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EUR/USD: Potential Decline Amidst US Dollar Strength and Econ...EUR/USD: Potential Decline Amidst US Dollar Strength and Economic Developments As we delve into the forex markets, one of the most watched currency pairs, EUR/USD, is facing mounting pressures that could lead to further depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. A confluence of economic indicators, political shifts, and technical analysis suggests that the outlook for the euro may not be optimistic in the near term. US Dollar: Strength from Political Winds Recent trade activity surrounding the US dollar has gained traction, particularly as the Republican Party appears positioned to exercise substantial influence over the economic agenda. With a focus on implementing expansive tax cuts and trimming government spending, the potential for an invigorated US economy grows. This could lead to increased investor confidence in the greenback, bolstering demand and ultimately driving the EUR/USD pair lower. Moreover, support for the US dollar may be further fortified by upcoming economic announcements. Today's schedule is packed with significant economic data, including the unemployment claims, the Federal Funds Rate decision, the FOMC Statement, and the FOMC Press Conference. Each of these factors will provide insight into the health of the US economy and the potential direction of monetary policy, likely impacting the dollar's trajectory. Impact of Trump Tariffs on Europe The economic climate in Europe could face challenges as the repercussions of Trump-era tariffs continue to reverberate. Concerns regarding sluggish growth rates in key Eurozone economies may prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt an even more accommodative stance. Analysts speculate that the ECB could consider cutting interest rates to near zero by 2025 if economic expansion remains tepid. Such a move would further weigh on the euro, making it less attractive to investors compared to a potentially rising dollar. Technical Analysis: Possible Demand Area From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair appears to be approaching another critical demand area. Recent Commitment of Traders (COT) data highlights a contrasting sentiment in the market, with retail traders predominantly holding bearish positions, while "smart money" seems to be accumulating long positions. This divergence can be a strong indicator of upcoming price movements. Analysis of the daily footprint suggests that the price has recently reached and confirmed this demand zone, which may provide a potential reversal opportunity. In line with seasonal forecasting, traders may want to keep an eye on historical patterns that indicate a possible bullish surge. Daily Footprint 6E1! Crafting a Trading Plan Given the myriad of factors at play, traders should align their strategies with their trading rules and risk tolerance. As the economic landscape evolves, the decisions made in the coming days and weeks will be crucial. Monitor Economic Data: Pay close attention to today's economic releases. Positive data could further bolster the USD, while any sign of weakness in the Eurozone could hasten the depreciation of the euro. Watch Technical Indicators: Keep an eye on key support and resistance levels. A sustained move below the current demand area could signal a bearish continuation. Consider Seasonal Trends: Be aware of seasonal patterns that might indicate a potential bullish retracement. Market dynamics can shift quickly, so having a flexible plan is essential. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair is currently under pressure, the interplay between political developments, economic indicators, and technical signals may create opportunities for discerning traders. Staying informed and adaptable is key as the market navigates through this evolving landscape. Previous Idea closed: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Take the Red Pill: The EURO COT Long Play RevealedTake the Red Pill: The EURO Long Play Revealed "Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know, you can't explain, but you feel it." – Morpheus Most traders move blindly through the markets, buying and selling on impulse, on what they think they know. But for those who understand how to read deeper signals, patterns begin to emerge—patterns that separate the merely active from the truly informed. Right now, if you're willing to look, Commitment of Traders (COT) data is showing us something intriguing about the EURO. This is your red pill: a glimpse into how those in the know see beyond the chart. The Setup: A Commercial Long Play Behind the scenes, commercials—the ones who have true skin in the game—have loaded up on longs, reaching a 26-week extreme in positioning. Not only that, but they're holding their longest exposure in three years, a sign that those with the best intel in the market believe in a coming shift. Meanwhile, the "small specs," often driven by emotion rather than insight, have gone nearly max-short. Historically, this group isn't just wrong; they’re almost predictably wrong. The result? A textbook setup. But if you’re looking to take advantage, know this: jumping in without discipline is how people get burned. We wait for a confirmed trend change on the daily timeframe. Nothing less. Because only the disciplined get to see beyond the shadows and reap the rewards. The Undervaluation: Gold, Treasuries, and the EURO’s True Position If you look at the EURO in comparison to gold and treasuries, something stands out—it’s undervalued. This doesn’t show up in headlines or make for easy soundbites, but for those who know how to look, it’s a flashing signal. And there’s a seasonal edge, too: the EURO’s tendency to rally through mid-December. It’s another puzzle piece that, when added up with positioning extremes and market sentiment, paints a picture that only a few will truly grasp. Supplementary Signals: Layers of Confirmation For those still seeking confirmation, additional indicators are lining up: %R, Stochastic, and even bullish momentum divergence are signaling alignment. But understand this—the market doesn’t reward the impatient. We wait, observe, and move only when the trend change is confirmed on the daily chart. The Truth Beneath the Surface This is no ordinary trade idea. It’s a blueprint to help you see the hidden dynamics that move the market. Those who look only at surface price action may be blindsided by the moves yet to come. But for those willing to see beyond—those ready to know what the COT data, the fundamentals, and the seasonal tendencies are saying—this is a rare opportunity. Now, if you’re ready to see what the rest don’t, follow Tradius Trades. You’ll be one of the few with eyes open, equipped to move with purpose. --- > "I didn’t say it would be easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth."
CME:6EZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
COT Analysis - Currencies - DXY 6E & 6M SET UP FOR TRADES!COT analysis shows that the Euro and Mexican peso are nicely setup for longs upon a confirmation of bullish trend change on the daily. The only "fly in the ointment" here is that the DXY commercial positioning is still very bullish, which is a bit of a mixed signal. Ideally, we like to see the DXY & majors give opposing signals simultaneously. That being said, 6E & 6M are nicely setup for longs upon a confirmed daily bullish trend change. Have a good week.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: EURUSD EURUSD is at an OTE level currently, and may find support for higher prices. I am on the lookout for BUY setups, as I do not want to take shorts in this market until prices breaks below 1.0940. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6E1!Long
by RT_Money
1
EUR/USD Faces Renewed Pressure as USD StrengthensThe EUR/USD pair has recently faced renewed downward pressure after reaching year-to-date (YTD) peaks beyond the 1.1200 level. This shift in momentum comes amid a resurgence in buying interest for the US Dollar (USD), which has dampened the pair's ability to sustain its upward trajectory. Several factors have contributed to the recent rebound in the US Dollar. Mixed data from advanced Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) in the euro area have weighed against the continuation of the EUR/USD pair's march northward. This economic data suggested that the eurozone's recovery may not be as robust as previously anticipated, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the EUR. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently released its Accounts, revealing that policymakers saw no immediate need to lower interest rates last month. However, they warned that a new discussion on the matter could take place in September as high rates continue to impact economic growth in the region. From a technical perspective, the Euro has reached a strong supply area, as indicated by the EUR futures chart. This zone has acted as a significant barrier to further gains, and the pair’s inability to break above this level suggests the presence of substantial selling pressure. You can observe this technical resistance in the EUR futures chart on TradingView EUR Futures Chart Should the price manage to break through this supply zone, the next potential area for a reversal could be around the 1.3800 mark. However, this is contingent on several factors, including the broader economic landscape and the relative strength of the US Dollar. Looking ahead, the US economy is expected to outperform Europe in the long term, suggesting that any prolonged weakness in the Dollar might be temporary. The stronger economic fundamentals in the US, coupled with potential policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve, could provide additional support for the USD, thereby exerting further pressure on the EUR/USD pair. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair has shown some bullish tendencies in recent weeks, the combination of mixed economic data, technical resistance, and the potential for a stronger US Dollar suggests that the path forward could be challenging. Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming economic releases and central bank communications for further clues on the pair's direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Fundamentally Setup Markets For This WeekI have identified the following markets are "set-up" for moves of some significance. This video goes into the fundamental reasons for these trade ideas. NOTE: I am not looking to go long/short these markets immediately. I will wait for a change in trend on the Daily to get involved with these markets. The tools used to identify these trade setups are not timing tools. The tools do give us an idea of how market participants with significant size and intelligence (commercials) are positioning themselves. The tools also give us an idea of sentiment, valuation, seasonality, and also an idea of what the (usually wrong) public/small traders are doing. LONGS: HEATING OIL (HO) GASOLINE (RBOB) MEXICAN PESO (6M) SOYBEANS (ZS) COTTON (CT) SUGAR (SB) SHORTS: EURO CURRENY (6E) JAPANESE YEN (6J) SWISS FRANC (6S) GOLD (GC) 30 YEAR TREASURIES (ZB) Good Luck & Good Trading.
ICEUS:SBV2024
by Tradius_Trades
Shorting EUR/USD Amid Market SpeculationsWe are taking a strategic short position on the EUR/USD pair. The major currency pair has experienced strong gains recently, primarily driven by the US Dollar (USD) being under pressure due to firm market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates in September. Despite this bullish momentum, the EUR/USD pair seems to be approaching a resistance level that could trigger a reversal. This anticipated reversal aligns with our identified Supply area and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. These technical indicators suggest that the pair is poised for a potential downturn. Additionally, our analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, focusing on non-commercial speculators, supports this outlook. The data indicates a possible shift in market sentiment that could favor a bearish move. Coupled with our seasonal forecast, which also points towards a downturn, the confluence of these factors strengthens our case for shorting the EUR/USD pair. In summary, the combination of technical resistance, COT data, and seasonal trends presents a compelling case for a short position on the EUR/USD. We are confident that the alignment of these factors provides a robust foundation for our trading strategy, anticipating a reversal from the current levels. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURO in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6E1!Short
by FOREXN1
5
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 10.06.2024 - 14.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post. ! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade. Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
by Forex_Hoby
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 3 - 7.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post. ! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade. Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
by Forex_Hoby
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 27 - 31.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post. ! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade. Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
by Forex_Hoby
2
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 20 - 24.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post. ! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade. Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
by Forex_Hoby
EUR Futures Look Bullish - Target 1.09095I'm bullish on EUR until 1.09095 is reached (high of the previous 2W candle). Currently intermediate timeframe (h8) is delivering bearish (closing below lows of up close candles). In this scenario, I look for entries when price trades into H8 fractal swing lows. If we see a bullish CISD on entry timeframe (M30) after sweeping an H8 low, I'll take a long. Alternatively, if h8 has a bullish cisd, I will look for entry timeframe triggers on pullbacks into bullish arrays.
CME:6EM2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
EURO (EURUSD, 6EM2024)... BULLISH!Bias is Bullish. Price traded through bearish PD Arrays, respecting bullish ones. Currently, price is in a +FVG, hence the bullish bias. Price is very close to the DOL, a swing high. Price may tap the +FVG more than once before heading higher. Expectations are for the DOL to be swept next week, as price grinds upward. Thank you for viewing! Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! May profits be upon you.
CME:6E1!Long
by RT_Money
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024We continue the experiment with a wider range of zones. Let's see if we can guess the places to search for deals for the week ahead. Last week in the related ideas at the bottom of the post. During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a trade is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. The next morning I adjust the levels based on the new data and publish a new post. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from CME. Used as areas of interest for trade. When approaching a level, a “reaction” is expected, which can be traded for both a rebound and a breakout. The worst option is if we revolve around the level in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to enter into a continuation of the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. Don’t forget to like Rocket, Comments and Subscribe!!!
by Forex_Hoby
EUR/USD Outlook: Interplay of Technical and Fundamental FactorsThe EUR/USD pair benefited from modest selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and concluded Monday's session in positive territory. Recent days have witnessed a notable selling pressure with low volume observed in both the cross and the future of the EUR. Later in the session, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will unveil the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April. Market expectations are poised for a 0.3% monthly increase in PPI, following a 0.2% uptick in March. A stronger-than-anticipated rise in monthly PPI could bolster the USD, potentially prompting a downturn in EUR/USD. Conversely, a softer-than-expected PPI print leading up to Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data might fuel a risk rally, weakening the USD and facilitating EUR/USD's upward momentum. From a technical standpoint, analysis reveals a negative delta in the footprint, suggesting potential targets in areas of price imbalance. This indicates a possibility for the price to decline to fill the void in transaction volumes. EURO FX Futures
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 6 - 10.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a trade is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. The next morning I adjust the levels based on the new data and publish a new post. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from CME. Used as areas of interest for trade. When approaching a level, a “reaction” is expected, which can be traded for both a rebound and a breakout. The worst option is if we revolve around the level in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to enter into a continuation of the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. Don’t forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!!
by Forex_Hoby
EUR (6E1!, EURUSD) Taking a BEARISH TurnLooking for an Internal to External move this week. From the Weekly -FVG to the low at 1.06285. The early part of the week may see price head up to sweep LQ before turning over and dropping. * Should the 4H show a bearish break of structure with a strong close, it may provide an early signal that the retracement has ended and sells should be sought. LIKE, COMMENT or SUBSCRIBE if you like and want to see more analysis. Thank you for viewing!
CME:6E1!
by RT_Money