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50ma

3 candle closes above the 4hr 50MA Buy/Sell LineIts been a very nice rebound thus far and as you can see on the 4 hour chart we now have 3 candle closes above the ever-important buy/sell line (50MA), renowned technical analyst Steve Primo has often said that once you have 5 closes above the buy sell line you are in a buyers market and 5 closes below puts you in a sellers market, so we only need 2 more closes above this line to be in a buyers market on the 4hr chart. Considering how the T-line(in yellow) has now come up to almost overlap with the Buy/Sell line as a double reinforced support I think the buy sell line maintaining it's support role is highly likely and that we will indeed see 5 closes above the buy sell line on the 4hr chart. Which should finally push us back above the current fib line resistance and likely flip its role from resistance to support as well. I think because of these factors, the bulls will continue their bull impulse up after this brief consolidation....I personally don't think any significant retracement will happen until the next foib line up (in blue) around the big psychological support of 8,000...I expect at that time we will get our first real retracement that isnt just sideways consolidation...that will be a great opportunity for us to see whether or not we will get a higher low...we just recently got our first higher high in awhile and need to confirm that the bulls have taken control from the bears by getting a follow up higher low on the enxt retrace...and then a higher high to go with it on the impulse after that to confirm we are fully back in bull mode....once we can do that, I anticipate the bull surge will be enough to reverse the death cross and trigger a golden cross which should put us into a mega bullish mode and hopefully get us back above the1day charts buy/sell line high enough to get 5 closes back above it and put us fully back in the bull market for the second quarter of 2018. This big bullish domino effect starts first though with us getting our 5th candle close above the 4hr charts buy sell line.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
7
Bull flag beats out bear flag; new higher high established.As you can see we have busted up out of the bull flag and thus also upward out of the bear flag as well...I have posted 2 price targets for a bull flag breakout one that considers the pole of the flg to be just one of the green candles a price point we've already reched...and then another prie point in case the entire bull flags pole was also the long green candle just before that as well. I'm glad to see we've finally gotten a candle above the 50MA buy sell line as well...if we can close 5 consecutive 4 hour candles above the 50MA(in orange) aka the buy sell line...then expect thigns to get very bullish very quick with a domino effect ensuing. We continue to trigger higher climbs the odds are great that we will be reversing the death cross and triggering what's known as the golden cross which would help make things mega bullish. so not only do we have the potential to climb higher just from the bull flag breakout but by breaking out of the bull flag we also broke out of the bigger bear flag which would have an even higher potential climb in store for the price action if that breakout is confirmed which I believe it will be. So for now I'm switching to long I will only switch back to neutral or short if on the enxt retracement we get a lower high or if when we climb back up from the retracement we get a lower low...to confirm the bulls are noe in control after we got this higher high..w.e need the confirmation of then a higher low on the retracement followed b a 2nd confirmation higher high...I'm confident we will get that....this is not financial advise however so you make up your own mind. Thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
My Limit buy triggered right before the recent upswing.Was able to ride the upward bounce off of the fib after it wicked below jsut enough to trigger my limit buy...I don't anticipate the bears are done yet though...especially since the upcoming 1day chart death cross is still seeming like an inevitability in the coming days. Now that I ahd a successful limit buy triggered I qwill likely put another top loss a few pips below where I originally limit bought back in ensuring that I only sshort again if it goes noticeably and reasonably lower than where wI just bought back in but not too much lower just enough to where a long wick wont cause me to miss the trend reversal. You all do as you see fit as this is not financial advice but as you can see on my chart my limit buy triggered precisely...however this bounce needs a ton of bull momentum to see any real sustainability. If not, and the death cross on the 1 day occurs we could plummet all the way as far down as the ascending grey trendline which I still am confident would provide serious support...however for now I think the biggest downside could be the grey trendline most likely somewhere around the $7200 region my new stop loss will probably be triggered $153 under where I triggered my limit buy. Do as you choose as this is not financial advice! Thanks for reading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
Stop Loss triggered 5 closes below 50MA Nothing to do but short...and maybe reassess when to go long again based on how price reacts at the blue fib line....not a bad idea to set a limit buy way below that, while keeping an eye on how far we dip below the psychological support of 8,000. THis could very well be the results of whales stop loss hunting. So be on the ookout for any sudden boosts of bull volume and momentum to signal a turn around but for now I would be shorting at least until the 161.80% retracement. The 5 closes below the 50MA was the biggest sign...just to be safe I wanted to wait until Iw as below the red line though so I didn't ave my stop loss triggered solely by stop loss hunting whales. It seems with dips like this the death cross on the 1 day chart is an inevitability which means more downside...best to short the market for a little bit and see where this takes us, while being careful to set a smart stop loss buy back in just below the original red stop loss signal just in case it recovers before you can buy back in at the low you want. Factoring in the upcoming death cross I think it will drop farther than the blue retracement line but we will see soon enough.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
We have closed under the buy/sell line on the 4 day.Now that we've closed 2 candles below the 50 MA it's looking like probability favors the short game over the long game. Usually we wait for 3 or 5 closes below the 50MA to confirm we are back in a sellers market first so this current 4hr candle is very important....if it closes below odds are good we have more downside to follow. A short at that time would not be a bad call...a more conservative approach would be to wait until the price dips and closes below the bottom hotpink trendline, or even after that below the lowest light pink fibline...if neither of those can hold support then more downside is very likely. Also all this recent downside make the possibility of the death cross on the 1 day chart that much more likely...if we continue to dip the 1day death cross will likely happen in the next few days. Which only means more downside...so for now probability favors the short side as does the idea....don't pull the short trigger until somewhere around 3-5 closes below the 50MA on the 4 hour though to be safe, uness you've already shorted when we started making lower highs/lower lows. If you did continue to stay short until we see a clear trend reversal.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
The 50MA Buy/Sell Line still acting as strong support!We plummeted and after we started to go below the 50% green fib line that was officially creating a new lower low/lower high which is often a signal to short. Had youd one so and follwoed it all the way down to the 50MA you would have come out quite a bit ahead. I would mark this idea as a short if it was being updated at that point...but now we have been already been caught once again by the strong support of the Buy/Sell line(50MA in orange). If we close the current 4 hour candle above that line I will be optimistic of a chance at continuing the upside if we close below it it could mean more downside so for now this idea will have to remain neutral, with if any bias being slightly toward a reversal back to the upside. What's interesting this time around is many altcoins actually did well while btc plummeted this go around which hasn't happened in a long while.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
50MA on 4 hour chart acting as very strong support; Ever since we confirmed the last bear flag breakout the price action was sent down and has tested the 50MA multiple times on the last couple candles....but has only wicked below it maintaining very strong support....however as you can see the projected drop target from the bear flag breakout has not yet been met....what's more we are now essentially forming another bear flag with the bottom trendline of the new bear flag being the 50MA(buy/sell line) It's very possible the 50MA may hold support and prevent us from further downside but the probability is higher that we will dip below it and drop to whatever the projected price drop target of the current bear flag before we completely rebound...possibly leading toe ven more downside....best to play it safe and see how this currently developing bear flag plays out though before making any big decisions....however there seems to be a lot of FUD in the news headlines these days which often gives you a heads up more downside is on the way as well as an impending death cross of the 50MA and 200MA on the day chart in the net few coming days...bot indicitave of more downside...probability favors a continued drop...but at least for now due to the strong support of the 50MA this idea will remain neutral....it will also remain not financial advice....thanks for reading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Bitcoin - Support Zones/Future DirectionSupport analysis of both, the previous parabolic move as well as the current slow decline, show areas of support aligning along with impending doom. Currently holding 0.382 Fibonacci, the area below is vulnerable up until the Trend line . At this point an expected rise from the Golden cross approaching within hours (200MA crossing below the 50MA, indicating short term trend upwards) on the 1hr chart along with the longer Weekly chart indicating doom with both the 50(MA) as well as the 100(MA) impending Death Cross (50MA crossing below the 200MA, indicating large waterfall drop, or couple days of trending downwards) The necessity that these cross-overs must occur before uptrend can be established is nothing new although the alignment/strength of both the 50(MA) and the 100(MA) cross-over within close proximity, along the 1hr Golden Cross reversing within this time period to another Death cross, could be a triple threat add pressure to trend downwards. Ichimoku cloud squeezing price range under $10,000 and seems it would take rally similar to last to enable support from this indicator, with volume stagnate, only rising in bursts, realistically 2 times lower then needed, this is currently not possible. RSI currently holding 40, small room with the golden cross approaching before being oversold. Would expect large rise in RSI and price to rebound after/during cross leading along trend line . MACD would need to see some price action to cross-over into positive rise, this could be possible if the Golden Cross plays out, could push price higher during this short few day period although the divergence appears to be slowing. Taking a monetary view of the market, USDT trading was very slowly being replaced with real USD, volume non-existent, FUD, the only "support" channel seems to be along the trend line . this would increase pressure on this support in such a weak and reactive market and only a sharp incline in price would allow Investors back in (Investors don't buy dips, they buy on the rise). Underlining the whole situation is trader's don't believe in the underlying technology (if anything only bitcoin -2.58% ), announcements are being held back until dust settles and constant FUD right at critical support levels. Although the technology hasn't changed from last year, the market has. It seems all indicators are at lowish levels in which a market with "legs" would jump on, but carnivorous nature of this risk built market would ensure lows are low and highs are high. Short term trade, wait for the indicators to mature and align with others, a rise should be expected within the Golden Cross up until the Death Cross comes into play (50MA expected 23rd March), Alt coin funds will be indicator of reversal, flowing heavily into tether (USDT) and BTC at this stage. One indicator that I don't have access to is if large enough funds have a Fake-out planned...and can pull it off...and hit stop losses. A correction would still occur, long term hold your ground, the market will survive. BTC -2.62% is seeing some tough times , so I should write this: ***Education Purposes only***
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CerealTrader
Breakout is confirmed 50 SMA now acting as support!Exciting to see we have confirmed the breakout of the wedge....wedge breakouts tend to have very reliable projected target prices and this one goes all the way to $10335. I have updated my chart to show which fib lines, trendlines, and moving averages can act as support or resistance along the way. The only EMA I have on the chart currently is the T-Line...simply because the Simple moving averages have been acting much more like support/resistance lately than the eponential moving averages have....if that changes I will certainly include any pertinent EMAs on my chart. For now we can see that what was strong resistance at the 50MA (aka the buy sell line) has now flipped to support. This is huge because if we can continue to ahve the 50 MA act as support for 4 more 4 hr candle closes that will mean we are back in a buyers market. Considering the reliability of wedge patterns achieving their breakout targets I'd say that is a high probability, but still something to keep an eye on if for some reason it dips back below it. the current resistance is a previous green fib line as you can see. It bounced down off it and then confirmed the 50MA as support after bouncing up off the 50MA a very very good sign. I'd say keep an eye on the 50MA to make sure it maintains support...if so I have a feeling the green fib line will be resistance for a very temporary amount of time and we will be back in the buyers market soon....suggesting that the second quarter of this year will hopefully be a bullish one.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail