3.5% Decline on The Dow Jones 30 But Is This Unusual?Looking at the trend structure over the last 8 months, we can see a pattern play out.
Since April, pullbacks of between 3.5% and 7% have been part and parcel of the Dow Jones’s trend structure. (highlighted in red)
The current pullback of 3.5% falls within this range.
Note also how our trend filter remains mostly green and grey, with speckles of red, since April, in line with the long-term bull trend.
The index has now fallen to the d50sma (orange line), where we want to see it find support, bounce, break out and continue its climb to 50,000, as it has done since April.
The Dow Jones is also a good example of how trend structures can change despite no change in direction.
October to March saw a much faster trend, using the d20sma (blue line) as support, eventually breaking through in April and leading to a change in trend structure.
The Dow Jones is currently lagging behind the Nasdaq 100, which is setting record highs above 20,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500, which has settled into a mini consolidation above the 6000 level.
We ideally want to see Santa deliver in the final 2 weeks of December.
However, if the indices and stocks don't show new trend continuations through the rest of 2024, we want them to hold within consolidation, which will act a bases for trends in the New Year.
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50sma
ARK Innovation Support Area to Watch for BounceHi Guys! This is a Technical Analysis on ARK Innovations ETF (ARKK) on the 1 Week Timeframe.
Jumping right in:
Our current Price action is currently bouncing off a Confluence of SUPPORT Test
We tested this Confluence of Support area the prior 2 weeks.
The Confluence involves:
1. 50 SMA
2. Support Line of the Uptrend Channel
This would make an area to go LONG.
We are currently in the process of testing RESISTANCE from 21 EMA
Since this is one the 1 Week timeframe, we need to observe how this weeks candle interacts with the 21 EMA.
If we can close ABOVE, at the end of the week. That would be a good sign.
NOTE: If we can confirm SUPPORT on 21 EMA, this is a bullish sign. Since UPTRENDS are associated with being ABOVE the 21 EMA
It would hint at or strengthen the probability we move towards the Horizontal "Resistance Line" Above in Red.
This would also be an area to TAKE PROFIT.
BUT my main focus for ARKK would be to BREAK Above and CONFIRM Support over the MAJOR Resistance Line in Orange.
Once we do that, we have CHANGED our MAJOR TREND.
Though we have a long ways to go, keep in mind that when this happens, itll be a CRUCIAL AREA to watch.
Since we havent had 3 touch points, we could be rejected which could make it a short play also.
Now since i believe we must always be prepared. Lets look at the downside, if we can't maintain this current SUPPORT area.
My first downside target would be the line titled "Support Line#1
My 2nd downside target would be the line titled "Support Line#2
To find more evidence of whats to come, i look at the current indicators placed.
STOCH RSI, is currently BELOW the 20 level. A BULLISH CROSS, where Blue line is above Orange ABOVE the 20 elvel, would indicate Bullish momentum coming in. This would help push prices towards Resistance Line.
Notice also RSI, particularly the Black line. We were for a short time, below this line but currently attempting to move back ABOVE. If we can maintain SUPPORT on this, our trend would be intacted. Which would support UPTREND.
Finally the MACD, we need to watch this one closely. We have crossed BEARISH. We need to see a Bullish Cross and maintain staying ABOVE the 0 level. If we do this, i can eventually see ARKK move towards the "MAJOR Resistance line".
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on ARKK in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy
Buy on dip at 50DMA in Nikkei Japanese index Nikkei 225 (NI225) is in a nice bull run since Uncle Warren loaded up on the cheap Japanese equities.
The index made a top at 33770 and has been consolidating since then for the last few weeks. Recently the index made a triple bounce at the 50 day simple moving average with the last push happening on the day of the BoJ MPC meeting decision.
The price action on the index is nicely bullish and seems to be heading toward previous highs of 33770.
AVAX double bottom, breakout points and 50 day SMAI'm noticing this beautiful double bottom with handle on AVAX so I'm picking several points to prove my analysis. One the price continues to move up out of this handle. Two the price moves above the left side of the W. Three the price moves above the right side of the W. Four, if the price does fall down to the 50 day SMA as a test of support, it bounces off that support and moves higher.
High probablity breakout in BPCLChart has created higher lows formation with flat level of resistance which has multiple touches. Also price has taken support on 50 SMA and created a narrow range.
There is high probablity of bullish breakout on chart.
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I am publishing technical analysis on tradingview for educational purpose. You can visit on my profile on tradingview app to learn and understand price action and chart analysis.
DENT golden cross.I think I've been looking at DENT from the wrong perspective. In the longer time-frames I can see how DENT did a golden cross in the daily chart. Last time it did that DENT went up almost 100x since the signal.
Don't get too caught up in the lower time-frames, the price is way too unpredictable there, I think.
But what do you guys think? Opinions?
AUDCAD LongOANDA:AUDCAD
Currently we are looking for a long trade reason.
1.Price has broken out of daily descending trendline and playing below bullish corrective trendline.
2.The price has also reached fibo golden Zone between 61.8% and 50%.
3.Once the MACD turns positive and the price move above 50sma we go long.
Risk management is key.
FB pullback to the 50sma again... Buying the dipFacebook has tested the 50sma at least 4 times since March 2021.
Transposing the past trends from the 50sma to today's action we get several targets for taking partial profits.
OBV is still in a supportive uptrend, however, RSI has reached its worst level since mid-March at 43.
Very clear opportunity to enter a position now around the 50sma. If the price stays above the last low on August 19th around $351, we are still making higher highs and higher lows.
BTC/USD to fall lower and maybe bounce off the 50 DMA or necklinPrices are approaching the 50 DMA, which historically has provided suport to the price. Furthermore the 50 DMA is also converging with the neckline to add further support to this level being a suport level for the price. Additionally the RSI also has found support at the level it would reach when the price reached the 50 DMA. This sets up the following: prices will continue to fall to the 51k-49.75k level with would be a support zone.
Tesla Daily Bullish FlagHey everyone! Tesla stock has a bullish flag pattern on the daily! Right now it is at the bottom of the flag at around $800. Price should eventually break to the upside at the top of the pattern. As long as this pattern goes through this should be an easy play! If it breaks through the bottom for some reason after too much consolidation we may see it go down to hit the 50SMA. Just my thoughts, hope you enjoy the breakdown!
Low Risk Weekly DIA Credit Spread (5% gain on capital invested)I'm looking to enter a Put Credit Spread on DIA with the goal of collecting $5-$6 worth of credit per contact with a $1.5 wide spread. I'll be holding till DOE with the intention of growing capital invested by a minimum of 5% for the week.
-Current price is: $308
-Credit spread sell strike: $290
-Current price to sell strick: 6.2%
-Is price trading above 50 day SMA?: Yes
-Is price trading above 200 day SMA?: Yes
-Percent OTM if held to DOE upon entering, is: 92% - 94% of being OTM if held to DOE
-Technical analysis: DIA is trading above 50 and 200 day SMA which signals that we are in an uptrend. Our sell strick has been placed below .382 (292.5) fib retracement level. This price zone has held as support in the past I'm looking for it to hold again this week.
Let me know what you think. Have a nice day.
rising wedge broken NZDJPY developped and broke a rising wedge, now the price is in a compression mode (red rectangle), it tried to push down last monday but failed, pay attention to the 50 sma in h4 chart, as soon as the price breaks it and closes below it, you can consider to open a sell position with the green zone as a target (around 72.00 could be a nice take profit because there the 50-day ma lies); a daily close above 74.00 will be seen as a real breaout and you will close in loss your trade.
I hope you enjoy your trading!
bye francesco
The 50 Moving Average - The best Indicator?It is clear why so many traders use the 50 period moving average, just one look at this chart shows how useful the indicator is. Used by traders as a dynamic level of support or resistance, the 50 moving average takes the last 50 candles / bars, and shows the average closing price of those 50 periods. You can see how the EURJPY has respected it as both a support and resistance, and often when price breaks through it in one direction it will retrace to retest the moving average.
We recommend you learn more about both the simple moving average and the exponential moving average (weighted to favour recent data).
50 SMA crosses 200 SMA #HXLIn this chart I have outlined the point in which the 50 SMA is crossing the 200 SMA (to the upside) this usually indicates an uptrend. Using that to my advantage I have also found a gap fill in the chart that could be a short term trade. I would expect some sort of consolidation at around the gap fill area and should it therefore continue past the gap fill the next resistance is also shown.
I will be keeping an eye on this to use on my spreadbet account.