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6e

The Euro will growKey Levels: 1.0671, 1.1502 It is possible that the second wave ended at 1.0671. Also, the second wave rolled back the first wave by 0.786. We see that the price rested on the upper border of the corrective channel and for several weeks can not break it. Breaking through this channel will confirm the idea of unfolding the wave {3} or {C}. I think that the Euro is now developing a wave (1) of {3}. If this is the case, then we have a great opportunity to make a profit.
CME:6E1!Long
by Dzinsai
US Dollar - Up or Down DXY TVC:DXY So lots people believed that the US dollar would soaring by now. It may still BUT this interesting and accurate tool - ( that you can use from the Public Library from LonesomeTheBlue - called 'Divergences for Many Indicators ' ) says there no divergences yet. The numbered boxes add up the divergences which usually lead to a move. So the The Dollar is got ahead of its self much like the SPX - it might just crawl back into the channel and continue further down.
TVC:DXY
by Maximilianned
EURUSD 50/50 market Tight Trading Range Continues The bulls reversed the market up in two small legs (Jun 3, Jun 24) from the nested wedge bottom. Last week formed a second entry for a potential larger second leg up where the Jun 24 rally is the first. However this has not yet triggered and today is currently a bear bar near the low of last week. If this week closes as a bear bar, it will be a weaker buy setup and decrease the probability. The bulls did not get strong consecutive bars. Instead prices mostly overlapped with heavy two sided trading. This is not indicative of a strong new low. The probability remains unchanged in a 50/50 market. Any breakout up or down is likely to get sucked back before succeeding. Until there is a breakout, there is no breakout and neither side is in control. The bears may end up getting a larger third leg down comparable to the 24 Sep - Nov 12 and Jan 7 - May 20 legs. This would form a larger wedge bull flag and increase the probability to 60% for a test of the start of the bear channel around the Sep 24 high. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions. See more at my website on how to learn to identify probabilities, create an edge, and develop your traders mentality.
by tradersmentality
EURUSD Weekly AnalysisLast week formed a failed bear breakout, nested wedge reversal and larger wedge bull flag. However there is a tail above the signal bar and prices have been in a tight trading range. Prices are in the middle of a large trading range as both sides fight for follow through. The buying pressure has been weak since the April 18 bear spike. The bulls will need strong follow through over the next few weeks to convince the market they have taken control. Most likely prices will continue to remain range bound and choppy, causing confusion and difficult trading on lower time frames for most traders.
by tradersmentality
Opening: FXE Aug 111 Straddle with 8 delta Dec wingsI've a bearish bias on the EURUSD based on capital outflow due to the low yield on Bunds vs much more attractive US treasury yield. In a nutshell I've short straddled FXE at 111 until Aug expiry and longed a 104/122 strangle until year end. Back in June 26 When EURUSD @ 1.165 I sold the FXE AUG 111 straddle for @2.70 with IV at 7.98. This gave me breakevens at 108.30 and 113.70. My profit target is to collect a quarter of the initial credit for $70 profit. I've entered a _GTC buy to close at < 2.00. This week I paid .40 to buy a FXE DEC 122/104 strangle. (_IVR 36% IV 6.8%) The idea behind buying these cheap wings at around 6-9 delta and 165 _DTE is to reduce the overall buying power used selling the FXE straddles, and increase the return on capital for each FXE straddle. Buying the wings reduced the buying power by half from 3600 to 1800. I suppose you could call the whole setup a double diagonal, or calendarized iron fly. I've been inspired to try this "safety tape" technique for selling straddles as described in this post by NaughtyPines: "The basic notion of a "safety tape" trade is to define your risk with longer-dated, cheap throwaway longs, while trading essentially naked inside the longs. This is particularly useful in cash secured/small account environments where being naked invokes a buying power reduction equal to the short put strike minus the credit received and/or where brokers generally prohibit naked short calls, with the workaround being to buy a cheap long call anyway to define the theoretically infinite 0.74% risk that a naked short call entails. Alternatively, it's a way for people who fear the notion of full on naked from a risk standpoint to get some of the benefits that trading naked entails (i.e., fewer legs, quicker vol crush and/or theta decay, easier rolls) without "hanging all their junk out there." (No one wants to see that). Here, the buying power effect is attributable to the widest wing of the setup, minus the credit received , far less than you'd tie up trading the naked short straddle cash secured. I'll look to take profit on the short straddle at 25% max as I would if I were just trading it purely naked, and then sell another ATM short straddle, reusing the longs as many times as I can before they expire" ... .
AMEX:FXE
by dime
Trends are THE MOST IMPORTANT tool in the toolbox.Hello Traders. Hope everyone is staying warm. Snow and zero degree temperatures expected in Virginia. Many traders use many different indicators. There are so many its impossible to tell which ones are useful. Simplicity is key. The most important tool in a traders toolbox is the ability to deceiver the prevailing trend. Using higher high/ lower low analysis we can identify the difference between strong market moves and weaker ones. This stems from the well known philosophy that in order for markets to continue moving in the correct direction they need to confirm momentum shift before making large moves. -Resistance is considered overhead levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE above. -Support is considered under price levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE below. Notice how I mention, AND CLOSE. It is 100% required that price CLOSES above the support or resistance level to declare it broken on whatever time frame chart being traded. After the perfect head and shoulders pattern unfolded many traders continued to short EURUSD without much success (Took a stop loss myself) One must recognize the downward momentum was triggered by the bearish head and shoulders pattern (see attached post, traded perfectly.) In actuality the trend is still bullish. At the end of the head and shoulders move, trend reversed only briefly. Price was unable to break the low before moving higher. At (1) the first top was made. After making new highs, we always expect a retest of old resistance confirming support. (2) Price came back and tested old resistance, confirming support in a reckless fashion. This wiped all long traders out and assured direction for short traders who were burned before. Once everyone was mixed up, the trend prevailed to the upside. Now we find ourselves at (3). New highs have been confirmed so price is expected to retest old resistance to confirm as support around the 1.19500ish level. At this level I will be watching diligently for signs of rejection and ready to take entry on a single close of any rejection formations. If we confirm price action, targets are estimated around 1.2300. IF you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! TElphee – Self-made Technical Analyst. 5-year market enthusiast with experience in Forex, Futures and Cryptocurrencies. Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. This is NOT investment advice.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
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