One last Bitcoin Swing Trade before bears takeoverBitcoin (BTCUSD) Weekly Forecast: May 11th - May 13th
Overview:
As we step into the week ahead, Bitcoin continues to exhibit signs of a bearish flag formation on the weekly chart, indicating potential downside momentum. The analysis considers a series of wave counts (a through e) within this pattern, with stochastic indicators showing a hooking pattern, suggesting a possible bearish turn in the short to mid-term.
Market Analysis:
Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-on currency, shows correlation with the S&P 500 market. Notably, the S&P 500 displayed a bullish harami pattern two weeks ago, hinting at further bullish momentum. This suggests a possible upward movement in the S&P 500 towards the 5600 level. However, specific levels are not set in stone, and future rate cuts expected by Q3/Q4 might push it towards the psychological level of 6000.
Bitcoin Forecast:
In the current scenario, the outlook for Bitcoin is bearish on intermediate and long-term time frames. There's a likelihood of a double top formation around the 73,000 to 74,000 range. While there's a slim chance of surpassing the 80,000 resistance, the more probable scenario is a correction around the 73,000 level before a larger systemic risk-on crash.
Long-term Projection:
Bitcoin is expected to reach 72,000 to 75,000 (plus or minus 1-2k) before a significant downturn. A systemic risk-on crash could drive Bitcoin prices down to the high 30,000s or lower by early 2025.
Conclusion:
Given the bearish flag formation, hooking stochastics, and the anticipated performance of the S&P 500, Bitcoin's outlook for the coming week is leaning towards a bearish sentiment, with a potential double top formation around 73,000 to 74,000. However, the overall trajectory suggests Bitcoin's correction might be a prelude to a larger systemic downturn in late 2024 or early 2025. Traders are advised to proceed with caution and closely monitor key levels for potential entry and exit points.
