EUR Futures Are Pulling Back Ahead Of FOMC – What’s Next?Exploding consumer demand has helped usher in material and labor shortages that are not only driving up costs and fanning inflation worries, they are also reducing manufacturing output.
Fundamental analysis
That means fewer pieces, parts, and finished goods sold all the way through entire supply chains. Companies may be able to offset higher costs and lost sales through price hikes on some things, but bigger-ticket items like cars, appliances, and even houses will be more difficult to make up for in growth. Lost sales for the service industry really can’t be made up, so businesses like restaurants or hotels that are understaffed may not be able to fully capitalize on the reopening boom.
The reopening is also bringing a shift in how consumers spend their money. Walmart, for instance, reported e-commerce sales growth of +37% for the first quarter, which was down from a +69% gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts are taking this and other reports of slower online sales as confirmation that the blistering growth witnessed during pandemic lockdowns is not sustainable.
Investors have largely expected online shopping growth would moderate this year but are still trying to figure out what the “new normal” might be. Before the Covid-19 crisis, e-commerce sales were growing at about a +15% annual rate. Additionally, investors are unsure whether lower online sales will be offset by in-store sales growth. There is some expectation that more consumer spending will migrate to the services sector as travel, dining, and live entertainment all become options again.
Hence, the still ongoing rotation out of some of the pandemic darlings and into sectors and companies that might have more growth potential as the economy reopens.
FOMC “minutes”
The economic highlight will be the “minutes” from the Federal Reserve’s April FOMC meeting. The bank last month left its extremely accommodative monetary policy unchanged, saying the U.S. economy still needed to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals.
Keep in mind, one of those goals is “full employment” which the Fed has never really provided a hard number for. However, after March’s jobs report showed a surprisingly strong +916,000 gain, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did say he wanted to see a “string of months” showing the same strength. As we know, the April employment report only showed a gain of +266,000 new jobs.
At the same time, there are growing concerns that the Fed is “behind the curve” in regard to inflation with higher prices now popping up all over the place. Analysts will be looking for hints in the minutes that Fed members may be shifting their stance a bit or perhaps getting more nervous about inflation.
I should also note, there will likely be an unusually high level of scrutiny given to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index today.
Technical analysis
The EUR futures tested 1.2240 resistance which has been bulls’ swing target for some time. There is no surprise we see a pullback. It is advised to reduce exposure ahead of the FOMC meeting. The new direction will be clear once the market digests the FOMC statement. In general, failure to break the resistance mentioned above can bring the price down to ma50 and ma100 on the 4h chart. And if it finds support there, we can expect a new higher high near 1.23100
6e1
TRADE IDEA: /6E JANUARY 8TH 1.195/1.2 LONG PUT VERTICALMetrics:
Max Profit: 337.50
Max Loss: 287.50
Break Even: 1.1977
Notes: A bearish assumption directional shot at resistance. Alternatively, FXE January 15th 111/113 long put vertical, 1.05 max profit, .95 debit/max loss, break even 112.05 vs. 112.13 spot (although it's trading above that pre-market).
6E Downfall of Price is Supported by Eisting Bullish Position1. The existing long position that had placed or accumulated at heavy transaction price zone will protect their long position when price retrace near to that zone.
2. The smart money place for short position will potential take profit (i.e: buy order) above the heavy transaction price zone
Both above accumulated lots of buy order to fueled the bullish momentum to the next spike.
Weekly EUR forecast. Explained. Potential entriesEUR Futures are still consolidating. Last week the Department of Labor gave instructions on how to implement the executive order that partially extends federal unemployment benefits signed by President Donald Trump. But it was not enough to get a dollar out of consolidation. Fundamentally, nothing changed for both currencies. EUR has clear support and resistance levels. To avoid higher risks, it makes perfect sense to trade breakout of the range:
potential longs above 1.1920
potential shorts below 1.1690
We previously discussed EUR set up for a decline. Based on COT reports commercials are selling currency. It usually indicates the market is topping. Besides, seasonal indicator points move down. The evaluation model shows EUR is overvalued. With that in mind, we prefer to look for and take sell signals. But price action is “the king” and we will follow it whatever side it breaks. Just use proven entry techniques to open a trade and don’t rush.
Coming sell in EUR. Explained Early this week the market can test 1.1630 and later bounce for a few days to form a signal for sellers. There is no need to hurry and pick up a trade now. Let the market do its thing and form some pattern to get clear entry with a good risk/reward ratio. The main reason for potential weakness is the bullish setup in DXY. I made a post about it. Below you can see a summary of DXY analysis
We have discussed previously a potential rally in the American dollar. Now we are getting really close to the potential entry. However, accumulation is weak. That means it will take another week or two to get a signal. Accumulation builds momentum. That’s why it is so important. We have very strong fundamental setup for DXY rally:
COT – commercials are heavily long
Evaluation model – the dollar is undervalued
COTSI Index – very high
Intermarket forecast – upside.
We need a technical signal to confirm the coming rally. It always takes some time to get one once we have a fundamental setup. So, likely we will see a bit more of a rally coming in a few sessions, followed by a pullback. It will give the dollar enough time to build momentum and form a signal to go long.
EUR is setting for declineSome time ago we have talked about EUR COT reports. Swing traders should focus on taking sell signals. Commercials are short this market, while retailers are heavily buying. We saw almost the same in 2018 before a big decline in EUR. I believe the story repeats. However, we don’t have a good entry yet. I have a feeling price will make false breakup before the trend starts. But the market doesn’t have to follow my feelings )) Besides, the evaluation index shows EUR is overvalued. Short-term traders can continue to trade in the range with tight stop loss. But our main focus is on taking sell signals, like swing failure, etc. Many data will be released the coming week, including retail sales, Empire State, Philadelphia Fed, and June University of Michigan consumer sentiment reports scheduled along with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Possibly it will be driving power to break out of the range. We have to monitor COVID cases in the USA and government response to it. At the moment it is one of the most important fundamental factors for the American dollar and it will have an impact on EUR.