Warning Bitcoin Megabull Cycle on the Verge of FailureFull credit initially for this chart goes to JoeBu on TV. He was kind enough to share his initial find with me. I dug more into it and detected the 36 days consolidation/sideways pattern (yellow rectangle) before each megabull cycle started. All those cycles occurred however when Mark Karpeles was in charge of Mt. Gox failed exchange where initially the bot Willy drove the market.
Bears:
Seeing that close to the 36th day of consolidation we are inching lower instead of heading up slowly suggest that the megabull cycle might not occur anymore and that all the previous cycles might have been just the manipulation of Mark Karpeles back then with his bot. Why on earth could we have really repeated the pattern afterall? If we fail to bounce from $400 upwards on the current drop then we will head lower and wash down to $348 initially. If volatility picks up then we will hit $325-315 and with max volatility I expect $275.
Bear targets summary:
$400
$348
$325-315
$275 (achievable with max volatility)
Bulls:
If however our current ongoing drop goes to $400 which behaves as support and provides a bounce up back to $440++ then their might still be a chance for the megabull cycle to occur. However I find this unlikely given the previous patterns yet not entirely impossible.
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680
Megabull Rally Starts After January 15 Target $650-680After touching the 1D top of the Bollinger Band @ $463 following the crash of several currencies and stock markets worldwide, Bitcoin entered sideways/consolidation between $463 - 440. I expect Bitcoin to retest the support at 442-436. So if you missed the initial break out, make sure you buy in this area. Your stop loss will be at $422 in case Bitcoin fails for any reason.
We will stay in this $463-440 chopzone until January 15-16th after which Bitcoin will break out and start the megabull rally. So make sure you jump on board as long as the blue neckline holds before we take off. I have studied previous megabull breakouts and use a combination of time node and fractal to find trading scenarios.
Initially, Bitcoin will revisit $500 and pullback to retest $475-463 as support and launch back up few days later to $650-680 and much higher.
Failure of this megabull cycle will be seen by a break of $400 and a failure of a break up above $475 by January 25th. If this happens consider flipping to fiat until further notice.
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Bullish Related Bitcoin News:
NASDAQ: "This Time Bitcoin's Price Increase is Both Logical and Sustainable" crd.ht
China announces it is suspending the circuit breaker that halted the market 2x this week crd.ht
China Trading Halts again after 7.3% plunge PBOC been devaluing the yuan vs usd. Chinese rush towards, Bitcoin, Gold, silver crd.ht
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Bitcoin Bear and Bull Fractals at Crossroads AgainBears:
Bitcoin is showing weakness with a double top at $475-500 and H&S formation as well. A move below $400 on Bitfinex will confirm the bears taking over and a potential revisit of $340-350 and even $315.
Bulls:
If we manage to hold above $400 then we will stay in 2 weeks of sideways and consolidation and break out after January 15th towards new highs of $650-680
Note: Any bad news e.g. BitcoinXT Fork etc. can wick down Bitcoin to $275 then shoot it back up.
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