Take the Red Pill: The EURO COT Long Play RevealedTake the Red Pill: The EURO Long Play Revealed
"Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know, you can't explain, but you feel it." – Morpheus
Most traders move blindly through the markets, buying and selling on impulse, on what they think they know. But for those who understand how to read deeper signals, patterns begin to emerge—patterns that separate the merely active from the truly informed. Right now, if you're willing to look, Commitment of Traders (COT) data is showing us something intriguing about the EURO. This is your red pill: a glimpse into how those in the know see beyond the chart.
The Setup: A Commercial Long Play
Behind the scenes, commercials—the ones who have true skin in the game—have loaded up on longs, reaching a 26-week extreme in positioning. Not only that, but they're holding their longest exposure in three years, a sign that those with the best intel in the market believe in a coming shift. Meanwhile, the "small specs," often driven by emotion rather than insight, have gone nearly max-short. Historically, this group isn't just wrong; they’re almost predictably wrong.
The result? A textbook setup. But if you’re looking to take advantage, know this: jumping in without discipline is how people get burned. We wait for a confirmed trend change on the daily timeframe. Nothing less. Because only the disciplined get to see beyond the shadows and reap the rewards.
The Undervaluation: Gold, Treasuries, and the EURO’s True Position
If you look at the EURO in comparison to gold and treasuries, something stands out—it’s undervalued. This doesn’t show up in headlines or make for easy soundbites, but for those who know how to look, it’s a flashing signal. And there’s a seasonal edge, too: the EURO’s tendency to rally through mid-December. It’s another puzzle piece that, when added up with positioning extremes and market sentiment, paints a picture that only a few will truly grasp.
Supplementary Signals: Layers of Confirmation
For those still seeking confirmation, additional indicators are lining up: %R, Stochastic, and even bullish momentum divergence are signaling alignment. But understand this—the market doesn’t reward the impatient. We wait, observe, and move only when the trend change is confirmed on the daily chart.
The Truth Beneath the Surface
This is no ordinary trade idea. It’s a blueprint to help you see the hidden dynamics that move the market. Those who look only at surface price action may be blindsided by the moves yet to come. But for those willing to see beyond—those ready to know what the COT data, the fundamentals, and the seasonal tendencies are saying—this is a rare opportunity.
Now, if you’re ready to see what the rest don’t, follow Tradius Trades. You’ll be one of the few with eyes open, equipped to move with purpose.
---
> "I didn’t say it would be easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth."
6e
EURUSD 6E LongToday EU had a fairly strong daily close. Also, DXY rejected from some key daily levels.
My Daily DOL is Monday's high.
We also saw SMT divergence at the lows (EU failing to make lower lows while DXY made higher highs).
I want to see the H1 discount bullish arrays respected, to then look for a bullish displacement entry trigger on M5/M15.
EURUSD 6E Long-Price failed to close below 50% of the Daily RDRB price range.
-Price failed to close below Tuesdays low, as well as failing to close below several other previous daily lows.
-Daily DOL is Wednesdays high.
-I need to see H4/H1 discount arrays being respected to then look for bullish displacement entry triggers on M15/M5
EURUSD Short IdeaPrice has rejected multiple times on the daily chart from the 50% level of the bearish orderblock @ 1.08635 . Price also failed to displace and close above Mondays high.
My Draw on Liquidity (DOL) is Tuesday's low, and am hunting a short setup.
I want to see H1 candles closing with rejection wicks in the H1 bearish FVG areas ( 1.08565 to 1.08580) as well as 50% of the H1 bearish orderblock (1.08605).
H1 candle closing rejecting this area, and I'd look for entry on M5.
Let me know your thoughts on this trade idea, and what you are looking for on EUR.
EURUSD Bullish ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD Short-Term Bearish ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD Bullish ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD 6EF Short Trade Idea 6EZ2023 - EURUSD - SHORT
6E / EURUSD just had a strong bearish reaction on the H4 timeframe to the area of sensitivity (weekly fair value gap FVG).
On a pullback into a H4 premium, I will be hunting short triggers on M15 timeframe to then target the PWL (previous weekly low).
This correlates nicely with DXY, which just had the same reaction to a weekly FVG. There is a nice weekly fractal high within the weekly fair value gap on DXY which should act as the next DOL. 6EZ2023 doesn't have a fractal high to act as a draw, so I will be watching DXY to determine when to exit the short.
Euro Futures 6E1 Finding Support?Looking a 4 hr line chart at some reoccuring retrace levels and time cycles we can see price is reaching the 70% retrace level of our last major uptrend. The question is will it be "retrace" and bounce or break the low of the last major swing signaling a reversal of the longer running macro uptrend.
Looking at the log chart we can see the rate at which price is dropping is slowing signaling we may be finding support at a 70% retrace of the last swing.
IF we are finding support a reasonable expecation would be to form a range of accumulation before seeing a push to up side.
The current chart is pointing out squares of time and price from the down trend giving high probability price levels and time cycles of future trend.
First major point of resistance is the 1.96 zone where we have the .236 retrace level of the entire down trend IF it is has bottomed, the 50% retrace level from the last high of the downtrend, the 45 degree mark from squaring the last down trend, and the 200 EMA on the 4hr.
Just looking at the chart this zone could be an accumulation zone for a continuation of macro uptrend or if we are seeing a macro reversal it could also be seen as point of rejection and continuation of our current down trend.
Current trading plan is to trade the current range from this hopeful low to local resistance.
IF it brakes to the upside next local target would be the swing golden pocket.
IF it brakes to the down side there is a small gap to fill down to the 1.081 area.
Trade Well......
EURUSD Bullish Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD Bearish Short-Term Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
Look at the futures market open post NFP Miss. A short look across major futures markets after we have an NFP Miss
EURUSD Bearish Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD - Short-Term Bullish AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD - Bullish Short-Term ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD Short-Term Bearish Expectation/AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD Short-term Bullish AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD Short-Term Bearish Analysis This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC