NZDJPY reacts to 50 EMA and might break strong resistance NWNZDJPY is one foot on the path to strong daily resistance (dark blue). It stopped there twice and it also respected the level in history. Let us see what it does. I would like a little bearish Monday opening to get a good price and kickstart the upwards move mid-through the day.
Pinbar makes it unlikely to get 50 EMA price, but on an intraday basis, a good long can be caught and perhaps even held for a few days. There is also 50x200 crossover, so I suppose crossover traders might be boarding and eventually push the price even through the blue zone.
50ma-200ma
SBSW & PLG breakout coming Two platinum/palladium miners that are set to catch up with the broader market rally.
SBSW: Above its VWAP from recent peak, VWAP from February peak and VWAP from March low. Also consolidates above 50 EMA which found support at the 200 EMA and is now pushing price higher. I have removed the 5 and 20 EMA in order to see the VWAPs but please add them to your own chart and you will see they are in a very bullish position.
PLG: Still has some work to do consolidating below the 200 EMA and VWAP from recent peak, while above the 50 EMA and VWAP from Feb peak/March low. I have picked the $1.70 level as the final resistance level. I am going to watch SBSW as it is technically closer to a breakout, and if the breakout occurs, PLG has a very high probability to move higher.
BTCUSD Weather Forecast; a Bearish rainy Memorial Day Weekend On the 4 hr chart, BTC has printed a Bear Flag or (ascending bearish wedge ), and also about to run into the converging 50MA & 200MA. It is testing the bottom of our 2.5 month long, ascending recovery channel, the RSI is showing us Bearish Divergence since about April 30th. We could easily retest 8200 and step down to 7700 & 7300.
BTCUSD; A Fork in the Road BTCUSD has come to form nice Bearish Wedge on the Daily Chart. We must be very close to a direction decision as we are now being 'pushed up against the wall' of the 50MA & the huge downtrend line of resistance at the same time, both of which we have basically bumped our 'noggin' on 5 out of the 8 last days...
Also in play, what could be considered the Left Shoulder and Head have formed, now we're possibly headed down to $5800 range support for the beginning formation of the Right Shoulder.
Volume is dwindling as well. All of this looks Bearish, but the market is so tricky these days with all that's happening in the world with Economics and Pandemic issues.
Either Bitcoin will bust through the 50MA and Downtrend line and ascend to the $8000 range / 200MA area or begin to descend to $5800 support.
What's your sentiment?
Likes & Comments appreciated,
Thanks,
-HP
RSI "DEATH CROSS" & "GOLDEN CROSS" during Pandemic VolatilityJust a quick idea that shows how, as the Covid-19 crisis worsened, the RSI "Death Cross" clearly indicated the huge drop off in price that was about to occur.
Conversely, despite record unemployment claims in the US, when the RSI "Golden Cross" recently occurred, the price was able to break through previous resistance.
EURUSD - Easy Pullback & Trend Continuation SetupHi Traders!
The market is in a strong uptrend.
As you can see, the market is in a healthy uptrend since 20th February.
From then (price was around 1.08000) the market started moving up.
After that the market made a retracement move.
It retraced from the first pik (1.11800) towards the support (1.11000).
Then the market moved up again and made the next higher high (1.12000).
The market even did a so called "Golden Cross" and this could be an important signal for many traders.
Now it is back on the support again.
We recommend to buy the market because of the strong uptrend.
Thanks and good luck :)!
Bitcoin - In the next 24 to 48 hoursAs traders what we want to know is if we have hit the bottom or if we are going up, or are we going to fall some more. On the post I did on the 22nd I told you we were going to fall in a matter of hours and we did. Check this out, there are 3 keep spots we need to keep an eye on to see if we are going up or down. I know the answer but I would like to hear from some of you. The chart above shows you the new battleground. If BTC goes and closes below either of those support lines in green that will show weakness and it is time to go down some more soon. If for the last few months we've done nothing but lower lows and lower highs what should your trade strategy be?
This is the next thing to keep an eye on:
If the yellow trendline 50MA goes under the white trendline 200MA (Which is almost a done deal) then we are going down.
This is the last place to keep an eye on:
If we close a candle under the green trendline that means we are going down as well.
So the specific question is this: Would you put money in right now?
THE TREND: Going Down a little more
THE OUTLOOK: Safe to buy a percentage of BTC wait a bit more to buy-in.
Bitcoin/ US Dollar 1D BitfinexFirst, acknowledgement to Trading Shot post (linked below) which influenced me on some of my 50/200 MA calculations and understanding (and hopes!):
Thank you Trading Shot
Factors I'm watching:
LTC as a leading indicator - which I've been doing for about 2 years.
Standard Fib ratios. .618 my favorite and coincides with red TA line (discussed below). I personally love it when the big players pierce the Fib lines for psychological reasons.
Basic TA lines - note the red support line - which is supportive of the previous BTC 200/50MA scenario.
10/20 Day MA correlation. Really weak right now. they run almost parallel - for some time now.
Note: I'm always long on BTC (since this time last year), but my chart, in its current form, supports the thesis of a dip (not 'crash') this summer. However, I will readily admit, that if BTC spikes, I'll be seeking to catch and buy in FOMO'sih. I'm talking small amounts, as, I'll want a bit more - just in case BTC breaks the massive resistance indicated by my grey shading.
My buy areas are green ovals. I always have discretion to not buy, based on Human Factors, news, gossip, FUD, etc. Those ovals are guides and visual reference points only.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 230)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart . It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison ]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time
Previous analysis / position: “If we breakdown $6,370 then it would confirm the bearish harami as well as the hanging man. If that were to happen I will be prepared with a small stop order set to short $6,369.” / Short USDT:USD’ from 0.968
Patterns: Descending triangle / bearish harami
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,410 | R: $6,454
BTCUSDSHORTS: Really started to look like they will break out of the triangle to the upside. Once volatility picks up so will volume and we should see unprecedented levels of short sellers.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Bullish (price above MA)
Medium term trend (4 week MA | 2 & 32 day MA’s): Bearish | Bearish
Long term trend ( 32 Week | 50 & 128 day): Bearish | Bearish
Overall trend: If daily closes below $6,438 then all will be bearish
Volume: Surprised volatility didn’t continue after the volume spike on the 15th. Now we are back to painfully low levels.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Harami inside a harami. Can we get a 3rd matryoshka doll?
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud acting as strong support at $6,424
TD’ Sequential: Weekly red 2 will fall below a red 1 at $6,086. Placing a stop order there could be a good idea
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,246 to $6,371 with 5 day look back
Price action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: +/- 0 | 1m: +2.95%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA acting as strong resistance
Trendline: Top of descending triangle ~/= $6,725
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Hanging around 50 on most TF’s. 4h is a little overbought
Stoch: Recrossing bearish on 12h, going for retest on daily after creating higher high
Summary: I am closely watching the red trendline on the USDT:USD’ 1 hour chart as well as prior historical support at 0.9642. As long as it stay below those areas then I do not feel very comfortable about holding a short on BTC’ or ETH’.
Furthermore I am strongly expecting the lower wick from October 15th’s candle to get re explored, similar to what followed October 2nd’s candle.
If it has another selloff then BTC’ and other cryptos should get another pump. If it stablizes then I will feel comfortable going back to my normal approach of 99% TA
Nevertheless, trading is about risk reward and properly managing positions. If the r:r is tilted too much in my favor then I will open a large position regardless of what is happening with Tether and I will use a market stop loss if need be.
I posted a chart earlier with a $35 target for ETH:USD and that is a prime example of something that is too favorable to pass up. In the mean time there is an incoming death cross on the 3D chart with the 50 and 200 MA’s. The first close below the 200 MA is what led to my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison . Only other time this happened was in October of 2014.
We have broken down from a bearflag & through a big support liThe old adam and eve neckline we broke up from before was holding very strong support after the bearflag breakdown but could only hold for so long before it gave way. Are next 3 big supports are 7.3k the 4hr 200ma(shown here in blue) the 1 day 50ma and the 7k psychological. The bearflag breakdown target could send us all the way to 6.9 or even upper 6.8k. However I am hopefully that either the 200 on the 4hr chart or the 50 on the 1 day chart will provide us our much needed bounce. if we break under 7.2k however then 6.8-6.9 becomes a real possibility.