Strategy, Support, Resistance - 4/24/2022This week we watch for a potential reversal of the selloff in stocks based on VIX reaching a key Resistance. The lows of the year may be tested still. Cryptocurrency still fails to gain bullish momentum as Bitcoin and Ethereum give up supports from the recent rally. Oil may get a bid this week back up to the top of the recent range. Gold and Silver continue to disappoint. BIG EARNINGS coming up this week in Google and Amazon and they have the eyes of the whole market upon them!
50retracement
Fedex Long off RetracementFedex NYSE:FDX is the latest stock on my radar to do a 50% Retracement from the COVID low to All Time High at 204.30. This morning there was a price volatility spike on the 30 minute timeframe (see below) to trigger attention to the setup. I am going to give it a wide berth to play the weekly level but start the position on today's down day.
Bank of America Spike on EarningBank of America stock NYSE:BAC had a swing trading Spike on earnings today (see below). The spike on earnings is a catalyst I like to look for as a potential risk defined long BUT it is occuring within price action at no clear prior support level. The broad COVID > High 50% Retracement is down at 34. It will still be worth watching today's Daily close to see if price recovers the March low for a potential failed bearish breakout. Sitting and watching for now.
Entered Long ETHBTCEntered an exploratory long inside the recent consolidation of the Ethereum/Bitcoin cross. This trade expresses my thesis that Ethereum is becoming the dominant coin in the cryptocurrency space and should continue the recent trend of appreciating against Bitcoin. BITFINEX:ETHBTC has recently been caught between two major Retracement levels and this mid-consolidation trade is putting risk on that the consolidation will break to the upside. Lower timeframe setup and signal below:
TGT Beautiful Holds... LOOK for these in 2022Beautiful holds (THREE TIMES) on TGT level... Post-earnings 50% Pullback.
These will be the opportunities to look for in 2022 ... when the market is slowly bullish you have to find opportunity in individual stocks around earnings!
Any by "around earnings" NOT the day before!!! 😠 It means getting in weeks prior for runups and weeks after for pullbacks 👍
Earnings season Q2 is fast approaching now... draw your levels and set your alerts!
"Facebook Can't Go Lower" Part 3Back in February Facebook/Meta NASDAQ:FB dropped over -20% on earnings. This was crazy for such a big profile, mega-cap company and many investors though (and said) "Facebook can't possibly go lower" and used this justification to buy right on the drop. From a technical standpoint that drop blew past support and with so many people saying "Facebook can't go lower" my trader senses told me one thing... it WILL go lower. That is why I made that line into a meme at the time.
Now, after many new lows and 68 days of trading after the dump a technical setup has formed that I actually like. I don't know the future but at this point you have a defined bullish trend of buying to key off that has pulled back to a 50% Retracement. From this price action a trader can size their position and risk accordingly. This is something that was NOT possible if someone just bought on the dump alone.
It was entirely possible that Facebook could have gone lower and lower. Fortunately and unfortunately it did not. Fortunately, as many investors are surely glad. Unfortunately, because returning to breakeven and then profit fails to leave the impression on those that jumped the trade without patience.
The Lesson here is simple: Wait for price action to provide a setup. Even if it takes months.
Is It Time to Look at Electric Vehicle Stocks?Way back in ancient market history; 2020 and 2021, there was a great clamoring for the latest and greatest prospect of human technological achievement... Electric Vehicle companies! Billions of retail dollars were thrown in a frenzy into speculative bets about "the future of travel". Well, we come to today and investors are relatively quiet compared to the old days. Why is that? Why are investors less enthusiastic about this future growth prospect now, at cheaper price, than they were at much higher valuations? That has everything to do with market psychology and in this video I take a moment to talk about that because I want traders and investors to start THINKING DIFFERENTLY when it comes to these opportunities. There are also some EV stock opportunities happening now in Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA , NIO NYSE:NIO , and Ford NYSE:F that I want my followers to be aware of.
NIO Showing Signs of ReversalNIO stock NYSE:NIO , another 2020-2021 EV stock darling that has fallen from grace, came down on March 15th, 2022 to test its IPO day high of 13.80. Price has since rebounded from this level showing signs of respect for it as support. This week that rally has pulled back to respect the 50% Retracement of the reaction. Resistance is clear at the 50% Retracement of the 2020 rally at 34.13. Taking a long trade up to that level as a target, with a stop below the recent dip, poses a good reward/risk.
I am noticing a potential distinct trend in EV related stocks showing signs of recovery following the "Pandemic Round Trip"
Palantir pullbackPalantir NYSE:PLTR has performed a pullback from the recent rally. This came to my attention from a spike alert and it is happening at a 50% Retracement. This is a followup to my initial entry on March 15, 2022 when no one was talking about Palantir stock anymore (see below). This time in addition to the options position is purchased shares to hold for the long run.
TLT ReversalNASDAQ:TLT is showing signs of reversal with a reaction off the low of March 25th. Today's catalyst of dividend payouts made it open right at the 50% Retracement Level. If price holds this level a good Risk/Reward trade would take price back to 141 which is the 50% Retracement of the last few months' down trend.
How I Trade Support and ResistanceIn this video made for Best of Us Investors I talk about my most fundamental trading component; trading and investing off Support and Resistance Levels. I also talk about how I combine this with my other fundamental component of 50% Retracement Levels. We look at live examples of NYSE:ZIM and NYSE:KO and look back in history for case studies of NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:AMZN , and NASDAQ:TSLA to see just how powerful this tool can be for high probability, low drawdown, profitable trades and investment entries!
The Nasdaq just did THIS - Pullback ComingThe stock market rally is stalling out today and the Nasdaq has hit a key Resistance. Does this mean the end of the recent rally? Is the market heading for a crash? I'm going to look objectively at price action and the VIX to explain my thesis as to why a new All Time High for 2022 is likely.
Twitter ToppingCatching up on alerts from Friday last week when NYSE:TWTR signaled a spike. I like a stop loss above the recent short term consolidation with a bearish trade back down to the rally's 50% Retracement Level. Earnings are 4/28/22 and IV has returned to normal. I like either a short shares trade or a long Put to play this rally ending and price retracing to 36 over the next few weeks.
Nasdaq Never Stopped OutThe Nasdaq CME_MINI:NQ1! got close to triggering the stop loss which was below the Russian invasion low of 2/24/2022 but remained bullish. Now this rally has brought it up this week to the 50% Retracement of the full Q1 correction. This week will be an interesting test to see if it will break the 50% Retracement as the S&P 500 already has.
Market at KEY Resistance TodayThere are signs the recent rally may be stalling. The S&P 500 Index (measured by futures CME_MINI:ES1! ) has retraced to the 50% of the ATH down to the 2/24/22 Ukraine invasion low. This morning there was a spike on the open to give confidence that this is in fact a resistance (see below).
Sentiment wise I am taking these price action signals as confirmation this is Resistance. This price action sets up a short trade with a stop loss above this morning's high and a target at the 50% of the recent rally to around 4300.
It is well within the character of the market over the last 3 months that it could come back to retest the FOMC levels.
Tesla at Key ResistanceNASDAQ:TSLA has returned to the 900 level which was the December Long trade (see link below) off the former All Time High and 50% Retracement of the 2021 bull trend. It breached the level during the recent stock market/growth correction and it MUST conquer it to go higher. Keep eyes on the price action at this level that it may turn into confirmed Resistance.