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TITAN - 5G - Lumen Tech. $LUMN - The 4th Industrial RevolutionI am ultra bullish on Smart cities, AI, edge computing, 5G/6G telecommunications, cybersecurity and AR/VR. Lumen Technologies (CenturyLink) seems to be a sleeping giant that checks all those boxes. Lumen is facing a similar situation as Nokia and Blackberry as value company which is about to enter a second growth cycle, and like Palantir Technologies, it is facing a situation of massive short selling pressure during institutional accumulation. The ruthless manipulation after earnings beat signals to me how bullish institutions are on the company, and the overwhelming (unreasonable) bear sentiment signals that the shakeout is upon us. FA: Highlights: "Lumen Technologies is the only company to win Frost & Sullivan's prestigious 2021 Global New Product Innovation Award". Who are they? - "Lumen brings together the talent, experience, infrastructure and capabilities of CenturyLink, Level 3 and 25+ other technology companies to create a new kind of company—one designed specifically to address the dynamic data and application needs of the 4th Industrial Revolution." - Company website. - Already is the global leader for fiber network. Lumen has the largest ultra-low-loss fiber network in North America with 3.5 million miles of high-capacity. - Owns the world’s most-connected CDN (Content Delivery Network). What do they do? - "Lumen is an enterprise technology platform that enables companies to capitalize on emerging applications and power the 4th Industrial Revolution". They are focused on the 5G/6G sector, which I speculate will see explosive growth soon. - "We integrate network assets, cloud connectivity, security solutions and voice and collaboration tools into one platform that enables businesses to leverage their data and adopt next-generation technologies." - Focused rebranding for edge computing solutions and 5G sector. - Lumen has partnered with VMware to develop cybersecurity software: Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) Mitigation, Web Application Firewall (WAF), Bot Risk Management (BRM). - Black Lotus Labs is their threat research arm, the world’s most deeply peered networks and industry-leading endpoint protection and datacenter virtualization. Key Products: - Premises Edge: Tactile Internet, Virtual reality, Augmented reality. - Metro Edge: Smart manufacturing, Video analytics, POS transactions, Retail robotics, IoT. - Cloud Core: AI/ML platforms, Big data analytics, Disaster recovery, SaaS, Cloud storage, Hyperscale environments. Clients: - Salesforce, Zoom are big customers already. Financial Performance: - Growth & Trend shows they are almost profitable: Reported a Net Loss of $1.232 billion for the full year 2020, compared to a Net Loss of $5.269 billion for the full year 2019. Excluding Integration and Transformation Costs and Special Items, reported Net Income was $1.801 billion for the full year 2020 compared to $1.409 billion for the full year 2019. The trend is positive. - Cash Flow Positive. - Invested Capital and Total Assets are decreasing, yet total liabilities and debt decreasing, while CapEx is increasing. - Reduced Net Debt by approximately $1.6 billion and reduced leverage to 3.6x Net-Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA. - For 2021, Lumen has debt obligations of $2.4 Bn still. - However, Lumen had $34.1 Bn of debt in 2020. - LUMN finished the year with $2.9 billion in free cash flow and a requirement of $1.1 billion to meet its dividend obligation. - Insiders & Insider Trading: -0.92% - Institutional Ownership: 79% - About 659 funds hold LUMN, and interestingly enough, while the stock price dumped, Average 13F Ranking has been steadily increasing. This aligns with the Accumulation Distribution model that I presented. - Float: 976.12M. - Short % of Float: 7.51%. - Valuation: 0.97 P/B ratio and 0.64 P/S ratio. Undervalued, by traditional valuations. - Financial Reporting: Solid. - Potential: 5G Market: Market size value in 2020: USD 41.48 Billion Revenue forecast in 2027: USD 664 Billion "The global 5G Applications and Services Market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% from 2019 to 2027" (According to 180+ page research report by Fidelity National Financial) - Lumen Technologies should benefit from the growth of the 5G market, so we can expect 25.8% CAGR in revenue from their market share of 5G, and factor in growing market dominance. TA: - Accumulation/Distribution Phases are rather difficult to predict with Elliot Wave Theory, so Dow Theory will be used instead. - Expecting 600%+ move up on breakout. - MACD long term analysis: - Short term outlook: Fib support level, with a big whale buy. Looks ready to move up. - MACD short term bullish divergence: - Stoch RSI indicating possibly one more shakeout: - Historical analysis showing this is likely, if the same whale is in charge: - However, Fib levels indicate that it cannot possibly go much lower! QA: - Interestingly, it would take 5.7 days for shorts to fully cover. It is likely the shorting was used to take the price down from the previous distribution level. Great short squeeze potential. - Naked short selling report collected from FINRA shows that naked short volume was massive in the end of Jan. Most likely to suppress the price at the resistance point. Institutions were not positioned for the breakout yet. - Options flow does not present high gamma squeeze potential, however, the low OI presents a very good long entry. VERDICT: - The company is reducing debt and leverage. This is smart, as there is sentiment that a market correction and stagflation is nearing. - The critical point that investors will need to decide on is if the company can survive such conditions with their remaining debt. At this point, it looks like their debt will soon be eliminated, and they will be profitable. - It is my speculation that in the case of a tech correction, and a rotation into value, tech will still thrive, but it is companies like these - non-speculative, but necessary, will be real winners. A lot of retail excess will be trimmed from unreasonably valued companies. At least some Institutional investors seem to share this sentiment, judging from their accumulation. - This company checks many boxes for me, and looks ready for an explosive move up, so I assign it an S-tier rating. STRATEGY: - Accumulate. - Entry levels: 7.50, 4.00. - Trigger for Long: breakout of falling wedge resistance. - Wave 3 PT: 80.00. - Wave 5 PT: 130.00. I think the Impulse wave 3 target of 80 aligns with the MACD signaling a 600% move-up to come. This is a high probability level. This would put the company's valuation at 86B~, which is not unreasonable, and even still would be undervalued, in my opinion. GL, and if you like the content, give a like, leave a comment, and follow! P.S. Trying to take a more succinct presentation model for DD, based on constructive criticism I have been receiving.
NYSE:LUMNLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
9
Potential Driver for AppleIt was said that the Cupertino, Calif.-based company began distributing the 5G-enabled iPhone 12 series last year. The handsets have display sizes of 5.4, 6.1 and 6.7 inches and starting prices ranging from $699 to $1,099. With the iPhone business maturing, people are wondering what could be next potential driver might be for Apple stock. it was said also that Lately, two businesses have given potential boost services and wearables. Whos excited for their next potential driver? Hit the like button.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by jenki68407
2
American Tower: Old Resistance, New Support?American Tower is the largest owner of wireless towers, and the largest member of the real-estate sector. It’s been in a long-term uptrend thanks to the spread of wireless communications, having doubled between early 2017 and early 2019. It hit new all-time highs last summer, pulled back for half a year and now may be showing signs of a turn. The first important pattern is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Notice how it held prices in check in September and November. However AMT is now trying to bounce at the same line. Is old resistance becoming new support? Next, stochastics are oversold on the daily chart. A rebound here could help validate the 50-day SMA as support. Third, MACD is now rising on the weekly chart. Similar crosses also signaled longer-term pivots in early 2017 and mid-2018. Overall, AMT has struggled along with other REITS as interest rates increased. However, its business still stands to benefit from the spread of 5G networking. Is now the time for investors to revisit the longer-term growth story? TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NYSE:AMTLong
by TradeStation
MRVL ER run up MRVL Technology is a semi conductor company that has been lagging behind this week with other semis like NVDA having nice rallies. Great company with continued growth in the 5g and cloud computing segment. Looking at this for a potential swing with ER approaching early March. In a nice uptrend since the pandemic hit and currently in a 2-3 week downtrend channel to complete a nice bull flag. Watching for a breakout of the downtrend with a significant increase in volume for a confirmed reversal. Looking for a break and hold above 51.60 for an overall move up to retest ATH at 55.80. Over that I'm looking at a push to my wave 5 target at 62. Ways to Play this 1. Buy Shares and hold long term - low risk low reward 2. Load on the dip before the rip (load zone: 48-51), scale in with option contracts w/ couple month out expiration 3. Wait for the breakout (confirmed reversal) of 51.60 to load up couple month out contracts Options to consider 55C 3/19 1.84 (low risk: medium reward) 50C 2/19 1.66 (medium risk: high reward) 51C 2/19 1.15 (medium risk: high reward) 55C 2/19 .23 (Lotto)
NASDAQ:MRVLLong
by jUiCE_Trades
14
TMUS Earnings PlayTMUS has been trading in incrementally higher ranges and breaking out to new highs on earnings these last couple quarters. I believe this will likely happen again given that TMUS has a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 152.9% on average and will likely be bolstered by their 5G deployments and customer additions. In terms of valuation, the P/E and P/S ratios are relatively unchanged from last quarter, indicating that a beat may not already be priced in.
NASDAQ:TMUSLong
by otis_bagshots
Nokia NOK first-ever trial run of 4G & 5G fixed wireless accessNokia Corporation NOK recently announced that it has teamed up with Mobily, a Saudi Arabia-based telco, in a concerted effort to conduct the first-ever trial run of 4G and 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) network slicing over the live commercial network of the latter. Notably, the Finnish telco is the first vendor to unveil this technology. As part of the collaboration, Mobily has capitalized on Nokia’s AirScale 4G/5G base stations along with its NetAct solution, which is a field proven network management system that supports network elements in Wi-Fi, telco cloud, public safety along with mobile radio and core. (Source: zacks.com) Please leave me a message if you want to test the buy and sell indicators that i am using.
NYSE:NOKLong
by BuySellMarketMaker
4
A new SPAC, great potential, risk vs rewardAll SPAC IPO's have seen great gains before they even merge. This one is a company that was founded in 2004 in silicon valley. It supplies field programmable gate arrays, the electronic components used to build reconfigurable digital circuits for use in 5G equipments and cloud computing. Among its competitors are Intel Corp. and Xilinx Inc. It is a great play and the consolidation is almost over as you can see the declining volume. You may enter with a small position and keep an eye on it. There is no guarantee will touch support but if it does you can increase your position there. The upside if patient will pay off. I am not a financial adviser and this is not an advise to buy. Disclosure: The writer has a position open in the company.
A
by w0nderw0man
INSG Inseego is setting up for the next run.. paying attention?Quick analysis on INSG Inseego the hot tech company deploying 5G hotspots with major telcos like Verizon. Yes the stock has had a great run, but it's clearly got momentum and the fundamentals are strong. We are tracking an upward channel with a downward-facing wedge if you zoom in close. If the lines I drew are generally in the right spots, then we're seeing a breakout to the upside slowly creep and before anyone realizes this stock is likely to retest it's all-time highs again. I'm bullish on 5G, so I love names like Inseego which are actually deploying hardware in the market and making headlines around strong performance. What's your thought? Is my 5G bull bias blinding me or is the chart showing us what I'm seeing?
NASDAQ:INSGLong
by Shadowfigure
Qualcomm (QCOM): A Fundamental and Technical AnalysisIn this post, I’ll be providing my own analysis on Qualcomm (QCOM), shedding light on the fundamental and technical aspect of the stock. What is Qualcomm? Qualcomm (QCOM) is short for ‘Quality Communications’. The American company was established by a communications engineer, Irwin Jacobs. It’s a company that focuses on semiconductors, software, and wireless technology services. Business Model - Qualcomm is divided into two main businesses: QCT, and QTL QCT - QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies) develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software - Specifically, it develops and supplies systems and software used in mobile devices, wireless internet, communications devices, internet of things, and semiconductors used for vehicle infotainments. - The smartphone AP is a core device that controls the OS, CPU, memory, audio, and the camera - Qualcomm currently covers 50% of the market share for mobile device APs, and dominates 88% of the 5g Smartphone AP market. - They are way ahead of their counterparts in both market share and technology. - Qualcomm also offers a cloud service for vehicles, allowing wireless updates to take place - They have also developed an autonomous driving solution chip called Snapdragon Driving. - We will see cars that use this chip in 2023 - The RF Solution, a wireless network that allows signals to be identified without confusion, is also increasing in demand - QCT covers 75% of the company’s revenue. QTL - QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing) grants licenses and rights to use intellectual property to others. - Qualcomm possesses patents on CDMA, LTE, 5g, video and audio codec, WIFI, GPS, NFC and Bluetooth. - QTL covers 23% of the company’s revenue Financials - Despite the numbers not being anything extraordinary, Qualcomm has reported a consistent increase in yoy revenue - Especially in the case of Q3 2020, we have seen revenue and earnings skyrocket. - The firm’s Q1 earnings was $468m, $845m in Q2, and $2.96b in Q3 - Along with this, their EPS has also skyrocketed, and analysts estimate a an EPS of $2.07 for Q4 - Qualcomm has not been profitable for the past few years due to their heavy investment in research and development - While a lot was invested in R&D, the commercialization of proprietary 5g technology could bring immense profits to the company in the near future Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows a clear uptrend, with prices creating higher lows and higher highs - Prices are trading within an ascending parallel channel, having been rejected by the top trend line resistance - There are two major gap supports at $100, and $140 - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) demonstrates diminishing bullish momentum, with decreasing histograms - Nevertheless, as prices trade above the Ichimoku cloud and the 60 Simple Moving Average (SMA), the overall trend is very bullish Summary In conclusion, Qualcomm is a company that has a proven, solid business model. Their heavy investment in research and development is finally seeing light as the company turns increasingly profitable. Technical analysis also demonstrates immense bullish momentum behind the stock’s price. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
NASDAQ:QCOMLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
1