar was near a two-week high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as investors assessed U.S. economic data that showed a cooling labour market, while wagering the Federal Reserve will cut rates next year. The spotlight in Asia was on China, where the yuan extended losses as markets grappled with rating agency Moody's cut to the Asian giant's credit outlook. The dollar index DXY , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was 0.029% lower at 103.93, having climbed 0.3% overnight. The index is up 0.5% this month, after sliding 3% in November, its steepest monthly decline in a year. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings fell to more than a 2-1/2-year low in October, the strongest sign yet that higher interest rates were dampening demand for workers. Data also showed there were 1.34 vacancies for every unemployed person in October, the lowest since August 2021. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore, said the data indicated that the cooling of the labour market is on track. "It puts a lot of focus now on the non farm payrolls this Friday." The November jobs data will provide further clues on the labour market ahead of the Fed's policy meeting next week Fed officials are now in a blackout period ahead of the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 12-13 meeting, where a key focus will be the updated projections of where they see rates at in 2024. Traders have priced in 99.7% chance of the Fed standing pat next week but a 56% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, according to CME's FedWatch tool. They have also priced in at least 125 basis points worth of cuts next year. (FEDWATCH) Mitra said there could be a snapback should the Fed drive home the message more forcefully that it is not about to cut rates anytime soon.
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
SP500 James Cameron in a Trench Pattern Developing I mean, clear as day. I won't say there is potential to see a 40% crash in less than 3 months of time, but there is potential to see a long term target of 3300 and then going even lower 2500. There is a crossing of two MAJOR trends about to occur. Both of these trends project the top being somewhere in that 4800 range. The scary part is the way trends stack up near FEB/March. IF price action followed along some of these trends, and we did indeed see a top around 4800, with a break in our strongest trend support line, then we could potentially see a rare, but possible movement where exit points along both of these trends line up in a way where each trend will signal a massive sell around the same point. Because these trends are so extremely strong. We could see a big drop all the way down to 3300, 2500, and then potentially all the way down to 1490 before we start to really climb again. So for better news, in the short term, there is a likely scenario where a short term down trend takes us right to the massive support trend, and that also lines up with support lines. This price is like 4210. This is the movement that will likely bring us up to 4800, which is where things start to get scary if price can't find some stability over 5000.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by nicktussing77
Ideal Bull setup? We will see 👀We are at a point were speculation can take over reality and I am hesitant in picking a direction specially when we have PPI coming out tomorrow. Still today I was expecting for ES to take out its highs at $4498 which it did, but I was also looking for a stronger rejection that the retest we got. This is due to the Dollar weakness. Tomorrow Thursday is hands off till after news. What can happen? Price can stablish a new high and continue higher towards it target at $4586 not sure if we have the juice for that but it is best to be prepared. It all depends on what is taken out first. Yes. If the lows at $4500-4496 are our first target the we can expect if we see a bounce a new High and a good attempt for those really juicy highs at $4586 Please keep in mind the dollar index it should be your guide. What I would like to see? I would like to see energetic stregth to the upside if not we are bound to retest lows sooner rather than later.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JP_Tru
P2P | SPX - Mark upHey there trading family, just wanted to drop a few transparent pieces relating to any recent posts about #DXY. As I mentioned, I am overall bullish on the #dollarindex due to numerous reasons I explained in the videos. This mark up on SPX was on of the chart ideas I had from this previous week and my long term analysis was correct! So going over this trade, I'm simply using opposing forces combined with some #smt #ict knowledge of time and price (for the most part) and forming an idea around what SPX could proceed with next week. Now for the record I don't normally trade SPX so this was a step out of my comfort zone. I wanted to post it to show that, becoming a great you must accept loses, so in my mind I'm already thinking "this could go horribly right or beautifully wrong" lol but either way I'm okay with the risk so I would be okay with the trade. In conclusion I believe we will see SPX continue to fall but only in correlation to the dollar index. This mark up is more set on a long term Q by Q play so I will update the trade periodically! & No more disclaimers, I expect everyone who follows the channel to be wise enough and financially competent to trade at their own risk. Love yall, trade well, and make it your mission to put the work in all 2023!
SP:SPXLong
by Pips2Porsches
S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 4168.50 Pivot: 4072.75 Support: 3915.00 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPXis bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Expecting price to drop towards the support at 3915.00, which is the overlap support. Alternative scenario: Price could head back up towards the resistance at 4168.50, where the recent high is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Genesiv
S&P 500 Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 4168.50 Pivot: 4104.00 Support: 3915.00 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPXis bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Expecting price to drop towards the support at 3915.00, which is the overlap support. Alternative scenario: Price could head back up towards the resistance at 4168.50, where the recent high is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Genesiv
SPX Potential for bullish rise to recent highLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bullish with the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , Looking for a pullback buy entry at 4017.64, where the overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at the overlap support at 3955.19. Take profit will be at 4197.04, where the recent high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by VantageMarkets
S&P 500 Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 4327.50 Pivot: 4147.75 Support: 4091.75 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to continue heading towards the resistance at 4327.50, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to retest the support at 4091.75, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Genesiv
SPX Potential for Bullish Rise towards previous swing highLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy stop entry at 4195.44, where the recent high is to ride the bullish momentum Stop loss will be at 4100.51, where the overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 4325.28, where the previous swing high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SP:SPXLong
by VantageMarkets
1
Bitcoin and SP-500 examples of bottom formation and continuationIn these charts I showed the bottoms of the SP500 in 1970, 1975, 2003, 2009 and a potential bottom in 2023. After each impulse from the bottom upwards you can see a small correction, but afterwards still continue to rise. My point with this analysis is that I don't see a deep dive down. But getting carried away with big leverage or all-in right now in this stage of the market is very dangerous for your deposit. Frankly, I've had a negative scenario for 3 weeks now, but I'm not posting it because it's not the time to open shorts. But what natural cataclysms are happening these days in Turkey, anything can happen, and the Yellowstone volcano that has been talked about for a long time may be the same black swan I want to see more interesting ideas from you in the comments Best regards EXCAVO
SP:SPX
by EXCAVO
11
SPX Potential for Bullish Rise towards previous swing highLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 4087.14, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 4015.39, where the previous overlap support is. Take profit will be at 4325.28, where the previous swing high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SP:SPXLong
by VantageMarkets
2