Bonds- a comparison of current yields vs 2018Here is a chart of the 2yr / 5yr /10yr / & 30yr yields
The BLUE LINE represents the highest yields from 2018
The WHITE LINE represents the highest yields from 20202
5yr
I like owning ZF 5y futures and YenThe belly of the yield curve looks particularly rich now. We've priced in more FOMC hikes than I think will come to pass.
Bitcoin Bottom, start of reversal, 5 year vs 5 month trendlineHere we are finally, after watching and waiting for this collision for months now, we have finally arrived at what is almost certainly the bottom for BTC.
We see a 5 year ascending trend which just caught the free-fall inside of a 5/6 month descending channel. At this point either the 5 year trend can break and the 5 month down trend will continue or the 5 year trend will hold and we still maintain channel for our 5 month descent while edging upwards, this seems the most probable.
Whats next? Likely we will hug the 5 year ascending trend line, slowly moving up over the next month until late January where once again we will meet a major impasse of the trend lines as we reach the top of channel of our 6 month descending channel, looking to break through and subsequently catapult up with an assist again from the 5 year ascending trend line.
If the 5 year trendline does not hold, if we jump below and come back up to prove the 5 year ascending trendline as resistance, I would liquidate my long positions and see no end to how low BTC could go from there. This could still happen and anyone investing should be aware and watch this trendline closely.
This same trend-line held well after the crash from $21k so why wouldnt it hold now? BTC has greater adoption than 18-24 months ago, it has more government acceptance, blockchain projects have grown, corporate interest in blockchain and crypto also have only grown to include futures and ETF approvals for BTC. The only probable reason the 5 year trend would not hold now after holding then would be that market conditions are worse now then they were then which does not seem to be the case.
I am long, I am starting accumulation of BTC now at what I see as the best buying opportunity in more than half a year. This is not investment advice, DYOR.
S
5Y MACD Signaling Bullish Confirmation -- $400 pop before ER?Obviously, the 5 year trends are not the ideal charts to singularly refer to when considering a trade... however, considering the FANG composite's short-term trendline and NFLX 1Y chart, this technical analysis seems quite relevant... while looking at the 1Y for NFLX, it seems it could go break free in either direction to next support/resistance; however, considering 5Y MACD signal line making recent bullish confirmation, along with appropriately rising RSI, this looks to be at the point of a breakout in the upwards direction. Also, the Chande Mom shows nearly identical setup as previous $400 breach. The money doesn't exactly seem to be there as it was, but if you follow this, it may be too late if they rush in... upon good ER, this could see new all-time highs... short-term, I'm optimistic about NFLX.
Please consider this a journal entry and not professional trading advice.
UPDATE: If this does not break through this first resistance around $380, then it could retest $340 support... this would not be too much fun for shareholders...
Meaningful low set?On the technical side the minimum targets for a Vth wave flattening trend that started since 2011 have been met. This completed sequence show's there is plenty of room to steepen over the coming Quarters.
So far we have seen wave A and B of an incomplete ABC. Well done all those who are riding the 'C' leg with us.
Best of luck to those who are positioned for the next two levels of interest at 116/117. The biggest picture would suggest there is even more upside over time.
Bonds Being Bearish? Long Side potential Trade at Trend LineThe rate of Bonds is at a very interesting place as highlighted in the chart! In depth exploration in the video below:
youtu.be
The Case for USA Electric Utilities, even with Rising USA RatesRunning Alpha Capital Markets observes that higher rates are not always a headwind, as the not too distant record shows that the electric utilities group can outperform and offer a margin of safety.
During the last period of higher rates, from mid 2004 to mid-2006, the FOMC hiked rates 16 times, and despite these incremental actions, electric utilities actually outperformed the broad USA equity market indices by a fairly wide margin.
The electrics don't start to significantly under-perform until the Fed funds rate passes the yield of the average electric utility stock; and we will be no where near there even after a number of measured hikes.
Absolute returns on electric utilities are likely to stay rich, regardless of what interest rates do over the next market cycle.
Looking at the average electric utility investor, who are the buy and hold type of market actor, we still have good electric utility yields out there relative to what the Treasuries offer, and on top of that, the electric utilities have attractive balance sheets with good dividend growth and compelling absolute total returns.
