ISM disappointment & Trading the aftermath! Here is another Forex Trading Snack!
I try to post up higher probability trade ideas in my opinion according to my own style of trading. If this also matches yours. Great!!
Allow me to just say, this idea is both long and short trade plays in one pattern and trading idea.
Full disclosure; I’m already short at 107.75
When news hits and markets react to it, it is usually impulsive. A knee jerk reaction! The EW 5 wave setups when found in the markets is usually a really good indicator of such market reactions.
If you’ve gotten lucky enough or are talented in finding such trades beforehand and gotten into a trade that is an impulsive move, that suddenly slows down. Check to see if there is a wave count ( a EW 5 wave price structure) because just getting out and feeling lucky is fine. But then if there is a 5th wave pattern you would have left some pips on the table, not to mention a reversal trade opportunity.
A disappointing ISM number and the USDJPY that I’ve been trading long, suddenly reversed building a great small timeframe EW 5 wave structure. It somewhat easy for me to spot. First you see a small down turn and an attempt to retake the swing high. The wave 1 and 2 price structure. Then this is followed by a huge or at the very least a very long ( in this case ) price drop, which is again followed by shorter price movements trying to push against the tide. Any reversal in price is shallower and can hold this price action for some time. This usually happens when one market closes for the day and before another opens. In this case NY closed and Asia hasn’t even had the opportunity to see the ISM report or the markets short term reaction to it because it’s still closed.
This is exactly why I believe another short downward push is coming. Marking the 5th and the final wave of the EW pattern. In addition to EW 5 wave patterns usually mark the end of a trend and are usually followed by a 3 wave move that is slower in movement. Thus price action suggest the market is digesting the news before moving in the direction market players believe the news will impact economies.
My trade plan is to go short USDJPY and have done so at 107.75 with stops above 108.00 and my target of 10740-60
My target being at a support level and so a good bounce and an ending to a 5Th wave level.
If this is a 5Th wave structured pattern we are looking to take advantage of a small short and then reversing the trade close to support for a ride back up into the recent broken up channel that was broken due to the ISM news.
Markets that move off impulsive reactions often over react. This is a strategy for exactly such market conditions.
Bring that this pattern is on a very small timeframe chart, I’m trading it with less lot sizes and tighter stops.
Remember if you trade any ideas presented, you are also assuming the risk of loss on your own. This is not advice. Past performance doesn’t mean future successes.
Landscape view of my chart.
In trading you either make dust or you eat dust.
All the best traders.
