6j Yen Short SwingsI have been watching the Yen carefully since July. This upswing has provided a healthy reset but current price action represents the tide turning back to the short side which fundamentally supports Japans struggle to maintain currency value. The risk/reward makes sense to me and I'm actively watching for swing shorts with .006700 target. The daily chart is presenting a great entry point as old support now becomes resistance.
I'll post the entry if/when it's made. Timeline is before November (US Elections)
6j
COT Strategy - SHORT JAPANESE YENDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for new short trades in 6J if we get additional bearish entry triggers (this week a divergence entry triggered short).
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Downside Ahead for JPY - COT Strategy Sell DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
JPY (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6J if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. Small Specs at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. All this is bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries & Gold
OI Analysis: Upmove since July has seen CM's quickly shift to strong short position = bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down into October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV & Stochastic Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
How to track the US dollar's direction?A lowering of U.S. interest rates may be necessary, but the downside risk is a weaker USD. And a significantly weaker dollar may cause inflation to creep back up again.
Today, I will share a little hack on how to track and preempt the U.S. dollar’s direction.
To conclude:
Long-term - Down
Mid-term - Range to a breaking point
Currencies Futures and Options
Minimum fluctuation:
0.00005 per AUD increment = $5.00
0.00005 per CAD increment = $5.00
0.00005 CHF increment = $6.25
0.000050 per Euro increment = $6.25
0.0001 per GBP increments = $6.25
0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
BOJ Rate Hike Causes Unrest in the Stock Markets: What next?When the Bank of Japan hiked its interest rate at the end of July, global markets went into turbulence.
We will discuss what currency carry trade is, why the yen carry trade has caused this global volatility, and, importantly, whether the market will resume its uptrend.
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Japanese Yen Futures
Ticker: 6J
0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Japan Currency Crash After Rate Hike - Inflation cycle begin A brand-new cycle for the Japanese economy is in the making with a higher inflation to come and a weaker yen.
When the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years, the Japanese Yen instead of strengthening, it crashed.
Micro Japanese Yen Futures
Ticker: MJY
Minimum fluctuation:
0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25
Japanese Yen Futures & Options
Ticker: 6J
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
USDJPY Mid-Term Bearish Expectation/Analysis The explanation for this analysis is in the text on the chart
This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels. I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy, which includes the:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
PD: excuse my poor english
JAPANESE YEN Futures (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.0071705
Pivot: 0.0070675
Support : 0.0069015
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and RSI is showing an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price may rise from the pivot at 0.0070675 where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st resistance at 0.0071705 where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.0069015 where the swing low support is.
Fundamentals: The DXY is droppind, combined with the positive BSI manufacturing index and PPI Y/Y, we would hold a bullish bias.
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 0.0072125
Pivot: 0.0070865
Support : 0.0070165
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator, and within the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 0.0070865 where the current price and 78.6% fibonacci projection are to the 1st support at 0.0070165 where the 100% fibonacci projection is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.0072125 where the previous swing lows and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Japan's Average Cash Earnings y/y and Household Spending y/y are out today, both of them are lower than the forecast.
6J JPY USD Bullish SharkAfter news release for US Dollar, 6J Futures JPY USD seems to be developing a more clear market structure and completing a bullish Shark formation. When price reaches the marked zone it would be wise to look at price action behavior around the area to see if price provides us with a valid entry for long opportunities.
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES 6J! ( Swing )Probability:65%
We are in a downtrend but we have a good probability ( maybe > 65%) the Market will keep going up and cut the TP
TP & SL : on the Chart
Bonus: if the a Green Candle Cut with Force the TP ( u can take a second position and buy again and choose your own TP & SL)