50ema-retest
Crude Oil headed lower or higher from here?This is why I think Oil will head lower.
October 5th and 6th were very big down days that created an imbalance around the 87.1 area.
We saw a break down of the channel and now even after news it only retested the 87.1 area and wasn't able to get above that.
Currently, it's trading just below the broken channel and is struggling to get more traction.
Bear case:
The Bulls aren't able to push the price higher above the 87.1 and we head lower. If that's the case we may see Oil head lower to the low 70's or high 60's area. That'd be roughly the measured objective of the broken channel.
Bull case:
The Bulls push past the 87.1 area and have a decisive move above it.
This would result in a false break down of the channel and would open the possibility of a much stronger move towards the $95 area and potentially higher.
A false break to one side of a pattern like this often cause an aggressive move in the opposite direction.
All that being said, this of course, will affect Energy stocks so be sure to manage your risk and DYDD
SP500 terminal pattern and what I'm looking at.Here's what I'm looking at.
We're currently finding support around the 4440 area along with the 50 day EMA.
This recent pull back (last week) was on lower than average volume with the price closing off lows.
The recent green day's we've seen i.e. Friday, Monday and Today were on higher volume than the days we pulled back. This shows that there's buying demand around this area.
Now, 4490 along with the upper white trend line will act as a confluence of resistance.
Bullish Scenario
We break above the 4490 area this week and hold above it on a daily closing basis. This will show buyers conviction and willing to push the market higher. If that happens, the 4540 area would be the next major resistance; and a break above that would be really bullish.
Bearish Scenario
We move higher towards the 4490 area only to find selling pressure and head lower. If that's the case I doubt 4440 would be able to hold as support and we may end up moving lower to the 4360 area as that would be the confluence of support by the lower trend line and that horizontal level.
Tomorrows PPI numbers and Unemployment numbers will set the expectation and tone for the FED meeting in the following week.
The pattern in the chart attached is a terminal pattern so we have until October 13th, 2023 to break out of it to either side.
As always DYDD and be sure to manage your risk.
Losing a small amount of your allocated capital is better than having that capital stuck in an under performing asset.
Will even the mighty Apple head lower?Made a double top from Nov 21 to May 22. Then fell and retested the 50 EMA before continuing back down. Stochastic starting to look oversold, but it looks to be heading towards its 200EMA. Next few months will tell.
WARNING: This is not a solicitation to trade. Make your own decisions and manage your own risk.
$LSTR is showing signs of moving higher from its cup and handle!Notes:
* Strong up trend on all time frames
* Good earnings track record QoQ with a few misses
* Basing for the past ~14 months
* Creating a cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart
* The handle pulled back to its 50 day line and used it as support
* It's now breaking out of the handle with higher than average volume on the weekly chart
* Offering an early entry along with a pocket pivot indicating institutional demand
Technicals:
* Sector: Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics
* Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.75
* Relative Strength vs. SP500: 2.32
* U/D Ratio(50): 1.07
* U/D Ratio(15): 1.27
* Base Depth: 34.1%
* Distance from breakout buy point: -5.51%
* Volume 105.58% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as it's just breaking out of its handle with higher than average volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you may find one around the 168.5 area as that could serve as intermediate support
Can $WSC make new ATHs?Notes:
* Strong up trend on all time frames
* Beating its revenue expectations consistently
* Breaking out of a ~11 week base
* Pulled back to its 50 day line and has been moving higher since
* Offering a low risk entry
* Creating a base on base pattern and pulled back to the highs of the previous base
* Showing recent accumulation
* It's creating a cup like pattern and may pull back after reaching the $49 area to create the handle.
Technicals:
* Sector: Industrials - Rental & Leasing Services
* Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.27
* Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.68
* U/D Ratio(50): 0.61
* U/D Ratio(15): 1.1
* Base Depth: 12.15%
* Distance from breakout buy point: -2.35%
* Volume -12.69% below its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as it's still moving higher, close to its 50 day line and offering a low risk entry around a support level.
* If you're looking for a better entry you may find one around the 47.6 area or the 46.9 area.
Is $ATKR ready to head higher?Notes:
* Very strong up trend
* Great earnings QoQ
* Basing for the past ~9 weeks
* Forming a cup and handle in this period
* Incoming volume
* Offering an early entry as it's still close to the 50 day line
* More buyers in the market recently
Technicals:
Sector: Industrials - Specialty Industrial Machinery
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 3.0
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 4.72
U/D Ratio(50): 1.19
U/D Ratio(15): 2.47
Base Depth: 81.04%
Distance from breakout buy point: -2.92%
Volume 7.67% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is still close to its 50 day line and is breaking above the resistance level of 123.53
* If you want a better entry you may be able to find one around the broken resistance area if it's retested as support.
* Or if it does pull back you may be able to find a better entry around $121.72
Is $EXTR ready for the next move higher?Notes:
* Strong up trend
* Great earnings QoQ
* Basing for the past ~8 weeks
* Pulled back to its 50 day line and found support around the 18.17 area
* Now coming up on the right side of its base with higher than average volume
* Offering an early entry
* Printed a Pocket Pivot, indicating institutional demand
Technicals:
Sector: Technology - Communication Equipment
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 5.94
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 5.88
U/D Ratio: 0.97
Base Depth: 15.74%
Distance from breakout buy point: -5.99%
Volume 88.56% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* Now's a great time to enter as it's just coming off of its 50 day line and also printed a pocket pivot.
* Based on its prior performance, $EXTR can go another ~17.6% from here.
* If you're looking for a better entry you may be able to catch one around 19.3
AUDUSD - Possible Long Position Please give me some feedback and let me know what you think.
Multi time frame Analysis
1D time frame price is in a Strong Uptrend giving a Long Bias
4H time frame price is trading in a Ascending Wedge and in a immediate Uptrend giving a Long Bias
1H time frame price is in a Uptrend respecting Trendline and 26EMA giving a Long Bias
Setup and Entry
Wait for price to retrace back to 0.50 - 0.168 Fib zone and bounce off 26EMA to go Long
Is $CLFD ready to start coming up on the right side of its base?Notes:
* Strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings in the recent years
* Basing for about 9 weeks
* Starting o come up on the right side of its base with volume
* Created a launch pad with the 10,20 and 50 EMAs
Technicals:
Sector: Technology - Communication Equipment
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 4.11
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 6.57
U/D Ratio: 1.24
Base Depth: 43.31%
Distance from breakout buy point: -18.43%
Volume 0.44% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as it's just coming off of the launch pad with volume
* It's also breaking above a clear resistance area of ~105.4
* If you're unsure at the moment you can wait for a retest of the the ~106 area as support before jumping in.
$ENSG poised to go higher from here?Notes:
* Very strong up trend on the weekly/monthly charts
* Great earnings for the past few years
* Basing for the past 19 months
* Creating a cup and handle
* Trying to break out of the handle
* Strong resistance around the $85.4 area
Technicals:
Ticker: $ENSG
Sector: Healthcare - Medical Care Facilities
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 28.52
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 11.74
U/D Ratio: 1.15
Base Depth: 36.29%
Distance from breakout buy point: -9.18%
Volume 16.02% above its 15 day avg.
Trade idea:
* Not jumping into this just yet.
* Waiting to see if it can stay above the $85.4 area and hold it as support.
Can $DLTR push higher from here?Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings in the recent quarters and in general
* Creating a base on base pattern for the past ~8 months
* Price is mostly keeping above its 50 day line since mid April with a few dips below
* Volatility is contracting with signs of accumulation
Technicals:
Sector: Consumer Defensive - Discount Stores
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.58
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 3.05
U/D Ratio: 1.24
Base Depth: 36.34%
Distance from breakout buy point: -3.83%
Volume 17.45% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just above its 50 day line with increasing volume
* If you want a better entry you can look for one around the $163.7 - $162.1 area as that should hold as support
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 15.72% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 15.52% to 15.92% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 2.4% away from its 50 EMA
Caution:
* Earnings are coming up and the stock could move either way. If you want to play it safe, wait till after earnings to jump in.
$KBR is showing signs of moving higher!Notes:
* Very strong up trend since 2016
* Great earnings track record
* Basing for the past ~5 months
* Created a double bottom and is now approaching the top of the handle
* Recently bounced off of its 50 day line
* Offering a low risk entry
Technicals:
Sector: Industrials - Engineering & Construction
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.23
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 2.26
U/D Ratio: 1.52
Base Depth: 28.54%
Distance from breakout buy point: -7.85%
Volume 10.62% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is still close to its 50 day line on stable volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you can look for one around the 51.8/9 area as that should hold as support
* If you're looking for a safer entry you can wait for a break and hold above 53.26
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 15.01% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 14.81% to 15.21% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 4.37% away from its 50 EMA
$ZGN an IPO coming up on the right side of its base!Notes:
* Coming up on the right side of its IPO base
* Has been using its 50 day line as a dynamic level of support
* Recently broke above an important resistance level around 11.22 with higher than average volume
* Has been increasing steadily in price and volume
* Printed a pocket pivot with squatting price action (not ideal)
Technicals:
Sector: Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Manufacturing
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.04
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 2.37
U/D Ratio: 3.51
Base Depth: 39.96%
Distance from breakout buy point: -9.73%
Volume 117.75% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* I particularly don't like the squatting price action at the moment so I personally wouldn't enter now.
* If the price holds above 11.22 and stops squatting I may consider entering
* If you want to enter now you can as the price is just above the broken resistance level of 11.22
* If you're looking for a better entry you may just want to wait and see how the price behaves around this level
* I'll post about this again if it makes better progress.
Is $CCJ ready to start coming up on the right side of its base?Notes:
* Strong up trend since March 2020
* Good earnings in the recent quarters
* Has been basing for ~5 months now
* Seems to have formed a double bottom with a handle
* Printed a pocket pivot with a bullish pin bar in the last session
* Red lines denote historical levels
Technicals:
Sector: Energy - Uranium
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.32
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.64
U/D Ratio: 1.02
Base Depth: 57.8%
Distance from breakout buy point: -21.39%
Volume -6.15% below its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is close to its 50 day line and is offering a potential early entry
* If you want a safe entry you can wait for a break above 26.16 as that is immediate resistance
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 20.97% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 20.77% to 21.17% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 5.76% away from its 50 EMA
Can $HRMY break historical resistance once again?Notes:
* Steady up trend on all time frames
* Okay earnings track record
* Trying to break above historical resistance of the ~52.8 area
* Pulled back to the 50 day line
* Printed a bullish outside day in the last session
* Earnings report reaction sold off to the 50 day but bounce from there indicating demand around the $50.34 area
Technicals:
Sector: Healthcare - Biotechnology
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 17.65
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 41.59
U/D Ratio: 0.96
Base Depth: 70.33%
Distance from breakout buy point: -8.1%
Volume 8.87% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as volume comes in after the earnings report reaction
* If you want a better entry you can find one around the $51.7 area
* If you want a safer entry you can wait for a clear break/hold above the ~52.8 area as that is historical resistance.
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 16.84% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 16.64% to 17.04% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 5.44% away from its 50 EMA
$AMPH is building a nice pivot area!Notes:
* Strong up trend since late 2021
* Great earnings track record
* Building a base for the past ~4 months
* Building a pivot area around $37.8 for the past three weeks
* Bounced off of the 50 day line with higher than average volume
* Has been using the 50 day line as a dynamic level of support for the past month or so
Technicals:
Sector: Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 3.28
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 7.72
U/D Ratio: 1.5
Base Depth: 49.24%
Distance from breakout buy point: -17.32%
Volume 20.79% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just bouncing off of its 50 day line
* If you want a better entry you can look for one around the $36 area as that seems to be acting as a pivot also
* If you want a safer entry you should wait for a clear break and hold above the $37.8 resistance area
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 23.22% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 23.02% to 23.42% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 3.03% away from its 50 EMA
Is $ATEN ready to come up on the right side of its base?Notes:
* Strong up trend since 2020
* Great earnings track record
* Basing for the past ~9 months
* Just broke back above IPO highs of $14.9 on the monthly time frame and retested it as support
* Recently came above its 200 day line and now coming above its 50 day
* Showing strength and accumulation
* Printed a pocket pivot in the last session indicating institutional demand
Technicals:
Sector: Technology - Software - Infrastructure
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 23.55
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 4.61
U/D Ratio: 1.59
Base Depth: 50.68%
Distance from breakout buy point: -18.94%
Volume 5.58% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* This is offering a low risk entry so you can enter now as the price is still close to its 50 day line and just retested $14.9 (Historical highs) as support
* If you're looking for a better entry you may be able to find one around the $14.9 area as that should hold as support moving forward
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 17.84% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 17.64% to 18.04% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 6.26% away from its 50 EMA
$FPI is coming up on the right side of its base!Notes:
* Strong up trend
* Not the best earnings record but the last report was really good
* Creating a base within a base
* Recently broke above historical highs of 14.42
* Increasing volume since the last earnings report
* Recently bounced off of the 50 day line with bullish price action and volume
Technicals:
Sector: Real Estate - REIT - Specialty
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.23
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 2.49
U/D Ratio: 1.25
Base Depth: 22.36%
Distance from breakout buy point: -9.29%
Volume 57.34% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just coming off of the 50 day line with increasing volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you can look for one around the 14.42 area as that should serve as support moving forward
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 18.47% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 18.27% to 18.67% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 4.8% away from its 50 EMA
$CI is breaking out of a ~14 month cup with handle pattern!Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings track record
* Breaking out of a ~14 month cup with handle pattern
* It did break out before but then pulled back (seems like a shakeout)
* Now it's been in a tight range just above the broken resistance creating new support
* The last session printed a pocket pivot indicating institutional buying
Technicals:
Sector: Healthcare - Healthcare Plans
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 5.55
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 28.95
U/D Ratio: 1.77
Base Depth: 43.95%
Distance from breakout buy point: 1.09%
Volume -5.44% below its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just above the broken resistance with the last session being a pocket pivot
* If you want a better entry you can look for one around the 270.1 area
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 9.18% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 8.98% to 9.38% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 3.9% away from its 50 EMA
Is $PAG recovering from its pull back?Notes:
* Strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings track record
* Pays out dividends
* Coming up on the right side of its base
* Basing for the past ~9 months and creating a base within a base
* Just breaking above the ~112 (historical resistance weekly chart) area with higher than average volume and bullish price action
* In the Automotive industry which is pretty hot right now
* Using the 50 day line as a dynamic level of support for the past several sessions and now bouncing off with higher than average volume
Technicals:
Sector: Consumer Cyclical - Auto & Truck Dealerships
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.12
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 2.92
U/D Ratio: 1.02
Base Depth: 20.61%
Distance from breakout buy point: -8.45%
Volume 38.61% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just bouncing off of its 50 day line with higher than average volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you can look for one around the ~110.5 area
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 12.3% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 12.1% to 12.5% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 5.63% away from its 50 EMA
$AJG is coming up on the right side of its base!Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings track record
* Basing for the past ~7 months
* Offering a very low risk entry
* Recently saw a retest of its 50 day line
* Held up really well while the general market and the Financial sector where taking a beating
Technicals:
Sector: Financial - Insurance Brokers
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.23
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.29
U/D Ratio: 1.25
Base Depth: 25.64%
Distance from breakout buy point: -8.82%
Volume 45.14% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price tries to break through the 170 level with higher than average volume and while the price is still close to its 50 day line
* You can wait for the break and close above 170 before entering as that would signal that it's ready to move higher
* If you're looking for a lower entry you may find one around the 167.55 area as that should hold as short term support
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 9.35% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 9.15% to 9.55% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 3.69% away from its 50 EMA