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50retracement

TFC in the "Valley of Risk"Preface and Disclaimer: I have a long term stake in Truist Financial Corp NYSE:TFC :( I wondered "why" Truist, company I have held for a very long time (when it was BB&T) would have been caught up in this contagion of small bank risk fears. An article by Seeking Alpha sheds some light on it: seekingalpha.com TL;DR, over the weekend analysis dug into their books and found that Truist was exposed to some of the same risk factors, namely low yield securities, as Silicon Valley Bank NASDAQ:SIVB . It is not existential risk, as Truist has a much better Deposit ratio than SVB, but it may impact the bank's profitability in the future. This fiasco is an example of why I do not assume bankers, Wall Street analysts, or "whales" operate at some vastly greater intelligence. In hindsight... buying up tons of low yield treasuries does not seem risky. But once something happened... suddenly EVERYONE realizes how risky it actually is and now EVERYONE is paying attention. There are thousands of people earning high 6 figs to look at and data crunch these numbers every day for months and only NOW realize they have a systemic risk problem. In my own analysis which I study and try to apply dispassionately I too can look back in hindsight at the price action of NYSE:TFC and see a clear warning sign I missed. In the summer of 2022 TFC was hovering around the 50% Retracement Level support from the COVID low to All Time High. I study and trade this key level every day on every timeframe. It's a technical analysis that I have learned to trust. By October 2022 price had clearly violated and broken the level as a part of the broader market selloff. This bearish trend that persisted through 2022 was not secular to TFC or banking. What it should demonstrate though is a secular lack strength to HOLD its own trend despite market conditions. Often price will hesitate and/or recapture said level... consolidating around it. The damage to the bullish trend though is already done and if one ignores these warnings the position is in danger of falling into what I call "The Valley of Risk" where there are no more supports until the last major low (The COVID low) and sometimes even beyond. That is where TFC has fallen today on this recent FUD. I still believe that TFC is a strong bank. This move down has put it into some spectacular dividend yield territory (6.45% as of writing). For a pure dividend play for me it is a hold. But as a technical trader I put this in my catalog of examples of how a bullish trend gives ample warning of failure before it truly drops.
NYSE:TFCLong
by norok
3
I cannot cannot short this...Today's CPI data (down to 5.0% from 6.0% YoY) created interesting and actionable price action this morning... more on my thoughts about it later. Technically the data release created a Spike Alert by punching through the pre-market high and then closing back inside it before the cash open. This is happening within two important contexts: A double top for the price action of April's highs The 4155.25 level which is the most important level of 2023 4155.25 is the 50% Retracement for the entire 2022 bear market. This is THE level which the S&P 500 has been holding all year and stubbornly refusing to break higher. The first time it was hit was the December 2022 CPI data. That signaled the December bear trend to yet another key 50% Support. The next time was the top of the January 2023 rally that got everyone excited. Following the recent February/March malaise price is once again testing this level. The CPI data release has very much driven the highs and low (October CPI being the major bottom) for the last many months. Inflation, and how the Fed handles it, has driven this current era of the stock market (and all risk assets). While the news is that inflation is coming down it is still well above the Fed's target 2.0% rate. There is no guarantee or sign that the Fed will change its mind. Yesterday I sat in on a presentation that juxtaposed the current GDP numbers (which have been recently positive) with the LEI (Leading Indicators) which are sending up a recession signal. I am ALWAYS hesitant to take FUD into account in my analysis. However, the signal is the signal. The trade of this post is based upon a confluence of four factors (news event, spike, double top, 50% Retracement). My rules state that I must trade this... win or lose. The LEI is also a signal that has a high probability of efficacy. It should also be heeded.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
39
Bitcoin Upcoming Levels of ResistanceThis is a followup to my Bullish trades on Bitcoin since 2023 (see links below). I highly suggest you check them out to see how to find opportunity before it late into the move. So now it is time to start marking off Resistance Levels as this bullish move matures. The reasons: This is still a crypto winter and this is a bear market rally. Crypto trading platforms are starting to send unsolicited push notifications to remind people that Bitcoin is going up! Crypto social medias are busy intensifying Ron Paul "It's Happening" memes regarding the failure of 2 banks = collapse of US Dollar. There are three major levels where I will look for this rally to stall and possibly reverse. 32k : This is the closest and most probable level. It is respect of the lows of summer 2021 and importantly the 50% Retracement Resistance of the March 2022 high to the current Low of this Bear market. 36.5k : This is the inflection point where Bitcoin tried to hold the bullish trend in January 2022 and the 50% Retracement of the entire March 2020 - All Time High move. 42k : This is the 50% Retracement Resistance of the whole bear market move. Using Ichimoku theory: This is still a bear market pullback because price is well below the Ichimoku cloud signifying a bear trend. Price does not become bullish until it has cleared the entire Weekly cloud. What this move has done though is get Bitcoin into the Weekly cloud which is the first step from going to full on Bearish, as it has been since May 2022, to bullish which would not happen until time and the highest Resistance (42k) has been passed.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by norok
1
Bitcoin at Critical Retracement SupportBitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has pulled back to the Major 50% Retracement of the January rally at 20360. This is a key Support level that must hold to continue the bullish trend. Watch how price behaves at this level. If price holds the level (closes today above) and remains above then the bull case remains intact. If price closes below the level for 2 or more days the rally is over. Using Ichomoku analysis the bullish trend is not yet broken as price has pulled back to the bottom of the cloud but not yet broken through. This is a followup to the trend breakout that began January 12th as per my last post using Ichimoku to define the breakout.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by norok
1
Tesla Head and Shoulders at ResistanceThe month of January saw a huge RIP on Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA lifted by broad stock market bullishness and Artificial Intelligence buzz with the launch of ChatGPT (Tesla is widely considered an AI company rather than just a car company). February saw this bull trend stall at major Weekly 50% Retracement Resistance (see below) at 213. Price has tested and respected this level in the past and I had been waiting for the trend to hit it. I entered my short on 2/9 (being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable). Now as the month of price action has continued it seems to have setup a Head and Shoulders pattern. I noticed on 2/13 some buzz on social media the first significant pullback to the trend created. Many that had missed out on the January action began to FOMO in. This short term rally pushed price to the resistance on 2/15 and briefly broke it intraday on 2/16. However, price closed the Daily and Weekly bars below the major Resistance to confirm that it held. Now this morning I received an alert for a Bearish Spike at the open. This spike high could be the creation of the Right Shoulder of the pattern. The 213 Level is important because it is the 50% Retracement of the entire 2019 Low to 2021 All Time High. Price respected this level in summer of 2022; held it, reversed bullish off it, but failed to reach and make a new All Time High. Once it broke the level in November 2022 Tesla entered the "Valley of Risk". Now price has come back to test it from the underside as Resistance and so far the price action is showing signs of respect. Additionally, the Bearish trend that began in September 2022 and ended with the start of the January 2023 rally has its own 50% Retracement right around this area to match.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by norok
2
CNC At Important LevelCentene NYSE:CNC fired off a signal on this morning's open at a "50 in 50" level. The most important level is the COVID Low to All Time High 50% Retracement which for the last few weeks price has been testing. This is an important multi-year level that the stock price needs to hold to continue to retest the all time high. To reduce the initial risk on this trade I will drill down to the swing trading timeframe price action. Here we see the last few weeks with an overshoot of the support, price recapture the major 50% level, and now do a short term 50% Retracement around that level. Holding within this range sets up for a long term bullish move off the Supports.
NYSE:CNCLong
by norok
1
Solid Level for AMZNI have been stalking NASDAQ:AMZN share prices for months now watching as it retraced from the All Time High down to a full 50% Retracement from the All Time Low. This is a pretty epic pullback level that took decades to create. The 6 month downtrend from 146 > 81 created its own 50% Retracement at 114 as Resistance. February earnings popped to this level and confirmed it. As the January bull run fades AMZN comes back again to test the broader level. Even as we drill lower to the intraday timeframe we can see the 50% Retracements begin to setup. The volatility around today's FOMC minutes shows respect for the level. This sets up a low risk opportunity to play the decadal Support.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by norok
26
HSIC Bounces Resistance/SupportThis morning, the first trading day of 2023, I ran my S&P 500 spike scan like every morning. The spikes were skewed heavily to the bearish side with 99 Bearish Spikes and only 1 Bullish Spike. That spike was HSIC NASDAQ:HSIC . I like the context of this price action happening at the 50% Retracement of the bear move from the All Time High down to the October Low. Price recaptured and broke above the 78.72 Retracement Level and has now pulled back to test it as Support. The 30m timeframe on Tradingview does not show the spike but the low of this morning's open was 78.70. This low can define the low risk for a 30 minute timeframe entry to play the broader move on the Daily timeframe to retest the ATH.
NASDAQ:HSICLong
by norok
1
Bitcoin Bullish Says Ichimoku!With the close the UTC Time Daily bar Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has officially entered a bullish trend. The current price has closed above the 50% Retracement from the FTX collapse dip. What defines this signal is when price closes above the Daily Ichimoku cloud while the Lagging Span (Momentum/Chikou) is also outside the cloud. This is the first time since March 2022 that this signal based upon Ichimoku has fired. The signal in March turned out to be a false breakout and there was more bearishness to go. The inverse signal for a bearish trend to being was accurate back in December 2021. This price action signal was fundamentally triggered by the US Non-Farm Payrolls Jobs report which preceded the Fed's campaign to raise interest rates ultimately tanking the price of all risk assets including Bitcoin. Today's bull signal is based upon optimism that inflation is coming back to normal and the Fed will not be forced to raise rates as aggressively in 2023 as it did in 2022.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by norok
7
PSA Win Looking Good for HigherI carved out a win today on NYSE:PSA to start a trend off the Weekly 50% Level. This has a chance to run based on the technical setup as well as a possible secular bull trend if one believes people will need to store their stuff into a housing crunch. The initial trade began on a 30 minute timeframe spike (which unfortunately was not caught on Tradingview data). With a stop just below the spike low of 1/19/23 I was able to play the position to a conservative high retest. Now I am keeping on shares as runners. Incidentally... PSA has held a major 50% pullback before on the COVID low. The entry point now is the 2016 high of that trend that created said pullback. This is a great level to take long.
NYSE:PSALong
by norok
LMT PullbackI sold off some of my long term LMT holdings last week before EOY to capture some capital gains. LMT was a big winner of 2022 up over 37% and price was stalling at the All Time High. This morning I received an alert for an opening price spike that created a critical low at 469.35. This is not a spike I would take as a reversal to go long. Rather, I am watching to see if price breaks this low to signal a breakout short. If the short breakout triggers I would look for a pullback to the 50% Retracement of the last earnings rally around 445.
NYSE:LMTShort
by norok
Market Top on CPI News - Santa might not come this yearThe price action of 2022 has been dominated by inflation related news. The start of the recent rally began with the October CPI print where an expected 8.3% came in at an actual 8.2%. This was a slight change but the first sign that inflation may have peaked and thus the Fed might pivot from their interest rate hikes. The market has loathed higher interest rates all year. Even if one did not know the details of the news the action of price was enough to see the signal of a rally. Price performed a false breakout to the downside (A Bullish Spike) seen on that October 13th Daily bar that kissed the 50% Retracement of the entire COVID Rally as seen on the Weekly chart below: This week yet another CPI news event triggered a Bearish Spike at the 50% of entire bear move from the ATH down to that October low. This in itself is a sign that the market will be bearish through the end of the year and into 2023. Additionally, the inverse relationship of the VIX TVC:VIX gives another clue that the market has turned. VIX for the third time this year has made a turn at the key Support of 20 which in both March and August signaled the highs for that period: I would like to believe in the Santa Claus rally for 2022 but the technical signs point to coal in equity stockings...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
Stock Market Gives Up The RallyToday's price action looks to close the Day and Week below the key level of 12400 on the Nasdaq CME_MINI:NQ1! which is the line in the sand 50% Retracement of the Summer 2022 Rally. The rally topped out mid-August (see post below). Today's intraday price action showed a potential rally to recapture the level only to turn and reverse thus confirming the level as Support Turned Resistance. A retest of the earlier months' lows is now a high probability.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by norok
1
UPS Post Earnings PullbackNYSE:UPS Triggered a spike alert this morning which is happening at the 50% Retracement of the Post Earnings Rally. (see below for Daily higher timeframe context) These are the real "earnings plays" that can yield positive returns rather than trying to buy a guess on the day before. Trying to buy or sell the day before earnings is a guess but very often earnings cycles create these setups weeks after a move has occurred with a much higher probability than a 50/50 bet.
NYSE:UPSLong
by norok
JP Morgan (JPM) Post Earnings PullbackFor certain stocks I have Spike alerts setup on multiple timeframes to find opportunity. Today a Spike Alert triggered on the 2 Hour Swing Timeframe for NYSE:JPM . Where this spike in the opening morning price is occurring is at the 50% Pullback to the post Earnings rally. I was able to put on a position at the 50% proper this afternoon. This sets up a very low risk entry to play a move back to retest to highs of the post-earnings rally and beyond.
NYSE:JPMLong
by norok
3
Double Top Morning "Counteryeet" (Day Trading/Higher Timeframe)This details my newly coined setup The Counteryeet :D This morning my community and I were trading CME_MINI:ES1! futures on the 1 minute timeframe in line with the context of the broader higher timeframe price action. For context, right now on the Daily the stock market is in a bearish trend. Price pulled back to an Ichimoku Kijun Sen which represents the 50% Retracement from the June downward move. The failure to close above this key Resistance suggests in itself that the bear trend is not yet broken: The opening price action within the first 30 minutes gave us a "Yeet" up to the overnight 4:00am high on the 30 minute timeframe which sets up the potential double top: The 1 minute timeframe Yeet stalled out and could not confirm a second bar closing above the key 30 minute level. This was the first bearish sign. Confirmation that the major high is holding comes with the 9:41 bar closing below the Tenkan Sen (TS/Red Line/Trigger line) showing signs of a failed breakout: One could have played the initial pullback to the Trigger Line for entry but I waited for one more sign of confirmation in the form of a closing bar below the Reaction Low: The entry is then made on the pullback to the Trigger Line. A stop should comfortable clear the Major High and the target for a proper 3 to 1 Reward/Risk Ratio takes price down to where the morning began: With patience the Major High was never breached and price reached the initial trade target: The beauty of this trade is that it sets up a very LOW RISK entry to play the Higher Timeframe 30 minute Double Top as well as the Daily Trend Pullback. Keeping the initial stop and allowing the winner to run could yield a 15 to 1 ratio down to the 50% Retracement of the 30 minute bullish trend: This could even go further to retest the low on the Daily: Join me on links below to hang out as we do these live!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
4
Silver About To Break SupportSilver futures COMEX:SI1! are right now holding a key Retracement level that aligns with the 2016 Major High around 21.00. This represents price holding support after failing many attempts to reach and break the highs around 30.00. Failing to hold and breaking this support would likely continue the bearish trend down into the teens prices below 19.90. Given that the last attempt to reach 30.00 fell short I put the probability high that such a Support break is coming.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by norok
2