BTCUSD: Time for a correctionOutlook for the remainder of the year. The ETF inflows have generally remained positive at new ATH levels, while volume remains low and price remains flat. This suggests considerable distribution from OTC sellers, namely longer-term holders, per HODL waves analysis.
It's been 3 months since breaking ATH in March, with price unable to move higher. The consolidation at higher levels remains bullish until $60K is broken to the downside (foodgates moment), which would confirm the current range ($60K-70K) as longer-term distribution, rather than accumulation.
First stop will likely be a re-test of the 50 Week MA around $50K after the floodgates for selling opens below $60K. With relatively low accumulation volume, I'm not expecting it to hold as support, but instead return to the 200 Week MA around $40K, likely after a re-test of previous support in order to confirm it as new resistance (around $60K). The 20 Week MA is currently around $63K, so below this level, there will already likely be an increase in selling pressure.
The Weekly RSI is otherwise facing rejection from overbought levels >70, similar to late 2021 (minus the strong bearish divergence back then). The culmination of breaking the 20 WMA and confirming RSI rejection by returning to $60K, would be the catalyst for the break of support. As also noted (N.B.) the Mid Pi Cycle Top occurred in march, around $68K-$70K, with price unable to maintain the momentum above this rising MA multiplier, unlike in December 2020 at $21K.(1) The post-halving "Miner Capitulation" has also been signalled by Hash Ribbons indicator, not so dissimilar to summer 2020 that encouraged consolidation and a miner correction.(2)
I'm not particularly expecting Path B to play out, unless there is a catalyst for a more full-blown capitulation, leading to a 65% haircut in price. Examples include ETF holders getting cold feet leading to panic as price goes below opening ETF prices , or otherwise some negative regulatory news. A -45% move down to $40K should otherwise be more then sufficient to build up momentum for a 2025 bull market reaching $100K+. Should price reach GETTEX:25K to $30K levels (path B), there could be a "delay" within the usual cycle, with higher parabolic prices nearer to $200K. After the 3x from 2017 to 2021 ATH, 2x seems reasonable in 2025 however ~$138K.
(1) www.lookintobitcoin.com
(2) capriole.com
50wma
Bitcoin: A New HopeBitcoin broke out downwards through 42k. It looks like daily close will be below the 200d MA so right now I'm looking at the next heavy support between 30-35k and also at the 50W ma .
It has been a rough week but this could be very bullish news. The hashribbon is very close to flashing BUY . Last time this happend we had a big price increasement so I will wait for this to happen.