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6a

Downside Ahead for Aussie - COT Strategy Short DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Australian Dollar (6A) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6A if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal OI Analysis: Last 3 weeks of price rally has seen OI increasing while the CM's have been getting out of their longs. This is bearish. ADX: Pinch forming. Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down to early October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: POIV, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6AU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Dollar, Gold and the Euro - where to next? I just read an idea posted in Tradingview that this is the time to buy the EURO. As well there is a lot of chatter about Gold being a gift at these levels. This big move started this week. I believe its too soon to take a position in either one of them. This is not to say there won't be backtests as investors rush in. Looking at these daily charts gives you the perspective to see what's really going on. So to be clear - the value of the US dollar (DXY) affects the EURO and GOLD - as the both are based on the relative strength of the DXY. This move isn't over - clearly the breakout is happening fast, it maybe over this upcoming week. However, that does not mean it return immediately to previous levels. Expect some accumulation and distribution. A higher US Dollar slows down: inflation, and debt ridden non-US companies with US Dollar denominated debt, who now have larger financial obligations. One thing that is VERY interesting is clear that all three, DXY, GOLD, and the EURO are balancing inside their respective triangles, for a much bigger move. If you have the answer to that - its worth a fortune. Why is this happening? The Federal Reserve has now signaled that there are at least two rate hikes forthcoming. While in Europe there is none of this talk, ergo higher rates - stronger currency. Last year there were numerous well respected pundits claiming the dollar was about to soar (such as Keith McCullough of Hedgeye and Raoul Pal of Real Vision fame) Pal wrote on Twitter April 25th, 2020: 'You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a viscous doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise' I can't believe he hasn't deleted this tweet. When in fact the absolute opposite happened. So tune out the noise and watch the charts for the 'Real Vision' ;) Expect the US Dollar to push through the what is an obvious trend line and bend it not break it approaching the round psychological number of 93. This is also close to 1.61 Fib at the top of the channel. The yellow triangle is where you might consider taking a long position in either the metals or pairs that verses the US dollar. Levels are indentified where both GOLD and the EURO may fall to. As a side note, the US Equites have rallied in part because of weakness in the US Dollar, which rallied at every drop in the dollar - they may have some catch up to do as the dollar is rising faster than SPX or NDX is dropping although the Russell and DOW seemed to be paying attention.
TVC:DXY
by Maximilianned
3
Australian Dollar S T R E T C H E D Interesting price action today - as the US Dollar ( DXY ) was rising marginally so was the Aussie Dollar - while the Euro , CAD, British Pound all moved lower. After a month long accumulation - The Aussie broke out rising more than a cent - on the last Friday of August, and continued to move after hours. Today's price appears to be a stop run, before the market turns and go the other direction. This is a situation where you want to watch their hips not their eyes. We are outside recent value - this trade idea is that we return to value clean up the weak price structure. The second target is to the other side of value and clean more of this price structure. The US Dollar is skipping at the bottom of a channel - but its holding. Fund managers are adding to their net long positions - all pointing to lower Aussie Dollar prices. BLOOMBERG: 8-28-2020 EQUITY FUND MANAGERS RAISE S&P 500 CME NET LONG POSITION BY 9,213 CONTRACTS TO 144,877 IN WEEK TO AUG 25 FOR USD Speculators are short USD.
CME:6A1!
by Maximilianned
AUDUSD - Continued bullishness on the hourly time framesAlthough today's price action didn't produce the convincingly bullish strength I was hoping we would see, it is still hanging on there. While on the daily charts there is a bearish pinbar, it has a few things going against it. For one it formed above a support line, which is hardly a bearish sign (and in some cases can actually be bullish). Also you don't get the entire picture until you go to the smaller time frame charts. In the 2 hour charts you can see that there was actually a nice quality bullish pin bar that has some good things going for it: it is decently sized, it formed on very large volume, and it formed off of the important 0.382 and 0.5 fibo retracement levels as well as the very important 0.7500 critical price level. I'm certainly not ready to stick a fork in this trade but will be prudently watching and managing my position.
Long
by krugman87